Mitch Connors
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Posts posted by Mitch Connors
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13 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:
I want to win this game. But all I really ask for is it is a close game and isn’t a blowout. The worst feeling in the world is being hyped for a game and it’s over before the second half.
Thats one of the lesser discussed traits of Andrew since his injury - there is no such thing as a game out of reach when hes at QB. Ask Chiefs fans how they felt when they were up 38-10.
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On 1/1/2019 at 2:56 PM, Smoke317 said:
Start out in the hurry up with a nice up pace tempo. Take some of the starch out of that defensive front and get out in front. By the 2nd half, their line will be winded and then we put the run game on em and break their spirit.
I love the idea of starting in a hurry up. I get the reason not to run this all time because if you arent converting you're killing your defense but theres nothing to lose right out of the gate and if you score it immediately puts pressure on their offense. Hit them fast right away and if you dont convert slow it down the next possession.
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2 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:
Granted, no team will probably ever do what the '74 Steelers did (4 HoFers in one draft), but that teams' accomplishments can't really be compared to current teams because of the salary cap (and steroids).
If Nelson and Leonard keep this up and end up in the HoF, and half the other picks are contributors on a Colts team that wins a few Super Bowls and becomes a dynasty...
The '18 Colts draft would at least be in the discussion for 2nd best draft ever. Maybe the best of the salary cap era.
I agree. I watched an NFL flims episode on the best drafts ever and the Ravens drafting Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis in the same class was very highly regarded. One is an HOFer and the other will certainly be this year or next and thats considered one of the best team drafts ever. They may have had a few other quality players drafted but I cant remember them being mentioned and I didn't look it up.
We should all be thrilled to even think thats a possiblity with Nelson and Leonard - although very early.
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4 minutes ago, gspdx said:
I do believe in the leadership/culture that is being developed. I also believe some people don't change and will continue to be a distraction.
So are you willing to trade a high draft pick and absorb the salary of a guy that might just as easily not succeed in this culture? Maybe he works out, maybe he doesn't.
I wouldn't take that risk. Would rather find an FA or get a guy in the draft. That way we don't lose the draft pick and we don't absorb that salary of a question mark guy.
We agree on Brown. Im not saying Id take the risk either mostly due to the salary, I was just pointing out that bad seeds can change and its happened recently with players at the same position.
If I was in charge I wouldn't make a deal for Brown but I would never rule a player out for bad attitude issues either (barring a Ray Rice or Greg Hardy situation).
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Not saying the Colts should consider Brown but attitudes can change with a new situation.
Take Randy Moss and the Patriots. Moss was a major problem on and off the field but that ended when he hit NE. Desaun Jackson with the Bucs is another one off the top of my head.
If the locker room and leadership (ie: Luck, Ballard, Reich) are as great as most seem to think they are dont they have the ability to turn a player like Brown around? The Pats did it with Moss right? Do you believe in the leadership/culture or not?
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Wow. Those numbers really paint the picture of how amazing Luck is this year.
Our receivers drop the ball or their bodies the second the football hits their hands.
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21 hours ago, Superman said:
They own the market for player analytics because they're the only one doing it. My main push back is against people who don't do it acting like PFF is entirely incapable of doing it because they disagree with a handful of their grades.
Nothing drives improvement and innovation in business like competition. Nobody has a frame of reference to truly gauge their conclusions and results because there's nothing to compare it to - yet. If there's value in their product others will invade the market with improved/different approaches. If there's no value in the product they wont last (don't see this happening personally).
Currently PFF is clearly the best there is at what they do. Honestly, if you dont like their methods and see a better way, strike now the iron is hot (not directed at you Superman).
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1 hour ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:
Odell is the highest paid WR of all-time, whether he suits up Sunday or not. Having said that, he does have some incentives built in to his contract, but he's not hitting any of these milestones on Sunday:
96 receptions ($500,000)
1,374 yards ($500,000)
12 TDs ($500,000)
$1M bonus for playoffsIm curious if his TD passes count towards that incentive because hes thrown 2 tds this year.
At one point (it may still be true) the two longest completed passes in 2018 by a giants "QB" were both from OBJ at ~50 yards.
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15 hours ago, krunk said:
Ballard has his own system for identifying blue chip traits. Turay is a good example. Where we will pick I'm sure there could be another Turay there. A guy most of us didn't think about and when Ballard pulls the trigger we will all be mad because we thought somebody else the "experts" had ranked higher should have been the pick.
Im not ashamed to admit that I was very disappointed when we drafted Leonard and a top flight CB was still on the board...but I learned 2 things.
1. I know nothing about football
2. Ballard & Co clearly knows what theyre doing
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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
I don’t mean to be argumentative....
But I don’t know that we held Zeke Elliott to anything. 18 carries and 87 yards is nearly 5 yards per carry. If the Cowboys had given him three more carries Elliott would’ve had more than 100 yards.
Yes, a fantastic effort from our defense but I think Dallas helped by not using Zeke more often.
I want to understand your position so help me...
You're saying the Cowboys stopped using Zeke because they just decided to stop using him or because using him wasn't working? You are aware that the Cowboys use Zeke more than any other team uses their RBs (30 more carries than Gurley at #2)?
Your position is, a team that uses their RB more than any other team in the league decided that even though Zeke was effective (per your post) and would continue to be effective they just decided....to...stop....running...him?
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Just now, shastamasta said:
This site has Zeke at 29.9% against 8+ man boxes: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ezekiel-elliott/#!#current-year. That's ~30% of 268 carries...which is 71 carries. Zeke is incredibly consistent across different looks.
Great insight and back and forth today.
Zeke is for sure a stud. Hopefully the Colts can slow him down (no easy task for sure) and make Dak win the game.
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7 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
Ezekiel Elliott is a better RB than Lamar Miller...top 3 in the NFL. That is not up for debate. And Miller's YPC is buoyed by three monster games...Zeke is much more consistent.
Yes, their YPC are .1 apart...but Miller isn't the short yardage RB...that's Alfred Blue...and his YPC is 2.8. Give Miller most of Blue's carries...and I bet his YPC goes down. Not to mention teams have to respect Hopkins and Watson and can't stack the box.
Meanwhile, Elliott gets basically every carry...and has faced many stacked boxes due to the lack of weapons on offense. And still has a 4.7 YPC.
PFR's EXP does a good job at looking beyond the box score and calculating effectiveness...and it has DAL at #5 and HOU at #18.
We can agree to disagree on the Cowboys as a team debate but I will add one last stat in regards to your comment;
8 man fronts faced:
Zeke sees them on 26.12 %
Lamar Miller sees them on 23.16%.
I do think that speaks to Zeke's effectiveness as well. Zeke is certainly legit.
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Here are the offensive rankings of the teams Dallas has beaten:
11, 17, 9, 25, 12, 30, 27, 28, 21, 15, 28, 2, 21
BTW; 2 of those top 11 teams were Cowboy loses (Carolina and Seattle) and that #12 ranked offense - the Texans also a Dallas loss.
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6 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
I don't really see that. Everybody knew ATL had a great running game...and how effective Freeman and Coleman were. ATL was the top offense in the NFL that year...by far...and those guys were a huge part of that. As for metrics, they had the #5 run game according to YDS and YPC...and #3 according to EXP.
HOU does have the 2nd most yards rushing...but that's largely because they have the second-most attempts and because they have a very effective running QB. If you look at YPC and EXP...they are middle of the pack.
If YPC are so important, who has a higher YPC - Zeke or Miller?
Also Watson has 410 yards rushing where Prescott has 303.
Its not the QBs, its not they yards per game, its not the yards per carry between the "feature back". Why is Dallas better on the groud?
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31 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
By what metric is HOU's run game more effective than DAL? DAL has a higher YPC and a higher EXP...and they have Ezekiel Elliot.
Thier passing game has been much better with Cooper on board. I doubt they are #25 since he showed up.
They have faced far better offenses than the Colts. According to EXP, they have faced 4 of the top 10 offenses...and have one more on their schedule...as well as IND.
If anything, DAL was underrated. Not really anymore.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing
Houston gets more yards on the ground per game but most don't know that because Dallas has Zeke and he gets 89% of the yards (minus QB yards) where Miller gets 66% of the Texans yards. Texans uses more backs than just Miller where Dallas uses Zeke almost exclusively. The #2 back on the Texans has 467 yards, the #2 on Dallas has 85.
This is the exact situation in Atlanta the past few years with Coleman and Freeman. They split carries so nobody knows how effective they each are just like the Texans.
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1 hour ago, jskinnz said:
I think you are correctly in the minority for good reason. I think this is the best team to come into Indy all season, including Houston.
BTW - the * you assign to their win over the Saints is not good. The Saints played on Thanksgiving night too so both teams came into that game off a regular work week.
That's a fair point and I forgot the timing of that game- thanks for the call out.
I think most of my doubt comes from the medias love for all things Cowboys, which has historically been overblown. I suppose Ill believe it when I see it.
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Clearly I'm in the minority but I think Dallas is the most overrated team in the league. They beat 1 good team in the Saints and that comes with an * because it was a home Thursday night game.
Their defense has faced two teams in the top 10 on offense (Saints on Thursday) and the Panthers.
Their passing offense is #25 in the league and that includes Cooper. Their passing game is worse than the Texans.
Their run game is very good but its actually less effective than the Texans run offense and that includes QB yards because Watson and Prescott have very similar running stats.
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2 hours ago, aaron11 said:
mack is always on the injury report. hines isnt an every down back and his ypc isnt even good
its not play calling, they cant handle it
Im genuinely not trying to come at you so I hope you don’t take it that way but we’re so far apart on this one.
mack has had 4 games where’s he’s been given 15 carries or more:
15 carries / 85 yards / 5.7 avg
16 carries / 61 yards / 3.8 avg
25 carries / 132 yards / 5.3 avg
19 carries / 126 yards / 6.6 avg
Give him the ball and he produces on average per carry, he produces on volume carries and he produces on tape.
Injuries are are a concern I’ll give you that.
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54 minutes ago, richard pallo said:
You would never trade Mack for Gurley because he wouldn't be worth the cost? Seriously. I guess you wouldn't trade Sheard for Lawrence because we would have to pay him too. Of course the problem with Mack is we don't give him enough touches. Sorry, I just can't stop shaking my head.
Here is the annual cap hit per player over the next 3 seasons. Remember that salary you're spending goes beyond the 120 million next year. You believe that massive money outlay is spent the most effective on that position with those players given all the data available?
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26 minutes ago, aaron11 said:
i think thats nuts tbh. its not like this cap space is our own money as fans. we actually have to spend it by 2020 anyway. take a look at our own roster and you will see that we have no one important to pay before then.
ypc is becoming an overrated stat too. mack isnt good at carrying a heavy work load week after week and gurley is. mack also doesnt make many people miss or break many tackles. hes not good in short yardage either
hell gurley is an mvp candidate, mack wont even sniff a pro bowl
YPC is overrated? Whats the measure to use then? Opportunity is the most important stat and Gurley has twice as much with the Rams as Mack does with the Colts.
You also think the Colts will get Bell (or Gurley in this hypothetical) and completely change their offensive approach because of it? The Colts rush the ball 24 times per game (#22 in the NFL) while the Rams rush the ball 29 (#7). What measure are you using other than YPC (which is a stat of attempts/yards) to show that would happen?
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2 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
Mack is a decent back....I am glad we have him........ Not Bad, Not great..... You arent really putting him in the same class as Gurley? ..........Right?
Im not suggesting Mack on the Colts is as good as Gurley on the Rams and Id never trade Mack for Gurley - not one time. The difference in production for Gurley on this team wouldnt be worth the cost we'd have to pay for Gurley vs what Mack delivers at his current pay.
If the Colts gave Mack as many touches as Gurley and the results were the same (even though Mack would almost certainly get more yards as more touches almost always equals a higher average) it would be;
Todd Gurley - 233 carrries, 1175 yards, 15 tds
Marlon Mack - 233 carries, 1161 yards, 8 tds
Its not the stats that seperatre the players its the perception. And im saying Id like someone to show me what Im missing becasue I dont see the issues with Mack I read on here all the time.
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12 hours ago, aaron11 said:
mack isnt bad, but hes not a power back at all. hes a finesse guy, if he gets hit he usually goes down quick.
For reference:
Mack is tied for 10th on average yards per rush at 5 (tied with Todd Gurley FYI).
Only 3 of those top 10 RBs face a larger % of 8 man fronts than Mack at 22% (Gurley at 8%).
Mack has broken 11 tackles on 129 carries or 9% of his carries. (Gurley 17%)
Looking at that I can conclude that Mack breaks half as many tackles as Todd Gurley but he averages the same yards per touch even though he faces 8 man fronts 3x as often as Gurley. So tell me again how Mack is so bad?
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I watched every carry Mack had Sunday again and with the exception of 1 play in the third quarter he was much better than nearly everyone is giving him credit for. Id love someone to post screenshots or video that show he missed openings, made bad cuts, or was too slow to the hole - they're not there. Unless you believe he should be cutting all of these runs back theres nothing more he can do.
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Same formation and same play from the first Jags game with a different result. The Red Zone didnt/couldnt allow the Colts to play so far off the ball which left the defenders much closer to the tackle for a 5 yard gain. These are not check downs due to coverage, these are designed plays that we've shown we cannot reliably defend.
Would you trade for Antonio Brown?
in Colts Football
Posted
Hes #6 in yards per game though. The problem with Mack isnt talent, its being availalbe. Look at the carries, yds per carry, TDs, and yards per game by the guys around him.
Mack is WAY closer to elite than anyone seems to give him credit for.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/sort/rushingYardsPerGame