EastStreet
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Posts posted by EastStreet
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12 hours ago, CR91 said:
Mocks have him going between 15-20. If hes there at 18, colts can move up and still keep both second round picks. Draft calcutor shows the 18th pick is worth our 1st 3rd and 4th round picks which is not too steep and we can always trade down from 34 to get back a pick if we want to.
last 4 or 5 mocks i saw from this week had him gong 6, 8, 11, and 14. CBSx2, SBN, SI, NFL.com
would like to have him, but i don't know if i'd part with a 3rd round pick + others. I just don't see it after picking Houston.
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2 hours ago, Mel Kiper's Hair said:
I'm deeply offended by this post! I totally disagree! Mel needs to spend more time getting that beautiful head of hair ready for the draft. Haha
I think he should let his hair make the picks :-)
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1 hour ago, Rally5 said:
I remember that Lions game, it was bad but it seems more the exception than the rule but I hear ya! I hadn't thought of him as a slot to be fair, that could be a legitimate match up issue. I do think he can play on the outside but frankly whatever works is good by me. My gut says we're not drafting a WR early, so to me, only Cain (in theory) has the raw goods to start over him at X but let's see what the draft brings! Thanks for the feedback!!!
I'll take wins however they come! And I hope DF turns it around and balls out. I'd love to be wrong.
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4 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:
The Falcons and Bucs both had three WRs with 800+ yards and missed the playoffs. The Giants had a "WR2" with 800+ yds and it didn't win them many games.
Guess what teams didn't have a "WR2" with 800+ yds? Pats, Saints, Bears, Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys, Seahawks, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, and the COLTS. That's 11 of the 12 playoff teams. The Rams are the ONLY team that had more than one WR with 800+ yds and made the playoffs.
So no we don't. Your 800 yard happiness is just an arbitrary number with nothing to back it up. You're going to be very unhappy if a second WR with 800+ yds is your threshold for happiness.
Pats had Edelman with 800+ in only 12 games, Gordon with 700+ with only 11 games, Gronk with almost 700 with all his injuries, and a rb (White) with almost 800 receiving yards. Their depth (Hogan) had over 500 yards. Aside from Ebron, the Colts didn't have another guy above 500 yards.
Out of the teams you listed, I've listed anyone (their rank) in the top 100 receiving.
Better receiving corps than the Colts
Pats 28, 46, 53, 84 (even with injuries) + #5 Rushing Team
Chargers 15, 56, 58. 96 + #9 D
Rams 13, 14, 71, 77 + #3 Rush
Eagles 16, 29. 41, 87
Chiefs 4, 10, 86,
Ravens 48, 60, 66, 81 (even with a bad QB) + #2 Rush + #1 D
Bears 36, 52, 75 (even with Trubisky) + #11 Rush + #3 D
On par receiving corp with Colts
Colts 12 TY, 39 Ebron, 99 Rogers
Cowboys 43, 54, 76, 89, + #10 Rush + #7 D (you could argue they are better/deeper)
Saints 6, 49, + #6 Rush
Perhaps worse than Colts
Seahawks 22, 64, + #1 Rush
Texans 2, 90 (Fuller who got injured) + #8 Rush
800 is absolutely just a number. I'll take a couple WRs that hit 700, or even 600. 800 was a number I pulled as it's represents top 32 production. We're paying DF as a top 20 guy (top 13 if he hits a 1000). PF ranked us as the 22nd best receiving corp going into last year. NFL.com lists us as one of the teams that require a true #2.
I'll be happy to win a SB in any fashion. I don't however see it happening with our current WR unit given our rushing attack. Luck is Ferrari. He's a franchise guy you build a team around, and give tools too.
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3 hours ago, CR91 said:
interesting, but i don't see him falling past 15, and I don't see the colts using the draft capital needed to move up to get him.
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11 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:
I could care less about stats. The Colts could rush for 300 yds and throw for only 10 yds to the FB in a win, and I'd be happy. If Funchess blocks well for the RBs in a win, then he's earning his paycheck.The only stat that matters is in the W-L column.
I'll be happy if the Colts win games.
That's all great, and you can say things like the above about one game, or even a few, but on the season we need an 800+ yard guy. The Colts WR position group aside from TY was one of the worst in the league in terms of individual rankings. Luck had to work way too hard to do what he did, and he simply needs another legit guy. If we get that via the draft, or via DF I'll be happy. But, someone needs to be that guy. Luck is a sports car driving on only two high performance tires.
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11 hours ago, Superman said:
Good points. I didn't look up his snap counts, but I figured he was one of the highest on the team. The injury and the position switch are obvious factors, also.
Still, it will take more film study than I've done, as well as actual scouting and talking to coaches and people who know/understand his circumstances, to get a handle on what he can do and what his ceiling is. Does he work hard, does he respond well to coaching, is he dedicated to his craft, why do these inconsistencies pop up in his film, how does he work in the weight room, etc.
there were some questions early about his effort, but that mostly revolved around his interests outside of football (link below). he was the class prez, did some international intern stuff, etc.. kid is really smart academically, but could have spent more time focusing on football. by all accounts, he's a very hard worker, just was doing way too much extraneous stuff. per the staff, that all changed going into his senior year, and he started taking football, and his NFL potential seriously. i hate saying it, but he was a true "student" athlete lol.
and keep in mind he came to ND as an OT. overall, i think the kid has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride. recruited as OL, changed to DL. played DT, then NT, then DT. went through 3 different DCs (BVG, Elko, Lea) with a huge scheme change in year 3, and two different position coaches. he had that little incident vs USC his soph year which I think impacted him. spent a bunch of time abroad, and on student office. then had the injury his last year when he was finally focused on FB.
if he's truly serious about football, which i think he is, i think some normalcy will be really good for him. if he had some truly good "rush" coaching, i think he could be on another level.
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14 hours ago, Rally5 said:
Well if you've been studying him since college that would be hard to argue, so fair enough. The stampede blue video really doesn't show a guy with a problem with letting the ball get in on him. The video actually shows him dropping passes where he gets into awkward positions in short passing routes. There's an out route, a sliding slant route, and an end zone ball where's he's running backwards (poor route really). Frankly, the narrative doesn't fit the video whatsoever. I would like to see a video of him dropping balls getting in on him because I couldn't find any examples of it. Sometimes guys get pinned with a reputation. Now, you've watched him for years which has value and thank you, based on what's out there the guy has amazing hands, I'm sure every drop as a Colt will end up here. BTW, I'm in Falcon country too...
He does have terrific hands (sometimes), and will make some crazy acrobatic catches. I used to worry playing UM when he was there. I remember 2013 at UM and he had a great one handed grab, but overall wan't that big of threat IIRC. Gallon was a huge stud that game I think. It was a down year, with not a great ND team that year. He had a better year in 2014, but ND destroyed them in SB. After 2013, I thought he'd be a 1000 yard guy in 2014, but he just kind of stalled out. IMO he should have stayed at TE instead of jumping to WR.
Drop highlights are typically hard to find lol unless someone is roasting a guy on twitter or something like that. I remember watching the Panthers/Lions game last year when he had 4 or 5 drops. I wasn't watching closely enough to diagnose, but I know the fans were pretty brutal. He also took some heat for giving up a lot on plays at times, but honestly that doesn't worry me as much as the drops. Reich won't tolerate that kind of stuff.
Regardless, it's a new year, new team, new QB, and hopefully a fresh start. Even without the drop issue, I just don't like the thought of him at X. I do like the thought of him in the slot though. I'd love having TY at Z, an early draft pick (or Cain) at X, and Funchess working as a big slot opposite Ebron. That line up would be pretty hard to defend if the X was legit and kept doubles away from TY.
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56 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
Apologies again.... it's more than 48 hours since you posted and I'm just now getting back to you. Sorry, wasn't deliberate. Life has been getting in the way WAY too much lately.
This was an interesting study you linked. I've not heard or seen it before. Is this the first time someone has done this? Or has this been going on for some time? Just curious.
You can imagine my what my eyes and chin did when I read that Walter Football was listed as 2nd. I'm not a fan, and so I'm sure my face did this....
Typically when WF talks about players, it'll give a player roughly a 2/3-round window of being drafted. It might say, could be drafted in rounds 1/2. Or 2/3. Or, and here's where they really get me... rounds 2-4, or rounds 3-5, 4-6. A three round spread is more than 100 picks. It takes almost no skill to get close to that window. You could throw darts blindfolded and do as well. So, I'm a little fuzzy how they did so well on this testing?
Put another way, I joined here in May of 2012, but since 2013, I've been putting out my top-32 players.... and in every draft, that's six, I've gotten a minimum of 24 players right in the first round. NOT, to their specific team, but that they were drafted in the first round. That's 75%. And one year, I got 28 out of 32. And two that I missed were guys that had drug problems and fell to the 2nd round. I think Randy Gregory was one of them. Now, that's doesn't mean I could be the GM of the Colts. I don't think anyone here would sleep well if I were the GM of the Colts. Heck, I'm not sure I would sleep well. In fact, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't.
I guess this is just my way of saying I'm not sure these results mean what you think they mean. We may have to agree to disagree on this. Again, sorry for the delay.
The mocks are graded every year, but most sites do an oversimplified or very bad job of it. As you'll note on the one I linked, it's a thorough grading system giving points for multiple areas.
I'm not sure how else you can take the results though..... The big time talking heads simply aren't as good as you think. The fantasy stuff is a huge business. The competition within fantasy football is cut throat. The guys that lead those sites live and breath it, and their financial well being depends on it. Guys like Kiper are living off the ESPN brand and holding on to their rep from 10+ years ago. I'm not saying Kiper sucks, but he's not as good as many others. I doubt he's half as hungry as the others.
Another guy I want to mention, is Bucky Brooks. He gets all kinds of face time on NFL.com with his mocks, and he's been awful. Just goes to show you, big name and big network doesn't mean accuracy.
I'm not a big fan of Walter either. But for different reasons. I hate he website (resource hog, too many ads). His boards and ranges have big spans, but his actual mocks are pretty decent.
In short, I'm open to guys that are accurate outside of the big networks and traditional talking heads. If you're poo-pooing them just because they are "fantasy" experts, then that's a little silly when they're consistently more accurate than the fading guys like Kiper. I still enjoy Kiper, but I don't put him up on a pedestal anymore.
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39 minutes ago, Rally5 said:
This is interesting because I just watched about an hour of tape on Funchess and not one body catch in fact, it would appear he needs to use his body more in traffic. His hands are so good he catches almost exclusively with them and in traffic get balls batted out of his hands. That's very coachable. Reggie does a great job of explaining how and when to do this. I just did a post on Funchess and to be honest, the guy has special hands. After watching all video I could find I'm somewhat embarrassed I didn't realize just how good he can be.
I'm guessing you watched an hour of highlights... I've watched the guy since college as I pay particular attention to UM because I'm a ND fan. I've also seen a lot of his Pro games given I'm in Falcon country and they are on the TV a bunch here.
I'll say two things. 1) getting balls batted out of your hands is a PBU or pass defended, not a drop. And 2) just about every review of him I've ever read talks about his body catching being an issue.
Here are few
From the pros up through last season, which is actually pretty complimentary overall.
QuoteWhile I believe his hands are better than stats suggest, drops are a big concern. His main issue is consistent use of proper technique, as he allows too many passes to hit his chest. This turns easy catches into incompletions.
There is film that go along with it.
From NFL.com coming out of college
QuotePass-catching is labored. Allows throws into his frame and catches back half of football at times. Tagged with 20 drops over last three seasons. Isn't a lock to high-point a throw and doesn't attack throws.
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58 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
So Carolina is not going to sway the numbers to boost Cam's numbers?
C-mon now?
Watch the game lol. It was brutal. Doesn't impact Cam's numbers one way or another.
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1 minute ago, DerekDiggler said:
re-read my post. i was talking about Ebron.
On Funchess, NBC is probably the last place I'd go for trustworthy stats. Pretty sure his own team credited him with 4 or 5 drops alone in the Detroit/Panthers game in November. Go to PFF or playerprofiler for the best stats, Fox or ESPN for second teir. Fox shows him with 7. PP has him with 11.
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4 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
That all depends on who is grading the drops and catchable balls.
Each web site have different numbers. You can use one web site to make a point while another web site can be used to make a counter point.
It is not an exact science as long as a human makes the judgment.
Sites may differ a bit, but regardless of which site you look at, Ebron has a drop problem. Arguing that is silly. But like I said, his productivity and efficiency metrics make the drop problem something the team can live with. That may not be the case with a guy like Funchess who has a drop problem, but has pretty mediocre productivity and efficiency metrics.
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4 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:
Thank you
doesn't mean that some stat sites aren't more generous than others. NBC for example showing 6, and playerprofiler showing 8 drops for Ebron..... NBC uses STATS, which is pretty generous. They both show Edelman with 8, but disagree on Ebron (delta of 2).
i'd bet however if you look back on the 8, you'd be fine with calling them drops. I believe PFF has him at 8 as well.
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Changing QBs doesn't not always mean a WR will improve. You have to look at the reason for the drops. For instance, Ebron's catch rate / drop rate didn't improve when he came to Indy, but his TD production improved dramatically because the the Colts doubled or tripled his RZ targets from his Detroit days.
Funchess's problem has never been catching inaccurate or hard throws. His problem is his instinct to body catch the ball. That's why he historically has looked like a phenom with an acrobatic catch, then dropped the next one to his numbers. He's actually better when the ball is not thrown at his numbers.
And uncatchable balls are not counted as drops. Advanced stats are typically very generous to the WRs when grading drops.
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Ebron definitely has a drop problem. Advanced stats say he had 9, ranked first in drops, and 4th in drop rate among TEs. But.... he also was #1 in EZ target rate, one of the best in contested catch rates (2nd), and is top 10 in most productivity metrics, and top 10 or 20 in most efficiency metrics.
So I can live with those drops given all the other upside. He has chemistry with Luck, and was a safety blanket given the lack of a legit #2 WR.
Funchess on the other hand has a drop issue, and is pretty mediocre in the productivity and efficiency categories. We didn't really change/improve Ebron's performance, we just used him more in the RZ than Detroit. IMO, Ebron was used brilliantly by the staff as a RZ threat. Funchess can be that type of guy too. I'm just not optimistic on DF between the 20s, which is our biggest need.
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18 minutes ago, a06cc said:
Time to move on from AC if possible.
I think you see how he does this year. I'd take Tyler Roemer late in the draft, and see how he pans out. If he pans out and AC fades, you're fine. If he works out and AC doesn't fade, then you have a decision to make. If AC fades and Roemer doesn't work out, draft a T high next year.
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My guidelines are simple.
Last year, our schedule was 14th (opponent Ds), and 32nd (opponent Os). Our schedule overall is ranked 9th for 2019. We'll play much better Os (7 of top 11 - ATL, KC, LAC, NO, Pitt, TB, CAR), and vs good Ds as well (8 games vs top 12 Ds)
1) We have no gaping holes, so use your best picks on positions that will impact our point differential, and areas that kept us from progressing in the playoffs. Simply put, we need to score more, and combat the raised level of QBs we'll face. So give me iDL and WR (legit X with speed) with the first two picks (26 and 34).
2) Identify high ceiling candidates (with risks) that you know will be there R5 or later. I this case, I'd target OT Tyler Roemer, CB Jordan Brown, and G Alex Bars. Now subtract those positions (OT, G, CB) from the board.
3) With the 59th, 89th, and two 4th round picks, go BPA on S, iLB, TE, RB, Slot. I'd prioritize S, and would be willing to trade a little up if needed to get a guy like Thornhill, CGJ, Thomson, Hooker, or Savage. One of them should be available at 59, but package an 89 or one of the two 4R picks if needed. I'd look for Coney at iLB, Wilson at TE, Snell at RB, and others with the remaining.
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57 minutes ago, Superman said:
I get it with Tillery. He has prototypical 3T traits, with exceptional length and power. Heavy hands, strong punch, strong grip, and when he lands accurately he takes control of the opposing blocker. His push-pull is excellent, his rip is probably his best move, and then he has a club move that he sets up with some quickness in his feet. He used all of these against Notre Dame.
He's significantly improved in these areas from 2017. Makes me wonder what his ceiling is. I see DeForest Buckner, because of the length and power. But Tillery has some lateral agility that I don't remember from Buckner.
There's a question of consistency. The effort question seems answered, but from game to game he seemed different. Maybe it's not fair to compare anything to the Notre Dame game, but I first watched the Michigan game. He still looked good, but he got washed out against the run more often, seemed to have no pass rush plan from down to down, sometimes took himself out of the play because of it... He also faced a lot of double teams in that game.
I'm not certain he will be an effective interior pass rusher in the NFL. He has to improve his consistency, keep his pads down, and learn how to string moves together without getting washed out of his rush lane. I think his power will translate, but that's always a question mark, especially when there are inconsistencies with technique.
As for how he fits with the DL and whether it makes sense to draft him, I don't get the question. We have decent 3T players now. Maybe a nice rotation, depending on how Lewis plays there. But like @stitches said, don't let good be the enemy of great. No one on our team is a great interior pass rusher. Autry had a career high in sacks, but that's not something he's ever done before, so to count on it moving forward would be a mistake. 3T is the most important position in this defense, and we have a couple decent players there, no one great. Even if we did have a great 3T, there's nothing wrong with having two. I'm fine with 8 great DL.
The draft is for adding good young players that can grow and be developed, and hopefully become really good players for your team. Roster mechanics should not prevent you from adding good prospects. The more talent you have, the better your team will be.
I personally cut him a little slack (consistency wise) for three primary reasons. 1) he played with a labrum injury most of the year. Rumor is, it got worse mid season, and his mom actually wanted him to sit out of later games. 2) he switched positions in 2018 but still started off the season with 2 sacks vs scUM. And 3) Even injured, he had the highest snap count of front 4. 220+ more than Boner at NT beside him. In short, he was the work horse, regardless of the early season injury.
Will I don't think of him as an instant pro bowl guy or anything like that, I do think his position flexibility, measurables, and his return to health will make him an instant upgrade on our DL, especially vs the pass (now that opponents have to account for Houston).
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2 hours ago, w87r said:
There is a good chance Rogers sticks, but that tender isn't guaranteed, and he can be cut with no cap penalty.
I'm guessing he'll stick. He improved last year with Luck, and while not a world beater, was pretty reliable. Even if they play Funchess at the slot a lot as a possession guy, Rogers gets much better YAC and is way more reliable in terms of catch rate. If Cain comes back from injury, I see him playing mostly at X, or even behind TY early as the Z (early season).
Short of us taking 2 WRs in the draft, I just don't see him being cut. Even then, there are other guys I'd cut before him. Not saying any of this because I love Rogers or anything. Just that overall, our WR group is unimpressive, and Rogers has more experience/production than most at the slot.
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10 hours ago, shastamasta said:
That's why I took a screen shot of it...cause Funchess is right there next to Grant.
I am optimistic that Ballard gets a WR early. And I wouldn't even be surprised if he grabbed another later (though I would grab that 2nd WR before the end of the 4th round).
I can't say for sure...but I don't think Ballard has any intention of giving Funchess a big contract after this season. He is going to have both Ebron and TY to take care of after this season.
I hope he gets one early as well. There are some interesting project WRs that will be available in later rounds. Hurd is an incredible athlete and was very good but raw after leaving TN and moving to WR from RB. As for an early WR, all I truly want is someone with good hands that can stretch the D opposite TY. Just keeping TY from being double teamed will be huge in itself.
Agree, I just don't see Funchess as a long term guy. He's not a legit vertical X. He'll do well at slot and short to intermediate, but he's a possession guy, not a YAC guy.
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43 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
Yeah...still have no idea what they saw in Grant as a WR...I guess they liked his ability to run a full route tree.
But predictably, he just wasn't very good. Check out his DYAR and DVOA stats from last year...interesting:
Yup. Scary thing is, is that Funchess ranked very close to Grant in both those stats as well.
Wasn't high on Grant, not high on Funchess (at least as the X or WR2). TY was top 10 IIRC in both those stats. Rogers ranked similar to Grant and Funchess.
Really hope they go WR early in the draft. And really hope Cain gets healthy and makes a noise. Our WR group, aside from TY, is incredibly unimpressive. We desperately need a guy that can be a top 30ish kind of guy.
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Like the re-signing assuming the contract was reasonable. He's very solid depth.
I'd love to see the Colts take a chance and use a late round pick on Tyler Roemer. If he can keep his head screwed straight, I think he'll be a stud. I keep confusing him with Pope, the other T from SDSt, who'd be a decent depth guy as an UDFA.
Typically when WF talks about players, it'll give a player roughly a 2/3-round window of being drafted. It might say, could be drafted in rounds 1/2. Or 2/3. Or, and here's where they really get me... rounds 2-4, or rounds 3-5, 4-6. A three round spread is more than 100 picks. It takes almost no skill to get close to that window. You could throw darts blindfolded and do as well. So, I'm a little fuzzy how they did so well on this testing?
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i've only seen one mock of him outside the top 15. neither would shock me falling into the 20s, but i would be a bit surprised.