loudnproudcolt
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Posts posted by loudnproudcolt
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Guys, Mack would be worth the 10M a year due to what he would mean to our line, and how he would be the anchor for the next 6-8 years. Plus even though the LT's in FA did not break the bank and move the numbers up, next year, when the salary cap jumps again to 140M or more, elite LT's will be making around 11-12, and the best Center in the league next year would be worth 10M, we would just be establishing what the market will be next year. Ahead of our time. I have worked the numbers out, and it would leave us with around 7 million going into the year, and we don't need to worry about our draft since we have no number ones. In 2015 we would still have over 30M, if we cut Toler and Waldon which would not surpise me, but we still have plenty of money to sign Castanzo, T.Y. , Allen, Fleener. We will need to wait on Brazil, but paying Mack would not hinder us in signing our own guys next year, and still have a little left over for FA.
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We are assuming Reggie is going to be ready at the start of the season. He is 35 and there are no guarantees he will come back to what he was. We need to carry 6 for that fact alone. If Reggie god forbid cannot start the season, gets placed on PUP, then Whalen is our possession receiver. Reggie says the rehab is going great, but we keep all 6 to be safe. Plus with the knee, how long does Reggie have. I only see two more years max. since his knees were hurting pups after games to begin with, so I would like to keep Griff as the possession guy, although if Nicks proves he can be what he was, that could change the equation some. I agree with everyone though if one has to go, at some point, I would like to keep Brazil due to speed and upside. The only thing that scares me is he is I believe only one infraction away from a year suspension, which has to enter the equation. Just some thoughts to chew on.
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I was reading an article on Sportsline.com giving grades out to FA and at the end of the article Prisco mentioned several centers who were still on the market who he was surprised by.
The name Ryan Wendell was mentioned, who has been New England's starter for the last 4 years, only missed 3 games in all that time, and is only 28. He must be decent to be there starter, but you know they don't like to pay big money to lineman. Plus they have signed a lot of people lately, Edelman back today, Brandon Browner, and the huge two year contract for Revis which will be redone after this year. Regardless, I don't know why his name has not come up on the forum. He seems like he would be a good acquisition. I don't know a lot, but with our need at center, either we have decided to seriously pursue Mack, and put a lot of eggs in one basket, or decided to use the draft. I am sure I am over thinking it, since only 5 days have gone by. Prisco mentions a couple more, he likes, DeLaPuente, etc. Below is his little quote on the centers still available:
Even with Dietrich-Smith going off the market, there are still good centers available. There's San Francisco's Jonathan Goodwin, New England's Ryan Wendell and Brian De La Puente from the Saints. Then there's also Cleveland's Alex Mack, although the Browns could match any offer he would get since they put the transition tag on him.
Thoughts on Wendell.
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If Nicks can come back to the form where he was in his first two years, he would be a beast for us, and the perfect replacement for Reggie when he retires. More of a possession receiver, but huge hands and faster when healthy. Also, signing Nicks presumably clears the way to not draft a WR in the second round which is another huge benefit! Love the signing. I thought he would go to SF or Carolina.
I admit though if Jordan Mathews for Vandy, 6ft.3 inches and ran a 4.5 in the forty, and has great big mits for hands would be an attractive offer. I would not be surprised though if Jarvis Landry drops to the 3rd due to the 4.7 speed in the 40. He would be a steal there. We cannot count on Nicks with his injury history, so we still could draft one if a good one is there, and there are plenty who are tall and fast, Montcrieft, 4.4, 6ft. 3, Matthews info above. Bennett from Cleveland, 4.5 40 and 6 ft. 3in. Davante Adams could be there also, so a decision will have to be made. Do we go best player or need.
WalterFootball.com has us taking David Yankey G/OT, Stanford, in the 2nd round pick. I would be very happy with that pick. I had seen him projected as high as the first round, and as much as Stanford runs, they have some tough SOB's. Stanford East.
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On the subject of cap, don't know exactly where we are at because I don't know the structure of Davis, Nicks, and Costa. I am guessing though we will be in the neighborhood of still having 15M. We had 27M right before Davis signing and that counted all our own signings and Jones. So if they frontload Davis, it could be more, if they don't frontload him, we could have more cap space.
Our draft picks will only cost in the neighborhood of 700K towards the cap since we don't have a number 1, which is almost insignificant. If we wanted to make Mack an offer, we could structure Davis where it is not front loaded and have more cap, so cap is not an issue is we offer him a contract in the neighborhood of 10M. Worst case scenario, we have 6-7M left for resignings and emergencies, and that is if we frontload Davis. So I say, go for it. Give a 2nd and get him!
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I am sure Grigson will front load the contract if we have a lot of cap space left so if we need to get out of it for some reason, we will be able to. Hopefully Vontae keeps growing and that will not be the case.
The deal and how it is structured, along with cap space we will have saved going forward will allow us to sign our 2012 class of FA's and Castanzo, and still be in good shape after the 2015 season or before it to extend Luck. Our cap management is being done really well, and allowing us each year to plug in a couple FA pieces. The most important thing as I said before though, is our cap management is allowing us to sign our players we drafted, know the system, and are very good players. We will have at least 4 players from 2012 to extend next year. If we were the Saints or Cowboys, that would not be the case.
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I am not here to argue the merits of our FA's success last year. What I am hear to say is one year later, with a higher salary cap, and certain needs of teams, and it makes certain signings look very good. We signed a lot of defensive players last year for around 4M/yr. in FA last year, with contracts structured so we could get out easily without a lot of pain. No they may not be the quality of some of the defensive lb's and linemen who got signed today, but they sure were a lot cheaper. Johnson to the bucks, 5 yrs/42M I believe. Vikings signed their DE, can't remember his name, but he got around 5-6M/yr. and had 3.5 sacks last year. My point is the market was set very high for DL and LB's, and made our contracts look much better. I won't argue as to the quality of the players, because we could do that all day.
Also look at the linemen signed today. I am not including the guaranteed money, but Alberts, Moore, and many other cleaned up, and it can be argued as to their worth. Remember teams generally don't let linemen go if they are that good. Alberts, 9M/yr? Look at Zane Beadles, G from the Broncos. He signed with the Jags for 5 yr./30M with 13 guaranteed, for a Guard! I know the Jags have to pay a little more to get people there, but that was a lot. Beadles was rated as the top FA guard i believe, but that was a lot. Roger Saffold, 5 yr./42.5M with 21M guaranteed. He has been hurt a lot in his last 4 years, and then they let their LT Velheer go to the Cardinals who pay only 7M/yr. to acquire him, and he was a better player and younger. Once again the Raiders strike again. What were they thinking. While I am on it, you have over 60M in cap space, why do you let Velheer walk, and Lamar Houston. Could not believe that one. i know they are in the same boat as the Jags, have to probably overpay, but wow. Maybe the players just wanted out, but it boggles my mind on those decisions. Still the OL today got paid.
So looking back, our signing last year on the defensive side don't look too expensive imho except for Landry and Toler.
The one contract which was hotly debated was Gosder Cheriles at 5yrs./34.5M. I thought he played really well last year, and looking back, his contract was a bargain,
I am guessing in two years, if the salary cap makes it to 150M in 2016, we will be looking at the Davis signing for a really good press corner as an absolute deal! Funny how salary cap changes and teams with needs at certain positions make you reassess signings. Overall, I would say pretty good job.
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My point, after looking at the signings today of OL, and the prices that
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I really wanted Vontae back, We spent a 2nd rounder on him, plus he was the best press coverage guy outthere I felt. When I heard the price, I was like wow, that is a lot of money. I love hearing all the names in FA, but it is for plugging in some weak spots, not building a team. You keep your own players in this league that are good, that is how you win!
So back to Davis, I thought it was pricey, but Shields had set the market with his 4 yr./39M contract, so you knew it was going to be pricey, and the Jets according to Schefter thought they had Davis. We must of come back in the last moment, and I am glad we did. Then Verner came across the wire at 6M a year, don't know the guaranteed, and I thought, oh well everyone is going to thing we overpaid massively. Of course Verner is more zone, and not a press coverage guy, and not nearly as big as some of the other prospects. Then all of a sudden tonight I look at the massive contracts of Talib and Byrd.
Talib 6 yr./57M with 26M guaranteed, and keep in mind the guaranteed is always the most important. Davis only has 20M guaranteed.
Then the Byrd contract I saw next, and for a safety I could not believe it. 6 yr./54M with 28M guaranteed. Could not believe it! 28M guaranteed. Davis keeps looking better all the time!
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24478882/saints-sign-jairus-byrd-to-six-year-deal
After digesting that news, I thought we really did a good job on the first today. We did overpay a little, but in the grand scheme, not much. Plus we kept our own players! I don't know how the Saints are going to digest that deal with Byrd. They have 2M in cap space. They have already release so many players, and Jenkins at satety was not bad. Losing Lance Moore hurts, he was a favorite target of Brees when healthy. Losing Sproles and Pierre Thomas is really going to hurt. Brees has a cap hit right now of 26.7M this year. I wonder what Jimmy Graham is thinking after the Byrd signing and him being designated a TE under the franchise. How in the hell will they be able to ink him to a long term deal this year or next. They are going to be in cap hell for a long time, and have lost a great deal of their weapons on offense.
One last thought. I loved the signing of Aurthur Jones, seemed to go under the radar at most news outlets, but not surprising. Good signing for us. Lets find a Center, and hopefully a FS, and I will be happy moving the rest of that cap money to next year where we are going to have a large amount due to prudent spending on FA's this year.
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Vontae wants in the neighborhood of 9-10M/yr. I am guessing Byrd wants something in the same neighborhood. If you had to pick one, because we did not want to spend that much cap space on both of them, which one would you want? Myself, I would want Byrd. He has proven how consistent he is, and is a ballhawk. He would allow us to move Landry to a pure SS position. I also think Byrd's skills would allow us to have corners who have a little less talent, since he has a nose for the ball. I love Vontae, but in the two years he has been here, he has been inconsistent at times. Plus he does get knicked up a bit. I just look at consistency of play, and Byrd would be someone who would be able to protect our CB's. Byrd would be our Ed Reed.
In all honesty though, the salary cap is going to go up to around 150M for the 2016 season. We have plenty of cap space. Sign a C, a G and then sign Byrd and Davis. Signing them both to 5 year deals at what looks a little high right now is going to look cheap compared to what the top FA's will be demanding in 2016, and we would have them through 2018. It would provide a great window for SB runs. We will still have the cap space next year to sign our 2012 class and Andrew in 2015!
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Guys I just posted a topic on this, not seeing you had already looked for the details. From what overthecap shows, it is basically a two year contract. If we release him after first year, we have a dead money cap hit of $5.4M and only save 300K towards the cap. So from what I can see, regardless of roster bonus, it is a 2 year contract basically.
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I know many are interested in how Jackson's contract breaks down. Basically it is a 12M contract for 2 years. The last two years, the Colts can get out of easily with very little dead money. So it is front loaded, which is great. After 2 yrs, we can assess how much he still has to give. If you want to look at the breakdown over the four years, here is the link:
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I never read too much into articles, but I like reading Pat Kirwin cbssportsline.com since he was in player personnel, and he always has a few good thoughts. I have been reading at multiple spots agents liked Indy due to the signings last year, not the players themselves, but the $$$$ the Colts put out.
Now couple that with a team who has a very good young QB, and a chance to win right now for awhile, and it seems the Colts are a good destination for many young FA's. If Kirwin is right, which he won't be, the Colts are going to be spending a lot of cap space. As far as my thoughts, I would like Byrd, Verner from the list, but then go after some OG's, and make sure Vontae gets resigned! Also, why would we go after Monroe? Castanzo is fine, and keeps getting better each year. Plus I do not want to pay Decker number 1 WR money. Everyone says wherever he signs his deal will be as good as or better than Wallace to the Dolphins last year. Please don't let that happen. If you want to spend that type of money, spend it on Davis and Byrd. I can see spending number 2 WR on him, but I don't even think that is prudent. Here is a snippet from the article, and if you want to read it in it's entirety, the link is below. It is an interesting article. I also put a link in at the bottom about the market for Decker, and what a former agent thinks he will get. As I said, not here!!!!!!!!
Free agents like ColtsThe signing of linebacker D'Qwell Jackson on a four-year, $22 million deal is just the tip of the iceberg in Indianapolis. The Colts have close to $40 million in cap space and as Jackson said he wanted to go to a team with a good young QB and a team with a chance to win now and for the next few years. I got the feeling a number of good young veterans on the free agent market are looking at the Colts as the place they want to go. I could see an offensive tackle like Monroe, a wide receiver like Decker, a safety like Byrd, and a corner like Verner in their sights when Tuesday rolls around.
Really good article, and goes into much more than just FA.
The article about Decker from an agent's point of view and evidence to back it is also interesting. Link
provided below for anyone who wants to read it.
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I will be the first one to say I love that we now have a GM who sees the value in FA. I love being able to talk about all the players, and I truly believe with 41M in cap space, hopefully 45M in cap space when Satele is released that we need to fill a couple crucial positions, especially with only 5 draft picks this year. I would go after a safety(Ward or Byrd), a Center(DeLaPunete) and a guard(Schwartz, or Asomoah). Those as far as I am concerned are the must have positions in FA, and I love being able to talk, argue, debate the relative merits.
The one thing that concerns me though, and I know most people is you don't build a team through FA. Have you ever seen it work. Miami last year, Washington over the years. FA is tough because many good players who are available are good because of 1) the system they were in. Being able to evaluate that is crucial. I was so glad we did not go after Krueger last year, because I felt the system he was in inflated his value.
The second thing which concerns me is many players look good due to the players who have surrounded them. Krueger was helped by this last year. Byrd is a stud, but how much did Aaron Williams, Buffalo's other safety help him, and make him look better. I don't have the answer, but you always need to look at who those players were surrounded by.
Last, many players who are in the final year of a contract miraculously play better than the other years they have bee under contract. One year miracles are always a concern, because they may not have the motor unless their is a huge incentive and they can see it in front of them.
I am still going to enjoy the next couple of weeks, and hope Grigson makes some smart judicious moves. I think Jackson is a good start, But we want to fill holes with smart contracts, and only spend big money on players we are sure do not fit the above criteria. The team who wins in March never seems to win during the regular season. Just a thought, and I am not trying to be a buzzkill!!!!
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For those who did know, yesterday Buffalo signed their other Safety, Aaron Williams to a 26M extension. This is the highest extension yet given to anyone from the 2011 draft class. No numbers yet, but it will make him one of the highest paid safeties. No way Buffalo is going to pay both their safeties big money, so it looks like Byrd will definitely be landing somewhere besides Buffalo. I thought it was apparent he wanted out, but I think this news makes it official.
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The Bills are reluctant to tag Byrd for a second straight year, after clashing with him over his health early last season and unable to secure him long-term. Their latest offer would have made him one of the top paid safeties in the NFL within the first two years of the deal, but he turned it down.
Sounds like Byrd wants out of Buffalo really bad, and since it was the second tag, it would cost them over 10M to franchise him. Can't believe he turned down the offer if it truly made him one of the highest paid safeties.
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Sorry I did not see the post earlier today by StandbyYa about Byrd, but the link is still worth reading since it talks about Orakpo and several others who may or may not get tagged. Good Read!
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In a major change of what had been reported a week ago, it seems Jairius Byrd and Orakpo will hit the market. Most thought Washington especially with the cap space they had would tag Orakpo. Everyone though Byrd would be tagged, and if they could not work out a deal, at least a trade so they get something back. I am really surprised they are going to let Byrd test FA. Orakpo, I think will stay with the skins. He is going to cost around 12M a year, and he has been injured quite a bit. Byrd on the other hand, someone is going to pay him what he wants. I would not mind it being us, considering the large amount of cap space we have, and he is a game changer. The board can now begin the "we want byrd chant".
One thing I will preface FA spending by, I don't think we are going to spend big bucks for large names, but with the Decker rumors I could be wrong. I do believe though that any star FA who wants $$$ is going to go to Cleveland or Oakland. Lots of cap space and in both cases are going to have to pay more than market price for FA's to go there, so it makes it a little tougher on the Colts. We will not pay more than the market, which I am glad!
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The official cap number is not set. Adam Schefter tweeted it and http://www.overthecap.com,
has confirmed the number. It was supposed to be 130M, but they guess due to the CBS Thursday night deal possibly, it got bumped up further. 10M more than last year, and they believe it goes to 140M in 2015 and 150M in 2016, which are some hefty increases. They do note though that projection of the cap often turns out wrong. They never expected this year to go up as much as it did, and they question the estimates going forward. Regardless, it is a significant bump considering how the cap had been stagnant for the last two years. I know a few teams are very happy. Dallas and New Orleans to name two. Can you believe Dallas is still 17M over the cap, and if you throw in their estimated rookie class signings, it will be about 22M. Our estimated rookie signings are about 700K due to our draft picks, or lack thereof.
OK, so I am going to pretend, hope and prey that we cut Satele. That takes us up to just under 45M under the cap. So the question is, does this change what we plan to do in Free Agency, since we have more cash. I know we have to keep an eye out on next year, since we have to extend TY, Dwayne and Coby. Yes, I believe both TE's get extended, and in my opinion the sooner the better. All three are in the plans going forward, and extending them earlier makes more sense. This is the 49ers MO, and it works well. Establish your core young players you want to keep and extend them a year earlier because it is cheaper this way. I would also like to think about extending Luck after next season so we could keep his cap number at a reasonable number if we extend after the 3rd year, but the extensions are up for debate.
The important thing right now is, with 45M assuming Satele gone, due we go after any of the higher marguis players, like Mack if he is not franchised. The cap growing adds to the argument that we could afford to buffer the line at one of the most important positions. The talk of Decker is getting louder, and before the cap going up, I was dead set against it. I have softened my thoughts a bit, but only if we can get him at around 8M/yr. I think that is still a risk, but he is tall, has good hands, and in time I think he will improve. Luck will make him better just like Peyton did, but I can go either way on that one. In the end, with the extra cap room, I would like Mack, DeLapuente, or the Packers center, and then the rest we have to see who gets franchised, let go, etc. I would not mind thinking about Red Bryant. Seattle released him today, and he can clog up that middle. Would not mind Bennett either. Both could be good additions to the line, and would not cost an arm and a leg.
Let me know your thoughts please. I think the cap going up to 133M changes the way we have to think a bit. It really puts us in a good position. If we cut Satele, we will have more cap room than we did last year. Never thought I would say that. 45 Million!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On a side note, I want to thank whoever was the one to post the site overthecap.com. It is a great site. I never thought capology could be so interesting, and it has great articles and insight. If you look at all the teams going forward, beyond 2014, we are in great shape!
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He is not a little faster than TY, but it does not mean it translates to football speed. Essentially he is a TY clone, small and very fast except for one major difference. He played running back at Kent St., and he needs to be played out of the slot position most of the time. It will take time for him to learn routes, and it may never happen. WR transition is one of the toughest from College to Pro, and it was not his college position. TY was a great route runner as soon as he hit the field his first year! Personally, I will take TY since he has proved himself as a stud.
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Everyone keeps talking about Clevelands cap space, and although they have more, I believe we are in better shape. They have several players who are key that they want to extend who are going to cost big money. Mack, Haden and Ward. Mack will be 9M/year, Hayden 10-11M/year and Ward about 9M/year. Really good safeties are starting to get more money. So that takes a big chunk out of their cap space. The other problem. They simply have to pay people more to either come to Cleveland and/or stay with an extension. When you have a losing team and chaos, it is not an enduring recruiting element, so only $$$$$ speaks. I know this is a little off the release of the Jackson release, but this is the reason they did it I believe. They may be bad, but they have many good players, which means a lot of expensive extensions.
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When I look at Kelce's deal, I say about 6M a year basically. Then I look at Satele and we are going to pay him 5M for this year. So for comparison sake, I won't talk about how good the players are, but Satele even being in the ballpark of a player like Kelce is simply ridiculous. Cut him, take the 4M in cap space, and then you are basically signing a center for about the same money and if looked through the prism of cutting Satele, it will only cost us about $2-3 Million extra, when looking at what Samson has been paid the last two years and going forward. I think that is a bargain to at least get someone who does not get pushed into the backfield everytime it seems. Even if BDLP is not a great run blocker, at least we know he can pass protect. EDS is my choice, and maybe 6-7M would encourage him to join us. He would be leaving a great QB, but he would be joining a younger QB, who has the chance to surpass Rodgers. Regardless, after reading what Kelce is getting and looking at Satele's cap number, it is ridiculous. I wonder though why the axe has not been brought out yet. Maybe we are waiting to see what the FA market looks like? We have 37.5M in cap space and almost 42M if we cut him. We have the money to get a quality center and a guard possibly. I don't know what happens in FA, but I would almost be happy if the one acquisition we make is a quality Center. I think it is the most essential addition to what this team needs. It would be my first priority!
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For all of the members who has visions of Jairous Byrd with a horseshoe on the side of his helmet in the upcoming season, I have to bust your bubble. Buffalo, even with the 20% bump he will get due to being franchised two years in a row, meaning he will earn around 10M if no long term deal is signed, said they plan to tag him and work on a long term deal. The reason, Cleveland really want Byrd, and they obviously have plenty of cap space to pay him. It may turn out that Buffalon tags him, and then trades him to Cleveland, because he is clearly not happy in Buffalo, but maybe a long term deal will cure that. If it does not, you can only franchise someone twice, so he could make 10M this year, and walk next year into a really big contract. I don't know if that is something he would do, but for this year he is off limits, so the chatter about acquiring him can stop. I would love him in our backfield, but paying him between 9-10M a year is just too much. Here is the link to the article.
I tend to look at the glass half full, it leaves us more money to sign Mack or Evan Dietrich Smith!
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They have the wrong Donald Brown listed as a RB for the Texans. Donald Brown is on the Texans OL, guard I believe who is one of there best, and I have read is a priority to resign. That is from memory,but I am pretty sure it is not our Donald Brown. Anyone surprised by the amount of centers to hit FA. We should be able to find a good one!
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Really a good post, and the site "over the cap" has great articles on it each day about cap space and how it affects teams and different players. I agree Grigs has done a good job of not putting us in cap hell. And if you really want to talk "cap hell" just look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are 25M over. To start they are going to have to restructure Romo, which only pushes the problem back further, and after the restructure, they will still need to cut and restructure just to get to the even cap number.
When we think about the cap, the one thing I have learned is it is not about if a team gets under the cap, but how. Restructuring contracts just punt the problem to the next year or two. I am glad we are in such good shape.
Worried we might have too much for Pep and Chud
in Colts Football
Posted
We do have a lot of depth right now at WR and TE. I think you are going to see Josh Lenz (WR) cut. I admit I did not even know he was on the team. That saves 420K, and you may see Wesley Saunders, Mr. irrelevant cut. Saves us 645K, and he is going into his 3rd year, so if he is not in our plans to sign him after this year, might as well take the cap savings. Total of 1M cap savings never hurts.