ColtStrong2013

I can’t imagine that’s uncommon.

See my edited addition to that post…

report said he reported symptoms in Atlanta after traveling.

And yet he isn’t playing is he? and yet the line moved another half point when it was announced he wasn’t playing. the speculation across the league is that the big bettors that influence the spreads have inside information on situations that would impact the game, hence the spread shifting to where they are betting. everyone on this forum was scratching their head why it would shift that much… until now even without inside information, they can hammer a bet with the understanding that even Pittman plays, he’s liable to be on a major pitch count and not effective. There is no doubt that his absence would influence bettors against the colts.

That is absolutely why pro bettors were hammering it…

That was the shift in the line, no doubt. It just moved another half point. we’ll see what Steichen and Minshew are made of. Good defense in Atlanta. Hopefully get the run game going early and utilize tight ends more. Need Pierce and Downs to play big.

that’s what I have heard.

This. If he plays well and win the division or make the playoffs as a wild card, he is going to be rewarded for that, and it will be by the colts unless he gets an offer that they just can’t justify. If he plays like Carson Wentz and the team collapses, they could really change up things in the offseason. Regardless, they are going to put full weight behind #5 going into the offseason, and everything else is going to be based around him. Ballard hasn’t had that opportunity but once or twice with Andrew Luck early on. It has been figure the qb situation out first and then let the dominos fall, which is hard to make a good offseason plan for. FA and the draft should complement one another, and that’s hard to plan for when you are piecing the most important positions together every year. I’m excited for Richardson. I really enjoyed watching what little we got to see of him. I think his potential is sky high and that we are fortunate to have a 21 year old that is mature beyond his years, and just an overall good dude. His injury could be a bad sign, but it also could be a positive for him to study and understand what Steichen’s vision is for him. I’ve watched enough film of this offense to picture 5 and 28 in the backfield together and how it would alter defenses, when they are already getting beat up and torched at times this season with backups out there.

Nick cross blocked one of them. Brown is a bigger loss on special teams than McKenzie, imo. But there is a lot of athletes on this team, so we should be fine. special teams has been boom or bust this year, it seems. Happy to see us making big time plays under a new coordinator, but we’ve had a lot of miscues and big plays/penalties given up as well.

As someone earlier said- it all depends on what Minshew wants. Maybe he doesn’t want to leave. Who knows. He’s the first domino in the offseason, imo. If the backup qb market is hot, he is likely gone and it’s hard to say what route they’ll go. Could alter a great deal of what they look to accomplish in free agency/draft.

Precedent says they will put a price pre-free agency and tell him to take his time (while they work through plan b, c, and d) and then Ballard will tell him he needs to take a good opportunity when it comes, which it undoubtedly will. im just not confident he’s back next year. It would take them putting a multi-year investment into him when they know he’s going to be their backup. Maybe they value it higher than we can imagine. But i see Ballard being more of a gambler with Richardson and using every inch of resource he can to build around him. It’s what Irsay is going to want, and I think it’s what Ballard’s going to do. We’ve not seen Chris Ballard go hard in an offseason yet. I think 2024 offseason is going to be full of moves. Some players we expect back to walk, some free agents that we wouldn’t expect to be worked hard. Trades, etc. I think they will go all but all-in on building up the roster to the vision around what he and Steichen want surrounding AR, and minshew isn’t going to be in that picture. And then again, I might totally wrong.

Ballard’s description of premium, and what they would provide is much like we’d expect it to be as he revealed them to be “A guy that we think makes an impact and a difference for our team on game day. Makes game-winning plays for us. Guys that on Monday and Tuesday, the other team is game planning.” straight from the big guy’s mouth. I wouldn’t forget his definition of premium picks after he summed up how there is 8 or so premium players in every draft. He views it as such, and everyone between roughly 10-12 (factoring qb picks and reaches that are not premium players) and upwards of 90 as 2nd tier picks… and his idea is well known, the more darts for the dart board, the better odds of hitting a bullseye. I buy it. Qb’s (and other players) that fall out of the 1st round, should be viewed as good odds to acquire a premium position asset that can be valuable down the road whether for you or as a trade. I’m not sure why more teams aren’t more aggressive to improve their qb rooms, quite frankly. Of course. Different eyes and philosophies/schemes are going to see different things. The colts have been known to have a pretty small board under Ballard because they throw so many in the trash. They value senior bowl participants, high measurables, captain grade and smart collegiate athletes. Trading down depends on the players left on your board. If there are plenty in the same grouping, you can bet he’s trading down. Hell, we might not have the pick at all if he goes the deforest Buckner route and trades it away during the Super Bowl. likewise. 🤠

Opportunities. We didn’t fare well on our last road trip. They saw a 2 point spread and decided to hammer their bets on the falcons either winning or losing by a point. Opening line was 1, which means that some of those sharp bettors likely took the colts early on which pushed it to 2 before more of them went the other way. Understand that the ones that figured this stuff out can be viewed by one sports book as a “pro or sharp” bettor, while another might view the same person as a giant cash flowing loser. I know someone that bets large amounts of money, on one site they generally lose big, and get comped for all sorts of events, rooms, etc. The other sites, they win big. They utilize the various ones to make repeated bets as part of a hedging strategy that increases their odds of winning, and winning big.

Mariota could fit. Although I wasn’t a fan of how he handled the Falcons situation/Netflix show.

… Now you have me circling back. I agree- if there is one that is available and the cost difference made sense. I don’t see Ballard and Shane going for someone else, especially if he leads us to the playoffs. That would be Ballard altering his philosophy of rewarding players that perform for the franchise.

https://bloggingdirty.com/posts/pro-bettors-causing-jaw-dropping-shift-in-colts-vs-falcons-odds-01hj78qxw2t6 Good write-up on the shift. “Pro/ sharp money” causing it.

I don’t disagree. And I don’t think they go Ehlinger/rookie. I do hope they can sign Minshew to at least 2 years, on a reasonable deal, and then go to the draft in ‘25 to replace Ehlinger, with a longterm outlook to replace Minshew. That’s the most sensible. But it all comes down to money, and how much value they place on #2 and the big picture. and at the end of the day, what I want most is to never see #2 out there for a single snap (aside from handing the ball off in a blowout win) in 2024. …qb2, not Carson Wentz.

If Sam isn’t it… then I pray that Ballard is looking closely at the qb’s coming out of college the next two drafts in the event #5 is in fact injury prone. Gardner Minshew is not the future of this team. And if AR turns out not to be either, wouldn’t you be trying to find somebody with athleticism and a high ceiling that can fill that role?

A vet qb like Nick Foles? lol. I think it’s been proven that a young qb can perform in this league at a high level. Some vet qb’s cannot. It’s not an exact science. My point is exactly that. If we cannot afford to keep Minshew, are we guaranteed to find a vet that will save much more than figuring a way to keep him? And are they more capable than Sam that is under contract, already in the system and has shown some capability to play football to this team? It’s easy to say for colts fans that we’ve already seen him, but the only ones that have seen any of his work ethic and true capability under Shane’s leadership are those that will make that determination. I honestly can’t imagine it being more limited with Sam. He can move a heck of a lot better than Minshew. He’s obviously not better, but that’s the whole conversation. There isn’t a single available vet that’s better for the savings. If AR were to go down in week 3 next season, this forum and every colts fan will say he’s a bust and we’re in trouble… except for if we invested in a day 2 pick that steps in and balls out… and maybe not even a day 2 pick. The front runner for mvp was Mr irrelevant.

I didn’t ignore your response on Sam. I understand it, and don’t necessarily disagree. I just don’t think we can use two games from a joke of a season with a coach on his way out as the reasoning. If Shane Steichen thinks he’s a suitable backup and deserving of it, I won’t be disappointed like you will be. why would any team invest in the draft on a qb? #1- good qbs fall to day 2 of the draft. If the right guy was there, specifically one that fit your scheme and complements your young starting qb, it would be worth pulling the trigger on and spending the savings on a veteran elsewhere versus overpaying for a veteran that doesn’t fit your scheme. #2, you would think hard as a gm about investing in the qb room after your #4 pick missed a promising rookie season and now has injury concerns… That’s just my $0.02. Not taking it seriously could cost Ballard his job and put this franchise back another 3-5 years or more. We will lose Moss to FA. And running back is now the last of my concerns with what we have and what we lost to injury this season. I’m pretty confident Steichen’s not concerned about the runningback room right now. day 2 are not premium picks. We won’t have a single “premium pick” this season, as we are projected around 22 range. It’s more likely that we trade back out of the first round and add more 2nd round opportunities, like has been in the past. We have had plenty (as everyone has) of day two picks that never touched the field consistently or performed. I’m not sure what point you are trying to make with that argument. joe Biden wasn’t a cheap shot. Everytime you get in an argument with someone on this forum, you put the confused response on seemingly every post they make. It was just a joke.

I kind of feel this way about Moss as well. It’s a balancing act at this point.

did you get beer thrown on you like my friends did?

I can’t trash anyone that is as cool as Minshew and helps the Colts win games. Happy he’s a Colt. Hope he balls out these last few weeks and puts a show on for the world to watch in the playoffs.

Yes. He was brought here to help develop Richardson in an offense he was familiar with. I don’t think we are tied to him at all, unless his value is a lot less than we all expect it to be. Ballard and Steichen might want him here for a while if the price is right, who knows. I just don’t think the price is going to be right. Yeah. He does a fine job running certain rpo concepts, but without the qb threat which isn’t how they are designed generally. So we are essentially tweaking his role because of his limitations with his legs. Steichen’s playbook is dramatically reduced with Minshew. I think I would prefer to see the front office spend a higher draft pick on a compatible fit backup, or at least compete with Sam for backup, and spend the money saved elsewhere. It makes sense to me as a series of moves that would complement Richardson, both in the qb room and an upgrade elsewhere on the roster. Versus just throwing money at a guy whose value increased due to a wild year at the qb position, that has limitations in your offense. I’m betting more on Steichen and Richardson than on Minshew. Simply put.