CoachLite
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Posts posted by CoachLite
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1 hour ago, stitches said:
Yeah... I don't buy it... BUT... if there is someone you might have to take seriously about something like that... it's Jeremiah. Remember how he absolutely killed that last mock with predicting the exact trade and exact picks for the Texans? Lets see if he has similarly good sources on the Colts...
I have no idea how it will all shake out, but I have my popcorn ready.
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There are no owners in the NFL that are perfect people. Some owner's demons are more public, some not so much, but they all have them. There's much more to the free agency issue and the Colts than most are aware of. There are a lot of intangibles most will never consider. That said, there is more to almost every aspect of any organization that most will ever be aware of. Those are often the things that matter most.
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2 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:
The need to get it “right” falls on the scouting department and the coaching staff at the end of the day. Trading up just doesn’t make sense. I could understand if it were a WIN NOW mode, but this roster is atleast a year or two from being able to compete for a Lombardi. You don’t mortgage draft capital under those circumstances.
You can't measure what is "right" in a vacuum, or just by "feel". It takes so much more than that. The Colts front office performance is judged in relationship with all the other teams in the NFL. Just trying to objectively align the different perspectives of the scouting and coaching staff requires more sophisticated evaluation methods than what we saw in the video.
It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling, but I understand this is the way a lot of organizations work.
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2 hours ago, cjwhiskers said:
The large majority of defenses in the NFL can be considered “mediocre”. The Colts defense did plenty to keep the games winnable and that’s all you can ask of a defense in today’s NFL.
Let me ask you, was it the Browns top defense that won the Super Bowl? Was it the Ravens? Was it the 49ers?
You don’t need an elite defense. You need an elite offense that scores consistently and in clutch moments.
Colts resigning all of their own defensive players back is really all you need to know about how this organization views their own defense.
Defenses are judged relative to their offenses and achievement of their defensive strategy. Notice, nothing was said about winning and losing, directly. I've seen defenses win and lose football games, just as I have seem good defenses play on the losing side. The Colts signing their own players doesn't tell me much. The Colts bringing Bradley back tells me more, and I'm not encouraged by what that is telling me.
I think the game of football is far more complex and complicated than most people believe. The tendency for many is to think in terms of plug-and-play solutions based on subjective personal opinion. That's not a winning ploy in my book. I guess we'll see what happens as it plays out on the field?
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3 minutes ago, cjwhiskers said:
Deficiencies on D? Give me a break. This defense is more than good enough in an offensive league to win games. Defense was not the Colts problem last year.
The issue seems to be that you think the NFL still cares about defense and low scoring games. Offense need playmakers and the defense just needs to hang on.
Getting a stud offensive play maker would easily move this teams needle far more than adding a stud defensive player.
The most important position on this team is quarterback, agree? What do you do to help the most important position out? Surround him with talent at play making positions.
Anyone who doesn’t look at the transformation of Jalen Hurts getting AJ Brown or Josh Allen getting Diggs or Burrow having Chase as a good comparison for AR needs to remember what’s important in todays NFL, scoring points.
It's amazing how two people can watch the same thing and come to very different conclusions. Last year, the Colts defense was mediocre at best.
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2 hours ago, Superman said:
Yeah, I don't like this at all. I don't care about him taking the heat at the podium, I care about him getting coached and then responding. I understand not wanting to shatter the confidence of your starting QB, especially when his ego seems fragile to begin with. But it's okay -- necessary, even -- for your QB to know that if he's reckless and unpredictable, he won't stay on the field.
The game is bigger than any one player - and that includes the quarterback.
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With pick #15, we'll know what we did 2 weeks from today.
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16 hours ago, jvan1973 said:
Analytics are used by every team, in every sport. It's used in almost all large corporations. It doesn't mean every call is determined by it. I'm not sure how AI plays into Analytics. 2 completely different things.
Also, if you work with AI everyday, why would you call it so- called "artificial intelligence "
I say "so-called artificial intelligence" because there is only intelligence or not. Generative and transformers AI used in LLMs are not intelligent, they only act like an intelligent agent, sometimes. It's the difference between a surgeon and an actor who plays a surgeon on TV.
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15 hours ago, King Colt said:
True but I watched the Colts Lions game with Luck and the next day the Colts Rams game with AR and that guy is going to do many good deeds for them and their fans.
I hope Anthony Richardson learns the lessons that Robert Griffin III never learned. Even very talented quarterbacks can be eaten up by big, powerful men focused on destroying him.
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25 minutes ago, CoachLite said:
My point is not to blame the Scouting Department, directly. IMO, blame is a worthless effort. My point is that we, as fans, are not privy to how the decisions are being made - and that's OK. My concern is that many decisions are team (group) decisions where one group (the owner, this or that coach, some specialty department, the GM) holds more 'political' sway over the others, and that group isn't performing up to potential, and within the Colts there is no way to evaluate which section is the problem. This only leads to finger-pointing, and "fire the SOB". Furthermore, I'm concerned that many decisions are made 'by-the-seat-of-their-pants' (ad hoc). That's a killer because there is no objective way of evaluating performance, let alone objectively evaluating the evaluation process itself (the term I've used in the past is a rubric). For those who've had some experience in these matters, they will see why I'm suspect of the way analytics are used within the Colts, and in football in general. Seems to me they were sick the days they taught that in school, or they failed the test on that subject.
To the point @NewColtsFan made, there is no chart that can tell you whether to go for it on fourth down. All that chart tells you are the probabilities averaged over many games where the conditions that permitted an outcome (the context) are 'forgotten'. Only an * (pardon the judgmental term) would solely rely on a chart for making decisions. The outcome of any probable event is only realized in the current context. A good coach pays far more attention to the contexts at that point in the game than what some piece of paper he's holding in front of him says.
That's what concerns me about so-called 'artificial intelligence' too, and I work in AI everyday. It's not AI, it's people who use (or abuse) it.
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14 hours ago, Yoshinator said:
He's had major hits every year though. It's just more obvious since he took Stroud and Anderson at two and three. Again, it bothers me that people are saying it's "just luck" that the Panthers didn't take Stroud. That generally happens every year that good or great players fall past other players that aren't as good as that position.
They were the 2nd worst team because of the QB position. However, they fixed that quickly in half the time it took Ballard to fix it for us (and we don't know for sure if Richardson is the guy yet where it's almost guaranteed at this point Stroud is the guy).
Caserio is just as good as Ballard in the draft to boot and he's aggressive in FA as well to build around Stroud. This is what a lot of the Texans talk is about from people (including me).
How can you measure the effects of "great timing" and "good luck"? Frankly, the game of football, the game of business and the game of life is far more complex and complicated than most people know or will ever believe. For example, you cannot optimize any system where humans are part of that system (and Colts are a system component in the system of NFL football) by optimizing each part of the team. One weak part of that system is called the constraint. If you fix that component, the constraint 'moves'. Some people use big honkin' computers to model this 'theory of constraints' to make boat-loads of money (or win football trophies).
The rest are simply lambs being led to slaughter.
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20 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
BBZ…. I’m not sure we’re talking about the same thing.
I could be wrong, but I think @CoachLite is talking about some key administrative type who might be working on something like the chart for when to go or not go for a first down when it’s 4th down. I believe he thinks there is someone who is bad at their job within the Colts front office. I disagree. And that’s where we are. I don’t think he’s talking about how the Colts set up their Big Board.
If he’d like to clarify, he’s got the opportunity to right here.
My point is not to blame the Scouting Department, directly. IMO, blame is a worthless effort. My point is that we, as fans, are not privy to how the decisions are being made - and that's OK. My concern is that many decisions are team (group) decisions where one group (the owner, this or that coach, some specialty department, the GM) holds more 'political' sway over the others, and that group isn't performing up to potential, and within the Colts there is no way to evaluate which section is the problem. This only leads to finger-pointing, and "fire the SOB". Furthermore, I'm concerned that many decisions are made 'by-the-seat-of-their-pants' (ad hoc). That's a killer because there is no objective way of evaluating performance, let alone objectively evaluating the evaluation process itself (the term I've used in the past is a rubric). For those who've had some experience in these matters, they will see why I'm suspect of the way analytics are used within the Colts, and in football in general. Seems to me they were sick the days they taught that in school, or they failed the test on that subject.
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On 3/26/2024 at 7:02 PM, John Hammonds said:
On the negative side, we're going to be playing a tougher schedule than last year.
On the positive side, our young players should be better in their second year (Richardson, Downs, Brents) along with our 2022 draftees getting better (Pierce, Woods, Raimann, Cross).
It can all be upset by untimely injuries, but I'm giving us 10 wins and a playoff berth.
If you want me to guess a the number of wins, I'd say 7 - 8, slightly below .500 (based on before the draft given our draft position).
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4 minutes ago, CoachLite said:
Nope. Some employees are like cockroaches. They are survivors, not performers. People tend to stay with the devil they know. That goes for departments more than just the Scouting Department.
The one obvious department I had great hopes for, and was totally disappointed, was the Analytics Team. Analytics should not be confused with magic or fortune telling, but if you don't know the difference, they look the same.
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32 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
If the scouting department had some bad people — and that’s a very BIG IF by the way — wouldn’t you think those people are long, LONG gone? They shouldn’t be hard to identify. Any decent GM should be able to spot the weakest link in a department full of people.Nope. Some employees are like cockroaches. They are survivors, not performers. People tend to stay with the devil they know. That goes for departments more than just the Scouting Department.
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8 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
We have pretty much stayed the same. The only thing I am thinking is, Ballard probably seems to think that AR will be great and mask some of the problems we had last year. Minshew IMO, played well though (Overall above average) so we will see.
"You pays yer money, and you takes yer chances." The decisions made by the Colts are based on identifiable factors, not just random (at least I hope so). Those decisions are made on probabilities. I'm convinced that most people really don't understand probabilities very well (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6ZLxEWaankRZ2Crv/probability-is-in-the-mind). To treat a probability as something real is a well-known logical error (reification).
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Like any company, it's hard to evaluate the contributions of one person, or even one department, due to the internal power structures. We don't really know how the scouting department performs in the context of the Colt's winning and losing record. I suspect, however, that there are certain people in the organization like Wally from Dilbert - people that at best don't do anything and at worst hinder the performance of competent people. All you can say is that certain people, like Grigson and Reich IMO, Luck's untimely retirement, and Jim Irsay's understandable histrionics, damaged the Colts in ways that can't be ignored. A large number of people, perhaps like our scouting department, didn't inform the others in the front office (at least loud enough) to see the effects it was having on the Colts place in the greater football community. It's not just losing a locker room, it is losing faith in the whole organization.
I've seen this kind of problem ruin companies.
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21 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:
Interesting.
We lack pass rush.
Our LB's are weak in coverage, with No depth.
The secondary looks to be bottom 5.
Nobody believes in Pierce as a quality 2.
Our QB is still a ?
We look like a bottom 10 now.
There was high Quality play from both sides of the ball from the final 8 teams in the playoffs.
With Irsay/Ballard, .500 seems to be the business model.
Sounds like you think the Colts are what the Washington Generals are to Harlem Globetrotters in basketball - a bunch of JAGs.
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6 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:
Yes but not until AR5's shoulder fully heals.
😂
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Maybe we could merge this with the thread "Peyton Manning Throws a Football Off A Skyscraper" and title it "AR to Throw Manning Off a Skyscraper". That would really make the news!
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13 minutes ago, Hark said:
Man I miss that laughing reaction 🤣
Not much to laugh at, is there?
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14 hours ago, jvan1973 said:
I think you misunderstood the format
Probably.
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I find it interesting that most mock drafts represent a balanced view of drafting, rather than focusing on a particular area and stocking them. You better your odds at finding a fit at that position, and can better leverage trades or draft picks.
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OK, I'll bite.
R1:
C. Brock Bowers TE
R2:
B. Xavier Legette WR
R3:A. Khyree Jackson CB
R4A. Cam Hart CB
R5
A. Cole Bishop S
R6
B. Tip Reiman TE
R7
A. Beaux Limmer C
Bonus: Stay put at 15
Ballard pre-draft presser
in Colts Football
Posted
If we are being chased by a bear, I don't have to run faster than the bear, I just have to run faster than you. That's the nature of the Colt's front office performance compared with all other NFL front offices. You can't optimize any system by optimizing the performance of any one component. You have to optimize the system as a whole given the constraints posed by any particular components (so-called Theory of Constraints).