MKDK
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So I'm playing in a 16 team IDP FF League with keepers (9 keepers), entering year 2 (won year 1!) and got the following (starters listed with numbers):
QB: Russell Wilson (QB1), Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Stevan Ridley (FLEX), Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory
WR: TY Hilton (WR1), Kenbrell Thompkins (WR2), Cordarrelle Patterson, Jason Avant
TE: Jimmy Graham (TE1), Julius Thomas
As you might notice, I'm thin at WR. If Hilton was a full time starter, I might actually be comfortable with Hilton and Thompkins even though the latter is still a questionmark.
I'm looking to acquire a WR and got Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas targeted. Tried acquiring Dez Bryant, but didn't work out. I'm not moving Adrian Peterson or Doug Martin. The other RBs can be part of a deal.
The guy owning Demaryius Thomas has an interest in Julius Thomas (and had prior to the season opener vs Raves). He also has a serious need for RB. I'm thinking of offering Lamar Miller+Julius Thomas, and see what happens.
Q1: Would you trade Stevan Ridley (as the player you own) for Demaryius Thomas straight up?
Q2: If rebuffed, would you trade Stevan Ridley+Julius Thomas for Demariyus Thomas?
The guy owning Julio Jones also need a RB (though he has McFadden and Ingram). However he's pretty stacked at WR with Jones, Torrey Smith, Shorts, Decker, Harvin and Wheaton.
Q3: Would you trade Stevan Ridley for Julio Jones?
Q4: How about Stevan Ridley+Julius Thomas for Julio Jones+Dwayne Allen?
Answers on the Qs would be much appreciated
GO COLTS!
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I'd take Wilson as a stop-gap solution. He's not young, but we're not going to fill every position need with young, high prized free agents or 1st round draft picks.
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Early in the 2012 season, when I learned that Kruger was a free agent in 2013, I said to one of my mates that Kruger was an interesting player. That was before all the buzz surrounding Kruger after his good post season. My opinion on Kruger has not changed, but for 10+ a year... No way!
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Whoa! Even though I figured this could be coming with the Chiefs franchise tagging Branden Albert after trading for Alex Smith and having the 1st overall pick in this draft, I didn't think the Chiefs would cut such a good and relatively cheap player (cheap vs. quality).
If the Colts can get him for anything like the 4 year 22M deal he signed with KC, then GO!
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I'd prefer Banks or Rhodes in the first, and Porter in the third. I really want Tavarres King.
I got more questionmarks with both Banks and Rhodes than with Trufant. Also, there's a good chance at least one of them will be gone before #24 - probably Rhodes, it seems Banks' stock has fallen a bit lately. I wouldn't be opposed to taking any of the three though.
With the depth that will be available in free agency and the draft, i really do not see Winston Justice returning as the starting RT.
Most of the free agent OTs has been playing LTs, and done that succesfully. They are going to want to get paid like LTs.
Xavier Nixon or Brennan Williams should push Justice for that RT spot. This OT draft class is loaded.
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These resigning, free agency and draft scenarios are popular, and with reason. They are fun to think about and make, even though eventually they'll mean nothing. Nevertheless, here's what I'd love to see the Colts doing i 2013 rosterwise. Trying to keep this realistic:
Resignings:
P Pat McAfee - No brainer. Something like 5 years, $10 million.
CB Darius Butler - Our future nickel (after FA/draft).
DL Fili Moala - If not a starter, at least good depth. Shouldn't be met by a huge market, so should come cheap.
OT Winston Justice - Shouldn't be too expensive either. We can't get stuck with Linkenbach (or similar as Link is FA) as the primary back up again.
OG Joe Reitz - Restricted free agent. Don't know what his tender will be, probably not much. Good depth.
Possible resignings:
LB Moise Fokou - If price is right, he's decent depth and decent 3rd down LB. Won't be a hot commodity in FA.
QB Drew Stanton - Might follow BA to ARI? If not, why not keep Luck's clipboard holder?
WR Donnie Avery - Questionable hands, but we probably won't draft a receiver high until 2014. Keep what we got?
Let walk/don't resign: Jerraud Powers, Antonio Johnson, Jeff Linkenbach, Mewelde Moore, Cassius Vaughn
Free Agency:
OG Louis Vasquez - 5 years, $30 million
DL Randy Starks - 4 years, $20 million (Desmond Bryant is a REAL good alternative!)
OG Geoff Schwartz - 1 year, $2 million
SS William Moore - 5 years, $33,5 million
Draft:
1st round: CB Desmond Trufant
3rd round: OLB Brandon Jenkings / OLB Corey Lemonier
4th round: OT Xavier Nixon / OT Brennan Williams
5th round Compensatory: CB Tharold Simon
6th round: WR Tavarres King / WR Josh Boyce
7th round: BPA ;-)
Roster:
QB: Luck, Stanton, (Harnish)
RB: Ballard, Brown, Carter, Karim
FB: Robert Hughes
TE: Allen, Fleener, Saunders
WR: Wayne, Hilton, Brazill, King/Boyce, (Avery)
LT: Castonzo
LG: Schwarz, Reitz
C: Shipley, Satele
RG: Vasquez, Ijalana, McGlynn
RT: Justice, Nixon/Williams
DE: Starks, Moala, Nevis
NT: Chapman, McKinney
DE: Redding, Mathews
OLB: Mathis, Hickman
OLB: Hughes, Jenkins/Lemonier
ILB: Freeman, (Fokou)
ILB: Angerer, Conner
CB: Davis, Butler, Gordy
CB: Trufant, Simon
FS: Bethea, Brown
SS: Moore, Lefeged, Zbikowski
KR: Karim
PR: Hilton
PK: Vinatieri
P: McAfee
LS: Overton
Some thoughts:
I'm not chasing a high priced free agent CB. If any, I think Mike Jenkins would present good value. Sean Smith and Cary Williams are not worth the 8M+ they apparently want, Keenan Lewis will be paid too, and my bet is DRC stays in Philly. But more important, Vontae is only under contract for one more season, so his contract has to be extended. That is easier to do with a rookie contract to Trufant. Furthermore, I decided to spend on William Moore. I'm pretty sure we all have longed for a really god partner for Bethea back there. He'll be a big help for the corners too.
Geoff Schwartz is a nasty blocker, but he only gets another 1 year prove it contract - as the Vikings gave him. He missed all of 2011 with a hip injury and missed some weeks in 2012 with sports hernia as well. Vikings paid him 1,5M for 2012. The Colts can offer him the chance to start and solidify a spot.
I'd love to get Anthony Spencer i FA to play that strongside outside linebacker position. But as I stated in the beginning, I wanted to keep this realistic. I'm giving Jerry Hughes the benefit of the doubt, and giving him a year to prove himself.
I have no idea what kind of compensatory picks the Colts will be given, but I figured at least a 5th for Garcon.
In this mock, OLB and RT might be a little thin. But I don't think it's realistic to sign 5-6 FAs. A FA signing of a OLB (Spencer) would make OLB a strong group though (even without Jenkins). I'd love to see that happen. It would free up a draft pick as well - or at least down prioritize the need for drafting an OLB. A guy like Philip Buchanon could then be had later.
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I like that finishing quote.
What I take from it, is that Grigs don't lock on to a guy just because the player has a big, well known name. The play/tape has to match the price, the price has to be right, and personality comes in to play as well. Grigs wants to find the right guy(s).
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Pass.
I'd much rather have Keenan Lewis, Mike Jenkins, Rodgers-Cromartie, Chris Houston or another FA corner than pay 8 mill/year for Sean Smith.
But really I'd prefer to grab Johnthan Banks or Xavier Rhodes in the first round of the draft. Use FA to improve OG, OLB, DE and maybe SS as well.
Of course there's no guarantee that either will be there at 24, but I do think there's a better chance for that than a stud OLB or 34 DE.
Speaking of Miami, I'd love to see the Colts add Randy Starks to the D-line.
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I really like Bethea as a SS/FS hybrid. He plays the run very well, taking good angles in run support and is a sure tackler. A SS doesn't necessarily mean a big hitter, but a guy playing closer to the LOS than the FS. Bethea do not make enough plays on the ball in coverage (INTs), and the Colts badly need more turnovers. A guy like Jairus Byrd would provide that. Sure, Byrd is a dream signing, but what an addition he would be.
That being said, I wouldn't mind taking a look at George Wilson as a relatively short term solution. The Bills just cut him to save money, but he's still a very good safety. Much like Bethea, he plays the both the run and pass well. He's 32, but if the price is right, I'd take a long hard look at him.
The above boils down to: If the Colts are spending big on a safety, I would prefer a ball hawk and playmaker. But for less money, if you can find a guy to plug in next to Bethea, I'm all for that. The team needs players all over the board (OL x 2/3, DL, OLB, CB, S), and are not signing Pro Bowlers to all of the positions. One thing's certain: Zbikowski can't return as a starter in 2013, so as of now, Joe Lefeged is the best bet at SS.
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But other than Rob Ryan being overrated and an arrogant DC, Saints switching to 3-4 is kind of exciting to watch - from a pure football perspective. I don't want to see them succeed...
They got some pieces who should fit very nicely in the 3-4. They can get rid of overpaid, underperforming players as Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis, and play a potential stud DL in Cameron Jordan at his best position, the 5 technique. Akiem Hicks should be a good fit at the other 34 DE spot. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne should fit well as ILBs, as should Martez Wilson and Junior Galette as 34 OLBs. They need another OLB and a NT, and they got a very potent starting defensive lineup.
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I honestly don't see how they could have chosen Ryan over Romeo Crennel. Romeo might stink as a head coach, but he's a fine defensive coordinator. I would have went with Crennel. It's funny that Crennel still hasn't gotten hired. New Englands best defenses I believe were when he was the coordinator.
KC are still paying Crennel in 2013, so Crennel is getting paid for taking a year off. I think I would do the same after that year i KC. Horrible QB situation, under performing defense, critic, and the traumatic experience with Jovan Belcher.
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Anthony Castonzo
Larry Warford
AQ Shipley
Louis Vasquez
Winston Justice/4th rd rookie
Trying to be a little realistic here.
Vasquez will be the FA upgrade on OL, and we won't spend heavy on a RT.
Larry Warford is our 3rd rd draft pick, but probably has to move up in the 3rd to get him. If not Warford, there could be a lot of options in the 3rd round for the right tackle spot, with the likes of Brennan Williams and Chris Faulk.
Justice and the right tackle position should be upgraded and this draft has some good options, even late. Before mentioned Williams or Faulk could be there, or Xavier Nixon, Menelik Watson, Oday Aboushi or Ricky Wagner. Some of these guys will be there in the 4th
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"I'd give Davis a C.
He's had some very bad games this year. Last week, he allowed 8 catches (on 10 targets) for 118 yards, and a touchdown. That's terrible for a #1 corner.
He allowed a huge game from Calvin (although, I'll give him some slack there).
However, he is an upgrade over any cornerback the Colts have had in the last 5 years, and I love the trade that Grigson did, and I think time will help him grow into a better player, and get him more comfortable with this system. "
Davis rarely linep up across from Calvin. For the majority of the snaps, Vaughn was covering Calvin and allowed lots of yards. Didn't get much help either.
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Just another bad, bad decision by Luck. Has eliminate these kind of plays.
But just as bad a call by the referee! Knee was down. Play is dead at that point. Get your s*** together, ref!
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Get Vaughn out of the starting line up!
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I got one specific thing about the Colts' picks, which I can back up with a tweet I made back in April:
I wanted Cordy Glenn over Coby Fleener in the 2nd round. I still wish that Glenn would have been the pick.
I loved Cordy Glenn pre draft, and was sure he would be at least a solid 10 year vet at either LG, RG og RT. But he has surpassed even my expectations by holding down the LT spot in Buffalo. And doing that well.
To stay with the Colts, I liked T.Y. Hilton. I did not, however, at the time like that the Colts gave up a top 4th round pick and 2013's 5th round pick for a (very) late 3rd round pick... I'm happy the Colts did just that.
Players I liked:
QB Andrew Luck - Words seem unnecessary now. I wanted him over RG3, which I also made a tweet about.
I wasn't sold on RG3, but the "only" knock on him from my perspective, was how he would translate to an NFL offense, dropping back, reading coverages, etc. I'm still quite unsure of what sort of succes he would have in an offense that don't use option plays heavily. Hats off to the The Shanahans for creating a system that fits RG3 very well.
DT Fletcher Cox - He was my 6th rated prospect.
WR Michael Floyd - My top rated receiver. Best hands in the draft.
OL Cordy Glenn - Described above.
CB Janoris Jenkins - I don't think any team was unaware of this guys ability, but off field issues weighs heavily in the draft (Proof: Alfonzo Dennard). He was my 2nd rated corner. Claibornes length and ball skills (at least equally to Jenkins') made him my no. 1 CB.
LB Lavonte David - Great instincts, always took right angles, great tackler. I had a 1st round grade on him, but knew his size would push him back in to the 2nd round.
TE Michael Egnew - Really liked his athletic ability and potential as a pass catcher in the NFL. He had catched my eye in a Mizzou game once as well. Boy, was I wrong!
CB Jayron Hosley - A ball hawk, who lacks great size. Had a solid 2nd round grade on Hosley. That was a bit high. I still believe the Giants got a steal at the end of the 3rd round though.
DE/DT Malik Jackson - Defensive lineman with experience as both DE and DT. I really liked him as a 3-4 DE. Great use of hands, great frame.
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Players I absolutely didn't like:
WR Justin Blackmon - Hated his (lack of) ability to separate from defenders.
DT Dontari Poe - Well, I did like his upside. Who didn't? But would never take him 11th overall. I had a 2nd round grade on him.
DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus - A one year wonder in college, had a lot of coverage sacks. Not explosive, no strong hands, no extra ordinary length.
QB Brock Osweiler - His throwing motion and release point is flat out awful (was at Arizona St.).
DE/OLB Bruce Irwin - I did not see this physical play, which he is showing now, when he was at WV. Thought he was a one trick pony off the edge.
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DB: Keenan Lewis, Pittsburgh; Cary Williams, Ravens; DaShon Goldson, 49ers for safety
DE: Richard Seymour, Raiders
OL: Matt Slauson, Jets; Louis Vasquez, Chargers
OLB: Anthony Spencer, Cowboys
Draft the rest, we will be cooking.
Liking this.
Keenan Lewis and Louis Vasquez would be solid additions. 26 og 25 years of age, respectively.
Lewis is a long rangy corner, great tackler (you have to be for the Steelers), and can compete for most balls due to his length.
Vasquez is 335lbs and should fit the power blocking scheme nicely.
And I'm all for Spencer as Freeney's replacement. Been so for a long time. Cowboys "3rd OLB", Victor Butler, might also be an interesting acqusition.
FA:
CB Keenan Lewis
OG Louis Vasquez
OLB Anthony Spencer/Victor Butler
Draft:
1st: Sheldon Richardson, DL
3rd: Dallas Thomas/Brennan Williams/Oday Aboushi - the best RT available.
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If there's a guy you like, you get him. Should the Colts trade down? You won't know until the draft.
The top needs in the off season will probably be: OG, RT, CB, OLB, SS.
I would love to see the Colts come out of this draft with either Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper to add some quality to the interior offensive line. If we get the opportunity to pick Warmack in the 20s, that's a no brainer. Look at the impact that a guy like Mike Iupati has in San Francisco. Let's get that sort of talent up front.
A RT could be had in the 3rd round. Brennan Williams got hurt his senior year, and could potentially slip. He would be a terrific addition. Oday Aboushi, Ricky Wagner, Alex Hurst, Xavier Nixon and/or perhaps DJ Fluker could all be possibilitis in the 3rd round.
If a guy like Bacarri Rambo slips to the 3rd round, it would be more than difficult to pass on that kind of talent at the safety position and going for a RT.
With the cap room next year, Grigson should fill holes on defense - CB and OLB - through free agency. Guys like Anthony Spencer, Connor Barwin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Derek Cox should all draw interest from the Colts.
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A few good FA options:
OG Andy Levitre, Buffalo Bills - by far the best FA guard in 2013. It's not even close. The Colts' OL needs a guy like this,
OLB Anthony Spencer, Dallas Cowboys - One of the better strongside 34 outside linebackers in the NFL. Plays the run fantastic and can get after the QB. Experienced in dropping into coverage. Plays opposite DeMarcus Ware and drops quite a bit. Therefore he doesn't get the same attention and statistical production as other edge rushers.
OLB Connor Barwin, Houston Texans - another option for the edge. Freeney won't be a Colt beyond the 2012 season.
CB Mike Jenkins, Dallas Cowboys - Trained and well suited for bump and run man coverage. A little marred by injuries though.
CB Domininique Rodgers-Cromartie, Philadelphia Eagles - Really, he's yet to put it togehter on the field. But he has all kinds of physical tools, and Pagano might be the one to coach him up and showcase the talent.
Draft options for first three picks (in no particular order):
1st round: OG Chance Warmack, CB, Demarcus Milliner, CB Xavier Rhodes, OLB Dion Jordan, DL Sheldon Richardson, DE/OLB Damontre Moore, LB Manti Te'o, LB CJ Mosley, S Tony Jefferson, S Kenny Vaccaro.
2nd round: Traded to Miami.
3rd round: OT Brennan Williams (senior who got hurt in 2012, could drop because of that), OT/OG Dallas Thomas (He probably won't be here, but if he is, get him!!!), OT Oday Aboushi, OT Ricky Wagner, OG Larry Warford, CB Desmond Trufant, CB Micah Hyde, LB Michael Mauti, S Bacarri Rambo, S Robert Lester
4th round: CB Darius Slay, LB Jake Knott, LB Khaseem Greene
it should be needless to say, not all of these guys will be available in the given rounds. Some will though.
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A couple of different scenarios involving three players:
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Joe Reitz
C: Samson Satele/AQ Shipley
RG: Andy Levitre (signed as FA from the Bills)
RT: Demetress Bell (released by the Eagles, signed as FA)
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Joe Reitz
C: Samson Satele/AQ Shipley
RG: Larry Warford (3rd round draft pick out of Kentucky)
RT: Demetress Bell (released by the Eagles, signed as FA)
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Andy Levitre (signed as FA from the Bills)
C: Samson Satele/AQ Shipley
RG: Larry Warford (3rd round draft pick out of Kentucky)
RT: Demetress Bell (released by the Eagles, signed as FA)
*Eagles can get out of Bell's contract after this year without paying him anything but the 3.25M he cost them this year. They likely get Jason Peters back from injury next year, and are not interested in triggering more guaranteed money in Bell's deal.
Andy Levitre is by far the best guard who will be eligible for free agency in 2013. Will be interesting if he gets to the open market. Chad Rinehart is a good alternative.
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For what it's worth, here are last year's Free Agent Tackles.... plus, their rank as a FA done by Pro Football Weekly.
Eric Winston Texans 32nd overall FA went to Chiefs
Demetress Bell Bills 50th overall went to Eagles
Jared Gaither Chargers 54th overall stayed with Chargers
Levi Brown Cards 79th overall stayed with Cards
Marcus McNeil Chargers 100th overall injured/retired
That's it folks. So, if you're counting on some top tackle to hit FA, don't hold your breath. It rarely happens. The position is so hard to fill that teams make sure to sign their best players before they hit FA. Filling needs through FA is easier said than done.
Nevertheless, Demetress Bell will with a good amount of likelihood hit free agency again i 2013. The demand for Bell in 2012 wasn't great at all - which was a bit surprising - and the Eagles snatched him when Jason Peters got hurt.
The numbers might say that Bell got a 5 year deal worth 35 million, but in reality it's an one year deal worth 3,25 million. Nothing of Bell's contract is guaranteed beyond 2012, which is also the period for which Jason Peters is out. The Eagles are free to cut him before the 2013 season.
However, 2013 is cheap (1,2M + 100k workout bonuses) in Bell's contract so the Eagles could opt to keep him as insurance.
Surprisingly, King Dunlap has beaten out Bell in Eagles starting lineup. I guess Howard Mudd didn't see the fit. But Dunlap pulled a hamstring against the Ravens and Bell replaced him - and played really well. Bell will probably start at LT week 3.
Bottomline, I would really like to see Grigson and the staff go after Bell if he becomes available. He would be a massive improvement at RT. Given that there wasn't much of a market for him in 2012, he could come relatively cheap - well under the 5,5 million that Winston got from KC (really the mark for RTs as Winston is probably best in the NFL).
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Dwayne Allen lines up a lot in the backfield as a FB/H-back, and Fleener motions in there at times. To be honest, I'm sick of it. Neither of those guys are primarily blockers, they excel as pass catchers.
In the run game, more than often than not, they don't even throw a block. They charge ahead looking for somebody to block, but often misses out.
I get that TEs are multidimensional and can be utilized as pass catchers (and being better at it than most FBs) out the backfield. But how many passes have really gone the the H-back?
Instead, line the two TEs up at the line. You can run it out of that formation, pulling O-linemen or going with stretch plays. At the same time, the TEs will present a much bigger threat to the defense as targets for Luck, either from their position on the line or being motioned/audibled out as a WR.
Either try Dominique Jones as the H-back (he seems to be the better blocker to me) or get a proper FB who can pave the way for the RB. Don't waste the talents of Allen and Fleener.
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Besides Heath Miller, which TEs has impacted Arians' TE-stats? That's a pretty significant contributor, the quality of the players involved.
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Good post, atacpl. It will be interesting to see, and I will definitely keep an eye on it.
Grigson could opt to bring in Joselio Hanson for the nickel job, and if so, let's see if Vaughn will be the odd one out.
Seeking input on possible trade
in Fantasy Football & Gaming
Posted
Well, neither Ridley or Miller are making much noise, which equals lousy trade value.
So I'm down to this:
Trade Julius Thomas for Josh Gordon - yes/no?