Superman

Just look at how many of our sacks last year came against bad QBs with bad OLs. Sacks are circumstantial to a large degree. And generally speaking, a defense's sack rate rises with some kind of correlation to the pressure rate. For the 2023 Colts, our sack rate went up, while our pressure rate went down. Unless you can point to some reason why the Colts are able to convert fewer pressures into more sacks, the most reasonable conclusion is that our sack output was basically the product of favorable circumstances.

Thanks for answering. And to be clear, your posts have not bothered me at all. I appreciate a robust discussion. Something I find ironic is being encouraged by Ballard signing a FA who is rated poorly by PFF. Especially when PFF's grades and charting indicate that Davis is not a serious pass rush threat. As for the link to the new DL coach, I guess we'll see. The guy comes highly regarded, I hope he helps get the best out of the players we have, and in general I like the outside hire at a crucial position. But everyone seems awfully deferential to the approach of a guy who has never coached in the NFL. If Ballard is taking cues from Partridge as it relates to team building and resource allocation, it raises serious questions for me. Especially when this decision, IMO, speaks to a continued resistance by the Colts to upgrade the roster in the areas that I think are important for winning in the modern NFL. And that's the big thing for me, and why maybe you sense a different tone in my posting. For the record, I've stated in the past that I think it's time for Ballard and Co. to get this thing going, and now that we have the coach and the QB (presumably), the rest of the roster should be tuned up. It's appropriate for the discussion around Ballard -- his methods, and the results -- to change at this point. Specifically in this case, I think we're deficient in pass defense and pass rush, and that we should be committing resources to improve those areas. Instead, we committed resources to players that are themselves deficient in those areas -- Franklin isn't good in coverage, Grover isn't a difference making pass rusher, and Davis is less of a pass rusher than Grover. And that limits the resources we can use on players who might help improve the pass rush and pass coverage. At least Tyquan Lewis is a productive pass rusher, but he's not exactly going to be the foundation of a great pass rush. So it's not about the individual decisions. It's about the overall direction of the roster. I'm happy to be proven wrong, because what I ultimately want is for the Colts to be good and to contend for championships. But I think decisions this offseason will limit our ability to improve in these critical areas. Keeping Gus Bradley, and then paying three defenders who don't help improve our pass defense, these decisions are somewhat discouraging to me. I think they could combine to put a limit on our defensive potential. And if the new DL coach is influencing the roster building to the degree that we're spending $96m on the defensive front in a way that probably doesn't improve the pass defense or the pass rush, then it dampens my enthusiasm for him also. More likely, Ballard is making these moves because -- as he's always said -- he believes building the trenches is as important as anything else when it comes to team building. Charlie Partridge doesn't need to nudge him in this direction, IMO; this is Ballard's own DNA.

I don't know if threads about other players have been merged into this thread. I think individual signings are worthy of their own thread, but the rumors and and other discussion has mostly been in this thread. So if people want to start a thread for individual signings, that should be fine.

Why are you glad we signed him?

My disagreement is with the way we're using resources. I think there are certain areas where the team needs to make significant improvements, and I would have liked to see the cap allocated to those areas. Backup/rotational NT/DT isn't one of those areas.

Eric Johnson played close to 300 snaps. I think he'll have a role for sure, but we agree that backup NT isn't where we should have been committing resources.

Yeah sorry, I wasn't disagreeing with you. Just piggybacking on your point, and explaining why I think the restructure is happening now.

Taven Bryan played over 300 snaps last year. Davis will have a role. It just doesn't move the needle for this team in the AFC. There are obvious things that separate the Colts from the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens, etc. Interior run defenders are not among the top ten on that list.

They were always going to restructure Mahomes. It just makes sense to wait until you have more clarity on the other moves you're making, and how much you need to restructure to be cap compliant as of the start of the league year. I don't really think it says anything about Sneed. That decision has ramifications past this season, including what they plan to do with McDuffie. If they were/are going to extend Sneed, they can structure his deal with a lower 2024 cap hit anyway.

I would have signed Davis, and let Grover walk. Half the money, shorter contract, similar player/production.

Of course he does. He's basically said it.

If there's a signing bonus, it automatically impacts the 2024 cap. The details should make things clear, but most likely, his 2024 cap number will change.

His movement, pocket presence, arm strength, and accuracy, were all noticeably worse last year. He gives nothing off schedule. He got hurt again last season. And he's suspended the first two games of the season. I see him as a shadow of 2022 Matt Ryan.

I think Jimmy G is toast.

Much? Not sure. But I think he does literally everything better than Ehlinger. Edit: He gone.

I guess we'll see. I wonder if Minshew and Darnold kind of stole his thunder, and if the remaining teams who need starters will be looking for younger players. Even the Pats went with Brissett, who's five years younger. And as far as backup spots go, I think the Colts would be considered a decent opportunity, because Richardson's ability to stay healthy is still in question. But that's JMO.

I don't want Dobbs. I happened to actually watch the guy play last year, and he was worse than I think people realize. I'd consider Drew Lock, but I think the best fit from that list is Tannehill. Huntley would be a nice backup, but if we need someone to play for a few games, I'd rather have Tannehill. And then maybe keep in mind that the Falcons and Giants might be considering moving off of Daniel Jones and Desmond Ridder. I'm a Steichen believer, and I think any of these guys would benefit from being coached by him.

I might disagree with the idea that the draft is loaded, but I will say that DB and WR appear to be strengths of this draft class. I think WR will be a strength of every draft class, though. It's also strong at OL. I don't think it's going to happen, but I'd rather have Sneed than any of the corners in this draft. Dude is a proven commodity, and if it could be done for a 2nd rounder (plus), we should be all over it. And I'd even consider adding Pierce to the trade, which is something the Chiefs should think about.

Co-signed.

Totally fair. I'm not absolutely in love with anyone in this mock draft, and I'm still getting familiar with a lot of players. I just really wanted to take a swing at a mock before free agency. On Chop Robinson, I'm still on the fence about him. But I'll say this about Leggette. I like him better than a lot of the WRs that people are mocking ahead of him. AD Mitchell, Worthy, Polk, Coleman... I'd rather have Leggette. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in the 2nd round.

Jeudy is meh. He's just a name everyone likes. who is making $13m but has mediocre production. I want to improve the WR but he wouldn't have been my target.

The sites all say 1.66. But I just realized that 2021 was the year there was no centralized combine, so all the numbers need to be viewed with some skepticism. By the way, I'm not down on Paye. I think he still has some upside, but I would have liked to see more development from him by now. I'm definitely not seeing Micah Parsons. I'm just not lumping him in with every low production edge prospect because I think he has the traits. But you're right, he has a long way to go.

He can actually cover. End of story.

He's better than Ngakoue, but I just don't see him as a super dangerous pass rusher that wrecks the game. I think everyone knows his name because he's been trying to get a new contract for two years. PFF has a stat that I really like, pass rush productivity (PRP). Basically measures the rate of pressures per pass rush, and it's weighted toward sacks (including half sack). Out of all edge rushers who rushed at least 50% of pass snaps, Burns was 39th with a PRP of 6.8. He had 9 sacks in 379 pass rushes. (Ebukam had 10 in 450 rushes, PRP 6.7; Dayo had 12 in 365 rushes, PRP 5.9; Paye had 8 in 410, PRP 4.6.) Jonathan Greenard had 14 sacks in 405 pass rushes, and a PRP of 8.3; he just got four years, $72m. Bryce Huff had 10 sacks in 334 pass rushes, PRP of 12.2; he got three years, $51m. Burns for $30m/year is STEEP. I'm good. That's Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, TJ Watt money. He could also ball out for the Giants, which would be good for them. But this feels like a cautionary tale example that we'll be talking about in a couple years when Joe Schoen gets fired.

I don't think I see Burns as a game changer.