ponyboy
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After Week 9
Teams 0-9
#1 SF 0.5573 NYGTeams 0-8
#2 CLE 0.5000 DET
Teams 1-7
#3 NYG 0.5338 SF
Teams 2-6
#4 TB 0.5540 NYJ
Teams 3-6
#5 IND 0.4769 PITT
Teams 3-5
#6 CIN 0.4604 TENN
#7 HOU 0.4962 LAR
#8 LAC 0.5075 JAX
#9 CHI 0.5076 GB
#10 DEN 0.5111 NE
Teams 4-5
#11 BAL 0.4538 BYE
#12 OAK 0.5263 BYE
#13 NYJ 0.5267 TB -
I'm rooting for the Browns, SF, NYG, TB, ARI, CIN, LAC, and CHI. The excitement for the rest of the season is all about the Colts improving their draft position.
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"You can have the boat or the mystery box" (TY is the boat in this metaphor)
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After week 8
These results are before the Sunday and Monday night games. The outcome of those games won't change anything in the top 9 other than some minor SoS values. DET and DEN could join the ranks of the 3-4 teams depending on the outcome of the late games.
Next two opponents are shown for each team. SF has both ARI and NYG coming up. Two winnable games for SF IMO.
Note the big SoS advantage Colts have in the top 9 teams -- .4673 vs. next closest at .5000.
Teams 0-8
CLE 0.5000 BYE, DET
SF 0.5345 ARI, NYG
Teams 1-6
NYG 0.5217 LAR, SF
Teams 2-6
IND 0.4673 HOU, PITT
Teams 2-5
TB 0.5645 NO, NYJ
Teams 3-5
LAC 0.5086 BYE, JAX
CHI 0.5214 BYE, GB
OAK 0.5431 MIA, BYE
NYJ 0.5470 BUF, TB
Teams 3-4
ARI 0.4609 SF, SEA
CIN 0.4677 JAX, TENN
HOU 0.4746 IND, LAR
WASH 0.5299 SEA, MINN
Teams 4-4
BAL 0.4444 TENN, BYE -
3 minutes ago, BProland85 said:
I'd totally be in support of trading away Hilton for practically a late 1st round pick. Cleveland will have the 1st or 2nd pick in the 2nd round so I'd love adding more picks for Ballard to work his magic and bring in help on the OL, LB, and WR core.
I trust Ballard to make the right picks in the draft, unlike a certain previous GM of the Colts.
Cleveland also has Texans 1st and 2nd. The twitter I saw said Colts are *asking* for Cleveland 2nd from Texans.. so a mid 2nd at best. I hope we keep TY.
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I've been feeling pretty good about Brissett as our backup QB for the next few years. Today's performance just reinforced that feeling. Not sure I understand the "terrible" talk.
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3 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:
"The Colts reportedly intend to insert Luck into the lineup if he's healthy enough to play this season, but it's difficult to understand why they're rushing to put their quarterback in the line of fire. "
If he is healthy enough, how is that 'rushing' him? It's not.
For me it all comes down to this question, even if declared healthy enough to play.
For any significant impact that could be expected in game play (e.g. landing on this elbow after a hit and jarring the shoulder socket), is the risk of re-injuring the shoulder greater in Dec-2017 vs. Aug-2018?
Could he be declared "healthy enough" to play but still be at greater risk of re-injuring his shoulder at 10 months after surgery vs. allowing it to continue healing/strengthening for an additional 9 months.
The fact that he's barely throwing anything over a warm-up tosses 9 months after surgery make me wonder how he could be completely healed/strengthened by next month (vs. the shape it could be in at Aug-2018).
I would think the risk of aggravating or re-injuring the shoulder would be reduced the longer it's shielded from significant impacts. If this is true, I would completely understand sitting him if it was just a few games at the end of a lost season to ensure his shoulder is as strong as it can be in 2018.
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20 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:
Why would you want a guard in the first take an elite LT if you want OL in the 1st
Problem is there don't appear to be any elite LTs in this draft. In fact, the only elite OL in the draft might be Nelson, and mid-1st would be a pretty good value for an elite interior OL. The top OT in this draft in a level below elite, mid-1st type of guys.
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5 hours ago, richard pallo said:
Polian got me thinking. He thinks the Eagles should definitely trade for a LT. He mentioned Brown from the Texans but he is quite a bit older than Costanzo and has been a long holdout. Costanzo has many years left and is under contract. I said it was risky but a team thinking they can win it all this year might make us an offer we can't refuse. All things considered it's more likely another player gets moved like Davis, Gore or Moncrief.
We need Castonzo this year and next. No way we trade him. We might draft his eventual replacement within the next couple years, but he is desperately needed for at least 2018 and probably 2019 too.
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I'm not sure I believe this was a calculated move, but you could include the fact that Irsay wouldn't have to pay for 2 head coaches this year too. Maybe not a primary factor, but it's little gravy. Probably still kicking himself over those 4 year extensions only to want out of them after 1 year.
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12 hours ago, King Colt said:
In Michael Errard’s excellent book Um: verbal blunders and what they mean, he explains...
57 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:You copied and pasted an article without giving credit to the author
He did give credit to the author. First sentence.
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45 minutes ago, Robin said:
.. but your "i concur" dosen't do any other thing then making every thread unnecessary long and slow..I do not concur
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9 hours ago, Blue Shoe Savior 12 said:
The Browns would get the #1 overall pick over us if we both end up 2-14 since we already beat them.
8 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:I really don't see is getting the #1 overall pick. As bad as the Colts have been the Browns have been worse. Plus as Blue Shoe Savior pointed out, we beat the Browns earlier.
Still a top 5 pick or especially a top 3 pick isn't bad. We can either draft an elite pass rusher or we can trade down for more premium picks.
Nope. Head to head is not part of the tie breaking process for the draft. It really just comes down to strength of schedule (other tie breakers in event of tie in SoS, but not head-to-head). Colts would likely beat all CLE, SF, and NYG in any combination of ties with these 3 teams sue to SoS.
Not necessarily predicting that would happen, but just pointing out it's not too far-fetched to think the Colts could lose out, CLE could win 2, SF wins 2, and NYG win one more.
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Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson would be my guess.
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6 minutes ago, Superman said:
By the way, McDaniels has become my first option over the course of the last two years. And I used to be firmly opposed to McDaniels.
I'm curious if it's because you feel he is a great candidate, or if he's the best of a bunch of mediocre candidates? -
#1 pick is not out of the question.
- Colts lose out. (Luck is not even close and it would make sense to sit him if he's not healthy before week 12)
- SF beats NYG, plus an additional game (SF has lost several close games)
- NYG eek out a win in their remaining schedule. (this should happen)
- CLE (which played TENN tough today, PITT tough in week1) improve and manage 2 wins down the stretch.
Colts have #1 (SoS is likely to work out in favor of Colts this year if the 4 are tied at 2-14). This is not that far fetched given how bad the Colts have looked recently.
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After week 7
This is before the Sunday and Monday night games. Those game will only impact SoS, nothing in the top 6 will change because of the late games.
Colts sitting at #4. I've listed the week 8-10 opponents for the bottom teams. If Colts lose next week and Luck doesn't return this year, we could be looking at somewhere between #2-#4 pick by years end. SF and NYG could leap frog Colts (Colts have SoS advantage, NYG vs. SF in week 10). SF has had some close loses and I don't expect NYG to stay awful all year. Browns actually played TENN tough today.. #1 not out of the question if the Colts and CLE continue to play like they both did this week.
Teams 0-7
CLE 0.5000 MIN, BYE, DET
SF 0.5333 PHI, ARI, NYGTeams 1-6
NYG 0.5300 BYE, LAR, SF
Teams 2-5
IND 0.4598 CIN, HOU, PIT
Teams 2-4
CIN 0.4649 IND, JAX, TEN
TB 0.5556 CAR, NO, NYJ
Teams 3-4
BAL 0.4579 MIA, TEN, BYE
ARI 0.4660 BYE, SF, SEA
CHI 0.5000 NO, BYE, GB
LAC 0.5146 NE, BYE, JAX
OAK 0.5437 BUF, MIA, BYE
NYJ 0.5446 ATL, BUF, TB -
1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:
IMO Ballard it not going to sign a bunch of free agents. He is building through the draft so even bringing up a lot of these high priced free agents is something the Colts are not interested in.
Maybe not a bunch of free agents, but I think a high value FA OL should be a top priority. They should also consider drafting at least one OL high in the draft (or two), but they can't wait to build the OL only through the draft. Especially due to the uncertainty with Mewhort.
Castonzo's eventual replacement will likely come from the draft in the next year or two (even if he starts elsewhere on the line before replacing Anthony). I don't think Clark is that person.
#Protect12
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49 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
The reason I'm not worried about the demand side as much is that.... stuff happens.
Older QB's retire. QB's get hurt. Some younger QB's don't pan out and teams give up on them.
I decided to do a quick analysis on the current state of starting QBs in the NFL and think you're right about the demand for staring QBs. I think there will be plenty of demand in both 2018 and 2019.
Teams with an immediate need in 2018: CLE, SF, JAX, ARI, NYJ, BUF [6]
Teams looking for a future vet replacement in 2018/2019: PITT, LAC, NYG, NO [4]
Teams who could be looking for upgrade in next couple years: CIN, MIN, MIA, DEN, BAL [5]
Bortles, Alex Smith, Flacco, Tannyhill, Bradford, Dalton will still be starters and filling positions for some of these teams, most likely staying with their current teams. Cousins may move to one of the teams with an immediate need, but if he does that opens up WAS an immediate need. Even if there were 3-4 long term starters found each of the next two drafts (which would be optimistic), there will be demand beyond what's available.
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8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
And you address that need by supply. The 2018 class is the biggest and best class of QB's in a long, long time. The supply will be strong. That brings Brissett's value down. The 2019 class will not be as strong. That brings Brissett's value up.
You're stressing the supply side of this in 2018. The other poster is pointing out that the demand *could* be lower in 2019 if many teams have invested heavily in the 2017/2018 QB drafts (top picks). Hard to say when Brissett's value would be higher.. if both demand and supply are higher (2018) or if both demand/supply are lower (in 2019 relative to 2018).
Any team that invests a #1 draft pick (plus more in trade) in 2017/2018 will likely not be in the market for a potential new starter in 2019. That would include CHI, HOU, KC from 2017, and potentially 4 or 5 additional in 2018.
Both are fair points.
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12 hours ago, WERC82 said:
10 games left and they are a game and a half back. In my best Herm Edwards voice, "You play to win the game."
Agreed. I'm on record as saying, with a healthy Luck and OL, the Colts only need to be able to win the AFC South to be a contender. They don't have to be favorites or even one of the best teams. If Luck get hot the Colts can beat any team. String three of these together and you're in the SB.
But...
12 hours ago, WERC82 said:Luck's shoulder is repaired. It is structurally sound...
Unless you're involved with his rehab, there's really no way to know this. The fact that he's still barely throwing would indicate he's still several weeks away -- especially since they had to shut him down after his first attempts at throwing more than warm-up tosses. It's this fact that has me wondering if it really *is* repaired and structurally sound. If he's "ready" week 13 and the colts are 3-8 (out of the AFC South), it might make more sense to allow it the rest of the year to avoid risking a setback with the shoulder for an already lost season.
12 hours ago, WERC82 said:He is no more likely to get injured than any other player.
I would think he'd be higher risk of re-injuring his shoulder than a QB that didn't just finish rehabbing. I'm willing to bet that, even if cleared to play, he'd be at greater risk of re-injuring the shoulder if he fell on his right elbow after a hit in December 2017 vs. August 2018. I'd also say the chance of re-injury just throwing all-out, in a non-contact situation, would be higher in December 2017 vs. August 2018. I could be completely wrong but it seems the more time given to heal would only reduce the chances of re-injuring that shoulder. I think he would want to avoid a potential second surgery at all costs.
13 hours ago, WERC82 said:We've started 2 QB's and they haven't been injured.
Yes, but they didn't just have major shoulder surgery. The injury I'd be worried about is re-injuring the shoulder. Of course the other injuries could happen at any time and are completely unpredictable. But the more hits taken and the more non-contact shoulder stress from game situations has a risk of re-injuring a recently healed (still healing) shoulder.
I could buy an argument like this for sitting him out the rest of the year if he's not back soon, which doesn't seem likely.
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After week 6
Teams 0-6
CLE 0.5000
SF 0.5217Teams 1-5
NYG 0.5281Teams 2-4
IND 0.4598
CHI 0.5217
LAC 0.5222
OAK 0.5506Teams 2-3
CIN 0.4646
DAL 0.5165
TB 0.5579Week 7 matchups
BYE: DET, HOU
KC vs OAK (Go OAK)
JAC vs IND (Go Colts)
TB vs BUF (either)
NYJ vs MIA (either)
ARI vs LAR (Go ARI)
CAR vs CHI (Go Bears)
NO vs GB (Go Saints)
TEN vs CLE (Go CLE)
DAL vs SF (Go SF)
DEN vs LAC (Go Chargers)
CIN vs PIT (Go CIN)
SEA vs NYG (Go Giants)
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For example, if three teams have the same record at the end of the season, where team A has the lowest strength of schedule, B has the second lowest, and C has the third lowest.. the draft orders for ABC would be
1st round A, B, C
2nd round B, C, A
3rd round C, A, B
And continue the rotation in subsequent rounds. My guess is that's what you're seeing on Walter Football. I'm not sure why they have Colts at #6 though, they must be computing strength of schedule using only the played games and not including the records of future opponents this year. I've been computing the strength of schedule using future/completed opponents and have the Colts at #8 instead of #6.
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Because there are so many teams with the same 2-3 record at the moment. Colts have a favorable strength of schedule for the 1st round which mean the rotate to the end of the 2-3 teams for the 2nd round.
Ballards Potentially toughest off season decision
in Colts Football
Posted
IMO I doubt he will be worth substantial draft picks, which makes it easy to keep him as a valuable backup who can start and win games for us in 2018.