NewColtsFan

Agree to disagree? Huh? I’ve been saying what you said in most every Taylor post I’ve made. That the odds are low (not zero) that he’d screw up his career. I think we just agreed. 100 percent.

I agree, it’s not a good look. But it comes at the time when Taylor likely wouldn’t be playing even if he was cleared to. If he was cleared, the coaches likely wouldn’t have Taylor doing much of anything right now. Why put Taylor on the field now and risk injury at this early point of the pre-season? So no real harm is being done now. Let’s see what happens with JT come Aug 1, which is the middle of next week. If he’s not back by then we may be having an entirely different conversation. Fair enough?

It doesn’t make it worse for Taylor. It makes it better. Because decisions don’t have to be made today or tomorrow or even next month. That takes pressure off. As for the agent, that’s a separate issue. The only person whose opinion counts is Taylor and not anyone else. Hopefully Taylor is working with his agent to try and lower the temperature and not raise it. I don’t rule out the agent could make things worse. I hope he’s better than that.

Taylor and Barkley are NOT on the same time table. Barkley had no contract and was dealing with a possible tag. Taylor was drafted two years later and still has a year to go on his rookie contract. He does NOT have to do a deal now. He might want one, but he does NOT have to have it this year.

FWIW….. I don’t have a computer and can’t link from my phone. But there’s a story on the internet — I think it’s an interview with Pro Football Talk — where Luck says the shoulder injury that he struggled to recover from was NOT the snowboard accident. He says he had that same injury numerous times in his college and pro career and recovered from it every time. The injury that was the most damaging was the shoulder injury sustained in a road game against Tennessee. There’s a shot I think we’ve all seen where Luck is standing on the sidelines and a teammate pats him on his chest and Luck noticeably winces badly in pain. THAT was the key injury that took so long to recover from. The two injuries were completely different. Unrelated. Luck says every doctor he’s ever spoken to assured him the snowboard accident was nothing. That it was the injury in the Tennessee game that did the real damage. If you do a search and key in…. “Andrew Luck, snowboard accident, shoulder” you will find what you’re looking for. It’s a print article not a talking head interview. IMO, the shoulder injury has taken on a life of its own. People are still angry with Luck for that. The truth of it has been completely lost. The downside of internet fan message boards….

This is true. Ballard said so in his recent 21 minute news conference. CB stressed the team is coming off a 4-win season season and there’s a new coaching staff. So some time is needed to see how the new system meshes with the players. The loser in this scenario is clearly Taylor. Ballard tried to leave the door open a little by saying he’s open to signing Taylor DURING the season. Now whether things work out fir this to happen is another story. A lot of things would have to go right. Plus Irsay would have to agree, and I’m not convinced he’s ready to do that.

Taylor has one more year on his rookie deal. He gets $4.3 mill this year. If you want to add one more year to cover 2024, it would likely be a number that the Colts wouldn’t pay. Right now, it looks like he’d be tagged next year at roughly $11-$12m so if he’s going to sign, there has to be an incentive. Otherwise, why do it? Hypothetically, the Colts could sign a one year extension for $15 mill and give JT $5 mill now as a signing bonus and a $10 mill salary in 2024. If these numbers are off somewhat, fine, they can get tweaked. But it’s hard to see Irsay agreeing to do that. He’s not happy with the agent community and I’m sure he scored big points with 31 other owners with his recent comment. Right now the temperature around Taylor and the Colts is way too hot, it needs to be lowered. That likely won’t happen before the season begins. Balllard said publicly he’s willing to sign a deal DURING the season. Hopefully Taylor is healthy and the line returns to form. That would be very helpful to both sides.

Not even a little, Nick. Leveon Bell is a cautionary tale on what NOT to do, on how NOT to handle your business. Bell didn’t play at all in 2018, and didn’t collect one dollar of a $14m salary in the prime of his career. He never recovered his playing form because he’s not the brightest bulb. Yes, he fleeced the NYJ in 2019, and was in such bad shape and didn’t play well, he was soon enough not a NY Jet anymore. He could have made much much more had he handled his business well. He didn’t. Bell made a series of bad decisions which ultimately cut his own career short and he never made what he could have made had he been smarter. And I’m sure the situation is much worse for RB’s today. The situation is dramatically worse. As you know, the market has collapsed in the last 2-3 years. I’m hopeful that JT handles his business far better than Bell handled his 4-5 years ago.

You’re looking for a 100 percent rule. A guy like Mahomes is an exception to the rule. He also has a weapon like Kelcie.

I don’t think you even know my position even though I’ve posted it all over this thread. 1. I’ve repeatedly said in this thread and this off-season that if the Colts can’t come to terms, I’m fine if the Colts tag him for two years and move on in 26. 2. I just posted in the last 36 hours that the days of 5-year contracts for RBs for any team are over. And I added that a 4-year is unlikely but possible but only if you can make the dead cap hit in Y4 nearly zero. 3. I’ve said most RBs will likely be signed to second contracts of 2-3 years. 4. I’ve also said that I’m fine if the Colts sign Taylor to a 3-year deal for decent money. 3/40. The key as always are the guarantees. But the Colts have some flexibility with Richardson’s rookie contract and the salary cap going way up for several years. 5. It was revealed late tonight that the Colts have yet to offer Taylor an official contract. Looks like Irsay is playing hardball. Hope this clarifies my position.

Again, I was responding to a poster who floated the possibility that Taylor might sit out rather than accept a Tag or Two. I was explaining that good, smart, character kids typically don’t make bad career choices. Saquan Barkley just did a 180 and negotiated a one year deal. SB is a good smart high character kid. No one ever thought of Leveon Bell in those terms. And Bell ruined his career with a long holdout. I don’t see JT making such a mistake. Good, smart, character kids make more pragmatic choices like Barkley just did. Hope that clarifies.

The fact that Mahomes can exceed with no name WRs doesn’t prove that the NFL doesn’t value WRs more than RBs. You had to go back almost 20 years to talk about Blair White. And you forgot that Peyton had TWO HoF WRs named Harrison and Wayne plus a top tight end named Clark. That’s not a good argument.

Goodness gracious, do you know how far back you’re going? Almost nothing current. And you’re not coming close to debunking anything. 32 Teams and the NFL disagree with you. You can call it unfair, but that’s a different issue.

Are those WRs making any money? No. Whether you buy it or not, the NFL does, and that’s all that matters.

The NFL has spoken loud and clear. A good wide receiver like Pittman is worth more than a top running back. As this community talked about a year ago, Pittman’s market is easily in the mid to upper teens, maybe even $20m per. A year ago, in better times for Taylor, his market was thought to be $14-15m, so less than Pittman. Now, with the floor for Taylor collapsing, the difference is even sharper. So yes, Pittman is worth more than Taylor in the broader NFL market. It may not be right or fair, but that’s what the market is saying. By the way, I wouldn’t rule out Ballard trying to sign JT to a multi-test deal, I’m just not sure if Irsay will let that happen. NOTE: a new post now says Irsay admits the Colts have NOT made Taylor an official offer. That, to me, is disappointing.

The point of the Tag was to gave a compromise option so that players weren’t holding out for a better contract and teams weren’t locking players out. I guess calling the system broken is in the eye of the beholder. It’s clearly imperfect but perhaps good enough, fair enough to both sides.

I was guessing the $6.5 reference was connected to what Sanders received from Carolina. If by replaceable, you’re factoring in salary, that wouldn’t happen this year with JT only making $4.3m. The discussion would come in 24 and 25 when the Colts could use the Tag. But note, that a number of teams have tagged their top RB, (Barkley, Jacobs and one other I believe?) so some NFL teams think Tagging a top RB is still a good idea. I don’t think this is as cut and dry as you seem to think it is.

FWIW: I’ve re-read this post. And I’m a little puzzled. As you know I try to read your posts. I believe in the last few weeks you tossed around numbers for Taylor like 3/40 and 3/36 and Tag x2. Interesting, because those are my numbers too. Yet your last sentence is an argument for NOT paying Taylor at all. Doesn’t that feel like an intellectual argument position to take? What’s the point of expressing you’d like to keep him and pay him, yet sum up by saying the stats say the best decision is let him go. (I’m assuming after this season?).

The reason the offense didn’t get better had nothing to do with Taylor. It had to do with QB play. It had to do with the play of the offensive line. I think your argument falls under the old saying…. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. This feels like an intellectual argument. Can you make the argument that Taylor isn’t as valuable as one might think? Yes, you can. I just feel like the things you point to have a counter-argument.

Last year, Taylor had not one, but two ankle sprains, one of which was a high ankle sprain which needed surgery and which you conveniently forget to mention. And he was mostly running behind a line which was brutally bad. Again, no mention of that by you. So your characterization of Taylor in 22 is that it was just another year and you blame him for not lifting the offense. In 21, Taylor led all RBs in most runs if 10 or more yards…. Most over 20, most over 30, most over 40, most over 50, most over 60 and most over 70. But you characterize his season as a few long runs in the middle third of the season. The middle third was 8-2 for the Colts, which included wins over Buffalo where the Colts threw only 12 passes and a win over New England where the Colts threw only 11 times. The Colts had a poor passing game, Taylor was the primary weapon and you attempt to downplay him. His rookie season, you could take nearly 200 yards off his last game and he’d still have a 1,000 yard season. Marlon Mack didn’t reach 1,000 yards until his second season. He only had a few hundred as a rook. So we see Taylor in almost opposite terms.

Using your words…. There are apparently only two rankings… Elite and not-elite. Taylor is an elite running back. And he’s acceptable in every other category. People who do this for a living judge Taylor much much higher than you and others here. No one here is saying Taylor deserves market setting money. People are slotting JT roughly around 3rd. Below McCaffrey and Kamara money ($16m) but above the next group which is roughly 12-12.5m per. There’s a gap there. Taylor supports seem willing to offer around $13m per. And I think all have said if JT won’t accept that, then we’d be fine tagging Taylor twice. You, on the other hand, recently posted that you’d offer $6.5m. Why waste time offering an insult that would be instantly rejected. You seem to think Taylor and Sanders are interchangeable. I don’t. We see this completely different.

My points about good, smart and character was a response that Taylor might not play under the tag. I was explaining that I didn’t see that happening with Taylor. And for the record, Taylor hasn’t NOT honored his contract. He might. But it hasn’t happened yet.

In 2020 the Colts were 11-5. In 2021 the Colts were 9-8. I think the idea that JT wasn’t a big part of both seasons collapses under its own weight. I think you’ve badly over-thought this. Now if you factor in salary, then that changes the discussion and my position would be closer to what I’ve seen you post. But on talent alone, I think the stats you used give stat arguments a bad name. Sorry, a rare disagreement for you and me.

I literally wrote the sentence “I’m taking money out of the equation.”

Think of all the big sexy names of corners posters have been throwing around for weeks if not months. Now, when push comes to shove, we sign someone who no one has ever heard of. Maybe the Colts turn a nobody into a somebody? Wouldn’t be the first time…