ponyboy
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With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).
Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwiseColts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC (+1 IND)HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND. Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND. Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
- In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
- In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
- So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts. The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively. -
With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).
Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwiseColts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC (+1 IND)HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND. Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND. Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
- In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
- In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
- So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts. The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively. -
Just now, ponyboy said:
Not the #2 or #3, but in *this draft*, yes I would take Nelson with something around #6-#10. The #2 and #3 picks are trade spots for the Colts in this draft.
I just don't think there are any elite players at the premium positions in this one. If there were an elite pass rusher or OT, I would take them with #2 or #3, but I'm not seeing it.
I'll go ahead and spoil it for everybody.. SPOILER ALERT... if you don't want to know how it turns out stop now.
Colts trade #2 to NYG for #3, #34 (2018) and 4th (2019).
Giant want the the 2nd QB badly and so do others. They have to trade up to get their guy.
Colts trade #3 to CLE for #4, and #38 (2018).
CLE badly wants Barkley and so does SF. CLE has to cough up a pick to keep SF from trading in front.
Colts trade #4 to DEN for #8, #40, and 2nd (2019)
NYJ, DEN, ARI, BUF are bidding for the 3rd QB. It's a run on QBs.
Colts trade #8 to NYJ for #9, 2nd (2019)
ARI, NYJ, BUF still interested in 4th QB.
Colts take Nelson at #9
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On 12/5/2017 at 1:17 PM, NewColtsFan said:
The only real problem with Nelson is NOT Nelson's fault.
He's a guard. Do you really want to use a premium draft pick, top-10, on a non-premium position.
Not the #2 or #3, but in *this draft*, yes I would take Nelson with something around #6-#10. The #2 and #3 picks are trade spots for the Colts in this draft.
I just don't think there are any elite players at the premium positions in this one. If there were an elite pass rusher or OT, I would take them with #2 or #3, but I'm not seeing it.
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44 minutes ago, Superman said:
This illustrates the folly of needs-based drafting. You're prioritizing 2018 over the long term health of the roster. There is an obvious positional value advantage to drafting an edge rusher in the top five vs a guard in the top five.
In general that might be true, but It all depends on the players available. In this draft, it might very well be the case that Nelson is a much better talent any available edge rusher (both short and long term) . Do you see an elite edge rusher in the 2018 draft? You can whiff reaching for perceived positional value just as easily as reaching for a need.
We have needs at almost every position, but IMO, there is nothing more important than fixing the OL for 2018 and the long term. It can't be fixed in 2018 with FA alone. It will require a combination of at least one FA and at least one 2018 draftee starting on this OL.
If Nelson is that good and can be a Pro-Bowl level contributor out of the gate, then that goes a long way to fixing the OL when combined with a top FA signing. Hopefully the Colts could get a couple trade down opportunities and still pick him up somewhere in the top 8.
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Yes. I've been rooting for SF, NYG, CLE, DEN, CHI, TB for the past 8 weeks
Now just one more win from NYG (assuming we don't beat BAL and/or HOU). I think NYG have a good chance to win one or both of their last two against ARI and WSH. We could even beat HOU and still have #2 if the NYG win both.
If we are at #2 and the Giants at #3, the Giants would be a prime trade partner like the scenario with CHI trading from #3 to #2 to pick Trubisky (two #3s). Then trade down again. And again.
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4 minutes ago, JMichael557 said:
Nelson will not be cheaper. There is a salary wage scale for Rookies. Whoever we draft will get paid the same which is why you normally do not draft a guard.
He was referring to Nelson being cheaper compared to a FA signing (Norwell and/or Pugh). With the current CBA, a rookie contract will always be significantly cheaper than any top-FA signing for at least 4 years, regardless of position.
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5 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:
Two colts losses and two Giants wins that would move them behind us.
No, the Giants only need to win one (@ARI or WSH) if the Colts lose two for the Colts to move to #2.
I've posted the Strength-of-Schedule information in the thread "Weekly 2018 NFL draft order". The Colts have a significant SoS tie breaker against all teams in the bottom 7. Colts can even beat HOU and still potentially be at #2 if the Giants win two. Check out the thread for the details.
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After week 15 (before Sunday and Monday night games)
I'm posting this before the end of the Sunday and Monday night games. The outcomes of the Sunday and Monday night games will have little impact on the top 10 draft positions. I've projected a TB loss on Monday night in the table below, but even if TB wins, it's a minor impact on the bottom-6 teams and in the favor of the Colts.
Likewise, the outcome of the Sunday night game will have vary little impact on the top 10. I'm showing the SoS impact the for the different Sunday night outcomes. You can see that it changes no draft positions and has only minor impact on SoS, again only favoring the Colts by widening the SoS advantage with NYG and potentially SF.
This week I'm showing the including the impact of either Sunday night outcome. You'll see three valus in brackets shown after the SoS percentage. All of these show the number of opponent wins for the team at that draft position (the primary factor in the SoS calculation). The first is [wins without Sunday outcome]. The second is the [wins with DAL win]. The third is [wins with OAK win].
Observations
- Browns a lock for #1. Not mathematically, but realistically.
- Colts are almost certain to be picking #2 or #3, unless they win both.
- I think there is a good chance of NYG winning at least one of (@ARI or WSH)
- Colts maintain a very good advantage in SoS against all in bottom-7. Only CIN/DEN close in top 10.
- Colts finish 3-13
- A lock for #2 or #3. It's #2 if NYG win either (@ARI or WSH).
- I'm almost certain the SoS gap with NYG is too big for NYG to overcome.
- Colts finish 4-12.
- Still likely #3. #2 still possible if NYG win both (@ARI or WSH)
- If lose to BAL, beat HOU: still probably stay ahead of both HOU and SF in SoS*
- If beat BAL, lose HOU: only have to stay ahead of SF in SoS.*
- There is no way we lose SoS to CHI or TB from here on out.
- Colts finish 5-11
- I'm not going into scenarios because I can't see them beating BAL.
- But if they do, could be picking between #5-#9.
- SoS battles with CIN and DEN if both end at 5-11.
- Hopefully CHI beats CLE and stay ahead in SoS at 5-11.
- I think TB and HOU stay at 4-12 in this scenario.
- CLE, NYG, HOU, TB for sure ahead of IND.
- CHI, CIN, SF, and DEN potentially ahead of IND.
* I haven't proved it to myself yet, but I think the Colts might be guaranteed to stay ahead of HOU if both teams end 4-12 by Colts beating them in week 17. HOU is the closest SoS in the bottom 7 teams with a 4 game gap (109 vs. 113), but HOU would gain 2 additional opponent wins if Colts beat them, so it's really a 6 game gap they'd have to make up -- which might be unrealistic.
Upcoming key match-ups (draft-wise)
- Week 16 CLE at CHI (would like to see CHI get 5th win)
- Week 16 NYG at ARI (would like to see NYG get 3rd win)
- Week 16 JAX at SF (would like to see another SF get 5th win at home)
- Week 16 DEN at WSH (would like to see DEN get 6th win)
- Week 17 NYG at WSH (would like to see NYG get 3rd or 4th win)
Teams 0-14
#1 CLE 0.5134 [115] [115] [115] @CHI, @PIT
Teams 2-12
#2 NYG 0.5249 [116] [118] [117] @ARI, WSH
Teams 3-11
#3 IND 0.4866 [109] [109] [109] @BAL, HOU
Teams 4-10
#4 HOU 0.5045 [113] [113] [113] PIT, @IND
#5 SF 0.5112 [114] [115] [114] JAX, @LAR
#6 CHI 0.5580 [125] [125] [125] CLE, @MIN
#7 TB 0.5625 [126] [126] [126] @CAR, NO
Teams 5-9
#8 CIN 0.4732 [106] [106] [106] DET, @BAL
#9 DEN 0.4842 [107] [108] [109] @WSH, KC
#10 NYJ 0.5336 [119] [119] [120] LAC, @NE -
The correct answer is both of them.
With the #2 or #3 pick, and some luck, the Colts could turn that pick into a first pick in the #5-#10 range while gaining enough additional top 75 picks to allow a trade up into the lower first round. Nelson could be had in the #5-#10 range, and wait for McGlinchey/Williams/Brown near the end of the first round. Or maybe just wait until the top of the 2nd round without the need to trade up.
Yeah, it's too early to know where these top tackles will slot, but I'm kind of hoping we can get both Nelson and one of the top OT utilizing the bounty gained from multiple trade back opportunities at the top of the first round.
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After week 14
NOTE: I'm posting this before SUN night game. I'm projecting a win for BAL over PITT Sun night and NE over MIA Monday night for purposes of SoS. The outcome of BAL/PITT has no impact in the top #11 (not even SoS).
Observations
- I feel NYG have a good shot for one more win in the remaining 3 (ARI or WSH)
- Colts only have DEN close in SoS in the top 8 (and it's only 1 game difference with DEN).
- Colts could beat DEN Thursday and still be at #3 or #4 at end of week 15. #5 at worst.
- Colts at 3-13: almost a lock for #2 or #3
- Colts at 4-12: almost a lock for #3, #4, or #5 (#2 still possible).
- Colts at 5-11: still likely #6-#8 (#9 worst case).
Upcoming key match-ups (draft-wise)
- Week 15 TEN at SF (would like to see SF get 4th win)
- Week 16 CLE at CHI (would like to see CHI get 5th win)
- Week 16 DEN at WSH (would like to see DEN get another win)
- Week 16 NYG at ARI (would like to see NYG get 3rd win)
- Week 16 JAX at SF (would like to see another SF win at home)
- Week 17 NYG at WSH (would like to see NYG get 3rd or 4th win)
Teams 0-13
#1 CLE 0.5288 [110 wins] BAL, @CHI, @PIT
Teams 2-11
#2 NYG 0.5144 [107 wins] PHI, @ARI, WSH
Teams 3-10
#3 IND 0.4904 [102 wins] DEN, @BAL, HOU
#4 SF 0.5192 [108 wins] TEN, JAX, @LAR
Teams 4-9
#5 DEN 0.4856 [101 wins] @IND, @WSH, KC
#6 HOU 0.5144 [107 wins] @JAX, PIT, @IND
#7 CHI 0.5529 [115 wins] @DET, CLE, @MIN
#8 TB 0.5577 [116 wins] ATL, @CAR, NO
Teams 5-8
#9 CIN 0.4760 [ 99 wins] @MIN, DET, @BAL
#10 NYJ 0.5240 [109 wins] @NO, LAC, @NE
#11 WSH 0.5240 [109 wins] ARI, DEN, @NYG
#12 MIA 0.5577 [116 wins] @BUF, @KC, BUF
Teams 6-7
#13 ARI 0.4808 [100 wins] @WSH, NYG, @SEA
#14 OAK 0.5048 [105 wins] DAL, @PHI, @LAC -
On 12/6/2017 at 1:00 AM, NewColtsFan said:
Honest question: Are you by chance a CPA or some other profession involving math and strict formulas of how to use it?
Inquiring minds and all that....
Sincerly yours....
Your Fan Club.
I'm a software engineer. An early-mid 80s Purdue computer science guy.
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After week 13 (with one correction)
I thought CIN had beat PIT 20-10 in week 13.. but in fact PIT won 23-20. I was following the game on NFL Gamecast and pulling for CIN, but went to bed in the 3rd quarter. In the morning the Gamecast said 20-10 and I would swear it said FINAL. But the browser must of just needed a refresh.
Here's an update with that correction. It puts CIN back into the set of 5-7 teams (and the best SoS, too). It improves DEN SoS by 1 game.
Teams 0-12
#1 CLE 0.5365 [103 wins] GB, BAL, CHI, PIT
Teams 2-10
#2 NYG 0.5052 [ 97 wins] DAL, PHI, ARI, WSH
#3 SF 0.5260 [101 wins] HOU, TEN, JAX, LAR
Teams 3-9
#4 DEN 0.4844 [ 93 wins] NYJ, IND, WSH, KC
#5 IND 0.4948 [ 95 wins] BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU
#6 CHI 0.5521 [106 wins] CIN, DET, CLE, MIN
Teams 4-8
#7 HOU 0.5208 [100 wins] SF, JAX, PIT, IND
#8 TB 0.5521 [106 wins] DET, ATL, CAR, NO
Teams 5-7
#9 CIN 0,4740 [ 91 wins] CHI, MIN, DET, BAL#10 ARI 0.4896 [ 94 wins] TEN, WSH, NYG, SEA
#11 NYJ 0.5156 [ 99 wins] DEN, NO, LAC, NE
#12 WSH 0.5208 [100 wins] LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG
#13 MIA 0.5521 [106 wins] NE, BUF, KC, BUF -
After week 13
Notes
- Colts would have moved to #4 had PHI beat SEA in week 13.
- I've bolded the remaining games between team in the bottom 12.
- I've shown the number of oppnent's wins next to SoS percentage.
- Colts could theoretically move to #2 next week with
- NYG over DAL
- SF over HOU
- BUF over Colts
- 1 game SoS improvement with DEN
- no more then 2 game SoS loss with NYG
- Colts likely still in top-8 even if they end up at 5-11
Teams 0-12
#1 CLE 0.5365 [103 wins] GB, BAL, CHI, PIT
Teams 2-10
#2 NYG 0.5052 [ 97 wins] DAL, PHI, ARI, WSH
#3 SF 0.5260 [101 wins] HOU, TEN, JAX, LAR
Teams 3-9
#4 DEN 0.4896 [ 94 wins] NYJ, IND, WSH, KC
#5 IND 0.4948 [ 95 wins] BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU
#6 CHI 0.5521 [106 wins] CIN, DET, CLE, MIN
Teams 4-8
#7 HOU 0.5208 [100 wins] SF, JAX, PIT, IND
#8 TB 0.5521 [106 wins] DET, ATL, CAR, NO
Teams 5-7
#9 ARI 0.4896 [ 94 wins] TEN, WSH, NYG, SEA
#10 NYJ 0.5156 [ 99 wins] DEN, NO, LAC, NE
#11 WSH 0.5208 [100 wins] LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG
#12 MIA 0.5521 [106 wins] NE, BUF, KC, BUF -
1 hour ago, JaguarsWoman said:
The Giants don't need to tank. They already were locked in at the #3 pick.
The Giants being locked in at #3 is not even close to being true. A Giants win next week and a Colts and Denver loss, the Giants would move to #5 as early as next week. Unless you're trying to say they are so bad that they have no chance to win again this year. I think with Eli they had a shot at at least 2 more wins this year (2 of WASH, DAL, OAK, and ARI).
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After week 12 (before Monday night outcome)
I'm too tired to stay up for the end of tonight's game, so here's an update without the final from HOU/BAL.
Observations
- In the top 9, Colts have decent SoS advantage over all but DEN so far.
- If OAK, LAC, KC could start winning more, DEN SoS would pop enough to pass Colts.
- I see Colts ceiling at 5-11. More likely outcome 4-12.
- If Colts stay at 5 for fewer wins, teams at 6 wins pick after Colts and many 5 win teams would pick after too.
- I think there is a reasonable chance both SF and NYG end up with at least 3 wins.
- At 3-13, Colts would be picking #2, #3, or #4.
- At 4-12, Colts likely picking #4 or #5.
- At 5-11, Colts still likely somewhere between #4-#9.
Notable match-ups week 13 (draft-wise)SF at CHI
- SF win narrows gap with Colts. Colts likely to maintain SoS advantage over SF throughout.
- CHI win puts space between CHI and Colts. Minor help to Colts SoS.TB at GB
- I would like to see TB get to 5 wins. Colts will likely maintain SoS with TB throughout.HOU at TEN
- HOU win widens gap between HOU/IND.AFC West matchups
DEN at MIA, CLE at LAC, KC at NYJ, NYG at OAK
- NYG could leap frog Colts with a win.
- DEN could leap frog Colts with a win. But a MIA win at least widens gap with MIA/IND.
- NYJ could widen the gap with Colts with a win.
- CLE could... ah never mind. CLE is picking #1. Might as well root for CLE to lose out at this point.
- Even if DEN loses and all other AFC West win, DEN would have 7-0 SoS bump from these 4 games alone- possibly leap frogging the Colts even in loss due to SoS. Certainly narrowing the gap.
Teams 0-11
#1 CLE 0.5260 LACTeams 1-10
#2 SF 0.5371 CHI
Teams 2-9
#3 NYG 0.5114 OAK
Teams 3-8
#4 DEN 0.4830 MIA
#5 IND 0.4913 JAX
#6 CHI 0.5543 SF
Teams 4-7
#7 NYJ 0.5170 KC
#8 MIA 0.5486 DEN
#9 TB 0.5625 GB
Teams 4-6
#10 HOU 0.5086 TEN
Teams 5-6
#11 LAC 0.4545 CLE
#12 CIN 0.4682 PIT
#13 ARI 0.4857 LAR
#14 OAK 0.4857 NYG
#15 DAL 0.4886 WAS
#16 WSH 0.5170 DAL
#17 GB 0.5371 TB
Teams 5-5
#18 BAL 0.4629 DET -
After week 11
Teams 0-10
#1 CLE 0.5250 CINTeams 1-9
#2 SF 0.5250 SEA
Teams 2-8
#3 NYG 0.5063 WAS
Teams 3-7
#4 DEN 0.4750 OAK
#5 IND 0.4813 TENN
#6 CHI 0.5625 PHI
Teams 4-6
#7 LAC 0.4625 DAL
#8 CIN 0.4750 CLE
#9 ARI 0.4875 JAX
#10 OAK 0.4875 DEN
#11 HOU 0.5063 BAL
#12 NYJ 0.5188 CAR
#13 WAS 0.5188 NYG
#14 MIA 0.5438 NE
#15 TB 0.5688 ATL
Teams 5-5
#16 BAL 0.4625 HOU
#17 DAL 0.4750 LAC
#18 BUF 0.5063 KC
#19 GB 0.5438 PITT -
No mention in this thread that it was actually Allen AND our 6th (a mid 6th) for an end of 4th pick. Basically Allen for trading up about 50 spots to #137ish.
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On 11/13/2017 at 12:09 AM, Defjamz26 said:
Couple of questions since you seem to be a numbers guy?
2. Based on SOS what are the chances the Colts land a top 5 pick? And what are the chances they land a top 10 pick.
It'll be easier to do some analysis in a couple weeks.
Colts have favorable SoS against ties with any of TB, CHI, CLE, SF, NYG (and many others).
But the real question is how many wins will the Colts end up with. Based on their performance the past two weeks, and the remaining schedule, I could see the Colts winning 2, 3, or 4 more games -- if Brissett stays healthy.
But let's look at the remaining schedules of the teams with the worst records. If the Colts lose out they are almost a lock for a top 4 pick. Even if they win up to 2 more games, something in the #5-#9 range I would think.
Key remaining schedules:
CIN: @DEN, CLE, PIT, CHI, @MIN, DET, @BAL
DEN: CIN, @OAK, @MIA, NYJ, @IND, @WAS, KC
LAC: BUF, @DAL, CLE, WAS, KC, NYJ, OAK
SF: BYE, SEA, @CHI, @HOU, TEN, JAX, @LAR
NYG: KC, @WAS, @OAK, DAL, PHI, @ARI, WAS
CLE: JAX, @CIN, @LAC, GB, BAL, @CHI, @PIT
IND: BYE, TEN, @JAX, @BUF, DEN, @BAL, HOU
TB: @MIA, @ATL, @GB, DET, ATL, @CAR, NO
CHI: DET, @PHI, SF, @CIN, @DET, CLE, @MINLet me start by saying I think the Colts will win 2 or 3 more games, if Brissett stays health.
Possible IND wins: TEN, BUF, DEN, BAL, HOUBut let's look at three possible outcomes for Colts: 3-13, 4-12, and 5-11.
Colts 3-13 (#1-#5 possible; #3-#4 most likely)
Colts #1: CLE wins 3 AND SF wins 2 more AND NYG wins 2 more. SoS stays in Colts favor (unlikely).
Colts #2: SF wins 2 more AND NYG win 2 more. SoS stays in Colts favor (slight)
Colts #3: SF OR NYG win 2 more. SoS stays in Colts favor. (maybe, SF could win 2 more IMO)Possile CLE wins: 3 of CIN, LAC, GB, BAL, CHI (probably not)
Possible SF wins: 2 of SEA, CHI, HOU, TEN (maybe)
Possible NYG wins: 2 of WAS, WAS, ARI, DAL (not too crazy)
Colts could easily have SoS advantage over all three.Colts #4: None of above scenarios pan out. Colts likely here because:
If Colts have 3 wins: only CHI, TB, LAC, CIN could also be as low as 3 wins. But,
- LAC will likely win at least one more. Possible CLE, CHI, BUF.
- CHI will likely win at least one more game or lose to Colts on SoS. Possible CLE, SF, CIN, DET, DET
- TB may not win anymore, but would likely lose to Colts on SoS.
- CIN will hopefully win one more. SoS will be close between IND/CIN. Possible win CLE, DEN, CHI.Colts 4-12
To be continued after week 10 or 11.
Colts 5-11
To be continued after week 10 or 11.
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This article from walterfootball.com claims some teams have late-third to fourth round grades on him. The article is from early November. I'm sure that's where some of the 3rd round talk is coming from.
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After week 10 (through Sunday afternoon games)
Key games I was watching this week along with Colts.
- LAC had JAX beat and blew it. LAC win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- CIN had TEN down to the final minutes. CIN win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- TB beat NYJ TB leap-frogged many teams in draft order due to SoSKey games I'm following next week.
CIN over DEN. (CIN would likly leap frog Colts with lose, but DEN is close too)
LAC over BUF. (LAC could leap frog Colts with loss. SoS would be close)
CLE over JAX. (Any AFC South lose helps Colts in SoS)
BAL over GB (BAL only 1 game up, SoS is better than Colts)
TB over MIA (Need to get some distance between Colts and TB).
CHI over DET (Need to get some distance between Colts and CHI).
NYG over KC (Eh, aint gonna happen).HOU vs ARI -- either way could help Colts. HOU win probably helps more draftwise.
Teams 0-9
#1 CLE 0.5000 JAXTeams 1-9
#2 SF 0.5448 BYE
Teams 1-8
#3 NYG 0.5278 KC
Teams 3-7
#4 IND 0.4861 BYE
Teams 3-6
#5 CIN 0.4641 DEN
#6 LAC 0.4894 BUF
#7 HOU 0.5068 ARI
#8 CHI 0.5379 DET
#9 TB 0.5563 MIATeams 3-5
#10 DEN 0.4792 CIN (play Sunday Night)
Teams 4-6
#11 NYJ 0.5252 BYE
Teams 4-5
#12 BAL 0.4583 GB
#13 ARI 0.4898 HOU
#14 OAK 0.5035 NE
#15 WSH 0.5278 NO
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I recall a goal post dunk moving the goal post and putting it out of level. The game was delayed to fix the goal post. The no dunk rule is a good rule, IMO.
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You're not going to acquire good enough picks for Brissett to make it worth trading him. He's valuable to the Colts as a good/cheap backup when Luck returns in 2018.
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Agreed. Sack dances too.
Now just one more win from NYG (assuming we don't beat BAL and/or HOU). I think NYG have a good chance to win one or both of their last two against ARI and WSH. We could even beat HOU and still have #2 if the NYG win both.
I Confess.....
in Colts Football
Posted
Maybe next week against WSH at home. The Giants carry Eli off on their shoulders. Yeah, I can see it.