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Andy

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    Should the Colts Retain Antoine Bethea?

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Antoine Bethea is an unrestricted free agent this season, and his play over the last few seasons suggests that there is a pretty good possibility that he may not be on the team next year. Should the Colts keep him, or should they let him go?


     


     


     


     


    Let's look at how Bethea's been performing the last few seasons. On paper, he's been very solid. He's had 100+ tackles in each of the last 3 seasons, as well as 2 interceptions (total) and 3 sacks. Those numbers are on par with some of the better safeties in the league. However, the stat-sheet only says so much. According to Pro Football Focus, over the last 3 seasons, he didn't finish once in the top 20 (for safeties). In fact, over the last 2 seasons, he didn't even rank in the top 50, and graded out negatively over the course of the two years. That's not a pretty stat, that contradicts the first stat mentioned earlier. Those 2 seasons are a big drop off compared to 2008, 2009, and 2010, and 2011 where he finished in the top 25 every time (top 20 three out of four times). It's obvious that there's been a slight drop off, and even if you look at the basic stats, there's even a drop off there.


     


    When watching him on tape, he looks very hesitant and he's missing more tackles than usual. This is a guy who established a reputation for being one of the most sure tacklers in the league, and now he's missing nearly 1 tackle a game (on average). Also, when watching tape, he's not as quick to react to certain things. For example, in coverage, he's not making reads very quickly, and in turn, the receivers are able to beat him a lot of the time. I don't know if I can't say that he's a liability in coverage, but he's definitely not an asset.


     


    In terms of his performance over the last two seasons, it hasn't been great, and it's definitely not on par with what the Colts expect from Bethea.


     


    Let's say the Colts do decide to replace Bethea, who are the possible replacements? There are many options in free agency and some in the draft.


     


    In free agency, the safety class this season is among the best we've ever seen. The headliners are T.J Ward and Jairus Byrd, two superstars that are playmakers. Both are expected to get big paydays and unless the Colts want to spend big money, they shouldn't touch those guys. More realistic options include: Miami Dolphins safety Chris Clemons, Detroit Lions safety Louis Delmas, and Philadelphia Eagles safety Nate Allen. All are most likely cheaper options than Bethea, and have the potential to put up similar numbers. Clemons had a very good season with the Dolphins, and was a huge boost for them in coverage. Delmas was the same, and was only released from the Lions because of cap issues. Nate Allen, although not as good as the first two guys, has ties to Grigson and could fit nicely in the system. All 3 graded out better than Bethea this past season (according to Pro Football Focus). All in all, it's one of the best safety classes we've ever seen, and to put it in perspective, Bethea only ranks 7th (in my opinion) amongst the available safeties. It goes to show you there is a lot of talent.


     


    As for the draft, it's going to be very hard for the Colts to make some noise in the draft thanks to the little amount of picks they have. The best safety in the draft is Hasean Clinton Dix, with Calvin Pryor being a close second. Both are expected to be long gone before the Colts make their first pick in the 2nd round. Ed Reynolds is a possbility for the Colts in the 2nd round, and could be a nice fit in the system. Jimmie Ward could also fit nicely.


     


    Despite the fact that there are prospects in the draft, the problem with rookies is that they are unpredictable and are question marks, MUCH BIGGER question marks than a free agent would be. You generally know what to expect from a free agent. Sometimes they disapoint, sometimes they flourish, but in general, you have a general idea of how they'll perform in the system. Plus, once you start getting into the middle rounds (4th and 5th), they become giant question marks. This draft may have a decent class, but where the Colts are picking, it would be better to avoid getting replacements through the draft.


     


    Let's return to the original question: should the Colts retain Antoine Bethea? Unless the Colts are willing to put up big money for guys like TJ Ward, Jairus Byrd or Donte Whitner, then it would be in their best interest to keep Bethea for the right price. In his last contract, Bethea averaged 6.5M a year. In this next contract, he cannot make a dime over 6.5M and should actually take a slightly smaller contract. The Colts should not be willing to give him something for more than 5.5M a year (on average), or else they'll be losing value. If the price is right, they should definitely keep Bethea, because he's a leader and he knows the defense, but he is not a guy that you overpay to keep.


     


    What do you guys think?

    Denver's o-line made three critical mistakes early, hurting Denver's momentum throughout.

    in NFL General

    Posted

    The offensive line was pretty bad, but also, Manning made some horrendous decisions too. 

     

    He knows he's going to get hit, his arm as well, and he decides that he wants to fling it down the field. He was not smart in this game. 

     

    He was also not in sync as well. 

     

    The irony is, the offense that carried them all season, failed them in this game. The defense only allowed 29 points, which considering all the things that happened (bad field position, picks, great ST play from the Seahawks) is not that bad. It's the OFFENSE that failed them, and that offense starts with Peyton Manning. My favorite player of all time, but I won't shy away from saying he was a bust in this game. 

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