ponyboy
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Posts posted by ponyboy
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On 12/16/2023 at 3:39 PM, NewColtsFan said:
Read the comments in this thread. Some are suggesting he could eventually replace Grover.Do you misread or misunderstand a post? I just checked all posts in this thread and didn't notice any that suggested Grover should be replaced by Tart. One suggested he might be an alternative if Grover decides to sign elsewhere (at least that's how I took it).
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The 'Whopper" thread? When Irsay hinted Grigson was about to do a big trade (I think Larry Fitzgerald was the rumor).
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1 hour ago, krunk said:
Why would Ballard say that the relationship with Taylor is "Repairable" if Taylor is the one telling the lies? If the Colts have played things by the books then what would there be to repair?
I took this to mean the Colts are leaving a path for Taylor to save face (a little) and return without having to admit he was lying all along. They've acknowledged the on-going pain with ankle and that he won't play until Taylor feels it's safe to return. They might still believe he's lying, but are leaving a path for him to return after sitting out by claiming the ankle is now good enough when he returns. This is an olive branch being offered by the team. Just my opinion.
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1 minute ago, Smoke317 said:
But why on 3rd down? You’re in the red zone. Take another shot at the 6. What’s 5 more seconds off the clock at that point?
Yeah, timeout too. Even if Murray scrambled and came up short they could have stopped the clock and kicked the FG on 4th.. but a much better chance at the TD there than after the onside kick.
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The Raiders would have absolutely no leverage what so ever in trade negotiations if they sign Brady or are known to be aggressively pursuing him.
The only thing that would drive the trade price up would be multiple teams bidding for Carr. If only one team is negotiating the trade I would expect it to be for a mid-level pick, such as a 4th or 5th rounder because Raiders would have to trade him no matter what's being offered. If two or more teams are involved then I could see the trade value rising to a second rounder or maybe two 3rd round picks (2020 and 2021) instead of a 2020 2nd rounder.
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13 hours ago, EastStreet said:
1) The average of their draft position is 56th, which would be late second round.
2) Only 4 of 11 were taken top 10. 1 of those benched, and only one made the playoffs
3) 5 of the 11, were taken after the 1st round...
9. D Carr / R1-1 / Missed Playoffs
Note - he was the assumed #1, and went #1
You are confusing Derek Carr with David Carr's draft position here. Might want to update your stats.
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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:
He had some very pretty passes vs Bama. I still remember watching both of those game. Both Ws vs Bama I was like WTH is going on.
Yes (some shown in Swag3), but the passes against Fresno State (Swag2) are even better.
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Unlock the Swag
Be warned, if you watch these two videos, you will have 'Unlock the Swag' ear worm for days.
Swag 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9xasXnDNDo)
Swag 3 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GETkgADOmqg)
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Some have stated..
Why are people so intrigued by Chad Kelley?
The absolutely jaw-dropping elite quick release, accuracy, and velocity that he showed in those pre-season games. If you didn't see them go check them out, it was very impressive.
But it was only against 4th string talent.. lol
I don't care how it was demonstrated. The jaw-dropping traits were evident. People can get intrigued by demonstrating this kind of ability at a pro-day workout where there is no competition at all. So as far as demonstrating jaw-dropping traits, the argument that it was against non-first string talent is moot.
But let's talk a little about the level of competition in which he succeeded in pre-season. Games 1 and 2 he played the 4th quarter against lesser talent.. BUT, he was also playing with 3rd/4th string talent on his side too (OL/WR/TE).
He started pre-season games 3 and 4 as they decided to hold JB out of the rest of preseason. So he at least faced the other teams starters for those games, not the 3rd or 4th string. He was successful in every pre-season game.
He's a risk that you can't allow to be the face of a franchise.
Agreed, he's a risk. I might be naive, but I believe anybody in his situation would understand this is his last change, be completely humbled, and put 100% focus into his career while he still has a chance.
How incredibly lucky was it for Chad that Luck retired? He had no chance of playing and then, all of the sudden, he might be the most talented QB on the team. He just needs to get his head straight. He's reaching that magical age of 25 where males are finally starting to fully mature. Is he on the right track.. only the team really knows.. I sure hope so.
But he was not claimed off the practice squad by another team when exposed
This surprised me. I thought he would be claimed. This is the one thing that gives me pause. But the fact that they kept on on the roster at the end of the season shows the team didn't want to risk it again.
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If four QBs and three OTs go before pick 13, that means at least one of these blue chip positional prospects will be available at 13.
Chase Young
Isaiah Simmons
Jeff Okudah
Derrick Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Jerry JeudyPick #13 looks like the spot where the blue chip positional talent and top-4 QBs will still be guaranteed available. It would be hard not to take one of these 6 or one of top three OTs at this point.
When this pick on on the clock I bet there will be a lot of interest from teams wanting to move up, and Colts would have leverage to demand a bit more than the trade charts typical would indicate because they can keep the pick and get a blue chip prospect.
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Regarding watching preseason games outside local market..
I'm not in the local market, but I watch preseason games live via nfl.gamepass ($99 / year). For regular season games, gamepass gives you the live local radio broadcast during the game, then you can watch the video broadcast right after the game ends.
My game day routine is to listen to the live radio broadcast (with gamepass) and follow the live game cast on either espn or nfl.com. Then once the game is over I can watch the video broadcast of the game on gamepass (commercial breaks and halftime are removed from this feed).
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Could be Aaron Rodgers... Let's try an "A"
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Hmmm... could be Peyton Manning.... Give me an "N"
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16 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:
The right QB can win you a lot of games while your fixing the rest of the roster. A DT is not going to do that.
That's kind of obvious. Luck is an example of that. It's also true that the wrong QB can lose you a lot of games while wasting an improved roster.
And if you spend significant draft capital to draft that QB, then you are going to give them additional years to prove themselves before you're able to pull the plug on a bad decision (QB purgatory). Meanwhile, with the lost draft capital, you may have missed out on top-tier talent in a couple other key positions.
The question is, do any of the QBs available in THIS draft look like long term solutions worthy of #13 or even a trade up? Some think there are and others don't. I think this is the root of most disagreements about this draft.
The fact that there may be much more top-tier QB talent (and even generational talent) in the 2021 draft is something to keep in mind. If the Colts start 2020 the way they ended 2019, there's a good chance they will be a contender for that top talent in 2021. I wouldn't want to trade any of the 2021 picks to move up this year.
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21 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:
Trey Adams is going back to school.
I don't think this is correct. Trey Adams was a 5th year senior in 2019. He has no more college eligibility. He decided to return to Washington for the 2019 season rather then enter the draft last year.
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None of the above, please.
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5 hours ago, stitches said:
IMO it's very likely that if we get a QB we will trade up to get him. If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft.
IMO you would only want to do this if you're targeting a top-tier QB. I only see one healthy top-tier QB in the 2020 draft and he's going #1, and it's very unlikely any team could get the Bengals to trade that pick. Tua is a top-tier QB with serious injury risks, but a team might have to trade into the top 10 to get him.
Other than those two, I only see a group of second tier QBs (like Haskins and Lock last year). Of course, that's just my novice opinion and experts will certainly have better opinions whether some of this remaining group are deserving of top-tier grades.
That's not to say teams don't reach and trade up for second tier QBs.. they do. But it often results in a significant multi-year setback (QB purgatory plus lost draft capital) when they're wrong.
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After week 17
Hope this thread was useful.
Observations
- DEN and NYJ might be competing to trade up for the third QB
- CLE and TB might want to trade up for Barkley
- With a little luck we could swing a trade from 3->4 (Barkley) then 4->5 (3rd QB)
- If three QBs and Barkley go in top 4 we still have our choice of top player at any other position at 5
Teams 0-16
#1 CLE 0.5195 133
Teams 3-13
#2 NYG 0.5313 136
Teams 4-12
#3 IND 0.4805 123
#4 HOU 0.5156 132
Teams 5-11
#5 DEN 0.4922 126
#6 NYJ 0.5195 133
#7 TB 0.5547 142
#8 CHI 0.5586 143
Teams 6-10
#9 OAK 0.5117 131
#10 SF 0.5117 131
#11 MIA 0.5439 139
Teams 7-9
#12 CIN 0.4648 119
#13 GB 0.5391 138
#14 WSH 0.5391 138
Teams 8-8
#15 ARI 0.4883 125
Teams 9-7
#16 BAL 0.4414 113
#17 LAC 0.4570 117
#18 SEA 0.4922 126
#19 DAL 0.4961 127
#20 DET 0.4961 127 -
After week 16 (before Monday games)
Not much drama left. Browns picking #1. Colts/Giants are picking #3 or #2. I've projected PHI and PIT wins on Monday for these stats, but they really don't impact much at this point (except potentially moving HOU to the 5 win group).
Observations
- It would be really good to get that #2 pick. I think we could get something from NYG to move #3->#2.
- Would be good if QB needy teams don't get drop too far down. I'm thinking DEN or NYJ as a prime trading partner.
- Trading partners for Barkley? Maybe CLE (#4), TB (#5), or SF (#7).
- Would like to see TB join the 5 win teams and potentially move DEN/NYJ higher.
- Would like to see SF improve SoS and move behind NYJ.
Teams 0-15
#1 CLE 0.5167 124 (@PIT)
Teams 2-13
#2 NYG 0.5333 128 (WSH)
Teams 3-12
#3 IND 0.4833 116 (HOU)
Teams 4-11
#4 HOU 0.5083 122 (@IND)
#5 TB 0.5583 134 (NO)
Teams 5-10
#6 DEN 0.4833 116 (KC)
#7 SF 0.5208 125 (@LAR)
#8 NYJ 0.5208 125 (@NE)
#9 CHI 0.5583 134 (@MIN)
Teams 6-9
#10 CIN 0.4667 112
#11 OAK 0.5083 122
#12 MIA 0.5417 130 -
2 hours ago, Jaredfor3 said:
Don’t hold your breath banking on the Giants to beat the Cardinals.
20 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:And they didn't.
Maybe next week against WSH at home. The Giants carry Eli off on their shoulders. Yeah, I can see it.
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With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).
Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwiseColts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC (+1 IND)HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND. Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND. Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
- In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
- In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
- So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts. The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively. -
With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).
Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwiseColts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC (+1 IND)HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND. Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND. Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
- In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
- In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
- So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts. The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively. -
Just now, ponyboy said:
Not the #2 or #3, but in *this draft*, yes I would take Nelson with something around #6-#10. The #2 and #3 picks are trade spots for the Colts in this draft.
I just don't think there are any elite players at the premium positions in this one. If there were an elite pass rusher or OT, I would take them with #2 or #3, but I'm not seeing it.
I'll go ahead and spoil it for everybody.. SPOILER ALERT... if you don't want to know how it turns out stop now.
Colts trade #2 to NYG for #3, #34 (2018) and 4th (2019).
Giant want the the 2nd QB badly and so do others. They have to trade up to get their guy.
Colts trade #3 to CLE for #4, and #38 (2018).
CLE badly wants Barkley and so does SF. CLE has to cough up a pick to keep SF from trading in front.
Colts trade #4 to DEN for #8, #40, and 2nd (2019)
NYJ, DEN, ARI, BUF are bidding for the 3rd QB. It's a run on QBs.
Colts trade #8 to NYJ for #9, 2nd (2019)
ARI, NYJ, BUF still interested in 4th QB.
Colts take Nelson at #9
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On 12/5/2017 at 1:17 PM, NewColtsFan said:
The only real problem with Nelson is NOT Nelson's fault.
He's a guard. Do you really want to use a premium draft pick, top-10, on a non-premium position.
Not the #2 or #3, but in *this draft*, yes I would take Nelson with something around #6-#10. The #2 and #3 picks are trade spots for the Colts in this draft.
I just don't think there are any elite players at the premium positions in this one. If there were an elite pass rusher or OT, I would take them with #2 or #3, but I'm not seeing it.
Texans have both OROY and DROY
in NFL General
Posted
And then you have the Carolina Panthers...