DougDew

Interesting. I thought JT was a poor fit for SSs offense the day SS was hired. I questioned JTs role because SS has not had a premium down hill runner as the feature. Its early, but does Hull look a little like Ekelar? Hull was drafted by SS. Hmmmm. I think JT knows he's not a great fit, but injury kept him from being traded and made any discussions moot. Wait to be healed, then pursue strategy for getting paid and used in a O he can earn his money in. Sorry Homers, this turn of events is not surprising, and actually expected.

I don't doubt those stats at all. But AR/JT as a 1-2 power rushing team is going to face a stacked box. I think SS learns to spread out the D, call a one-read pass play, then AR gets his top 5 rushing yards by defeating the spy and running through a spread out defense. Ad-lib rushing, not designed rushing. JMO.

Ok, yes, an RPO, not just a steady planned diet of either running up the gut with JT or around the end with AR. Option to the belly, option to run it himself, or option to throw. I don't think the option to run himself is going to be selected as much as folks would like, per Irsay and through SS. I think ARs rushing yards will come via scramble, and he might be very good at converting a poorly chosen/executed passing option in an RPO into a first down or more...but that's not the same kind of running as the QB keeping the ball in an RPO. That's the kind of running Lamar and Kaep do, but not really Hurts so much who had other options besides running, IMO.

I think the running QB has success when the defense is spread out to a degree. He's quick enough to find the open space, and maybe juke the off balance crashing defender, but his main role is to still slide when confronted with several defenders. I don't see the Colts having much success in spreading out defenses if AR's main threat is running outside.....and having an "only" inside runner like JT at RB certainly won't help to spread out the defense.

I don't like the way BUF uses Allen. I think they do it because of poor coaching and foresight, just forcing him to make big plays either by running or passing, playing him to death so to speak. SS and the new breed of HC might see things differently, but I don't think Irsay is on board with using his pick 4 QB like Earl Campbell.

Also types above: Using AR and JT as sort of a two-man wishbone offense where AR runs outside and JT runs inside depending upon the QB read is not going to be a staple. JMO. If it turns out that way, then the Colts are simply trying to do what they can with AR because he can't do anything else. Like Kaep, Lamar, and to some degree Hurts, but unlike AR, who all have/had full rostered teams around them. But Hurts is a better all around player than the other two. And Fields failed to create a viable offense or a winning record...because the rest of the team around him that is needed for that kind of QB to be a success....sucked.

A QB who says he does not want to run the ball as much as he has. I think Philly is the mold for our offense and how we would use AR. Read option sometimes, but not as a staple the way Nick has been thinking, IMO. Using AR and JT as sort of a two-man wishbone offense where AR runs outside and JT runs inside depending upon the QB read is not going to be a staple. JMO.

I know you think the read-option is in play as a staple of the offense, but I don't think it works with a young team on the rebuild. Its what you do when you invest a 2nd or 3rd rounder like SF with Kaep, and it turns out he can have some usefulness. I doubt Irsay is going to want to expose his pick 4 investment/franchise guy with all that many designed QB runs. Even with BALs success at getting the most out of Lamar at pick 32, there is still some obvious limitations. And BAL was pretty much set in terms of defense and overall culture/identity when they plugged Lamar in. I just see AR at pick 4 being an over investment if the plan is to have him run the ball a lot around the corner.

Correcting what I typed. I said to wait on JT the moment SS was HIRED, because SS might not want a straight ahead running RB with a low agility RAS score...who is an average pass blocker..as his RB beyond this season.

Some of the homerism is obvious. We praise SS for being a QB whisperer and have great expectations for how AR will develop and be used because of the past history SS has displayed with Hurts and Herbert. Based upon that past history to then judge RBs, SS is going to want either a pass catcher at RB (Ekelar) or more of a scat back type of RB (Sanders). JT is neither of those kinds of RBs. Which is why Ballard has said to let the season play out and see how it works together, which is what I said about JT the day SS was drafted. JT might show that the only exceptional skill he has for the NFL is breaking occasional and unpredictable big plays from between the OTs. Lets hope he shows more this season. If he doesn't, SS probably wants a new RB.

An offense needs TD scoring threats, or FD chain moving threats. Those players require talent. Its not as easy to rely on the play caller to scheme up the right play at the right time for that Situational Talent to succeed. A player needs to make plays and can't rely on his OC to put him in the right spot all of the time. I respect JT for his rare speed, which can score a TD on any play. That makes him worth more than most RBs by a good margin. But his below average pass blocking really hinders the offense in other ways. A team can't have a guy back there that really is just only premium at running the ball. That's the dilemma with JTs value, IMO.

That is under the Ballard principal of having a core group of players as the center of the team. There are some unknowns about how SS views the need for a premium RB as a lynchpin of the O.

I tend to agree in that every player wants to get paid sooner rather than later, so it would not surprise me if he wanted a new contract right now. But I also think he would see his longevity/long term finances be dramatically reduced if he was locked in for three years to a team that started the 32nd ranked QB instead of a team that had Trevor Lawrence.

I think JT would be wise to see how well he fits into the Colts offense, and Ballard probably wants to see it too. I think JT is at his best as a straight-ish ahead runner where the box is backed off a bit because of the passing threat at QB. I don't think JT is going to benefit from a running QB, especially this coming season, unless AR can really connect with our WRs down the field. Now, JT will probably have a better year than last year. But that improved performance alone won't answer those questions, about long term fit, IMO. The dual threat QB has to actually be "dual", and has to have the passing part of it down pretty well, probably even needs to be a better passer than a runner. Otherwise he's just another runner and I don't see that helping an Alpha RB as well as another team with a passing QB.

If you're referring to the Derick Henry comment about "why not just do away with the RB", I think he was talking about a potential macro-trend in the NFL where the RB is less valuable for a number of reasons, one being the emergence of the running QB. The macro-trend of the NFL becoming a passing league hurt the value of the RB, now the QB will be taking some of the running play snaps. I don't think that defines what an individual team or RB can do or not do, but it does place headwinds on the value of the RB.

I'm not sure what the counter point is. That a Qb who will run the ball himself by design has no detrimental impact on the RBs running touches, or a point that it even helps the RB? Philly is one team with a running QB, BALT and BUF are two others. Didn't Sanders just sign for $6.5M/year?

Partially. If our dual threat Qb doesn't show signs this year of actually being a passing threat that can unstack the box, I think JT would probably want to sign elsewhere.

Yeah I can see that. With the running QB, make them more of a disposable player than before. Keep getting the athletic rookie to run hard and lead a one-read offense, then discard and repeat. Maybe the QB gets one new short contract but not two.

That's kind of an empty stat. It depends on how many running plays an offense wants to run in relation to passing plays, and then what is the percentage contribution by the RB. If the RBs percentage of total running plays goes down, his contribution is less than it was, even if total handoffs increase (which could be related to the success of the entire offense). We're talking contract and what his contribution is worth relative to another RB playing the same role.

With the drafting of Anthony Richardson, the Colts have backhandedly lowered JTs value to the team. How many running plays can an NFL team call? JT should play out the season and sign with JAX, where they have a QB that uses passing skills, which thereby requires another player to have the running skills.

Barkley, Jacobs, and Pollard are supposedly thinking about it. There is some sort of group forming to help stabilize the value of the position. Derick Henry was quoted as saying on social media.."well why not just get rid of the RB position all together" Hint for you DH, they are getting rid of the position, but not the skill. Your competitors are now playing QB...LOL....and they will get the portion of the salary cap allocated to RBs added to their compensation. DH, you'd make a great pusher in the Philly Sneak play though, LOL. The NFL one day might think about the wisdom of concentrating 66% of the offensive skill into one athlete under C for the cheap superhero promotional value that some fans like, rather than the wisdom of diversifying risk by spreading different skills out amongst different players.

Not sure who you are arguing with or what about. Me, Nick, and the Exec are talking about JTs ability to create on his own. Now you're talking about top 10 voting, and before that you were talking about stats. My full opinion of JT: He's got elite break away home run speed. Above average power (he breaks arm tackles easily but is not really a pile mover). Average to below average elusiveness (juke's defenders in a phone booth creating arm tackle attempts, but does not have lateral explosion to change direction quickly). Probably still has Average to below average vision (although the lack of running to the open spot might be due to inability to change direction abruptly). Average pass catcher (needs more attempts though) Below average Pass Blocker. JMO, but I do not think he is the complete RB like Barkley, Jacobs, and maybe Pollard are. But he can score more long TDs then they can, which is a special thing for a RB. And he seems like a sincerely good guy.

It wouldn't be very bright to sign JT to a long term deal before we see how he fares in SS's offense. There needs to be at least one season to see if he can succeed, and then judge his value. Ballard would sort of be negotiating from an uninformed position if he does something now.

The RBs who can create more on their own have what's called "lateral explosion". Plant the outside foot and get about a 90 degrees change of direction with one foot plant without losing much quickness or balance. JT sort of pitter patters and jump cuts to go sideways while not really changing direction very abruptly.

It's an article about one exec's view. Not a survey of 31 teams. There could be a lot of execs with that same opinion. Which is an opinion @Nickster and I have had for at least two seasons.