OhioColt

January 12

Chris Ballard has already made it clear that no one is safe, and no one has a guaranteed contract.

Kelly's always been hot one year and cold the next. Although he did play outstanding this season, I could see the Colts move him to NY Giants and reunite him with Glowinski. The Giants OL was horrible, and John Michael could learn a lot from Kelly. This would free up much needed cap space.

Kind of expecting the Giants like most mock draft boards to select an OL on Day 1. Trading Kelly to the Giants and moving back late in Round 1 and taking JPJ is one draft philosophy. Not sure what we could get as a trade deal possibly a 2nd and/or 4th round pick or even trade for someone like SS Jason Pinnock who would only cost us 1m in cap space this year given the uncertainty and am assuming we do not resign Blackmon. Again, no guarantee that JPJ would play lights out as a rookie much like how poorly John Michael played this past year for the Giants.

Doubt the Giants would trade us back Okereke...

January 11

11 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

a 1st and 2 3rd round picks for Braden Smith????

Check out OTC and trade calculations it appears to be based on current salary contract and offsetting rounds to value. The Lions still win but with around ~300k cap space differential.

January 10

I was looking at OTC and contemplating on draft day if RT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon St) was available at pick 15 we take him but make a call to the Lions and trade Braden Smith for their late first pick and both their thirds. Not saying Smith will decline like Leonard did but with the hip, wrist and left knee season injuries time might be to sell now. Smith figured would move inside to RG and improve an already solid Lions OL.

Also wonder how much the Colts will try to target college players who excelled in RPO offenses. Figure Nabers would be gone but Brian Thomas might fall to us. Brenden Rice (son of legendary Jerry Rice) in Round 3 is a possibility. Texas I do like Ja'Tavion Sanders at TE or Adonai Mitchell. Sanders am warming up to where he was already used to coming across formation to get matched up on a high safety on slide concepts where he became the best TE in program history. Have to do more research but SWR Roderic Burns (North Texas) was with another program that excelled in RPO and also adds bonus as a PR.

January 10

9 hours ago, Shive said:

In no world is this happening.

Even with the full TE room, Bowers would be hard to pass on if he fell.

Did you know that AR was projected to potentially move to TE due to his body build. Wasn't too farfetched of an idea and may still not be. Wouldn't be the first time a college QB moved to a different position. Jury is still out on what kind of QB he will be...

January 9

I can see us move AR to tight end and draft a QB. Seriously wouldn't mind drafting Brock Bowers if he falls. Pittman talking about due diligence might end up elsewhere next season. Suppose we could get Tee Higgens but Brian Thomas Jr (LSU) might be a draft target. Shall be interesting to see who falls to us on draft day for sure.

January 5

You want the fix. You can't handle the fix.

Own FA unsigned

DT Grover Stewart – replaced with Justin Madubuke as the Colts go younger

SS Julian Blackmon – Cross playing well earned starting role

DT Taven Bryan – Nichols has starting experience with the Bears and Raiders and slight improvement over Bryan who never lived up to R1 selection

P Rigoberto Sanchez – replaced with Tommy Townsend

WR Isaiah McKenzie – susp

OL Danny Pinter –

Edge Genard Avery

CB Darrell Baker Jr.

FS Henry Black

OC Jack Anderson

WR Juwann Winfree

CB Tony Brown - susp

Resigned

QB Gardner Minshew 7m

WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. 5-year 90m total, 40m guaranteed, 21m signing bonus – CBS projects 4-years 90.8m (22.7m APY)

Edge Tyquan Lewis 3m

RB Zack Moss 3m

NCB Kenny Moore 9m

FS Ronnie Harrison

LDE Jacob Martin

MLB Segun Olubi – ERFA tender

SLB Cameron McGrone – ERFA tender

FA Signing

LG/OC Trystan Colon (Cardinals)

IDL Justin Madubuke (Ravens) – CBS projects 4-years 81.2m (20.3m APY)

LDT Poona Ford (Bills) - Adebawore shocked how badly has played and Ford is an upgrade adding solid depth behind Buckner

RDT Bilal Nichols (Raiders) - Madubuke is the starter, but Nichols adds quality rotational starting abilities.

WLB-ST Joe Bachie (Bengals)

FS Geno Stone (Ravens) - CBS projects 4-years 40m 13m APY - Stone played well and should compete with Harrison for starting role

WR2 Tee Higgins (Bengals) - CBS projects 4-years 66.3m (16.5m APY) – immediate upgrade over Pierce while Pierce still adds value

P Tommy Townsend (Chiefs) – 4m/yr – insane not really Townsend expected to break the bank for Punters and command top dollar. An All-Pro in 2022 and ranks in the top 10 in the NFL. In 2021 finished second in net yards per punt and 1st in 2022. The Colts are already over-paying Sanchez more than Townsend is making now and nowhere near as great.

Draft

Round 1

LCB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) – add a shutdown corner

Round 2

OC/RG Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) – Kelly’s future replacement but also capable playing RG

Round 3

WR-X Tory Horton (Colorado State) PR to replace McKenzie but adds needed depth behind Pittman

Round 4

WR-SL Malik Washington (Virginia) – Downs is the future but add a very capable backup

Round 5

RB Ray Davis (Kentucky) - Solid college career earned college football midseason all-America Third Team. Adds insurance behind Taylor/Moss.

Round 6

LCB Willie Roberts (Louisiana Tech) - 2023 college football midseason all-America Second Team. With Brents and Jones locking down the right side both Mitchell and Roberts fill the voids on the left with Kenny Moore back doing what he does best at nickel.

Round 7

WR-X Hayden Hatten (Idaho) Solid college career. In 2022 had 1223 receiving yards, 17 contested catches with 39 explosive plays of 15+ yards earning an elite PFF grade of 91.9. Hatten has excellent catch strength and hand-eye coordination and can create separation. Could end up being this year's Puka Nacua.

Bottom lines the Colts add multiple offensive weapons for AR while adding JPJ to the OL. On defense the Colts add quality depth with Ford and Nichols on the DL while getting a young equivalent for Stewart in Madubuke still creating a dynamic tandem with Bucker. Adding a true shutdown corner with Mitchell will help our young DBs. Time will tell how Cross and Stone/Harrison will play out next season. Our edge players have had a decent season, and all have had their moments this season so didn't see an immediate need same goes for our linebackers. Still some good things have seen from McGrone, Stuard and Olubi. The team has done well with Minshew but again the added weapons of wide receivers should help AR. Might still be some questions at tight end but like what have seen from Mallory and at times with Granson. Woods has got to come back healthy but now some questions about Ogletree's future that hopefully will get resolved as he showed lots of promise.

December 15, 2023

13 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I dont disagree

Cooper Dejean "seems" like a Ballard sort of guy. "Cool-aid" is an amazing player as well. Dejean can play all over the defensive backfield. He may actually turn out to be a pro bowl Free Safety

I can see a value from stepping up the CB room, but would wonder if the true shut-down corner might be wasted in this defense. Many teams invest in top tier shut down CB, then they offer more blitzs.

We blitz very little.

A CB that is fast enough and can tackle is valuable to play zone and support the run to their side when needed

This defense stays in zone more than most teams. with zone, a play making free free safety position is so very important on this defense, and my hope is that we invest this year in round 2-4

If Jared Verse or Jer'han slid to us, it would be hard for me to pass on them as they both bring MUCH needed pressure.

The WR group is long and talented

If we go defense in round one, my hope is that we move up in round 2, to get a WR (Just like they did with JT)

Another FS I like is Trey Taylor (Air Force). After 9 weeks Taylor’s 88.5 coverage grade is second among Group of Five safeties while posting an impressive 78.8 run-defense grade. Taylor overall PFF grade of 85.8.

Tonight, just read where Taylor won Jim Thorpe Award which speaks volumes. Just not sure about the details around his draft availability and military clauses. Was thinking he would have to serve a minimum of two years before he could enter the NFL.

As for Kool-Aid did like he was the best PR in the Power 5 last season and high incompletion rate.

Before this season was very high on Kinchens at FS but think as this season progressed, he regressed, and I have downgraded him.

Calen Bullock would be another viable FS but biggest knock on him has been his tackling and run-defense.

Obviously very high on Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) as an option for the Colts.

If a team is looking for a SS than can't go wrong with either Tyler Nubin or Javon Bullard.

I do need to research Michigan's Rod Moore more but do like his low missed tackle rate and appears to be another strong candidate.

December 14, 2023

Take a look at every team and how many are playing backup QBs is astonishing. Could the Colts do better or worse than Minshew is the risk/reward. Minshew has been around Steichen for a few years and has proven a capable backup thrust into a starting role. I have no issues making Minshew a long-term clipboard hold and backup option going forward. Ehlinger is the odd man out and potential is the one to be looked at being replaced no Minshew. Realize it all boils down to cap availability and the future direction of the Club. Do we go younger releasing some of our better players and reboot now for a rebuild. Time will tell and left in the decisions with the Colts brass not us armchair GMs.

December 14, 2023

8 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

15 yard penalty!!

If there is a a cant miss player of need at 21, you have to take him. Some excellent folks on the DL or CB may slide to our slot)

If this happens.... we STILL desperately need the WR, which could be had early in round 2 (Maybe not late)

THATS what I meant by trading up

This is supposedly one of the deepest WR classes in awhile

One thing is clearly standing out is the lack of wide receivers' depth for the Colts. Outside of targeting Ray-Ray McCloud (49ers) or Braxton Berrios (Dolphins) I do think the Colts could very well invest heavily in the draft for wideout depth mid to late rounds. Tory Horton would be an ideal replacement for McKenzie, Malik Washington to replace Dulin potentially, and Hayden Hatten might very well be this year's Puka am predicting. Roman Wilson would also round out my list of draft targets as a WR-Z option with an * on TE/WR Oronde Gadsden II (Syracuse) who was decent as a run-blocker and better than most with a 117.8 QB rating when targeted.

Obviously would love to have Odunze or Nabers. Could make a case for Coleman, Legette, or even Brian Thomas but overall, I think we need a true starting LCB in Round 1 to play opposite of Brents.

December 14, 2023

On 12/5/2023 at 10:10 AM, Colts1324 said:

Pretty solid mock.

Like the depth signings.

2 things:

1.) I think Grover gets at least a 2 year deal. He’s 30 years old, but he’s very underrated. Prior to the suspension, I believe his projected

contract was 3 year/42 million.

2.) If Kelly retires, we will need to sign a solid vet center or draft one earlier in the 2nd or 3rd round. We can’t risk having a repeat of 2022.

Got to love what Grover has done for the Colts and part of me wants to see him retire but in the end the NFL is a business. Time to rebuild the organization and go younger with AR leading us into the future. Really hope the Colts can acquire Justin Madubuike from the Ravens who is equally a much younger version of Grover.

With the mid-season release of Leonard I hope we can get Luvu as his replacement and move Speed back to SLB.

I still continue to look over our team and continue to look toward our future and what might be the best course of action. As of right now we need a true defensive back to start opposite of Brents. Brown stinks and Baker is starting to improve. Jones is a solid backup with starter potential. I am leaning towards drafting Cooper DeJean as a FS with CB potential but feel he will be gone ahead of us. Think we look at Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) to be that man opposite of Brents.

Round 2 SCB Mike Sainristil (Michigan) Kenny's replacement. Sainristil may very well go late in Round 2 like Jartavius Martin did last year. Continuing with the youth rebuild and parting with Kenny Moore.

Round 3 WR-X Tory Horton (Colorado St) assuming McKenzie moves on and Horton takes over in the return game.

Round 4 SWR Malik Washington (Virginia). Dulin is on IR and will be a FA after 2024. Depth behind Downs

Round 5 FS Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) - strong season for Auburn and no guaranteed we resign Rodney

Round 6 WR-Z Hayden Hatten (Idaho) – this year’s Puka Nacua? Adds depth behind Pierce

Round 7 RDE Kaimon Rucker (UNC) - Rucker became first Tar Heel in 10-years to be named the Walker Camp Defensive Player of the Week.

December 5, 2023

7 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Remember though. Tyquan Lewis is a FA and the Colts have to decide if they’re going to use the 5th year option on Paye. So by 2025, Edge may be a need as Paye and Dayo are FA’s. It’s better to address it now when it’s not a need, than to wait till it’s a glaring need. Good teams prepare for the departure and of players by having the replacements in house 1-2 years early. Thats what the Eagles do.

Am hoping we resign Lewis to an extension. Compared to other FAs Lewis has proven to be capable at times and worthy of the extension along with his familiarity of our system.

In Round 1 if Bralen Trice (Washington) was still on the board I would take him as BPA.

Hoping in the draft we look at Ben Bell (Texas St), if he declares. His brother is Levi Bell (Seahawks). Do have to question his level of competition but Bell had a 39.7 pass-rush win rate which was nearly 10% points higher than the next closest edge defender. After 9 weeks, Bell was the most efficient pass-rusher in the nation, leading all FBS with a 31.5 pass-rush win rate while his 23% pressure rate was 3rd among all edge defenders.

The only other two edge players that stand out are Mohamed Kamara (Colorado St) and Gabriel Murphy (UCLA).

Defensive lineman Keenan Stewart (UTEP) showed up on my radar back in 2020 and hadn't seen his name mentioned in a long time until he made PFF 2023 TOW 12 honors. Stewart dominated JUCO. Can play 1T and 3% in the 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 nickel defense. In the last 6 games in 2020, Stewart produced a 92.7 PFF grade, ranking first in college football, and was anchored by a 94.4 run-defense grade.

DL Jacques Bristol (Central Michigan) is another player from the Group of Five having a solid year. Bristol was the only IDL with an 80+ pass-rushing and run-defending grades after the first five weeks in the Group of Five.

December 5, 2023

7 hours ago, Colt Overseas said:

It feels like if we picking in the 18-22 range of the draft, we should be either looking to trade up or back. I sort of feel like with the roster we have, we should be looking to trade up and start taking shots at elite talent. The roster has decent depth now, especially with a lot of younger players stepping up in positions like WR and CB. But it’s elite players we want to find now.

Need a WLB too, but I’d be looking for another Bobby Okereke type in the 3rd round, something like that. Ballard is good at drafting LBs infairness.

Hoping the Colts can acquire Frankie Luvu (Panthers) to play WLB in FA then move Speed back to SLB

December 5, 2023

On 12/3/2023 at 11:37 AM, holeymoley99 said:

Dont think Jones is going to go from his current CB 1 down to CB 5 with as well as he has been playing and developing unless he falls off a cliff rest of the season. Think we may have bigger plans for Ronnie Harrison after spending all season bulking him up and then cutting Leonard so he could see the field and when he does promptly gets a crucial pick but we shall see.

Appreciate the time put in for this post, a lot of good research.

Jones has been a surprise indeed for our Colts. Hopefully Jones can continue to finish the season strong. Kind of what I was alluding to earlier when drafting that DBs can be found late or even go UDFA that teams overlook. Jones was an intriguing player with high potential but for some reason dropped significantly in the draft. We got very luck indeed drafting Jones. Do I consider Jones a true #1 CB probably not but a very strong rotational backup corner indeed. Most of the DBs I listed are more slot corners not true outside corners.

On 11/30/2023 at 9:15 AM, Archer said:

Well done. I like it - good analysis. We’re all wondering about Kelly, but if he retires (or is leaning that way by the draft) then I think we need to draft an IOL early. I’m making the assumption that Kelly hangs on one more year, but I’m still drafting a 3rd round IOL, bc French has been pretty meh in relief…

I would like to see Kelly stick around another year as well. Then again, Kelly always seemed to a stud one year and more a dud the next. Not really sold on too many OL in the draft nor any available center in FA. Trystan Colon would be a great addition and would be interesting to see who wins the starting role if Kelly does retire. I am on the fence about Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) who in this draft class is probably the best center and we could very well target in Round 2.

November 30, 2023

Retired/Cut

Ryan Kelly – projected to retire due to concussions – 12.3m cap savings

Mo Alie-Cox – cut 5.9m savings

Potential restructured deals for Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner?

Own FA signed

SCB Kenny Moore – one of the best nickel corners–3 year 36m

WR Michael Pittman Jr – 5 year 85m along lines of Mike Evans deal – Pittman’s very good not great

DT Grover Stewart 1 year 10m

SS Julian Blackmon 3 year 22.5m

QB Gardner Minshew – Sam Darnold Panther type contract – 2 year 23m

Edge Jacob Martin 1.5m

Edge Tyquan Lewis 3m

RB Zack Moss – deal like Jamall Williams or Nyheim Hines – 3 year 14.25m

LG Arlington Hambright ERFA tender 915k

MLB Segun Olubi ERFA tender 915k

Own FA Unsigned

DT Taven Bryan

FS Ronnie Harrison

SAF Ronnie Harrison

WR Isaiah McKenzie

OL Danny Pinter

Edge Genard Avery

CB Darrell Baker Jr.

OL Jack Anderson

WR Juwann Winfree

CB Tony Brown

RB Trey Sermon

FS Trevor Denbow

SLB Cameron McGrone

P Rigoberto Sanchez

FA Signings

WR1-ST KR/PR Ray-Ray McCloud (49ers) 2.75m – been a dominate ST ace ranked #4 last season and an upgrade over McKenzie

WR3 Braxton Berrios (Dolphins) – backup that shown ability as a starter but bonus as a KR 4.25m 5.5m

LG/OC Trystan Colon (Cardinals) 1.9m

LT/LG/RT Chuma Edoga (Cowboys) 2.2m

LDE Clelin Ferrell (49ers) – 4.5m – like Ebukam Colts add another former 49er

WLB/MLB Frankie Luvu (Panthers) 8m - Year after year Luvu has proven himself and now that Leonard is gone can move Speed back to SLB

WLB/MLB Isaiah Simmons (NY Giants) – traded from Arizona to the Giants with no short-term deal – hit FA? 1 year 3.5m

LCB-ST Isaac Yiadom (Saints) 1.7m

FS Xavier McKinney (NY Giants) 8m - proven upgrade over Thomas

P Tommy Townsend (Chiefs) – 4m/yr – insane not really Townsend expected to break the bank for Punters and command top dollar. An All-Pro in 2022 and ranked in the top 10 in the NFL. In 2021 finished second in net yards per punt and 1st in 2022. The Colts are already over-paying Sanchez more than Townsend is making now and nowhere near as great.

NFL Draft

Round 1 LCB Cooper DeJean (Iowa) Poor play from our DBs this season and release of players makes this a major need for someone to start opposite of Brents. Capable as a PR but the addition of McCloud allows DeJean to focus on DB duties and reduce risk of injury as a returner.

Round 2 DL Brandon Dorlus (Oregon) – Buckner is a 2025 FA with a 20m cap savings if we cut/trade him in 2024 giving Dorlus a year and/or chance to learn from one of the best. Adetomiwa Adebawore had high hopes for but needs to have a comeback year or else gone.

Round 3 NT/DT Byron Murphy II (Texas) – 2023 midseason all-America team Third Team shown ability to disrupt backfield. Gave Grover a 1-year prove it deal after PEDs suspension. Still wish Stewart to finish career off as a Colt but Murphy replaces Taven Bryan and hopefully can become Stewart’s future replacement. Both Dorlus and Murphy have a strong proven history of hurries in college something the Colts seemed to lack.

Round 4 RB Jo’Quavious Marks (Miss. St) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Honorable Mention. Above average in both run and pass blocking. Released Trey Sermon and should push for RB3 ahead of Evan Hull.

Round 5 SCB-SWR Mike Sainristil (Michigan) – 75.1 pass-rushing grade when asked to blitz. Great in man and good in zone-coverage as well. Also capable of playing slot WR and still takes some offensive snaps with Michigan. Obviously, Kenny Moore is the man for the time being, but Sainristil can be the future replacement and offers some upside as a slot receiver.

Round 6 WR-SL Malik Washington (Virginia) – 6 weeks had an 86.2 PFF receiving grade. Shifty forced 15 missed tackles – replaces Juwann Winfree as backup to Josh Downs.

Round 7 NCB Daequan Hardy (PSU) – ST PR – Decent college career and as a bonus another return man.

Offensive outlook ’24 Roster:

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Moss, Marks, Hull

WR1: Pittman Jr., McCloud

WR2: Pierce, Dulin

WR3: Downs, Berrios, Washington

TE: Ogletree, Mallory, Granson, Woods

LT: Raimann, Freeland, Edoga

LG: Nelson, Colon, Hambright

OC: French, Colon

RG: Fries, Stills

RT: Smith, Freeland, Edoga, Witt

Defense outlook ’24 Roster:

Edge: Paye, Lewis, Ferrell, Martin

IDL: Buckner, Stewart, Dorlus, Adebawore, Murphy II, Johnson II

Edge: Ebukam, Odengibo, Leo, Land

WLB:, Luvu, Simmons

MLB:, Franklin, Simmons, Olubi

SLB: Speed, Stuard

CB: Moore, DeJean, Sainristil, Yiadom, Hardy

SS: Blackmon, Cross

FS: McKinney, Thomas II, Scott

CB: Brents, Flowers, Jones, Speed

P Tommy Townsend

Recap: not a year based on RAS which is TBD but build around college players on DL that proven to create pressure and hurries on pass plays. Also added multiple ST returners as upgrades over McKenzie. Looking back over the history of NFL draft seems clear that bigger risk drafting OL and missing on majority of the picks. Not even first rounders are a guaranteed studs if you will with the exception of Nelson and a few others. Both Edoga and Colon are proven backups that I have been keeping tabs on for past few years and again this year showing that have value to whomever they play for. The Colts clearly need backup wide receivers and both Berrios and McCloud are proven and excel as returners. Our DB is overhauled and much improved along with adding another LB standout in Luvu and Simmons offers upside as well. Plus we upgrade our Punter with Townsend. Now need Richardson back healthy and build chemistry again but having Minshew back already puts the Colts well ahead of other organizations in terms of proven backups that can start and win games.

November 22, 2023

Just saw the news. So does this mean the Colts can get a draft compensation pick going this route?

November 16, 2023

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

If the cap hit is the same, trade or release, other teams will force Colts' hand to avoid draft pick loss. I would, if I was an opposing GM and if I wanted a LB badly, I would hit the draft as a cheap option. No one will take on his contract, so a release is the only outcome if the Colts want to part ways. Leonard probably has to sign a 1 year "Show me" contract somewhere moving forward before he can get another big pay day IF the Colts release him at the end of the season.

Wishful thinking is one thing, but I do agree that is what majority of the Clubs hold out for is a team to release a known player rather than giving up draft picks. Back to basics is our new DC and system don't match up well with Leonard's role anymore even considering his injury/recovery playing time. Something obviously needs to happen for Leonard to succeed be it a new DC and system to match or another team that plays the same position more than what we do now.

12 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

Wish you were the Cardinals GM!

One can dream but can always hope a draftee is better than what they have now versus a proven Leonard as a known including all his baggage if you WILL. Now I did try to be fair on a trade compensation using old data from Khalil Mack trade and devalued it to a point. In all seriousness look at what the Cardinals have in draft picks (Drafttek trade value chart), the Cardinals are primed with multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks that would love to trade and acquire as I do see a lot of value in this year's draft class to add extra picks. Better than trading back in Round 1 imho as no team right now equates to much in terms of equal trade value for a 2nd round pick at the moment.

November 15, 2023

20 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

If Kelly goes out, he goes out on top. His PFF score is tops in the NFL.

As for his replacement, I'm still leaning towards Michigan center Drake Nugent in the 3rd round. Even if Kelly doesn't retire this year. Draft the guy and let him sit for a year.

UCLA Duke Clemens is another having a solid 2023. After 10 weeks, has an 79.4 PB grade and an 78.7 RB grade (3rd highest) among centers. Clemens has only allowed 1 sack in 347 PB snaps this season.

Miami’s Matt Lee is another possibility. In 2022 Lee had an 82.5 overall PFF grade with an 90.6 PB grade and an 80.6 RB grade. As of October 15th, Lee is the highest graded center with an 82.7 PFF grade.

November 15, 2023

On 11/13/2023 at 7:31 PM, w87r said:

Yeah, but it pushes the other $4m to 2025.

If we were to release him, this is most likely the scenario on Leonard.(designated June 1st cut)

I think we can probably trade him to the Bears though, if that is the direction we choose to take.

Cap relief is no different on a trade vs release.

Looked at the Bears and they actually have a very good WILL so am ruling out the Bears.

Detroit Lions. They drafted Jack Campbell and have high hopes for him to succeed at WILL but thought he was a true MLB in college. Not interested/true need nor do they offer upside in the way of draft picks.

My top trade team is the Arizona Cardinals. Seems they moved away from a 3-4 base and now use a 4-3 type base and their WILL is horrible. Leonard would be an immediate upgrade for them plus the team has availabile cap space. More importantly the draft capital for trade. Offer Leonard for this year’s second and one of their thirds.

November 14, 2023

2 hours ago, w87r said:

Probably 1 reason not to many people are saying FA, because they know he's not that active there

Ekubam was a nice pickup last off-season.

Out of you list:(DE, DT, WR, CB, S, LB, RB (should Moss leave) and QB)

My thoughts are

DE - Lewis and Avery are FA, probably bring both back to camp. Avery was looking good before he went down. Lewis is playing pretty good this year as well. Outside of that we have Ebukam, to go with Paye and Dayo on final years of deal. With Land still in development?

So not sure I see a big splash move there. Maybe a draft pick?

DT - mainly predicated on if we bring Grover back or not. If we do, it will be rotational player at best if we bring in FA. Still have Adebawore developing too. Could definitely see a small contract DT depth FA signing.

WR - Some interesting names out there, but I don't see us paying 2 WRs big money this off-season, having to maybe give Pittman big money. There is suitable replacements out there though if they choose to move on. Think more than likely draft picks makes sense here.

CB - Will have Brents, Jones, Flowers, Speed (skill TBD), returning. Hopefully we can retain Moore. Tough call here, not sure I see a big CB signing (unless Kenny walks, still maybe not), maybe an additional pick for depth?

S - Again will depend on locking Blackmon up.

We still have Thomas and Cross who are young as well as Denbow and Daniel Scott, draft pick from last year. Quality vets can usually be picked up at any time, so can't see a big FA splash here.

LB - we know Ballard can draft LBs, so could see it. Don't see them paying a LB much in FA, whether we keep Shaq or not.

RB - hopefully Moss can be retained, if not I'm pretty sure that will be a draft pick to come in, plus we have Hull coming back.

QB - definitely see a FA signing here if we let Minshew go.

My defensive FA list:

DT Bilal Nichols (Raiders)

DT Teair Tart (Titans)

DT Armon Watts (Steelers)

DT Kevin Strong (Cardinals)

LDE Bryce Huff (NY Jets)

LDE A.J. Epenesa (Bills)

LDE Clelin Ferrell (49ers)

RDE Malik Reed (Raiders)

WLB/MLB Frankie Luvu (Panthers) - Luvu been very high for years and would be a great replacement for Leonard if traded/cut

WLB/MLB Isaiah Simmons (NY Giants) – first round draft pick decent but now listed as BU.

WLB Anfernee Jennings (Patriots)

WLB/Edge Yetur Gross-Matos (Panthers) – IR

WLB-ST Joe Bachie (Bengals)

SLB Josh Uche (Patriots)

SLB-ST Cam Gill (TB Bucs)

MLB-ST Shaun Bradley (Eagles) IR

MLB-ST Krys Barnes (Cardinals) – hit/miss starter potential

LCB Rashad Fenton (Cardinals) IR

LCB-ST Isaac Yiadom (Saints) – having a career year listed as BU but showing promise as a starter

LCB Dane Jackson (Bills) – ST proven starter abilities playing well past 5-6 weeks - currently ranked 49/114 CB

RCB Greg Stroman (Bears)

RCB Bryce Hall (NY Jets)

RCB David Long Jr. (Panthers) – backup getting starting time with CJ Henderson out

SCB Tavierre Thomas (Texans) – native of Detroit tempted to move closer to home? Listed as a BU. Top 10/114 CBs as of 11/8

FS Jaylinn Hawkins (Chargers) bu with decent starting potential

FS Xavier McKinney (NY Giants) one of the better safeties 30th/87

SS/LCB Jeremy Chinn (Panthers) – team is loaded with DBs and Chinn is a local Indy kid

November 14, 2023

4 hours ago, w87r said:

A lot of players needs extensions, to be going out and spend big money on a Center.

Kelly might not even retire, so it's all food for thought.

Looking at FA Centers right now:

Conner McGovern 35/38 - $12.5m projected AAV

Conner Williams 6/38 - $13.5m projected AAV

Andre James 14/38 - $10.9m projected AAV

Aaron Brewer 11/38 - $5.2m projected AAV

Lloyd Cushenberry 12/38 - $6.9m projected AAV

I'm sure some won't make it to FA.

Williams probably has a good chance as the Dolphins have no money and others to sign.

Offensive lineman is one of the better options to acquire FA every time. No guarantees even first or second round picks do well in the NFL and majority of mid-late round draft picks washout. Exceptions to every rule but finding doable OL in FA is the better option imho.

Below are the top upcoming OL FA targets I put together last week:

LT Cornelius Lucas (Washington) – 33 yo solid backup career

LG Jon Feliciano (49ers) – 32 yo moved to a backup role this season

LG Kevin Dotson (Rams) – 27 yo with upside

LG Damien Lewis (Seahawks) – 27 yo -starter but not a LT option

OC Evan Brown (Seahawks) 28 yo

OC Connor McGovern (NY Jets) 31 yo having a down contract year 48.5 PFF grade after two stellar years prior.

LG/OC Trystan Colon (Cardinals) – listed as starter/backup C

OC Nick Harris (Browns)

RG Robert Hunt (Dolphins) – Quenton Nelson type contract 18M/APY - FYI Nelson way over paid

RT Olisameka Udoh (Vikings) – decent BU

RT Cameron Flemming (Broncos) – 32 yo

OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Chiefs) – 2.5m

LT/LG/RT Chuma Edoga (Cowboys) – was very high on last year

Most probably aren't starters nor what we would probably want to replace Kelly.

Hoping in the NFL draft if Kelly does retire than we look at OC Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon). Career year as he is the only FBS center who has earned 80+ grades in both PB/RB this season. His 88.4 PB grade leads all Power Five centers and has only surrendered just one pressure, no sacks, on 183 PB snaps. 2023 earned college football midseason all-America First Team. Other top center in the class so far is Sedrick Van Pran (Georgia) only has an overall PFF grade of 81.1.

November 10, 2023

In 2022 nickel became the new base defense. Defenses played nickel on 12,630 opponent pass attempts and dime only on 2,715 drop backs. With just 3,206 defensive drop backs against four defensive backs last season, base is no longer the preferred look. Three-safety looks also increased as teams move to three safeties and two cornerbacks making the slot defender more important than in year’s past.

It is not a big surprise to see Leonard's role decrease even from his injury recovery. This is his main beef playing one first downs but being sidelined on second and third downs. A lot has to do with our DC and game plan. If you look back Leonard was effective when we had a different DC and game plan. The Colts need a slot defender that has coverage skills but also blitz instincts of linebackers which is why Kenny Moore is so important to this team.

November 10, 2023

Would Brian Burns be available to go all N on in FA? if not Latu might be the best edge player in this draft class.

November 9, 2023

15 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

It’s hard to put a safety in mock drafts because we don’t know what Nick Cross will be. He’s listed as the backup SS but hardly plays because of how stubborn Bradley is. Idk if he’s a SS or a FS.

Other than Nubin, not really sure about the rest of the strong safeties in this draft class. Now FS is different as we have multiple choices to choose from. As for Cross I am still on the fence and have him pretty much like the rest of the Colts from opponent to the next where he will grade high one week and look like a bust the next. Blackmon moving from FS to SS and staying healthy this season has been a big bonus for us with him playing very well. Bottom line we have to keep Blackmon and probably would give a two-year extension and keep Cross as a high potential backup given Blackmon's injury history. Can Nick Cross play FS at a high level? A good question and wonder if he has been given a chance.

It's the FS class that intrigues me the most and an area where I think we really need an upgrade. Jaylinn Hawkins (Chargers) appears decent with starting potential and a slight upgrade over Rodney Thomas. Xavier McKinney (NY Giants) another option but the draft appeals more to me to find our future starting FS. Kinchens (Miami) is a possibility, but I think we look at CB or WR in Round 1. Calen Bullock and Cole Bishop are also potential draft targets. Trey Taylor (Air Force) is another strong candidate but with his military am going to assume like Andre Carter II he goes UDFA. Taylor after 9 weeks his 88.5 coverage grade is second among Group of Five safeties while posting an impressive 78.8 run-defense grade. Jaylin Simpson is the most appealing of all safeties with the production to match. Offers upside in both man and zone coverage plus the flexibility being used as a cornerback.

November 8, 2023

11 hours ago, Archer said:

Really coming around on Cooper DeJean - @chad72, you’re a visionary! I think our biggest Defensive problems before losing Grover were in the secondary. But the concerns were all over the unit - no one slot troubles me in 2024, but R. Thomas hasn’t made many plays at FS and our depth at outside CB when Flowers and JuJu are sidelined has killed the D. DeJean is high upside at any secondary position we put him. Smart move.

I also see LB as an increasing need. Leonard is getting better and better, but at almost $20 million against the cap, he’s destined to be cut. And, unpopular take, but Speed and Franklin haven’t been too great in the base D. We need a stud to replace Shaq and a depth boost (Stuard and McGrone). Olubi can stay…

Just got done going through available upcoming FAs targets some on the cheap but proven players mostly at backup positions.

Top 4 FA Targets:

RG Robert Hunt (Dolphins) - Say what we will about Fries but compared to Hunt Fries is a capable backup.
LDE Brian Burns (Panthers) - if we can afford both Hunt and Burns, I would be a very happy camper.
WLB/MLB Frankie Luvu (Panthers) - Luvu maybe it's the name but Frankie has proven year after year he can play football at a high level and been on my radar for a while now.
RCB Tavierre Thomas (Texans) – native of Detroit tempted to move closer to home? Top 10/114 CBs

Low-Cost backup/Starter potential:

LG Kevin Dotson (Rams)

LG/OC Trystan Colon (Cardinals)

OC Nick Harris (Browns)

RT Olisameka Udoh (Vikings)

OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Chiefs)

LT/LG/RT Chuma Edoga (Cowboys) - Was hoping to acquire Edoga last season and still proven value as a backup

DE Bryce Huff (NY Jets)

DE A.J. Epenesa (Bills)

DE Clelin Ferrell (49ers)

DE Malik Reed (Raiders)

WLB/MLB Isaiah Simmons (NY Giants) – first round draft pick decent but now listed as BU

WLB Anfernee Jennings (Patriots)

WLB/Edge Yetur Gross-Matos (Panthers) – IR

WLB-ST Joe Bachie (Bengals)

SLB Josh Uche (Patriots)

SLB-ST Cam Gill (TB Bucs)

MLB-ST Shaun Bradley (Eagles) IR

MLB-ST Krys Barnes (Cardinals) – hit/miss starter potential

LCB Dane Jackson (Bills) – 49/114 CB

LCB-ST Isaac Yiadom (Saints) – Showing promise as a starter

LCB Rashad Fenton (Cardinals) IR

RCB Greg Stroman (Bears)

RCB Bryce Hall (NY Jets)

RCB David Long Jr. (Panthers) – backup getting starting time with CJ Henderson out

FS Jaylinn Hawkins (Chargers) decent starting potential

FS Xavier McKinney (NY Giants) one of the better safeties 8m – 30th/87

SS/LCB Jeremy Chinn (Panthers) – Chinn is a local Indy kid and the Panthers have plenty of DBs

DRAFT:

R1) WR-X Rome Odunze (Washington) or WR-Z Malik Nabers (LSU)

R2) FS Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) - more of a CB than SAF past two seasons but this year currently has a 90.4 overall grade with a 91.3 coverage grade adding 4 INTs and allowing just 32 yards in coverage. Solid in man-to-man and elite as a zone defender.

R3) SCB-SWR Mike Sainristil (Michigan) – 75.1 pass-rushing grade when asked to blitz. Great in man and good in zone-coverage as well. Also capable of playing slot WR and still takes some offensive snaps with Michigan.

R4) QB Tyler Van * Miami (Fl) - 2023 after 4 weeks earning first round accolades. Has 13 big-time throws leads all Power Five QBs with an 85.3% adjusted completion rate (5th) with a 94.3 PFF grade. Struggling as of late it seems and seen his name dropping but still appears to be a need for the Colts.

R5) WR-X Tory Horton (Colorado State) PR – Isaiah McKenzie is a FA and McKenzie is Pittman’s BU-X. Seen Horton draft stock all over the place. He is a decent PR after 5 games with 7 PR for 121 yards which was 4th highest average 17.3. Horton also is one of the better run blockers as a receiver. 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Third Team.

R6) DT T’Vondre Sweat (Texas) - A big man on campus 6’4” 362 lbs. 2023 after 5 weeks earned a 90.2 PFF grade. After nine weeks, Sweat is only 1 of 2 IDL who possess a top-10 pass-rush and run-defending grade (overall 90.3 PFF grade). His 18.8% pass-rush win rate also 5th among all DTs while his 6 TFLS or no gain are T-2nd. 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Second Team. 2023 PFF TOW 9 honors. His 16.3% pass rush win rate is 6th in the nation while his 10 TFLS are tied for 3rd.

R7) RB Jo’Quavious Marks (Miss. St) – 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Honorable Mention. Averaging over 4+ YPC and over 50 RECs/year impressive. Best both run and pass blocking earning consistent grade 76% for all.

November 1, 2023

17 hours ago, chad72 said:

Falcons have the Jaguars 3rd round pick for Ridley.

I would say, move slightly back with the Falcons (from 9th to say 12th), get the Falcons' 3rd round pick, to get an additional Day 2 pick.

Then, draft:

Round 1: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (will be a better Pro than Odunze, IMO)

Round 2: T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State, another long press coverage corner candidate like Brents

Round 3: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia, outstanding slot route runner to add to Josh Downs, track background

Round 3 (Falcons pick): Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson, can play anywhere from 1-tech to 5-tech

What do you think?

Saw you post same draft idea in another thread. While I am high on Nabers I wonder what the thoughts on retaining Isaiah McKenzie and resigning him for next season. I can see the Colts letting McKenzie walk and going after both LCB Cooper Dejean and Tory Horton. Horton also an WR-X like McKenzie and a better returner than Dejean and we could use both positions filled. Although I do hope that Jaylon Johnson (Bears) does hit FA and the Colts can acquire him and would absolutely take Nabers in a heartbeat. Kenny Moore is having a bounce back season but will be 29 next season. At some point the Colts have to address his replacement to groom and adding CB depth is a must as we have seen. Imagine Round 3 or 4 look for SCB Mike Sainristil (Michigan) who is having a stellar college season. Sainristil already made 2023 PFF TOW 4 and 8 honors and received honorable mentioned for 2023 college football midseaon all-America team.

Unfortunately, I don't have much listed for either T.J. Tampa or Ladd McConkey. Ruke born in Nigeria didn't start playing football until his junior year of high school. View him more as a 3-4 weakside DE. Unless we change DC and switch bases which didn't work out too well based on our home turf prior I can't see us pursue Orhorhoro or NT Howard Cross III (ND). Teams like the Ravens, Broncos or Falcons seem to be better fits having similar built players in Michael Pierce, D.J. Jones, and Grady Jarrett, respectively.

On defense we clearly value our defensive lineman. A dark horse Round 1 pick could very well be DT Kris Jenkins (Michigan). Brandon Dorlus (Oregon) is another player to watch and who should be rising up NFL draft boards. T;Vondre Sweat (Texas) and Rylie Mills (ND) are also likely draft candidates for the Colts. Jacques Bristol (Central Michigan) still an intriguing prospect and at one time Keenan Stewart (UTEP) dominated JUCO back in 2020 but haven't heard much of him as of late.

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