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Caleb3502

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Posts posted by Caleb3502

    Tampering is upon us!

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    I don't see Ballard handing out any huge contracts as we have seen with Alexander, Brown, and Collins.  Looks like he will go after mid-tier free agents again after the first wave of free agency, which I am totally fine with.  I don't think I want Mosely if his contract eclipses what Alexander got or Flowers if it is in the $20M/year range.  

    • Like 1

    Mock Off-season 2.0

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

     

    I try not to evaluate the off-season mocks of other posters.   I think I've done two this year and both times it was requested that I offer my opinion.    But what I have done is offer some comments about the money that posters want us to spend,  and that's why I'd like to do here...

     

    We'll start with the re-signing of our own players.

     

    I don't see Desir returning on a 2/10 deal.   I think it would take a minimum of 3/15 and maybe even 3/18 to get him back.   And I don't think that would be a lock.

     

    Not sure if Geathers returns on a 1/4 deal.    

     

    I think Inman would come back for 1/4.5 as you offered,  but there is zero chance that we're guaranteeing all of it.    It simply isn't done.    You almost never offer 100 percent guaranteed.   I think Kirk Cousins was the first to get this.     We'd might do 2 Mill guaranteed --- tops -- but maybe less.

     

    Free Agency:

     

    I think we might be able to sign Humphries for 4/42,  but I don't think we'd guarantee 20 Mill.  The Colts front office does an amazing job in contract Negotiations.   For example,  I think Hilton and AC, their guarantees were in the teens.   

     

    I think there's no chance whatsoever that we're paying Collins 5/62.5.   That's 12.5 per year.   I'd peg that as a non-starter.   And I think there's less than a zero percentchance of $36 MIll being guarantted.    Doubt we'd do $26 Mill guaranteed.    We might do $16 MIll.    But the monies on Collins are completely unrealistic, especially for the Colts.    Sorry.

     

     

    Wilson and Fleming are fine.

     

    But the Za'Darius Smith deal is WAY off.    He's not signing with anyone for 3/26.   Not the Colts or anyone else.   Smith is likely getting a 4 or 5 year deal for roughly $10 Mill per,  maybe more.   He's a pass rusher coming off his best season and those guys get paid.    There's a lot of money in the FA pool this year and guys will get paid,  (even overpaid)  based on the Law of Supply and Demand.    And the demand is always great.   So we'd have to step up bigtime to get Smith,  and I'd like to get him.

     

    Please don't take my comments here personally.   Many (most?) posters here  struggle with the money aspect of FA.

     

    Otherwise,  I always want to say thanks for the time and effort you put into this....   Appreciate it.         :thmup:

     

     

     

     

    I don't necessarily disagree with anything you outlined here, and I appreciate the feedback.  I do have some questions and notes regarding your response: 

     

    You are most likely right on Desir getting three years, I just felt that with his age coming on 29 that a 2-year deal would be what Ballard would want, but I can see the market pushing that third year if we want him back.  A lot of other CBs on the market are nearing or in their late twenties so a 3-year/$6 M or more deal is definitely possible.  I think if it gets much beyond $6 M that Ballard will get Desir's replacement in the draft.  

     

    As you said, Inman will most likely not get a fully guaranteed contract. Vinatieri got $2 M guaranteed with his deal, so your figure makes sense. 

     

    Geathers is tough to gauge because we don't know what the market will be like for him. If he doesn't have any takers in FA I could see him coming back on a small 1-year deal.  There's a lot of quality young safeties on the market and I'm not sure if Geathers would get a much bigger deal with his injury history. What type of contract do you see Geathers getting?

     

    For Humphries, $20 M is a little high but I think it could be close to that.  Hilton has $28 M in guarantees ($11 M at signing) in his 5 Year/$65 M contract and AC has $35 M in guarantees ($18 M at signing) for his 4 year/$43.8 M contract. Ballard seems to be in a range of about 30 to 45% of the contract being guaranteed, so at like 40% it would be about $17 M, which I could see. 45% would be $18.9, so $20 M is a little high.  

     

    I have no real argument for the Collins contract other than that is what I typically saw in online and from other posters https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/3/5/18251016/landon-collins-to-the-colts.  What do you believe would be a realistic contract if the Colts go after Collins?  I'm also not set on getting Collins, I originally had Amani Hooker in my mock at #89 and I would be totally fine on passing on Collins for A. Hooker or another SS in the draft.  

     

    I also have no real argument for the Smith contract, he is more than likely getting $10 M+ because that is how the market goes, especially with many pass rushers on the tag, so I agree with you 100%. 

    • Thanks 1

    What free agents would you like to sign.

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    Players I think Ballard should consider: 

     

    WR 

    Adam Humphries 

    Tyrell Williams 

    Jamison Crowder 

     

    EDGE 

    Za'Darrius Smith 

    Preston Smith 

    Trey Flowers 

    Dante Fowler Jr. 

     

    LB 

    C.J. Mosely 

    Damien Wilson

    Jordan Hicks 

     

    S 

    Landon Collins 

    Tyrann Mathieu 

     

    Realistically I would prioritize getting Humphries and Collins or Flowers.  If we get Collins but not Flowers, I would go after Fowler or Z. Smith.  

     

    Lions not expected to re-sign Ansah

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    He'll be 30 before the season starts and is coming off a 4 sack-season with injuries.  Had 12 sacks in 2017 but had 2 sacks in 2016 and 14.5 sacks in 2015.  Has been up and down and I do not think he will be worth the contract he would command.  Spotrac has him at $13.5 M/year.  I would much rather pursue Flowers.  If Flowers doesn't work out, which seems likely with his contract figure and Miami connection, go after either Za'Darrius Smith, Preston Smith, or Dante Fowler Jr.  

    • Thanks 1

    Mock Off-season 2.0

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    Thought I would do one more mock offseason before free agency begins on March 13 at 4 p.m.  Opening cap space will be after the already completed signings.   

     

    Cap Space: $102,447,644

     

    Colts Free Agents

     

    Unrestricted FAs

    Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

    Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

    Najee Goode OLB

    Mark Glowinski G - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

    Adam Vinatieri K - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

    Ryan Grant WR

    Geneo Grissom DE

    Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

    Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$9 M 

    J. J. Wilcox SS

    Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

    Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

    Mike Mitchell FS

    Matt Slauson G  - Retired 

    J'Marcus Webb OT

     

    Restricted FAs

    Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

    Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

    Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

    Corey Moore FS

    Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

    Ross Travis TE - 1 Year/720 K 

     

    Exclusive-Rights FAs

    Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

    Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

     

    Added Cap spent on Re-Signings: $18,163,903

    Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $84,283,741

     

    Free Agents

     

    WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed)  Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career.  

     

    S Landon Collins - 5 Years/$62 M (36 M Guaranteed) 25 years old and is the only S to record 95+ tackles over each of the last 4 seasons.  Even if we re-sign Geathers, our defense uses a lot of 3 Safety sets, and there is no guarantee Geathers makes it through all 16 games.  Collins would be an upgrade at SS, and Ballard had said that while he is comfortable with our S group that an upgrade is possible.   

     

    OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$16 M  Eberfus was his linebackers coach in Dallas.  He's a less expensive option than Mosely that should work very well in our scheme and fills up that last spot needed in our LB trio.  

     

    EDGE Za'Darrius Smith - 3 Years/$26 M ($12 M Guaranteed)  Trey Flowers seems like he will command a $17 M+/year contract and seems to have close ties to joining Miami, joining his DC Flores.  Smith is 26 and is coming off a career-high 8.5 sacks in Baltimore. In my original draft of this mock, I had us getting Mosely, but I feel that the Ravens will find a way to secure Mosely but cannot realistically retain him and Smith. Smith is a cheaper option that will still be very productive on the EDGE.    

     

    T Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M OL depth and is still young at 27 when the season starts. 

     

    Cap spent this year for Free Agents: $39,800,000

    Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $44,483,741

     

    NFL Draft

     

    Round 1: DT Dre'Mont Jones Ohio State Athletic 3-Tech that is an excellent pass rusher. Run defense is on the weaker side but he can develop into a very strong DT. 

    Round 2: WR A.J. Brown Mississippi Can be a very productive slot receiver that can move the chains and gets YAC.  A WR group of Hilton-Humphries-Brown-Inman would be very solid for Luck. 

    Round 2: CB Amani Oruwariye Penn State His size (6'1" 204 lb) and his excellent ball skills & awareness makes him an excellent outside/zone CB.  Even if we re-sign Desir, Desir is getting older (29 during the season) and we need more young talent at the position. 

    Round 3: LB Vosean Joseph Florida Good depth at the WILL and has physical tools that can be developed.  

    Round 4: DE Anthony Nelson Iowa Solid edge rusher that had 9.5 sacks in 2018.  Adds pass rush rotational depth to the line. 

    Round 4: OT Max Sharping Northern Illinois - Adds OL depth. 

    Round 5: S Will Harris Boston College  Can cover the TE and would be good interchangeable depth at SS. No guarantee that any of our safeties play all 16 games so grabbing another S for depth, especially at SS, is important.  

    Round 6: RB Mike Weber Ohio State Excels at running up the middle churning out yards that meet our bruiser back need.  

    Round 7: TE Dax Raymond Utah St. Reich and Ballard like to use TEs.  Adding a young TE to the mix with the last pick is not a bad idea. 

     

    Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $8,015,052

     

    Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $36,468,689

     

    Roster

    Free Agent in Red  

    Rookie in Green 

     

    Offense

    QB: Luck, Brissett, Walker

    RB: Mack, Hines, Wilkins, Williams, Weber 

    WR: Hilton, Humphries, Inman, Brown, Cain, Fountain, Pascal, Rogers, Johnson, Wright  

    TE: Ebron, Doyle, Travis, Alie-Cox, Hewitt, Raymond 

    LT: Castonzo, Fleming, Scharping 

    LG: Nelson

    C: Kelly, Boehm, Andrews

    RG: Glowinski, Haeg

    RT: Smith, Clark

     

    Defense

    DT: Autry, Hunt, Jones, Ridgeway, Stewart, Ward

    DE: Sheard, Smith, Lewis, Turay, Nelson, Muhammed, Phillips 

    LB: Leonard, Walker, Wilson, Joseph, Franklin, Adams, Moore, Thomas

    CB: Desir, Moore, Wilson, Oruwariye, Hairston, Milton 

    S: Hooker, Collins, Geathers, Farley, Harris, Odum, Martin, Milligan 

     

    Special Teams 

    K: Vinatieri

    P: Sanchez

    LS: Rhodes

    • Like 2

    Report: Jaguars expected to sign Nick Foles

    in NFL General

    Posted

    This is one way the Jaguars could create cap space: 

     

    Release Malik Jackson - Saves $11 Million 

    Release Blake Bortles - Saves $4.5 Million 

    Release Tashaun Gibson - Saves $7.45 Million

    Release Carlos Hyde - Saves $4.7 Million 

    Restructure Calais Campbell - Saves $5.485 Million

    Restructure A.J. Bouye - Saves $8.13 Million

    Restructure Marcell Dareus - Saves $952,000

    Restructure Marquise Lee - Saves $4.3 Million

     

    Jaguars would have $44,797,303 in cap space if they made these moves.   

      

    • Like 1

    Report: Jaguars expected to sign Nick Foles

    in NFL General

    Posted

    Contract will probably be around 3 years/$60 Million.  He's only been the main starter for two seasons of his career, given he has only had double digit starts in a season twice: 11 with the Rams in 2015 and 10 starts for the Eagles in 2013.  He had a 27 TD and 2 INTs in 2013 but had 7 TD and 10 INT in 2015.  His whole career he does well and then falls off again.  It will be interesting to see how he fairs as a full-time starter again.  

    The Draft Network: New Big Board Builder and Draft Simulator

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    Just did one on the site today and got this: 

     

    26 Christian Wilkins, IDL Clemson

    34 Montez Sweat, EDGE Mississippi State

    59 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford

    89 Amani Hooker, CB Iowa

    129 Hunter Renfrow, WR Clemson

    135 Kendall Sheffield, CB Ohio State

    164 Max Scharping, OT Northern Illinois

    199 Mike Weber, RB Ohio State

    240 Khalil Hodge, LB Buffalo

     

    Sweat being there at #34 is unlikely but I don't think the other picks are that way off for the rounds the players should go in. 

    • Like 1

    History of the 26th Pick

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    2 hours ago, chad72 said:

    2016 Paxton Lynch should be the Broncos, right?

     

    Future 1st, and a current 2nd and 3rd from a QB needy team like the Dolphins or Giants, prime spot for a team that needs QB to get back into Round 1 to get a QB for 5 years with the 5th year option.

     

    I am hoping that happens.

     

     

    Yes, you're right about Lynch. Had two Falcons in a row so I must have lost track.  I would be interested in the trade you outlined, but what QB do you think will still be available at around #26 that is worth a 1st rounder? I feel like Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Jones will all be off the board by #26.  Maybe Will Grier?

    History of the 26th Pick

    in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk

    Posted

    All the players during the last 10 years that have been taken at 26: 

     

    2018: WR Calvin Ridley - Falcons 

    2017: DE Takkarist McKinley - Falcons 

    2016: QB Payton Lynch - Falcons 

    2015: WR Breshad Perriman - Ravens 

    2014: LB Marcus Smith - Eagles 

    2013: DE Datone Jones - Packers 

    2012: OLB Whitney Mercilus - Texans 

    2011: WR Jonathan Baldwin - Chiefs 

    2010: NT Dan Williams - Cardinals 

    2009: OLB Clay Matthews - Packers 

     

    Of these 10, only 4 are still on the team that drafted them: Ridley, McKinney, Mercilus, and Matthews.  Jonathan Baldwin and Dan Williams are currently out of the NFL. 

     

    Other notable 26th picks in history: 

    * = HOF 

     

    2008: T Duane Brown - Texans 

    2007: LB Anthony Spencer - Cowboys 

    2002: CB Lito Sheppard - Eagles 

    1998: G Alan Faneca - Steelers 

    1996: *LB Ray Lewis - Ravens 

    1993: DT Dana Stubblefield - 49ers 

    1992: DE Robert Porcher - Lions 

    1991: S Henry Jones - Bills 

    1987: QB Jim Harbaugh - Bears 

    1984: RB Greg Bell - Bills 

    1983: C Don Mosebar - Raiders 

    1979: T Kent Hill - Rams 

    1975: CB Dave Brown - Steelers 

    1973: *G Joe DeLamielleure - Bills 

    1969: T Dave Foley - Jets (AFL All-Star)

    1959: RB Wray Carlton - Eagles (3rd round)

    1950: End Jim Martin - Browns (3rd round) 

    1949: C Bill Walsh - Steelers (3rd round)

     

     

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