Btown_Colt
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Posts posted by Btown_Colt
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31 minutes ago, Tombstone said:
The Colts scored 0 point today, NONE, NOTHING ZERO. Could of had 6 points I mind you but, this is on Frank. BULL@#$%. The JAGS defense just punched the Colts today PERIOD end of story. So I guess the Saints lost to the Cowboys on prime time TV was Seaun Peytons fault too..... and he's not a first year head coach and has been with his QB and team a long time.... The Cowboys defense didn't have anything to do with that just like the Jags defense didn't have anything to do with this lost... Laughable
Umm, why didn’t the Colts score any points today? Because instead of kicking FG’s they went for it on 4th downs. 9 points is all that was needed to win the game. 3 FG’s was all that was needed, and they had the opportunity to kick 3 FG’s. And yes the Jags D was good, all the more reason to take the points when you can.
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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
Well I guess the whole thing is funny then
, You aren't going too tell me you wouldn't of been doing this 
had the gamble paid off but since it didn't work you can be critical and that is fine. The gamble didn't pay off so you win.
We got off on the wrong foot in the game day thread, I apologize for that. But it gets old when everything is either one extreme or the other. It’s not impossible for me, and others, to like Reich as a head coach and disagree with the decision at the same time.
And sure, I mean if my wife takes her check to the casino, hits big, and comes home to share it with me, of course I’m gonna celebrate with her. It wouldn’t make it any less wreckless and irresponsible.
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33 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
What is funny is, if we get the 4th and Goal play and score a TD everyone on here would say he is a cool slick gambling man and should be COTY.
What’s funny is, you act like the only option was to go for it and then act like everyone who disagreed with it is using hindsight.
What your saying is that he can’t be criticized for the call, because the potential reward was greater than kicking the FG. But with higher rewards come higher risks, and it came to fruition in this game. What we are saying is that it was not the time to make that call, and it was obvious from the flow of the game, to anyone that was paying attention.
I mean you can invest in retirement, or go to the casino and gamble all your money at once. One is safe and responsible, the other is risky and wreckless When your young, you should invest. When your older and don’t have time to wait on investments to pay off, that’s when you should go all-in.
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I dunno about all that. Today stings a little, no doubt.
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9 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:
Well I mean, again, and here's the key point.
You do A, it gives you an increased chance of winning, over time you will win more games. And yes you will have games where you will have won going against that. But then you're not playing the percentages and in effect gambling more. The other component here is the disparity in pay off (7 vs 3). That's when EV comes in, it's how you decide is something is a good value proposition.
Yes is there is more than just stats. Like not calling stupid plays in said situation. Sure too, you can factor in momentum and the fact our O seemed a pale pale shadow of itself. The issue I had is people saying the numbers are wrong. No they're not, the argument is about is the modelling accurate enough for specific plays. I mean let's have a conversation about how much situational effects skew the probabilities and that's cool. Don't let outcome bias cloud your thinking (and that's not aimed at you).
I never disputed the numbers...I am saying the numbers didn’t even matter in that instance. I never blamed aggressive play calling (per say). I like aggressive, I do not like wreckless decision making, or being overly aggressive (which is gambling). I said it as soon as they didn’t send the FG unit on the field, it was a poor decision. At that moment in the game it was obvious that this was going to be a hard fought game. You have to take the points. The game depended on it, the season depended on it.
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I agree. Don’t take points off the board, which the Colts did.
Throw analytics out the window. You have to consider game flow, and Reich did not. The Colts season just came to a screeching hault. They are no longer in control of their destiny.
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I agree. But beware, some are going to say you want Reich fired and Pagano back. Others are going to say that statistically, it was the right call.
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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:
It's almost like you're using hindsight... the the best form of decision making.
Obviously, using stats for all your calls isn’t the best form of decision making, either.
The Colts had opportunities to put points on the board and didn’t, due to poor decisions by the head coach. It’s really not that complicated. Each game is different.
What is the odds of winning when you score first? What is psychological effect of not getting points when your in scoring range? How much did those calls boost Jacksonville psychologically? There is more to this game than just numbers and statistics....is it that hard to admit that if they had kicked the FG’s , the colts COULD have won this game?
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Just now, John Hammonds said:
It's almost like, if we had kicked two field goals on 4th down earlier in the game, we would have kicked this one for the win.
True dat.
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It’s almost like, if they already had 3 points, they could have kicked a FG for the tie. Season is over.
Oh well, they did better than expected.
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Unbelievable
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Absolutely horrible showing today, and it starts with the head coach.
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1 minute ago, mahagga73 said:
He set the precedent. He's going to be aggressive. Cant pick and choose what to be mad about.
No, I can. I don’t mind aggressive play calling. I do mind foolish game management. If he couldn’t see that Jax D was playing stout, and that the Colts O is struggling mightily, then he needs a wake up call. The only reason the Colts were even in scoring position was because of help fromJax D, on 2 separate plays. It was foolish. End of discussion. And half way through the 3rd quarter, the offense still has sniffed FG position....
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Just now, SteelCityColt said:
I ain't on no pedestal, but you were arguing the math was wrong. It ain't. That's not my opinion, it's not even my work but it is right.
Lol what math? There was math out there for plays that were going to happen, before they happen. This isn’t baseball. The stats aren’t drilled down to every scenario for this game.
You blame the play call, but surely the coaching staff had statistics for which plays worked best in that scenario, no? Hmm
Im done for now, I’m trying to watch the game, but I’d be glad to discuss it more later. I’m rushing through my comments and honestly, being more of a smart butt than anything.
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5 minutes ago, mahagga73 said:
Yeah. Not really. Try again.
Not really? Ok.
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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:
Well oddly enough there wouldn't be one for that.. but hey the rest, it's out there.
If you don't agree why don't you offer up something constructive contrary? or we can play this game and see how it works out.
I already did. There isn’t a stat for everything. I admitted that I like aggressive play calling. But there is a time and a place. You have to consider all variables...and the fact that the offense is struggling, due to a pretty dang good defense, trumps the 43% chance, or whatever it was, of going for it.
And I sure don’t mind playing the game. Step down off your pedestal, you sure aren’t the all mighty analytical genius that your trying play.
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Just now, mahagga73 said:
I'm confused. Reich 4th down call was universally praised here. Now in this game he's being aggressive on 4th down and everybody is up in arms.
I understand how it can be confusing. It’s hard to fathom that different games, different circumstances, can require different decisions. Whew mind blown.
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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:
You forgot the sarcasm emoticon...
Statistically, you only have to use the emoticon when your a dealing with kids 13 years of age and younger....
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Just now, SteelCityColt said:
If we'd punched it in from 2, I guarantee we wouldn't see half these posts. Outcome bias for ya.
Lol yea, because none of us could have been thinking it as soon as they didn’t send the FG team in the field.
Quick find us us a statistic, how many of us would still be complaining?
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4 minutes ago, Trueman said:
Nah , you did. I specifically told you " you can still play defense in this league."
You were beating the drum of the "new NFL" , like so many are doing this year.
When the Jags feel like it , they are an elite defense- they still exist. They've completely shut down everything we've tried to do , and dominated at the LOS. The Colts didn't all of a sudden forget how to execute , they're just getting their butts kicked by superior talent. No one can get open and our line can't get any push.
A coach should adjust to each game and each circumstance. He shouldn't say , "oh, it's the new NFL , better go for it!"
That's ridiculous. Take the points.You mean game flow should still be consider when trying to decide if and when to go for it? That’s ridiculous!!
Darn, now I’m dumb and want Pagano back
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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:
Statistically it should be a 7-3 game.
Realistically, it should be 3-3.
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1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:
Deep breaths.
As sloppy as that 1st half was, we're only down 3.
We got this.
It should be a tie ball game
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No points in the first half. 4 quarters without scoring on this defense. But nah, it was a good call to give up the points.
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Just now, CamMo said:
Maybe be we should stop trying to let him run it
Yea , they are trying to fit him in to too many buckets
, You aren't going too tell me you wouldn't of been doing this 
had the gamble paid off but since it didn't work you can be critical and that is fine. The gamble didn't pay off so you win.
4th Down Agression/loss on Reich (merge)
in Colts Football
Posted
Play calling is one thing. I’m talking about game management/ decision making.
I am all for being aggressive, but not overly. There is a fine line. But the impact of his decision making today very well could cost the Colts the playoffs where as kicking the field goals, while not as flashy, could have kept their play off chances alive.
I agree that he probably didn’t think the Colts O would be shut out, but that is kind of the issue isn’t it? In my opinion, he didn’t think the decisions through. Instead, he used a boiler plate philosophy to justify his decision when a more in depth risk/reward analysis was required.
Anyway, it’s been a great season, and I like Reich. The future is bright, I just hope this doesn’t become a reoccurring issue with him.