DougDew

He was hurt months ago, and his value diminished. If he doesn't play or contribute what they expect. I assume they will want the roster spot for another RB that they won't have to put on the inactive list every game day.

He hasn't demonstrated the ability to catch or block on every play where he is not running it. He has to actually have done it in order to get paid. Nobody is going to pay a RB on spec,

But I think the record is simply the fact that JT said he hurt his back. Now JT could simply say that his back is fine, but his Colts-supervised ankle is what's holding him back. Unless the doctors corroborated JTs back pain with MRIs and such, I think its just a matter of what JT says.

That too. I've been talking about scheme fit and long term money. Not to mention that most pro-bowl quality RBs would think twice about playing on a team with a rookie QB and a bad/uncertain oline. That combo alone might make a lot of JT quality RBs not show up.

But the RB contributed in other ways when not rushing. And that guy now makes only $6.5M/year.

This is what I see. Ballard and Irsay were going to string JT along paying him is $4.5M to "see how he does" this year. Despite what Irsay says, the Colts were highly likely to just let JT walk next spring. JT is a smart guy and knows this. So he is calling them out using a variety of strategies, so to speak, and wants to go to a team that will secure his services for beyond this season. In the end, I think JT is not here, because Ballard, SS, and Irsay don't really want him here long term anyway....under any price....they want the roster spot for RBs more suited to SS. Despite what they might say to the public.

He won't help us much if he can't pass block better or catch a variety of passes like Hull might be able to, during the plays he isn't called upon to run between the OTs. Frank's O isn't here anymore.

Folks on this board simply overvalue JT. Just like they did Marlon Mack after Mack had a decent season. Ballard drafted JT in the last year of Mack's contract. One straight ahead runner to replace the existing straight ahead runner in Franks' system. That's a seemless transition. Now he's drafted a pass catching RB in the final year of JTs contract, IMO, signifying a change of role for the RBs When Ballard and Irsay say...lets see how it goes.....they know damm well that there is probably a 50/50 chance that JT sucks in SSs system. JT knows this too, and knows that Ballard knows it, and doesn't want to take the risk that the rest of the NFL will know it too after the season, so he wants to be traded now instead of waiting to the end of the season to find a new team, on the heels of playing in a system that he is not suited for. Its best for him to find that new team now, regardless of the money. Its why he keeps raising his price for the Colts. He doesn't want to play in this system. You, me, and him all know why he doesn't want to. I mean, I can't predict. He might cave and report and play hard. I would simply be surprised if he has a great season.

If JT has a bad attitude and mails it in, do you think any HC would keep him as the 1st stringer? Its happened before where the most talented guy is sitting on the bench because of a combination of reasons.

He'll show up. How much he is ready to play is another story. I think by mid season they decide to stop paying the unreliable third stringer $4.5M.

I'd kinda be surprised if JT plays. I think he'll find a way not to. Then maybe cut mid-season. I think the crux of this is that JT does NOT want to show the NFL how much he is NOT CMC or Kamara. He'll have a better shot with a new team next season by lying low and selling what he did in the past, rather than playing in a 2023 season that shows him being outplayed in a modern Philly SB-type offense by a rookie 5th round pick from Northwestern. He's not just standing on the sidelines. He's watching the offense and the other RBs. And has dug his heels in further each day as to indicate he no longer wants to play for the Colts. It might be just posturing. Or it might be that he sees himself as not a great fit. And this saga started after SS was hired and Hull was drafted.

I interpreted the tweet of the Colts being between a rock and a hard place as saying that JT has very little trade value given the circumstances. I agree. The Colts won't get much for him, and JT is no longer motivated to play for the Colts.

As far as how the roster designations and payments are concerned, yes. The NLI? is off the table. So JT will get paid for showing up in the manner he wants to show up, whatever that ends up being.

Its looking like if he plays for the Colts, its going to be for simply accruing his needed time. No, I would not hold a roster spot for a player who shows up only for that reason. If he doesn't report and play, what team would trade meaningful capital for a RB who is not going to play under his current contract or shows up to simply accrue time.? Like I said before, the only teams that I could see that would want JT are teams that are looking to rent his skills for one season. If JT could be sold that he will be the feature RB for a team like BUF or NYJ that could use one for a playoff run, it might change his attitude to where he shows up to actually play hard and not just to accrue time. There are about 4 or 5 teams that fit that mold? If no trade can be worked out with those teams, I'm assuming no trade is possible, and then the Colts are back to my first sentence.

They are correct, as are you. This entire situation is due to JT being a limited RB, not a fully-skilled RB in the ways a RB needs to be in today's NFL. Like that one tweet suggested, JT is looking to get traded to 1997. The reason he did not have a great 2022 is precisely because he is limited. The NFL knows this. His success....the crux of his perception of value....came from having a 2021 season where he busted off a bunch of big runs for TDs midseason that no other RB in the NFL could have done. That's a great skill to have. But that's not what CMC and Kamara get paid to do. JT is a bit of an outlier, and there are few market comparables by which to set his value. In cases like this in business, the buyer sets the market, so JTs value is truely going to be based upon which team wants to pay him money for what he has demonstrated he can do. There is no real established market for a really fast downhill RB. There is no "Kellys Blue Book" for an agent to use as support. Sure, maybe he has the skills to be Kamara. It hasn't been fully demonstrated yet, so he should get paid based upon the desire of a team to run him up the gut in hopes he breaks a long run. You pay him elite money for what he shows he can do. if any team wants that skill as the centerpiece of their running game. And you don't pay elite money on spec.

I'd probably just cut JT and save the $4.5M. He's probably going to be a JAG in SSs system anyway.

But the Colts can't just make something up like he sustained a personal injury to not pay him. That would be fraud. JT has to have actually had the injury that was corroborated by him and doctors, I would think. Edit: Okay. I see that he reported to TC complaining of back pain. So the Colts are now calling him out on it.

Yes, no takers for JT makes it easier for Irsay to say "we're not trading him". However, a team like BUF or NYJ could see his remaining $4.3M base salary for this one year as a cheap way to get explosiveness in the backfield for a playoff/SB run. For a 3rd in 2024 and 3rd in 2025? That would seem like easy draft picks to give up for teams that have a pretty loaded roster already. Would JT play for a new team, without a new contract? At this point is the sticking point playing for the Colts, or not having a new contract. I didn't read where he demanded a trade AND a new contract from the new team, but that might be implied.

I think he will have a better year somewhere else. It will lead to a better contract for him, IMO. It doesn't sound like the Colts are interested in doing anything with his contract., so an injury during this season either with the Colts or another team is going to impact his next contract just the same.

I haven't thought it though enough to know what the Jets want from their RBs, so you may be right about that. My 30,000 foot point was that JT would kind of languish on a rebuilding team. He would be viewed as the only weapon on offense and would get keyed on. I don't think he's interested in getting stuffed as a plan to take the heat off of a developing AR. His quick strike ability is perfect for a playoff-wannabee team that already has multiple threats. Whether he is a good scheme fit for any of those teams, I don't know.

I think JT has value to a team like the Jets or BUF, who could use his big play threat as a counter to defenses focusing on Rodgers passing or Allen's big play ability. Even in this best scenario for JT, I would not call that as him leading the team to a SB. It would still clearly be led by AR and JA. The question is how much they would pay for him. If they have an All-In attitude, they could conceivably mortgage the future and pay him reasonably close to what he wants. $36M for 3 yrs, half guaranteed? 3 yrs might sunset Rodgers window. I don't think JT plays in the NFL anywhere if he wants $16 million per year.

This is 100% correct. JT is a big play threat. He would fit right in to a contending team. He would be that extra offensive threat that would make an existing well rounded offense that much more threatening for defenses to game plan for. And burn defenses if they are too busy accounting for other offensive elements. RBs are short lived, and the NFL market should force the good ones to go to contending teams to maximize their value in the short time they have it. In addition to being a poor fit for SS, JT should not be on a rebuilding team.

This has been a huge DUH. If you analyze SS based upon what he did in Philly, I don't see SS wanting the offensive side's salary cap paying a star RB. Even Philly/Rosman/Sirani let Sanders sign elsewhere...right after they had enough success with him to go to the SB.

Except Irsay will claim, at some point, that AR is indispensable. All saviors are treated that way. You can see where this is heading. There can only be one superstar handling the ball. Pick one and weed the others out, rotating them in and out on their single contracts as needed. It makes more sense to have that guy be the QB. Instead of having that guy be the RB and rotating QBs in and out every year like we've done.

Or at least a distraction for Mo. Maybe Colts move both JT and Mo? Its easy for me to say that since I would have done that back in March, LOL.