stitches

How would you guys feel about this draft:

Of course Ballard likes them better than us. He likes most of his players more than us... or anyone else. He is the one that's picking them and the one that's re-signing them. Think about it ... in a league where as Ballard says "teams pay A and B money for C and D players", noone likes the Colts players more than Ballard. Or are the Colts the one team whose players are adequately valued in FA?

I think DT is not very likely... RB high is not likely... QB high is not likely... OL high is not likely(although... maybe day 2 for some medium-to-long-term planning in case they expect Kelly retirement soon?)... IMO people underestimate the possibility of us taking a DE high. Safety and LB IMO are two other positions that under the radar might be picks for the Colts as early as day 2.

We don't really know how their process works and whose input is being taken seriously. They have scouts and they have player personnel people... if some of them has not been doing a good job, they should be looking for replacements... but that's true at any level of the team really. Up to and including the GM...

I agree with this, but IMO the worst thing he can do is not even try anymore because he's been bad at it in the past. IMO he should keep trying. As long as he's here, I'd prefer him to try to address those high value positions, rather than give up on them.

Agree with a lot of this, but I don't think it's happening. Ballard is not changing his scheme and likely not changing his DC... and not changing the majority of his players... like we saw, he actually likes what he's building, he resigned almost every big piece of that defense he could have resigned... including the DT that was bullied the whole season. And just like you I don't agree with any of it, but we are working with what we have, not with what we wished we had. So... with that said... knowing that Ballard likes this scheme and this (type of) coach, what should we be doing to make this defense with this coach better? I know this won't be popular for many people but... IMO this defense is super reliant on dominant pass-rush, so... just keep investing in it, keep drafting DEs early... and late... and hope one or two hit. The problem is that Ballard likes even his pass-rushers to be good in run defense so in a lot of cases this eliminates good players from consideration. Yeah... no draft pick is really for sure... even the MHJ or Nabers... but IMO they have significantly higher chance to hit than the day 2 picks. True... the trend has been set for a while now - the draft will have good WR classes almost every year and again, I agree with you... ultimately you just have to keep trying even if the previous one didn't work. What you cannot and shouldn't do is give up on the position. Just keep drafting them.

The problem is... with the way Ballard has handled FA ... so far... we need much more than a WR and TE... we need pass-rush, we need corners, we need safeties... hell, we might need a LB too... so... no idea if Ballard would really put WR and TE atop of this list. In fact, if I had to guess, he wouldn't ... IMO he's more likely to pick DE at 15 than Bowers, even if Bowers is there. And even more likely to just trade back. BTW... I don't think drafting Bowers and WR in the second for sure solve our problems. Just like Alec PIerce didn't solve it. It's possible we get our guy, but far from certain... That's fair. With the slight exception for possible trade for WR or TE. But those are very hypothetical and not entirely up to Ballard.

If he's going to be trading up I prefer he goes for one of the top WRs. I have no idea what his thoughts on the TE group is... he just spent a bunch of picks on TEs in consecutive drafts. I can absolutely see him being with that group the same way he is with his other pet projects - protective of his own picks and decision and determined to make them work until the very end.

I think the offense will go as far as AR takes it... BUT... if we want consistent excellence... rather than being just OK to good, we need better weapons for him. We need better/more dynamic WR, we need better TE... + yeah... better depth at OL. It's hard to say what would have brought us a better(or even good enough) WR or TE in FA. IMO we need to either trade up in the draft for one of the top 3 receivers or we need to try trading for Justin Jefferson or Aiyuk or someone of that sort. We kind of ... don't really need depth at those position. We already have depth. What we are lacking is top tier talent. On the TE front... Brock Bowers I guess is our best bet at getting elite player right now? Maybe Kyle Pitts if he's available for trade somehow? I have my doubts about Bowers but I cannot deny that he looks like a very good player who knows how to play the game and plays with force and determination.

I don't think Indianapolis as a city or the franchise have any significant hindrance to attract top free agents. I think Ballard's approach to free agency and his stated(repeatedly) philosophy of "not paying B players A money", setting a limit on offers beforehand and not going over it, his reluctance to get into bidding wars, etc is much more responsible for the Colts' inability to get top FAs. With all that said I don't necessarily disagree with that philosophy. My biggest gripe with Ballard has been with the areas he focuses his attention to much more than him not getting the top of the market FAs.

The most important is the one we spend big on at the respective moment. When we take a FS in the first, it's the FS like Earl Thomas was in the Seahawks Legion of Boom. When we drafted Leonard high and later gave him the big bucks it was the Will linebacker that's most important. When we spent a good first and big money on Buckner, it was the 3-Tech that's most important. For whatever it's worth, IMO there are multiple positions that can make substantial difference for a defense, almost no matter what system is used. But for ours specifically, IMO the defining characteristic is rushing 4, not blitzing and trying to deny the deep ball. Trying to deny the deep ball can be done through scheming -dropping deep, giving cushion to receivers, etc. Or it can be done with a dominant ballhawking free safety(but those are just so freaking rare...). What you cannot scheme up is pressure, especially when you don't blitz so, in my opinion, if you absolutely need something in this defense, no questions asked, it's pass-rushers. Both at DE and DT(3Tech). If you are not going to blitz, you need to be able to create pressure with 4. So that 4(and by extension the whole rotation of 7-8 players) needs to be able to disrupt the passer. And herein lies the biggest problem for Ballard's Colts - for the entirety of his tenure with the Colts, we have been unable to create consistent pressure and disrupt the passer.

Would you really be shocked if we did take one, though? Would you?

YUS! More DTs! GIVE US ALL THE DTs!!!

For whatever it's worth:

Oh yeah, the coaching hire is extremely important. For some reason I had remembered their stretch leading into their SB as a bit more impressive than it was. On the bolded - I guess the more current and better example would be the 49ers? They spent a ton of resources on pass-rushers, weapons(retaining Kittle after hitting on him in the draft, WRs - 1st and 2nd round picks, pass-catching RB in McCaffrey ), best LT in the league... and they did try to address the QB too... and might have gotten there in a roundabout way...

Jeremiah released his 3d mock draft and in this one he has trades... https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-3-0 Some notables: - 4 QBs go in the first 4 picks. Minnesota trade up to 4 for McCarthy. @NFLfan how would you feel about that? - Jets trade up to 5 for MHJ. If that pick is available maybe the Colts hould be trying to get it. - Joe Alt OT1 at 7 to TEN - Dallas Turner DE1 at 8 to ATL - Odunze drops to 9. - Brock Bowers to DEN at 12. - Pennix goes 13 to the Raiders - Colts get their pick of CB and pick Quinyon Mitchell - Byron Murphy drops to 27 -

I only have one slight contention here. The SB is the ultimate goal, but arguably becoming a contender in the first place is the more realistic and more achievable end goal. There are a ton of things that need to go your way and becoming a SB champion requires a lot of luck. What doesn't require tons of luck is becoming a legit contending team and the Rams were that even before they got Stafford. They had been hovering around that level for a while before they became champions and even made it to SB LIII with Goff. Of course, not disputing the importance of the QB, but lets not act like getting the QB was what made that team. It was series of moves and acquiring the QB was one of them. For example, if the Colts were as good as the Rams were in that 3-4 year stretch, I'd be perfectly good with our GM. Now I would still want him to pursue the final piece in a franchise QB if we didn't have it, but that type of a record of legitimate chance to go all the way a few years in a row would buy that GM a lot of leeway from me.

IMO this is not a problem whatsoever. In fact... this is what teams should be doing - keep drafting young QB with potential until you hit.

Absolutely... Ballard just is very high on... himself. He likes the guys he has liked before and there is noone that likes his guys like he likes them(thus he's the one resigning them)... My soccer team is in deep financial trouble and can't afford much of any new signings of substance so when asked by reporters about his roster our coach said "If you can't have what you like, you better like what you have". I feel like that with the Colts. Except there is no financial reason for the Colts to limit themselves like that. It's purely philosophical approach by the GM.

I think he paid Johnathan Hankins about 10M per year(30/3) in his first free agency when he was remaking the whole defense. In 2019 he signed Justin Houston for 24/2... and Devin Funchess for 13M... In 2020 - Rivers... In 2021 - none In 2022 - Gilmore In 2023 - none

With all that said...

Spending doesn't mean you will win. You still need to spend smart and you still need to draft well and overall make good decisions. Not spending limits you in your roster construction. I don't know why it's so hard for people to understand. The best teams in the league use ALL available avenues for improving their team. They do not limit themselves artificially with what's possible to achieve. They also concentrate resources into windows of contention. This means at any given time, if you are not spending you are competing against teams that are pouring resources into trying to win it RIGHT NOW. You will just always be at disadvantage because while 1 specific team will need to reload and take their lumps for spending too much in short period of time once in a while, the league as a whole will always have at least a few teams that are in that high spending mode chasing a window for contention. Now... is it possible you strike gold and beat those teams while relying almost exclusively on the draft? It's possible. If you string together a few insane draft classes. But it's not very likely...

Agreed. Tom always brings thoughtful perspective to the forum and I enjoy reading his posts.

We, might... or we might not... or we might lose someone else to injury. It's just what happens in the league. If it's not one player it will be another. It's a violent sport and players will miss games. You know how I feel about AR. I still think he needs improvements but the sky is the limit with him... I don't think there was anybody higher on him than me here. But first thing - he just needs to stay healthy. Downs had a very promising rookie season. Hope he makes a jump in year 2 too... Honestly. I'm not high on this TE group. The rumors about Woods are not great. Ogletree and Mallory IMO are JAGs at best. Which is OK for where they were drafted but they are not game changers. We need better... I guess if you believe in Brock Bowers we should be hoping he's there for us to take in the draft. Cross will need to make the jump because it looks like we might be losing Blackmon. He had some flashes at the end of the year, but he still needs to show consistency over a prolonged period of time. I think Raimann is already very good. I'm not too enthused with the way Ballard has handled the DT position... Steichen was already doing wonders with what he was given last year. IMO the hope is that AR stays healthy and is able to unlock the full potential of what Steichen envisions in his offense.