EastStreet
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Posts posted by EastStreet
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I like Simmons a lot, just not a fan of waiting a year. His off the field issue bothers me, but not enough to keep me from picking him (assuming his interview covered it well). While the injury itself is not a show stopper, it's much harder rehabbing a 300ish lb guy as opposed to someone leaner. And getting back in game shape takes longer.
As for him at NG/DT, he officially played NG at MSU. He was moved around a lot though. Most project him to DT. He like Tillery can both be moved around the interior.
Another thing that concerns me a bit, is how much of his success was because teams were focusing on Sweat. Whenever you have multiple high achieving guys in any unit, their play is raised because of others.
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10 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Sorry, no cigar today.
But don't let that get in the way of being delusional about me being upset.
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2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Obsession with drops? Now that is pretty funny coming from you.
you've brought drops up twice out of the blue in the last week or so. perhaps it's a subconscious problem you can't control. i'm sure it's not you just trolling again... sorry again. i don't mean to upset you.
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1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:
Don't trigger me at all. Matter of fact I find it funny you got bent enough to insult me over it.
On a side note :
Maybe with all the drops this team has our passing game might drop to #7 in the league. What you think?
well, you went drama queen on the "insult" narrative. sorry to upset you.
you should talk to someone about your obsession with drops and you inability to talk about your feelings.
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40 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Well now that you revert to insults you have shown you have no sense of humor.
Not one time have I insulted you. Not the same can be said of you now.
you just admitted to the enjoyment of pulling peoples chains. that's pretty much the definition of a troll. sorry if the word triggers you, or gets you bent.
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I don't see CB as a top 3 need. Definitely not a first round take (but who knows).
Give me Jordan Brown in the late rounds. I think he'll surprise. At worse he'll be great depth, but would likely challenge year 2.
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I'd take him in R3 if he agreed to a diet and workout regimen (tied to pay). Had bad interviews too, so that along with his out of shape condition is probably enough for Ballard to put a line through his name.
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39 minutes ago, Superman said:
I don't think they necessarily do. Something about the draft that we all know but probably don't acknowledge enough is that hitting on a draft pick is partly about getting to the player first.
Like Leonard. Obviously the Colts liked him a lot, and maybe they believed in his speed even though he was injured at the combine, and maybe they valued his length more than other teams, but they probably weren't the only team high on him. They just happened to have two high second round picks, so their draft capital put them in position to take him where they did. It doesn't necessarily mean they saw something in him that other teams missed.
I think the way teams value specific traits and metrics can vary, based on coaching schemes and other variables, but I don't think any team has unlocked the key to finding good players more effectively than other teams. I do think some teams have better draft strategy than others, and valuing picks has something to do with that.
While I loved Leonard, and ecstatic we got him, I was surprised the Colts took him at 36. Most big boards had him outside the top 80, some outside the top 100. Mayock had him at 87...
Just goes to show 1) Ballard doesn't give a sheet what others say, and 2) the experts whiff a lot.
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17 hours ago, stitches said:
Absolutely. The injury risk is a much bigger concern than his production(which this year as you've pointed out was actually pretty good until he got injured) or his 3cone. He was on a path for 1100+ yards and 10+ TDs season. People are acting like it will be some egregious mistake for us to take him at 26. IMO if his health is cleared and he drops to 26, he's one of the receivers that we should be thinking about. And I'm not even his biggest fan. I have 3 receivers ahead of him on my board... and I still like him enough to be OK with picking him at 26 if Ballard deems his injury risk reasonable enough.
Yup. At the end of the day, he's a proven home run hitter with high value..... with a chance to improve route running and be a well rounded stud. Sure he's a bit raw in areas, and sure there's a little concern on the injury front, but that probably isn't enough to keep teams away. I'm not his biggest fan either, but he's a great prospect. I wouldn't shed one tear if the Colts grabbed him at 26. He won't last that long, so moot anyway.
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11 hours ago, CoachLite said:
It's probably not a SQL database. That's sooo last century. It's much more sophisticated than that.
SQL has been around for a long time, but it is still the most widely used (probably by a very large margin) of the relational MSs. They could be using Oracle or IBM, but I doubt it. Doubt they are using any of the smaller DBMS for core data.
While I think the NFL is cutting edge in FB technology, they may still be playing on older DBMS.
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12 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
I like pulling your chain. The novel responses are worth it.
You easily get bent you know.
it's easy to make you look foolish with a few links and a few paragraphs. sometimes it's almost worth it.
but, glad you admit you're nothing more than a troll.
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9 hours ago, stitches said:
I think people are turned off of Metcalf way too much at this point and are using bad arguments to justify it. He's still a 1st round type of receiver on pretty much everybody's board.
Also, keep in mind that the thing that Ballard has said is hardest to evaluate in WRs' transition to the NFL and a thing that is extremely important for a WR according to him is their ability to beat press man. Can you guess who's the receiver in this class that beats press-man the best with his physicality and strength at the LOS? It's Metcalf. So don't be too quick to eliminate him from consideration.
DK is hard to evaluate because of several things. He's a rare mix of speed and size. He had two of his three seasons cut very short because of injury. and.. He was a part of one of the best WR units in CFB (Brown, DKM, and Lodge).
IMO, his development was stifled not only because of the injury, but also because of having Lodge and Brown on the same team. He was asked to an extent to be a one trick pony (the long ball guy) on a team with two other studs. Lodge at Z, and Brown as a slot bully. DK only played in half the games his last year, and IIRC lead both Brown and Lodge. Even in playing only half the games, he still had 5 TDs, while Brown had 6 total for the year, and Lodge 4.
I think he'll polish his route running, which will make him more well rounded. All that can be taught. For a team that wants a pure vertical threat, not sure there is a better one in the draft. I'd be more concerned about his injury history than anything. Can't remember the situation with the foot and neck, but just having two season injuries in 3 years is enough for pause.
1 hour ago, DerekDiggler said:Dumb. Dumb dumb. Taking a wr. Is like I said. DUMB!!!
Taking a WR for us this year is dumb? Or taking a WR in the 1st anytime is dumb?
Personally I don't want a WR at 26, but it's because of I think "need" plus probably talent available means we take an iDL. I'm not in anyway pure-WR in the first averse however.
To me, you draft high dollar guys early to take advantage of the 4 year rookie contract, and/or 5th year option. WR is a high dollar position. If the need matches BPA, I'm happy to have a WR in the 1st. LB and S are the only two positions I think are devalued these days so much that I would not want to take in the 1st. And even in the right situation, I'd take those positions too.
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I voted Jacobs.
Based on all the big boards and ratings, I don't think there is a RB or S worth a first round pick. So those are the only positions I really don't want at 26. I don't like DK, but it's probably moot as I doubt he's there at 26. I don't like Baker either. I'd be fine with Williams, Brown, Fant, or Butler, but I think we'll go iDL regardless.
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13 hours ago, Superman said:
Yeah, we always hear talking heads discussing players who are rising and falling on boards, and that's probably a misnomer. What that probably means is that these people are starting to recognize that teams don't have players rated where the media thought they were rated.
I think the bolded is spot on. the talking heads for the most part aren't doing the work. they're relying on other talking heads, the "buzz", surface stats, etc.. Teams are digging into the nitty gritty. A few sites, mostly fantasy and year around groups, do some good work too, but it's more pure data than fit for scheme, fit for team, fit for need, outlier manipulation, etc..
12 hours ago, Superman said:I appreciate the video's insights on outliers. Nothing revolutionary, but it was nice to hear that concept expressed and exemplified by the team, with reference to Kenny Moore. They're basically saying they would like to have all these boxes checked with regard to physical traits, but when there's a box or two that isn't checked, they look to see if something else might offset that deficiency.
So even though Moore is two inches shorter than the average corner, his length/wingspan and vertical leap can offset his lack of height.
This gives me confidence that the personnel guys are being thoughtful and thorough as they evaluate players. And in the case of Moore, they got a good player that other teams might have overlooked because he's not tall enough to fit their criteria.
Being a ND fan, I hated one of the DCs we had who always had a very rigid measurement fit/requirement for positions. ND passed on several kids that wanted to be Irish, that went on to be elite players somewhere else...., all because they were an inch too short, their arms not quite long enough, or didn't have certain characteristic. Drove me nuts. Glad he's gone.
7 hours ago, LockeDown said:So does Ballard ever have his heart set on a player and doesn’t get him? I never hear him say that. And we know he is pretty honest. It seems like he sets his board and gets his guys. He had even calculated that Hooker might fall to them.
To have favorites is human. I'm sure most in that room have their heart set on one guy or another. Their all paid to do a job though, and that's why they have their board and decision matrix lined out. I just wonder how many situations arise that they haven't thought of, or planned for, and how they react to those.
2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:I think the board they truly use is kept secret from cameras.. I'm confidant that one used was for clarification with simplification.
I guarantee they're not giving away the secret sauce in any fan video. Ballard hired several data geeks, and I'm sure they have SQL database with all kinds of data points and weights built in. I don't think Ballard is "machine" driven, but I think he has a method of evaluation, and uses his tools to make things as clear and simple as possible to help keep him and his team stay on mission.
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16 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:
I played it, but I have not adjusted my board for medical and scheme fits. (which most fans don't, but might make a tremendous difference in these selections if it's done). Here is my results-
26: R1P26 EDGE RASHAN GARY
34: R2P2 S JOHNATHAN ABRAM
59: R2P27 CB ROCK YA-SIN
89: R3P25 TE JACE STERNBERGER
129: R4P27 CB SEAN BUNTING
135: R4P33 WR TERRY MCLAURIN
I just took my BPA from list that was left when my turn came up. Not drafting for position {unless I had two real close, I would have went with the player at a perceived hole in the roster}.
P.S. - Jonathan Abram is not afraid to hit. He was ejected from a Spring game (which was suspended as well) in 2017 for a hit on a team mate!!
I've seen Gary dropping a bit in a few mocks, but I don't see him dropping to 26. It would be tempting to take him if he did, even if you don't think Edge is a top 3 need.
I love Abrams as a run stopper, just a lot of concerns on his coverage ability due to the scheme he was in. I'm still partial to a few all-around guys like Thorn, Savage, and CJG.
As far as CB is concerned, I really like Jordan Brown in the later rounds. Check him out. I definitely think he's one of the hidden gem guys.
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16 hours ago, DerekDiggler said:
And yet you keep taking the bait. Ha
yup i know. it's typically pretty easy to post fact/links proving him wrong though lol.
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I liked it for what it was. And that's a fan vid. Better than most. I'm glad at the "who" was involved, more than the content itself.
Anything goes on draft day. No secrets in that vid. Film is important. Analytics are important. Having a succinct plan is important. Being flexible is important.
I'd be disappointed if they said anything else.
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49 minutes ago, Four2itus said:
Fitzpatrick is not a garbage quarterback. No QB who has started that many games in the NFL is garbage. Poor choice of adjectives. JMO....
he won't take them far into the playoffs, and is not their future at QB. if he doesn't fit either of those two descriptions, then they are always looking to upgrade.
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just a pic?
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JB is IMO better than any FA QB left out there.
Even the FAs and trades signed (except Foles) are pretty lame. Fitzpatrick lame. Flacco lame.
I wouldn't be shocked if he's traded or kept.
Ballard did his job selling his value. Maybe oversold.
I'd take a 3rd easily. Would contemplate a 4th depending on early or late. I think a package deal is most likely during the draft.
Like I said very early before FA started, I think the best chance of him being traded is during or after the draft.
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14 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Attendance and ticket sales are two different things.
When is the last time the Colts were blacked out?
You'd argue with mud puddle.
On the black out policy.... the NFL suspended the black out policy in 2015. Even when it was in place, you only had to sell out 85%
And... if you don't understand the correlation between attendance, ticket demand, and overall revenue, then you have other issues you may need to get checked out.
Season ticket renewals declined in the 16, 17, and 18 seasons (along with attendance). That was bad no matter how you spin it. Pump all the sunshine you want, but it was bad. The Colts even upped their food and beverage credits to sell tickets. They didn't pick up till we went on the second half winning streak last year.
Here's an article on the turnaround, but talks about the declines in previous years.
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15 hours ago, John Hammonds said:
Ok, I'll be the oddball out, and agree with the article.
Dexter Lawrence is a good player. Possibly even a great player. But I don't think he's worth it at 26. I'd rather take him at 34, and get a more dynamic player with our first pick. But what happens if he's the best guy left on our board, and we can't trade down? Do we take him anyway? I might. But I would also be unhappy doing it.
I do think we need to come away with a WR in this draft. And there are plenty of them, all with grades from low 1st through the entire 2nd round. But what happens if we address, say, DL and DB at 26 and 34, and then everybody gets taken by the time we get to 59? And all that's left are WR's that rank no better than Funchess, or, worse yet, no better than Chester Rogers? (Which is where I grade Boykin, by the way.) I think that would kinda suck.
I would like to get a safety in this draft, but I think we can get one in the 3rd or 4th round. We don't need Mr. Amazing. We just need an assurance that if our current starters get injured (again), the cupboard won't be completely bare.
In terms of grading, I'll use NFL.com's draft ratings. Funchess was a 5.64 during the 2016 draft (6.0 is assumed a "Starter"). Rogers wasn't even rated or included in most big boards at all (top 300 or 400).
Rogers was an undrafted free agent, so saying someone ranks under Rogers is a bit of a head scratcher. There are 16 WRs rated higher than Funchess's 5.64 in this year's draft. Boykin is one of them. One advantage to taking one of those 16, or even one a bit lower, is that you're not paying them 10M or more per year for the next XX years. Isabella for instance is rated a little below 5.64, but is RW and PFF's top rated WR. I'd have zero problem whatsoever taking him at 59. And I'd have zero problem with several of the WRs at 34. Chances are that a 6.0 WR will be available at 26 is pretty much a given, and at 34, pretty likely as well.
You can disagree with the ratings, but there will be plenty of solid WRs throughout the 2nd, and possibly into the 3rd. Short on T1 talent, but plenty of good T2 guys.
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11 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
IMO what you call selling, I call explaining.
There is no need to sell something that's already bought.
They are selling to the fan, who have not necessarily bought into the decision or vision yet. When fans stop buying the vision, they stop buying tickets, which is the primary goal of the organization. Fans stopped buying into the vision of Grigson, which led to the below. Ballard is in charge of correcting that. His duties are the same as anyone in charge of a company selling something.
Also... here's what the guy who hired Ballard to the Bears said about him....
Quote“Two years into our time with the Bears, I said to (then-GM Jerry Angelo) after the 2004 draft … ‘We got a winner here with this kid.’ I said, ‘Not only is he going to be a director someday, he’s going to be a GM.’ He totally understands the big picture,” Gabriel said.
“He presents players better than any scout I’ve ever been around.
“If he truly believed in the player, he had a knack for selling him.”
His old boss's words, not mine...
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Not really a big fan of taking on prospects with a position change in mind (unless it's very late in the draft). Definitely not something I'd want to do in the first 3 or 4 rounds.
The only ones that I'd really be interested in is big DE to DT, big CB to S, big WR to flex TE.
One guy that switched position in college that I like, is Jalen Hurd. He played RB (was pretty good) at TN, then switched to WR when he left (also pretty good). A lot of boards list him in the sleeper category.
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DK Metcalf is the player I'm hoping for in Round 1...
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
you can say the exact same thing about every person in every position on the team. "Ballard evidently sees something in all of them or they wouldn't be here"... does that mean we don't need to upgrade any person in any position?