stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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7 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
Is that pressures when we blitz, or all pass plays
This is all pass plays...
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7 minutes ago, krunk said:
Ballard has a whole staff full of stat guys like you with the same charts and graphs. I think they have a different interpretation on the data then your take. It's impossible that he isn't aware of how the numbers come about what influences the numbers to fall a certain way. They haven't made major changes in the starting personnel on the DL. And I say this with respect to you. I don't sacks are luck bc people are taught how to get after the QB and how to beat blocks. They just don't luck into it unless we want to say Freeneys gold jacket was all luck. What else did he do good besides rush the passer?
I never said they are just luck. But they have a much larger luck component than pressures.
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5 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:
But we havent got to the draft yet. All Im saying is maybe he is taking care of these things so he can be more targeted in the draft?
We haven't got to this draft. We've seen him draft for 7 years before. But fair enough... lets see him overhaul the weapons and pass defense with the limited resources we have in the draft.
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12 minutes ago, csmopar said:
If it’s cheap enough, why does it matter? Again, it’s not like he’s signing another RB to a 10 mil per year contract.
people complain about the lack of depth, Ballard signs depth, people complain that he signed said depth. Geeze
Precisely because I don't expect AJ Dillon to be one of the cheapest options for a backup RB and precisely because we are already spending 14M a year on Taylor. If he comes at a vet minimum or thereabout, I will change my tune. I just don't expect that. Again - resource allocation... we continue spending more and more resource on the things that are not the most pressing needs for this team. We need to improve the passing game on O and we need to improve the pass defense on D the most right now. And instead we are spending 7m a year for backup nose tackle who in the best case scenario will barely see the field and more money on a backup RB when teams are getting not just backups but starters late in the draft or even as UDFAs... I don't mind us getting depth... I mind us spending more than we need to for backups at non-essential positions.
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4 minutes ago, csmopar said:
Well that chart actually shows the pressure rate in relation to the blitz rate. If you look at the horizontal, we have 32+ percent pressure rate.
the vertical shows the blitz rate, we blitzed very rarely. Something I think has to change. But on that same token, it shows that when we did blitz we got pressure 32 percent of the time.
this isn’t a chart showing the number of total pressures but rather a chart showing the numbers of pressures we got when we blitzed
No it doesn't. It shows blitz rate on the vertical axis and pressure rates in general(not just when we blitz) on the horizontal axis. It shows 2 things:
1. We don't blitz a lot compared to the rest of the league
2. We don't get pressure a lot compared to the rest of the league
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2 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:
If you are looking to add important positions, or guys who you hope will become cornerstones of your team, doesnt it make sense to draft and develop those players instead of throwing tons of money at veterans?
I think this makes perfect sense.
Both $ and draft picks are resources. And it's not like his draft resource allocation has been much different than his $ resource allocation. He's spending on what he believes in. We are paying 40+M for DTs... we have one of the most expensive OLs in the league. We have spend a #ton of picks on the DL in addition to the money... This is nothing new. Ballard has told us repeatedly what he believes in and he's been backing it up with everything he does. From FA to trades to the draft.
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18 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:
They lost Moss and need a backup running back which is what Dillon is. What’s not to get?
... again... the resource allocation.
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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:
Okay. Fair enough. I guess I’m saying is that I don’t understand how we can have 60 sacks, 53 hits, out of 281 pressures. And that be a total bad thing
It's not a total bad thing. Our DLs converted pressures well last year, we had good sack production. The bad thing is that this is not sustainable. Teams don't convert over 20% of their pressures to sacks usually. In fact, the Colts were the only team that did it last year.
3 minutes ago, csmopar said:I looked it up, we had 1148 snaps total, that’s passing and running plays combined, on D according to PFF. Of those 1148, we got pressure of some sort 281 times. That’s 24.45 percent. Basically we were gettin in the back field once every 4 snaps.
24% doesn't tell us much of anything unless we compare it to the rest of the league. Here it is compared to the rest of the league...
This shows the Colts as one of the worst teams in the league at creating pressure.
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We are returning everybody...
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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:
Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused
Because our pressure numbers are extremely low. They are some of the lowest in the league and they don't correspond to what we got as sack production. Meaning - we were extremely lucky to get that many sacks when you consider how many pressures we got. It also means, in the future you might expect regression to the mean(i.e. much lower sack numbers, if our pass rush(pressures) doesn't improve considerably)
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1 minute ago, Solid84 said:
I did the math on it in another thread some time ago.
The Colts were clear #1 with the Chiefs being 2nd at 19% and all other top teams being no higher than 17%.
Thanks... yeah. I knew those would be the ballpark figures, but I wasn't 100% certain. For example, I knew that for AR his 9% was one of the lowest ever and Levis was in the high 20s and it was one of the highest ever of highly drafted QBs, so my assumption was that for teams it would be somewhere in the middle...
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11 minutes ago, Solid84 said:
Pressures are a total of sacks and hits (and hurries if you follow PFF).
PFF numbers: The Colts had 281 total pressures in 2023 - 60 sacks (they count half sacks as 1 to each player), 53 hits and 168 hurries.
This ranked 25th among all teams with the Ravens (397), The 49'ers (389) and the Dolphins (361) being top 3.
Yep that tracks... that's very high pressure to sack ratio... over 21%. If I had to guess most other teams are much lower than us - more in the 15% range...
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2 minutes ago, csmopar said:
But my question is this: do sacks also count as pressures?
I think they do(not 100% sure).
2 minutes ago, csmopar said:so let’s say you have 20 pressures and 10 sacks. Does that mean you have 10 times that you didn’t get the sack and 10 times that you did! Or does it mean you actually got pressure 30 times but only got 10 sacks, but the other 20 were “pressures” because you broke into the pocket?
Bidding war… we rarely win those
Again... I think it would mean you got 10 pressures with sacks + 10 pressures without sacks. But those are usually not the right proportions. (I know you are using it just as an example, but I wanted to point out what the real proportions usually are) Usually the pressure to sack ratio is about 15-20%) Meaning for every 10 sacks you would be getting about 50-65 pressures(a ton more plays you are impacting)... again my numbers are probably not 100% correct, but this is the ballpark figure.
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1 minute ago, Jackie Daytona said:
So we were the highest we've ever been for sacks, but extremely low pressuring the QB? That seems odd ... not doubting, just....odd. which would be on brand for the Colts.
Yep. Sacks have a luck/happenstance component. Pressures are much more a process stat. Are you good at beating the OL to the QB? In most of the cases you won't sack him, but most pressures will severely impact the QB's ability to execute the offense as it is designed. Of course there is some additional value to actually finishing the play with a sack, but in tons of cases it's not just on the defender beating the OL for it to result in a sack. You need other things to go right for you - the QB to not throw the ball away earlier, or make a quick hit to outlet receiver... or for the QB to not get away from the pressure(even if the defender did a great job beating the OL)... or sometimes a QB will run into pressure and a sack without the defender actually winning against the OL.
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Not sure if I saw this posted here earlier:
I really don't get Ballard...
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1 minute ago, Jackie Daytona said:
That's the sacks thing we were discussing earlier, not pressure rates.
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Come on, Jim! Give Ballard the required push to make it happen!
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5 minutes ago, BProland85 said:
And he won’t be that expensive as he’s 30. If he signs for around 5 or 6 mil per season elsewhere Ballard missed out yet again.
Indy needs both Blackmon and another veteran safety as well.
Don't quote me on that but I think someone mentioned Blackmon has scrubbed everything Colts related from his social media. No idea if this means much...
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35 minutes ago, tfunky14 said:
I think top 8 is fair.
I just completely disagree with that evaluation...
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7 minutes ago, Jackie Daytona said:
More pressure from the DL on passers than ever for us, more than any year with Freeney and Mathis, more than any year with next to zero blitzing.... and overall, avg. Runstopping.... would be slightly above avg. I think if a few things went out way (no Grover suspended, JT able to grind first downs all year long to help keep D off field....
And it's how horrible?
Can you give a source for all those? Because the stats I'm seeing show we were one of the teams with lowest pressure rates in the league. I posted one of the graphs above...
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8 minutes ago, NFLfan said:
I would do it but I don't think we could get enough compensation. Did you see the rumor about Cincy trading Higgins and their #1 for Jefferson? I think we would need more.
Would the new regime in New England give up #3?
Yeah, no idea... but you have to try if you really love the QB that's sitting there at 3...
8 minutes ago, NFLfan said:I think the Colts should try to move up for Nabers, Odunze or Marvin Harrison Jr.
Same... either that or try to trade for Jefferson or another top tier WR.
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6 minutes ago, NFLfan said:
Hopefully but I don't know if I like anyone but Daniels. Unless we him to second, we probably cannot draft him. Our GM liked Richardson a lot last year.
We can give you some picks for Jefferson so you can try to move up to 3? Or does it look like your FO has no intention of trading Jefferson?
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So @NFLfan are you guys going for a QB in the draft?
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3 minutes ago, krunk said:
When did sacks become luck? Obviously there's pressure from somewhere happening
They are heavily influenced by luck on a team basis. We had really high sack numbers and really low pressure numbers. In the long run what's more predictive and descriptive of the strength of the pass-rush is the pressure rates, not the sacks.
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Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)
in Colts Football
Posted
No it doesn't. It shows what it says it shows. Pressure rate(in general) and blitz rate. It can help you see whether teams that blitz more, create more pressures in general. But it also shows you those two specific things as well...