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FalseStart

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    Gene Frenette: AFC South script flipped, Colts now where Jaguars used to be

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    Only four years ago, the AFC South landscape was essentially flipped upside down. A Super Bowl-contending window had been open for the Indianapolis Colts, buoyed by the 2012 drafting of quarterback Andrew Luck. The Jaguars were bottom-feeders, one year into a massive rebuild under new head coach (Gus Bradley) and general manager (Dave Caldwell).

    Now the division rivals have traded places. It’s the Jaguars, one play away against the New England Patriots from advancing to the Super Bowl last season, who appear to have a roster built to contend for at least another two years, maybe longer.

    The Colts, like the Jaguars of 2013-15, are bereft of talent at so many positions, it’ll take the shoulder-impaired Luck shaking off a ton of rust and Indianapolis hitting the mother lode in this week’s NFL draft to seemingly have any shot at a respectable season.

    Luck hasn’t thrown a pass with any velocity since engineering a 24-20 comeback win over the Jaguars on the final drive to end the 2016 season. Even if he returns to form, which is a big if, that still may not be enough to save the roster-challenged Colts.

    Remember how the Jaguars’ defense was an abomination before the acquisitions of Malik Jackson, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye the past two years? Indianapolis has been a similar pushover for quite a while, and without Luck to bail them out last season, the Colts evolved into being almost as bad as Jacksonville during the Bradley years.

    With Chris Ballard in his second year as GM, and the hiring of ex-Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich to replace head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts enter 2018 with some optimism. But the reality is, as it was for the Jaguars during their downturn, the roster has too many holes to plug to expect an immediate turnaround.

    Caldwell couldn’t fix his roster after three full drafts and free agency periods. Though Ballard has a prime opportunity this week with five of the top 67 picks in the draft, what are the odds that he pulls off what the Jaguars did in 2016 when Ramsey, Jack and Ngakoue fell to them with the first three picks?

    One of the big reasons the Colts have serious personnel issues at offensive line, linebacker, wide receiver (outside T.Y. Hilton), running back and no standout pass-rusher is their 2013 and ’14 draft classes are all gone except guard Jack Mewhort. Their top two picks in the ’15 draft are also history, with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett traded to the New England Patriots for quarterback Jacoby Brissett and cornerback D’Joun Smith already out of the league.

    Not many NFL teams outside the Patriots can survive, let alone flourish, by getting little or nothing out of essentially two-and-a-half draft classes. Indianapolis not only has to hit the reset button in a big way, there’s no assurance Luck will again be the elite quarterback he was before his shoulder injury. If that doesn’t happen, it makes the Colts’ rebuild every bit as daunting as the Jaguars’ task when they began their overhaul. 

    Indianapolis, which is making the long overdue switch from a 3-4 defensive scheme to a 4-3, has some decent parts along the defensive line. But there’s nobody like a J.J. Watt, Campbell or Ngakoue who makes it a nightmare for offensive coordinators in game-planning.

    Here’s why Luck can be a game-changer: the Colts lost seven of nine games last season in which they led at halftime, but were 32-4 in those situations with Luck under center from 2012-16. But Indianapolis also had better offensive personnel around Luck then, and the AFC South, especially the Jaguars, was pretty easy pickings. No more.

    Even if Luck plays at a reasonably high level in 2018, the Colts – adjusting to a new coaching staff and new system -- still look very much like a team that’s two or three years away from being a playoff contender.

    A team that once rode a 16-game AFC South winning streak, which the Jaguars broke in a 51-16 rout at EverBank Field in 2015 with Luck out of the lineup, might be looking at a long uphill climb back to relevancy.

    The Jaguars know all too well about that predicament. The Colts are going to need a lot more than Luck to pull themselves out of a similar mess.

     
     
    • Like 1

    Double chubble

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, HectorRoberts said:

    I love Kelly! He’s one of my favorite players in the draft I think he’s a lot like Mack which is why I don’t see us going for him but I’ll definitely be following this kids career 

    NFL network had Hines on... 70 catches, punt returner, fastest 40 among RBs, well spoken.., if we go Chubb... he would be a nice addition. Teammates with Chubb in college and pros

    If there is a specific player at pick 17, would you trade pick 37 and pick 49 to move up? If so, who would that player be?

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, wig said:

     

    To think there is absolutely no way Ballard would trade up is crazy. If someone he sees as a high level starter at a position of need falls, he would 100% consider it. 

     

    Say we trade #6 to Buffalo for #12, #22, then following this scenario (#37, #49 for #17...).  There would be 3 picks in RD1 w/ #36 in round two available... net picks still 4 through rounds 1-2. Probably won't happen...didn't see any topics on trading back-up.  Thought I would pose the idea...interesting views by all.

     

    #12: Edmunds, James, Smith, Landry, etc...

    #17: McGlinchey, Ridley, Guice, Hurst, etc...

    #22: Hernandez, Daniels, Sutton, Evans, etc...

    #36: Moore, Harrison, O'Neil, Smith G, etc...

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