EastStreet
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Posts posted by EastStreet
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Roemer late this year, and/or high pick next year.
If we don't plan to resign him, why not get an extra rookie contract year out of high OT next year.
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2 minutes ago, dw49 said:
No one will ver give up a second to sign him. I think it was the only way for the Colts to assure he stayed with the team . He was not drafted so no compensation if not tendered with a second. They could have just used the "right of first refusal ." That would give them the option to match any offer Boehm might receive. Maybe would have saved some money as it's hard to believe another team would offer 3.2 mill or more ?
But yeah , I'm sure the Colts are with you as they would have happily taken a 2nd for Bohm.
he was drafted in the 4th.
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8 minutes ago, Nate! said:
Whenever I use Fanspeak, feel like I come away with a loaded draft. Who says no to this gem of a mock:
26: R1P26
EDGE CLELIN FERRELL
CLEMSON
34: R2P2
DL JEFFERY SIMMONS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
59: R2P27
WR J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE
STANFORD
89: R3P25
CB AMANI ORUWARIYE
PENN STATE
129: R4P27
WR EMANUEL HALL
MISSOURI
135: R4P33
S AMANI HOOKER
IOWA
lol.. what board did you select, and what needs did you pick?
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46 minutes ago, dw49 said:
I was thinking the same but couldn't find the explanation for the "deadline date."
Honestly I'm not really worried about it either way. I like Boehm a lot, but I'd take a 2nd round draft pick from the receiving team without too many tears. We picked him up off waivers, so we don't have any draft capital invested in him. and... He's an UFA next year. Hope he stays though.
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2 minutes ago, dw49 said:
Yeah , I believe that's about the size of it. Boehm has no leverage other than just not play football in 2019. He for some reason did not sign the tender yet but bottom line is he will play for the Colts unless he's traded.
i guess it could mean that someone has made and offer, and either they are working through something, or the colts are countering. i don't know all the ins and outs, but i posted the FA regs a few weeks ago. i'll try to find it.
3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:That's the big question I guess. Why set a deadline if it doesn't matter? I would think there would have to be consequences. Our other RFA's signed in time.
it's probably more a deadline for the other teams to offer, than for the RFA to sign a tender. IDK, maybe?
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11 minutes ago, richard pallo said:
I believe Evan Boehm did not sign his restricted FA tender by Fridays deadline. All of the other RFA's have. Does anyone know how missing this deadline effects his status with the Colts? I'm surprised by this actually.
He's a RFA. So either another team offers him more, or he comes back (not sure if it matters if he signs). Should another team offer more, we have the right to match. If we don't match, he's let go (and we get a 2nd round since that's what he was tendered at). If he's not offered, since he's under 4 years in the league, he's ours regardless IIRC and we pay him at the 2nd round tender amount (~3M).
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6 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
I think he just wanting to draft a little help for his friends
hoping in this case, Luck is his friend. if so, let it be.
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25 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:
To tell you the truth our oline which had been stellar did not perform in KC. That was a huge problem. When every part of the game plus the coaching is so bad I just think we ran out of gas more then needing more weapons. Every team would love to upgrade and have more weapons. I think we have enough to win a SB. But of course I would love to upgrade. I just don’t think it’s so bad like so many others think.
Honestly, I wouldn't hang it on the OL. Luck is one of the best in TT (time to throw), which is how long it takes him to get the ball out. His year average is 2.63 (top 10 close to Brady and Rivers). His average for the KC game was 2.86.
Might not seem like a big difference, but 2.86 puts him in the 10 worst category. A higher TT can mean thee things, or a combo. Either your line is giving you a lot of time, your a dancer or QB that leaves the pocket a lot, or your WRs are covered up and you can't throw as fast as you want, or both. Lucks not a frequent dancer. In the case of the KC game, our WRs were covered up.
Luck had a similar TT vs Buffalo, who was the #1 pass defense in the league (TY was doubled and only had 25 yards that game). We beat Buffalo badly, but it was more because they turned the ball over 5 times and we had a great running game. Didn't hurt that they have one of the worst Os either.
Jax was also a bad one for Lucks TT, and they are #2 passing defense that also doubled TY.
Check out NextGen stats if you are interested.
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19 minutes ago, stitches said:
I did the DTs from my board and here are the results sorted by TFL/game:
Seems like small school prospect get a bit of a bump because of low level competition. Ed Oliver Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen and Gerald Willins, as well as Zach Allen rank high one those.
Jerry Tillery is a little bit under the threshold they recommend.
Love this Stitches. Great info.
Tillery had 10.5 in 13 games. So above threshold at 0.81
plus 3 forced fumbles :-)
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3 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:
Is everyone forgetting Hilton had a bad ankle and the field in KC was a slippery mess. Two safeties out. Players on defense playing out of position. You can’t look at the KC game. There was a lot of factors that went into that loss.
Both teams were banged up. KC had injury issues with Watkins, Ware, and Hill on O, not to mention the loss of Hunt earlier, both NTs, Ragland (one of their top tacklers) , and 2 CBs.
Our D was really not the issue IMO. We held them to under their average pts. (4.3 under). They scored the same on NE who beat them. They were held under 31 only 4 times.
And the slippery mess didn't effect KC .
Their running game tore us up. 180 yards, 4 TDs. Ours, 87 yards, 0 TDs.
They doubled TY and we simply had no answers. Play calling was predictable once we got down.
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I think Jim is sitting down at John's piano, and "imagining" a WR drafted in the first two rounds
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pass.
I'd prefer not to
-lose a 1st round pick-lose 4 years of a cheap rookie contract
-Go straight to a 17+Mill / year contract
-Have a guy who had home invasion and theft charges in 2012, domestic violence charges in 2014, and then the twitter thing in 2017. That's a lot if you are truly concerned about culture.
If we really wanted another DE, I'd rather trade up and draft one. I'd prefer to go iDL anyway. I'm all for second chances, but this guy has two major incidents, and then was a butt head about it in a tweet to a female journalist, all over 5 years. And, he's a scUM Wolverine... No thanks.
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1 hour ago, stitches said:
I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ?
I'd bet they have geeks updating their DB (with a pretty good visual interface) and assistants updating their visual old school boards all at the same time.
The Braden Smith case kind of confirms to me that they are willing to prioritize need and reach a little at position. Sounds like they prioritized OL and likely reached past potentially BPA at other positions. All in all, sounds like they had a plan with priorities, and the potential rush caused them to react.
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49 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:
I have no reason to not believe what Ballard openly says. He has been about as honest in what he wants to do as he can be.
Here he is talking about it on 1070 In the 13 NFL drafts he has been a part of he has only taken one receiver in the first two rounds and that was at pick 45 with Alshon Jeffery
and here he is on the Pat McAfee show saying he is BPA and not a need guy. Toward the end of the video
A couple things to ponder.
In his 4 years with the Chiefs 2013-2016
-Dorsey was the GM calling the shots. Sure CB had input, but was not the final say.
-Dorsey was fired before 17 because he mismanaged things including the salary cap..
-Ballard was Dir of Player Personnel 13-14, then moved to Dir of Ops for 15-16.
-In those 4 years KC only had 5 combined 1st and 2nd round picks (3x1st, 2x2nd)
-With those 5 picks in 4 years he took OT, DE, CB, G, and DT in the first two rounds.
-While he was in KC, the O ranked 21st, 25th, 27th, and 20th.
-When Dorsey left and Veach (was Dir of Player Personnel) took over, the O ranked 5th and 1st.
In his time with the Bears (2001-2012)
-11 of the 12 years he was SW Area Scout (not making draft decisions)
-His last year he was Director of Pro Scouting (responsible for FA, not college scouting)
-Chicago's O was pretty horrible in those days.
Point being, he's a new GM. I don't think we can necessarily assume he'll trend the same as Dorsey or Angelo (Bears GM). Again, not saying he will, or won't take a WR early. Just saying he's not in KC under Dorsey, or in Chicago under Angelo, and he has a true franchise QB for the first time in his career. He may do things a bit differently. I'd also bet that Irsay has a little say in draft strategy.
And what if BPA is a WR? It's very possible.
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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
And if I say take away Reich and Luck and you have Hilton, Ebron and Mack, I think we have the weakest group of skill players of any playoff caliber team.
They're not bad. They helped us win 10 regular season games, and a playoff game. And then Kansas City happened, in part, because of our lack of skill player talent.
But when you’re trying to reach the Super Bowl I think we’re going to need much more. And that’s why Ballard went out and signed Funchess to the deal he did. Because we need more talent.
We didn't beat a team above 15th in total offense last year. We play 7 of the top 11 this year. While I think our D needs to improve, we simply need to score more as well. And we can't let double teams on TY kill us like KC (and Phil and Jax) did. We've added a proven guy in Houston, and an up and down guy in Funchess. Still need to improve both sides.
We went from the most sacked team in 17, to the 2nd least sacked team in 18 (QBs with over 300 attempts) so I'm good with not taking an OL early. If Doyle is back, we don't need a TE early. We don't need a RB early.
In the last two years, in the first two rounds, we've taken 2 DBs, 2 OLs, 2 DEs, and a LB. I'm ready for an offensive skill position this year with one of the first 3 picks, and hopefully it's a WR. Hoping iDL with another.
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I'd rather have Minshew late, than TM late. Neck-beard and stache would be an awesome pairing. But yes, he'd be fine if we ended up trading JB.
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1 hour ago, CoachLite said:
Check out NoSQL - a class of (network) graph databases, such as MongoDB for example. These are better at recalculating the combinatorics of Markov Chains when the structure of the data changes substantially in short time frames.
Here's one aspect of "the problem space": What are the effects of new information on previously stored information? These are so-called Bayesian Inference Problems. It's not your father's football anymore - it's become a sophisticated, big business.
I'm familiar with Mongo and other Doc Stores. I'm not a DB guy, but have managed plenty, and have several buds that are deep into all the fun. It's been 2 years since I had to manage a group going through a design having to do with DBing, but the last (work flow management tool with dispatch and other intricacies) project we ended up going with SQL due to security concerns. A few of my bud love Mongo specifically though.
It'd be fun to know what the Colts use. I'd bet on SQL or IBM. May not be my father's NFL anymore, but most of the owners of the teams are older than my father :-)
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The thread was a good read.
Seems most weren't happy with the picks, not because of stats or player history, but simply because they didn't recognize the names or thought it was too big of a reach.
Smith was top 50ish on most boards, and was 2x All SEC (2nd team his soph year). Perhaps a bit of a tiny reach at 37, but could easily have been gone at 52 (the Colts next pick).
Leonard was in the 80s on Mayock's board (some had him outside of the top 100) so I can understand folks feeling like 36/37 was a reach (the Colts still had 52 and 64) if they were listening to guys like Kiper and Mayock. Would he have been available, maybe? NFL.com rated him at 5.81 (chance to become a starter) which would be good enough this year to be the 58th rated guy. So there at 52 or 64?,,,,,, he could have easily been gone if someone else liked him. The kid's resume, albeit from a lesser conference, was very impressive. Soph year was first team MEAC, he was defensive MEAC player of the year in both his Junior and Senior years. He also led the Senior Bowl in tackles (not to mention 19 tackles when they played Clemson).
Just proves once again the Mayocks of the world aren't always accurate. Also proves some small school kids can ball. Always better to research picks before being unhappy. Ballard did better in 18 then he did in 17 (basham in the 3rd and banner in the 4th were waved early). Hope he nails it Thursday.
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35 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
If Ballard didn't see some talent in a player he wouldn't be on the roster in the first place.
Are you suggesting otherwise?
I didn't suggest anything. I'm just saying that by applying you logic to everyone on the roster, we shouldn't need to upgrade anything. Or does that just hold true to WR?
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4 hours ago, DerekDiggler said:
So the Colts use a lot of 12 personnel on offense. So that’s
TY
Funchess
Doyle
Ebron/ or Other blocking TE
Mack/Hines
where red is a WR going to step in and push one of these guys out? Funchess was signed as a starter. Anyone that doesn’t understand that is clueless
in the wings there is Caine, Johnson, Rogers Pascal amd hopefully Inman Again where is the immediate upgrade? As a back up? Seriously?
i have heard a ton of arguments about stretching the field. I don’t get it. We don’t run a down the field passing attach anymore It’s quick release and 5-10 yds at a time.
The guys currently on the on the roster are good enough to be very good in this offense They might just need another yr of coaching. All will improve.
Watch out for Johnson. He might very well be a huge surprise this yr and Rogers also. And who knows what Cain can bring. Hopefully a lot
Frank said he wants to be a top 5 running team on offense. They have not BSd any of us on this. That is why they built the % out of that Oline
Coaching up the WRs we have with the addition of Funchess and basically a free draft pick in Cain is a lot added to this passing attach
TBH if I were drafting only for need I would take an OT and a RB before I took a WR with this group
Based on snap counts last year.
TE was 1.29, WR 2.56, RB 1.03
So we ran 2 TE sets a little less than a 3rd of the time (likely a lot on early running downs or RZ), 3 WR sets more than half the time, and used only one RB except for a few instances.
A few things to ponder.... How sure are you that DF was signed assumed to be full time starter? By most reports, Cain had locked down the #2 spot last year before he got injured. Do you think Cain was told DF was signed to be the starter? Might he have been signed to provide depth to the unit while Cain gets his form back? Or even while a drafted WR comes on....
Also, as discussed, DF's most successful routes were short to intermediate middle type routes (not X WR routes). Not necessarily perimeter or deep. Do you think the coaches will force fit him into areas where he's had the least success? It's also been discussed that he might find more success as a big or bully slot?
In terms of stretching the field... If you've read up on Reich's offense, there is a lot of talk about "4 vert" or K gun (going back to his own QB days). Yes there is a lot of up tempo quick hits, but there is supposed to be a stretch element too. It's supposed to be multiple formations, multiple plays, all up tempo. 4 vert is just what it sounds like. 4 players going vertical. Not just all short to intermediate. Luck can throw every ball. Not using his vertical talents would be a bit silly, no?
On the whole WR unit, we have literally only one proven guy and that's TY. Potential and talent are great words, but we have only TY that's proven. DF has had his ups and downs, and hopefully he gets it turned around. I love Cain, but he's rehabing and didn't exactly light the world on fire at Clemson. Both he and Renfrow were there in 16 and 17. Cain stayed about the same while Renfrow took a nice step forward.
All the other guys (Pascal, Johnson, Fountain) are projects that we hope might pan out. You mentioned Johnson, and I like his potential too, but he didn't do much at TX, and has been hurt 2 of his 3 NFL years. In short, based on last years stats, not one WR ranked inside the top 80 in yards other than Hilton. It's incredible what Luck did with all the moving parts last year, but he shouldn't have to work this hard.
And you mentioned you'd take a RB early. If we're talking about proven, and also potential... When Mack came back in game 6 IIRC, we were a top 10 rushing team the rest of the year (I think if you normalize, Mack would have been 5th or 6th in yards). We also just drafted Hines who had a very good first year (700+ all purpose yards), and Wilkins who averaged 5.6 yards per carry in back up duty to Mack. Individually, that's much more proven than our WR corp. I would like to have a power back compliment over Williams, but that's in the middle to late rounds.
Not saying we will, or won't take a WR early, but every mock and "needs" board out there has WR in the top 2. Even Colts.com listed WR first in their post FA needs. Of course Ballard will do what he wants, but the overwhelming majority of "experts" out there are saying Indy needs to upgrade WR.
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16 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
I said I understood his point of view.
I don't devalue players like you seem to do. Players earn their spot and develop. It's that simple.
we're not talking about devaluing. you said if they're on the roster, Ballard must see something in them? can that not be applied to everyone on the roster?
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5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:
This is such a good point about Cain. He is basically a rookie. Not to mention Marcus Johnson got injured early also. So he is kind of a rookie also.
MJ was drafted in 16. He's been injured 2 of his 3 years. Played 15 games, and was targeted 16 times in those games. Prior to signing as an undrafted FA, he was at TX. Didn't do a lot there. He's always had outstanding measurables, just wasn't reliable.
didn't get a combine invite. here's his rookie profile.
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3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Now where did I say that?
Putting your own twist on my comment is a waist of time.
what was your point then? you were supporting choe's suggestion that we don't need O weapons, because we have XX already and Ballard sees something in them because they are on the roster. why wouldn't you apply that logic to everyone on the roster?
no spin. it's logic. but please explain.
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2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:
I don’t care if your best pass catcher is a tight end or a wide receiver. Ebron ,Doyle, Hilton, Cain, Funchess. Plus all our running backs. We have plenty of weapons. Everyone can say funchess is not proven. He is way more proven then a draft pick. Any draft pick at WR is unproven. Why not give Cain, fountain, and Johnson a chance. We were sixth in offense.We are not lacking weopons. Unless there is some generational WR in the first or second I pass. We already have 3 late round receivers so why would we add more. Not to mention Rogers and pascal also. They are all very young. I will be on with whatever he does with WR.
KC followed the blue print Phil and Jax laid out (and even the Bengals early on) to double TY, and it worked. We played teams with crappy Os last year. This year we play 7 of the top 11 Os from last year. We can't afford to be shut down like KC did to us. If we get down early, we're one dimensional, and more times than not, we're going to lose. We have zero proven weapons receiving besides TY and Ebron (and Doyle if he can stay healthy) at this point.
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Castonzo's Replacement
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
I'd probably bank more on Clark or Haeg than Garcia based on snap counts. Garcia is a total unknown.
I'm fine with extending Castonzo if he can stay healthy this year.
A lot can happen. Roemer late in the draft could end up being a tier one guy if he keeps his head straight. There's going to be some good FA Ts next year too.