TomDiggs

Loved the post and agreed w a ton of it. I have said in repeated topics that if you put Howie and Ballard together you’d have the perfect GM. imho, Howie is not the best drafter. He has had some misses and some terrible evals in the draft. But he is a wizard in FA and in trading. I think the hard part that our fan base just can’t seem to come to grips with is that our philosophy is not going to be to be big players in free agency w this GM. He has said it over and over and fans that get hopes up are always disappointed. I will add this tidbit that everyone seems to ignore: we truly have no inside insight into how Irsay thinks about this. For all we know, he is all on board w this approach and leading the charge. The colts are his lifeblood. He doesn’t have a major source of income outside of it. We know from very sources that the colts have a budget they set every year that they can’t go above. This might be something restricting our spending snd even Ballard’s willingness to change his stripes. I will also admit that there haven’t been many free agents under Ballard that we have added where I later regretted the addition nor the contract. whereas when we last spent freely under Grigson, a lot didn’t work out. I remember how excited I was the Andre Johnson and Frank Gore year and how terrible it went lol. I often stick up for Ballard only because I genuinely couldn’t name 10 GMs I’d rather have right now. And definitely can’t think of a specific candidate I’d take over him if he walked. like other, I’d like to see what Dodds or Morocco would do in the same position. But they at least have to have some alignment philosophically w Ballard or they wouldn’t still be here and be his top lieutenants. here’s hoping the turn around starts w this rookie QB and that that turn around includes opening the check book while the rookie is on that rookie qb contract in years 2-4.

I usually really like Baldy and love his takes. Especially along the defensive and offensive fronts. But my goodness this is a brutal take. "If you are looking for experienced depth and position flexibility on your offensive line then make a phone call to Pryor. Not many guys this big this young this experienced walking around. Get Pryor; Get Better." Bahahahahaa

Understood and agreed that said , I don’t care what positions it was spent on so much as the money was spent (when it comes to the cheap narrative). people that are disagreeing with and questioning the investment in the oline and the investment in trying to fix qb (and being unsuccessful ultimately in both) have a valid and justified gripe. but a majority of our fan base is complaining about not spending to Improve the offense and that isn’t accurate. It just isn’t being spent at rb and pass catchers which are the sexier positions. And it isn’t being spent in UFA which is where everyone wants to see the splashes. and I genuinely believe until Ballard is no longer the GM, our fans need to expect this to continue and either accept it or just stop complaining about it because history shows us this is who he is and it doesn’t seem likely to change. So it’s just screaming into the void. Repeatedly lol. he will pay JT most likely. Might even pay Pittman. But anyone expecting him to go out and land a big fish at WR or even TE is going to continue to be disappointed I could even see another big contract on the OL if we ever move on from Kelly in the next year or two (before we could have to pay Raimann in 2 yrs if he pans out). But I don’t see us adding our version of Diggs, AJ Brown, etc. which I agree stinks because that’s the kinda thing that has put some teams and developing QBs over the top recently.

No offense to Campbell, but Campbell really did not do anything to justify keeping. Okereke absolutely justified being kept, but not when he was outplayed by Franklin who is making $4M a year and Bobby O would have come back as a part time guy for $10M+ behind Shaq and Z. So those are examples where I can see not keeping the home-grown guys sadly.

Also, while i expected Kelly and Kenny to be moved before today, I also commend the approach when it comes to them. Right now before today teams probably sat there and said "I am not giving them a 6th or a 7th for Kelly or Moore when they are going to cut them before Sunday anyhow and I can just sign them for no pick loss". Now that the Colts picked up those options, it at least gives the perception (if not the true reality) that we are keeping these guys in the absence of someone making us a valid offer for them. So if that entices people to then get a fire under themselves to come with an offer, great.

FWIW, all the "Ballard is cheap" and "Ballard won't spend on offense", etc is a little bit misconstrued. I wont re-hash old posts where i showed how the Colts spent the most in the entire NFL on offense the past handful of years, but at the minimum here let's talk "philosophy". What Ballard will not do is compete with other teams for players and go above the player's value to outbid someone else who is willing to pay the player more than he is worth. He is disciplined and sets a number and sticks to it. And if the player ends up elsewhere as a result so be it. He has essentially said he won't play "B" players "A" money. What the Jags did last year for Lawrence was not good business. Did it work? Sure did. And because of that people will give kudos. But paying Christian Kirk what they did was mocked and was actually not a great thing. Kirk ended up playing up to that contract and earning it. Which is awesome. But for every Kirk there is a Golladay that does not live up to it. The smarter and more astute thing the Jags did and should be praised for was them buying low on Calvin Ridley in a trade. That could pay off huge this season. Ballard is much more the type to trade for a guy and then extend him. Once he is on our team and it is us negotiating with the player and not us plus 3-5 other teams negotiating with the player against each other. He also, obviously, spends to keep players that we grew and who proved they worked out here. That way he knows his investment is in both proven talent and talent that fits here and has proven to fit here. All this to say, if or when he extends guys like JT and Pittman it will be because they earned it and deserved it and proved they did prior. And because we are extending them bidding against only ourselves in that moment. It is very much a measured approach. And is all the more reason why we shouldn't ever expect big fish in FA to be pursued and won. Which is truly frustrating at times. I get it. I truly do. I also have to admit there are very, very few FAs that signed this off-season so far that I said "damn I wish we got him for that". And the few that i have said that to i can see why they went where they went and likely wouldn't have come to a rebuilding Indy team for the same thing. We would have had to player "A" prices for "B" talent to get them here. All of that being said, I am all for us continuing to add the next few weeks or so before the draft. We need a reliable swing OT. Badly. We need someone to compete at RG. We still need depth along the DL especially at DT even with Bryan signing. We need probably 3 CBs. And another S. And a slot WR. And a blocking TE. Lots of work still to do but happy it will be at the lower thresholds of prices.

Looks like they got him at a decent discount. Probably about 75-80% or so of what was expected when free agency opened. Good deal for Pitt

I have watched Kelly play over the past few years and agreed his regression has been stark. I also wonder if he could actually be re-invigorated in a newer scheme under Sparano and company. He used to be stellar when we got him out in space. Sparano's blocking schemes have had a good amount of Center pulling and movement and blocking out in space. Now that could re-invigorate Kelly and bring back the Pro-Bowl form, or it could highlight even more how far he has regressed and be a total disaster. My gut feeling was always we would try to trade him and if it did not work then we would begrudgingly release him. Tomorrow (Sunday) could be the day. But he could just as easily be here for this coming season. I would love to find a way to land John Michael Schmitz in the draft. But that is probably a fantasy at this point.

I think a bunch of us both wanted him and liked our chances I will admit, I always thought the chances of landing him resided on our ability to trade or at least cut Kelly prior. There was no way we were going to add a 4th OL at over $10M a year if that is what it would take to get him. And all indications were he would be worth that kind of money. Will be curious to see if Pitt got him at a discount w it being later in the FA wave

I admit this one hurts a bit as many Colts fans were holding out hope he would land here.

Mariota replaces Minshew as the backup in Philly and gets some bank for it.

I think a bunch of fans would like Seumalo. I know I would. But based on the early market, he probably deserves a contract in that $10M-$12M per year range. Considering how much we are paying Q annd Braden and Kelly, I can't see us paying that. I do think if we cut or trade Kelly then we can afford to pay that to Seumalo and then replace Kelly at Center with Pinter or a rookie Pinter sucked at RG but he is a decent OC I would love a rookie like John Michael Schmitz. Or even Luke Wypler or Joe Tippmann. JMS would probably have to be taken w our early 2 to get him. With all our needs I am not sure if we would do that. So probably a combo of Pinter and an OC in the Round 3-4 range would work for me if we went with Seumalo.

I am hopeful on OL if we move on from Kelly and upgrade at RG I am genuinely excited about Raimann and his progress and development at LT Even with down years after getting paid, I am still high on the ability to bounce back for Quenton and Braden. We need to upgrade at OC and RG I am actually high on the young TEs. Ogletree is going to be a welcome surprise if he comes in healthy this year. Woods' potential is through the roof. Granson can still make things happen. We need a slot WR that can separate (I don't care how big they are size-wise even if Ballard does). But it all starts w fixing OC and RG in my opinion.

Regarding Lamar and his asks, there's a handful of info out on Lamar that has been validated to then be able to pull the thread and infer what he likely wants He turned down a long term 5-year deal that Schefter outlined that they saw where he had $175M guaranteed for injury and where there was a "springing guarantee" where the guaranteed money would jump to $200M if he was on the roster on the 5th day of 2026. So protection against injury he had $175M guaranteed. And a $25M guarantee activated in year 4 of a 5 year deal if he lasted that long that would have resulted in $200M guaranteed. Lamar turned that down. He then talked about a shorter fully guaranteed deal. So Baltimore then offered the 3 year deal at $133M fully guaranteed (~$44M APY) Lamar turned that down. BMore then threw their hands up. They tried all different ways and kepy getting a no. Now the interesting part is in terms of QBs the largest guaranteed money (fully guaranteed) to date: Watson ($230M) Russ ($124M) Kyler ($103M) ARod ($102M) J.Allen ($100M) Even if you extrend that to "practical guarantees" which are likely to be earned you get: Watson ($230) Kyler ($189) Russ ($161) ARod ($151) Allen ($150) Mahomes ($141) Stafford ($130) Dak ($126) Goff ($110) M.Ryan ($100- over his extended contract from ATL to IND) It is very easy to see that the 5 year deal would put him above all but Watson in full guarantees and above all but Watson and Kyler in practical guarantees. You could even put him over Kyler at the $200M mark w the springing guarantee being deemed practical. So if he is saying no to all that and also to the amount on the shorter term full guarantee then it is easy to pull the thread and say hes looking for a Watson contract and he either wants $200m+ fully guaranteed on a 5 yr deal or he wants a shorter 3 year deal fully guaranteed at more than $133M which probably means he wants around $150M or so there. just food for thought

My guess is he will have some WR incentives and either playing time or team success incentives. but the going rate for elite ST types is around $2.5-$3M a year. That’s what Matthew Slater tends to get. so a purely ST contract for him would likely be in that 2-$6M range. I’ll be curious to see the finer details when they come out

Also posted this in the big FA thread, but for those looking for Matt Gay contract numbers here they are: Gay got $13M of the $22.5M guaranteed, but $8M of it is in a signing bonus spread over the 4 years, $1.08M is is 2023 salary guaranteed and $3.92M is guaranteed in 2024. So basically no guaranteed money after 2024 and if he were cut in 2025 he would have a $4M dead cap hit compared to his $6.75M charge if on the roster. And if cut heading into 2026 he would have a $2M dead cap hit compared to $6.75M if on the roster. 2023 cash: $9.08M Cap numbers: 2023: $3.08M (guaranteed) 2024: $5.92M (guaranteed) 2025: $6.75M (no guarantees, $4M cap charge if cut) 2026: $6.75M (no guarantees, $2M cap charge if cut)

Contract details coming in for both Ebukam and Gay: Ebukam: Basically around $11M in cash in 2023, but cap hit is probably around $5.3M Then (before incentives), around $7.7M in 2024 and $11M in 2025. With him having the ability to earn an extra $3M total if he reaches sack escalators and playing time/playoff escalators. To have numbers that look like the following is a really reasonable get. Especially with those out-year cap numbers likely jumping: 2023: $5.3M 2023: $7.7M (with incentives making it up to $8.7) 2024: $11.0M (with incentives making it up to $13.0M) Gay: 2023 cash: $9.08M Cap numbers: 2023: $3.08M 2024: $5.92M 2025: $6.75M 2026: $6.75M

Hang on hang on hang on! Let me calm you down and talk you off the ledge lol Matt Gay is a bigtime upgrade. Chase had a good year. He did. But Chase was historically not great before last year. He was a band aid that had a career year. And is not likely to repeat it. Chase's career numbers are decent. 78.8% on FGs. He is even decent at 50+ yards at 81% Where is he brutal? where it matters most for kickers a lot of the time. 40-49 yards. He is a career 59.4% kicker from that range. Oof. Gay was here on the PS in 2020 before the Rams signed him away from our PS. Since then? Gay is 91.5% on FGs, still 75% at 50+ (solid) and exceptional 40-49 at 88% Ballard doesn't spend money for us seemingly ever. I will definitely not bash him for making our team better by spending money. We just got better. A kicker is not a premium position, but the Gay contract is in line with what he should make as a top-5 kicker. And we already know him well from his half a season here hopefully. It is a good get.

Yea he was signed to our PS back then when he lost the TB job to Succop back in the day. He was basically signed as competition/insurance to a rookie Hot Rod and lost out to Hot Rod Rams scooped him around the middle of the season 2020 when they had their own kicker injuries and basically 2021-2022 he has been a top-5 kicker for them. Good get.

Gay should also be handling kick-offs. He has a strong leg and is a big boy (6'0" 232 lbs) and he was 12th in terms of PFF kickoff grade out of 30 Kickers. Chase was 10th. So very similar performance on kick-offs and a pretty great upgrade in FGs/XPs For numbers, he handled 77 kickoffs last year and only 16 were returned. That is just 21% of kickoffs returned. And the average return on those was only 21.6 yards. The average field position start was basically the 26 yard line. Chase (as a comparison) had 47% of his kickoffs returned. So Matt Gay is solid on kickoffs. The last two years Matt Gay has easily been a top-5 kicker. In terms of PFF grading (for those that go by that as a loose rough idea metric), he was a 90.0 last year (4th overall) and 82.6 the year before. Those are basically Justin Tucker/Daniel Carlson/Younghoe Koo type grades He deserves what he just got paid

Dalvin Tomlinson to the Browns on a big deal Side note: As Colts fans we really, really should enjoy Grover this season, because I feel like there is a strong likelihood this will be his last year here. He will be a FA next season and be 31 at that point. The Interior DL market has exploded this off-season. Non-Edge Defensive linemen have received some of the biggest contracts so far: D.Payne- $22.5 average per year (APY) J.Hargrave- $21M APY D.Jones- $17M APY Z.Allen- $16M APY D.Tomlinson- $14.3M APY D.Onyemata- $11.7M APY And this is before the next wave of superstar non-Edge DL get their bag coming up with guys like Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, etc Fans should really enjoy him while we can. He has become an absolute monster in the middle and easily is a $15M-$20M APY guy after this year even though he isn't racking up sacks. The league is finally recognizing the value of the big guys that do the dirty work even if they are not 8-10 sack per season guys. Long overdue.

I’m low-key excited to see Domann get some defensive reps was very solid on ST and had that coverage hybrid S/LB profile coming out even being compared to guys like Milano we could do a lot worse.

I should retire from this off-season now on top lol it’ll be my one hit lol

Bobby’s deal