ztboiler
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Posts posted by ztboiler
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13 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:
Been seeing some mocks with the Colts taking receivers like Lamb or Jeudy in the 1st. I really don’t think we need to do that though. People have compared this WR class to the one from 2014, and it’s not an exaggeration.
I’ve been doing some more film study and I think we should target a WR in rounds 2-3. There’s a lot of depth. 2 WRs flying under the radar are Gabriel Davis of UCF and Denzel Mims of Baylor. I expect both to rise (at least in the eyes of the media) after combine testing. Add to that guys like Pittman, Aiyuk, Reagor, DPJ, Hamler, etc...
I think we should wait on WR
It's funny how much more focused we are (as are the experts) on our weakness at WR now that A. Luck has retired.
Not too long ago the sentiment on this board would have been a lot different with the exact same personnel returning...projecting the continued rise of Zach Pascal and the return of a healthy TY Hilton with P. Campbell having a productive year 2 building on glimpses of talent while simply taking a mulligan on Funchess (who would be foolish to re-sign here on a 1 year deal). Fountain will be back to compete for the 5th spot...so just draft a mid round guy to develop and let A. Luck make him better.
It's not that we don't need to capitalize on a great WR draft class...we clearly do...nor is a bad idea to draft Jeudy or Lamb early (we could use a difference-maker and young WR1 to be sure), but our impatience at the receiver position is directly tied to the QB position....in my opinion.
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5 hours ago, stitches said:
I'm not sure but it seems like Cosell has Love ranked no. 2 behind only Burrow. He's lower on Tua than most, higher on Love than most. His under the radar prospect is James Morgan out of FIU
Remembering back to when Cosell was a bit critical of Andrew Luck pre-draft, so I looked up his analysis (which is more balanced in writing than some of his pre-draft interview comments were)
It was fair analysis by Cosell to see Luck as a system quarterback in College and wonder if that would limit him at the next level - while offering greater praise of Griffin. Yet, Luck became a notorious gun slinger...and by the following off season Cosell called him the most gifted QB in the game.
Perfectly good analysis of college QBs, their abilities and what systems they will flourish in or if they will flourish at all is quite slippery, even if you know what you're looking at...and Cosell clearly does...but his piece on Griffin and Luck is a great reminder that we all get to enjoy the process and live with the results.
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16 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:
I'm hesitant to trade up that far. Based on some of the past trades, I think the Bucs and Bills 2018 trade gives a solid precedent to work with. So to me, to jump to 4, it looks like we'd be looking at least 3 high picks, starting obviously with #13. Given our current draft picks available, the other picks will probably be a '21 1st, and probably two (I'm guessing pick two of three), the 2020 Redskins 2nd Rd, the 2020 Colts 2nd Rd., a 2021 future 1st Rd. and/or a 2021 2nd Rd. Day 3 picks going either way can always help fill in any small gap in the negotiations and the value of picks always differ depending on how teams see the draft class strength.
Seems kind of hefty to me. But if a QB is a guy you do'nt mind swinging for the fences on, you'll pay it. If Ballard did that, people will start to turn on him the second they decide it doesn't pan out - not that he should care. But that's a big career defining trade that can set a franchise back a few years if it you're wrong.
It’s just as detrimental, if not moreso, to Ballard’s future as a GM if he plays it safe without a franchise QB.
He is paid to be right. He’s said as much himself. What we know for sure is that if he doesn’t think this year’s QB crop is his best opportunity then he will wait for a better one to push all-in on.
Ballard also knows that he’s built a good enough roster that he may never again draft high enough to get the QB he wants without mortgaging a bunch of draft capital
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25 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:
There is no costs to move up to four.
Since he’s been a GM, Dave Gettleman has never EVER trades down. We’re not getting to four.
Gettleman hasn’t lived long enough for you to make that statement...but you do make a great point...Gettleman strikes me as difficult to deal with and I hadn’t considered the trade partner in that regard.
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31 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:
Quality of the roster?!!? We r far from challenging the elite teams. 2 more drafts r needed
We’d be drafting in the 20’s this year with serviceable kicking and QB play...
We now resume our regularly scheduled dramatic responses.
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1 hour ago, chad72 said:
Our 1st, a future 1st and No.34, unfortunately.
Given the quality of the rest of our roster...and the possibility that next year’s 1st is in the 20’s, that feels like a doable price to me...for either Herbert or Tua.
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We reaped 3 twos (2 of them high 2s) from the Jets to drop from 3 to 6.
What does everyone think the actual cost would be to get from 13 to 4?
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34 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:
I don't think that's necessarily a problem, we have control over, though. I mean sure he could trade up or down and manipulate draft position to get a guy that can at least challenge JB. I'd prefer to secure the future stocking the roster, and tout out a capable backup for another year. Projecting QBs is just something tha'ts nearly impossible for any team to do, let alone us commoners. Even then, the only guys I really like this year are Burrows and Love so far. I'm terrified of drafting Tua and I haven't watched Herbert yet. I don't like Eason and I think Fromm is basically another Jacoby Brissett. Other prospects I may look at, but now we're getting into the 3rd round and below long(er) shots.
I don’t think it’s a problem either. While I dislike the idea of going through another year without a franchise QB in the building, it’s a far superior option to drafting what isn’t available when pro bowl talent is available at BPA.
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2 minutes ago, stitches said:
Not sure if you watched the game, so if you did forgive me for this explanation.
He should have been 6/6 for about 150 yards and a TD. The miss in the first Q was a perfectly placed ball to the sideline about 25-30 yards downfield. His receiver got held/interfered(nothing called) so he couldn't complete the catch. His second missed throw was this:
Love navigated collapsing pocket and threw what seemed off one foot pass 50 yards downfield. Mims didn't even turn to see the ball. The ball lands like... 2 yards next to him. This is a TD if he just tracks the ball and catches it.
That ball went 60 yards in the air on a pretty effortless flick of the wrist....
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46 minutes ago, stitches said:
Yeah, he's my guy in this year's class. Not that I think he's the best, but it seems like I like him better than most people and I think he can be a real fun player. But I fully realize the risk. There is a not insignificant bust potential with him(higher than probably any of the top 5-6 QBs). But at the same time with the QB position, I kind of like boom or bust prospects. I don't want mediocrity out of my QB. I want him to either be great so we'd invest in him or a bust so we can move on ASAP.
It will be interesting several months before the draft for sure. For some reason I'm having a bad feeling that Ballard might try to give JB another shot.
If by “Give JB another shot” you mean that Ballard will prioritize players with more long term roster value than QBs he’s in position to draft...I’m quite afraid of that as well...we all should be. Ballard won’t budge on his board.
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4 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:
Man. This sounded eerily similar to what could be going on with Love.
**Conspiracy Theory**
Ballard has been on him since his Sophomore year.
Love has a down year but still decides to come out. Why? Ballard spoke with his agent and said we want him. They agree Reich and Colts are best for him.
We are sitting at 13 and Ballard has some connections on where to move up if needed.
This is gonna be interesting.
Agreed...in general. Huge difference in specifics, however, when comparing the play making that Mahomes showed in college and the draft capital you’d give up to roll the dice that he might be what he has become.
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8 minutes ago, Shadow_Creek said:
and were did you read the raiders were into love? besides the lions might get him or the chargers or even fins so lets not jump to conclusions. besides even it he is taken there are still good QBs left
Raiders need lovin' too...
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1 hour ago, stitches said:
Ballard has made it pretty easy to follow the way he thinks on draft day. Love at 13 or higher would seem out of character for Ballard amidst the question marks with consistency & accuracy that you can't resolve with workouts. I think Love is comparable to Derek Carr coming out of college and Ballard will see his draft value similarly.
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1 hour ago, cbear said:
For the sake of argument, can our personnel switch to a 3-4 or whatever he runs? I doubt we pursue him but I've always liked his imagination.
No, we don’t have the personnel immediately, but it wouldn’t be all the tough to add the pieces we’d need...we certainly have the stand up rushers, and Stewart is a nice piece. Hunt and Autry could both do well in a one gap 3-4 but we’d need 2 or 3 more DT sized pieces for depth at the point of attack than we currently carry. Our off the ball LBs could probably do it, but Leonard probably wouldn’t be the impact guy he is for us in any other scheme....and that’s the real issue.
Impact. Everything about the draft capital we’ve invested for three years is optimized to the current scheme. It’s a scheme I hate...but it’s one you can clearly win with when optimized...it would take at least 2 years to optimize impact in a scheme change...so we’ve got to simply do what we do at a higher level...
And somehow draft Warren Sapp
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3 hours ago, danlhart87 said:
Tua Burrow Love and Herbert all declare for the NFL Draft.
Dolphins don't take QB at 5 and one of the above fall to 13.
We trade down to 18
Here's my question:
What would you want in return and is there any possible way we would get a 2021 1st?
Without even consulting the chart, that trade back has been done similarly in years past for much less compensation than a 1. The Chiefs got all the way from 27 to 10 in 2017 for just a first and a third.
Kinda makes the Texans look bad by comparison for netting merely Deshaun Watson by moving from 25 to 12 for a 1 when they could have easily had Mahomes...
Then again, evaluating QBs is just that difficult and imprecise.
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29 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:
No this is not the year to move up when you have the 13th pick. When picking at the bottom of the first it makes sense. Not at 13.
Odd comment to me. The trade compensation to get from 13 to top 10 is quite doable historically without giving up a future 1. It all depends on how you value available players and what it costs to get there.
There are players in this draft, not just QBs that Ballard will make offers on to trade up for...doubt his offers will be accepted, however.
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I question the fit for our scheme and not whether he is worth a premium pick but whether he is worth a premium pick to us. As a 4-3 DE he could play either side, but he's more of a power rusher with good hands. He'd be a bigger, less explosive version of Justin Houston from a rush style perspective. He's probably a very dynamic interior rusher if he wants to make the conversion, but has never been played in that role. As is, his natural fit is as an every down strong side DE, and the premium spots in our scheme are at 3T and weakside DE.
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But if you watch the whole Chris Ballard press conference, you will know not only that we have leadership at GM seldom seen, but that there is a pretty transparent future available to us fans in terms of a vision for what will and won’t work to win it all as a franchise.
Really worth your time to listen as a fan of this team or just a fan of life.
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9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
If you look at his numbers, Carr’s last two seasons have been excellent. So while my asking price may be too high, I think yours is going to be much lower than will be needed.Maybe there’s a midway point between the two? Just not sure how much Ballard will be willing to pay?
Could be a better market than Garrapolo, certainly...we’ll all find out soon enough.
His passing efficiency numbers are the best if his career. No surprise since playing for Gruden - same guy who turned Rich Gannon into a pro bowler. But he’s still only thrown for 21 and 19 TDs these last two years, and has failed to emerge as the guy who can carry a team yet in his 6th year.
I’d be surprised if Ballard parts with more than our high 2 plus JB...and we can be pretty certain that Gruden doesn’t want JB.
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32 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
I don't think anyone has to work hard to make a strong case for Derek Carr. He's had two very good seasons in a row.
I think the problem is, Ballard is not going to want to pay the price that Oakland will likely ask. My guess is the Raiders will want TWO #1's and more... a 2 and maybe even a 3 as well.
Not sure I see Ballard loving Carr THAT much.
Cmon now...
The price may be too high at the end of the day, and Gruden may want something silly like that...but Carr has only had one year in 6 where he looked like a surefire franchise QB.
There is no market for him to generate that kind of trade compensation. Maybe a 1. Maybe. But his market is probably more like Garrapolo’s was. Potential to be a franchise guy but unproven.
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14 minutes ago, Dirty Mudflaps said:
Carr is a 39-55 QB with not a single playoff start to his credit. He is Jacoby Brissett, and every other .500ish (sub) QB who shows flashes, and then disappoints. He's had the likes of Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook, Waller, Jacobs, Lynch, and Murray as weapons. The Raiders, albeit temporarily, made him the highest paid QB when his current deal was signed. He's had a lot of support and a lot of talent on those rosters for them to be as bad as they've been. His fault? Of course not. But he's a part of exactly the same problem in Oakland as JB is here. This discussion is akin to shuffling chairs on the Titanic.
Poor comparison.
Carr played stellar football in 2016, leading the Raiders to 12 wins and the playoffs before suffering the devastating injury against us in week 16.Things didn’t comeback together for the Raiders in 2017 at the same level...that happens in the NFL....and we all know that the team was parted out in 2018.
Simply no comparison to JB on any level.
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44 minutes ago, MPStack said:
Clarify nobody is available?
Agreed!
Either can be cut with little CAP ramifications.
8th in total passing Yds and first in completion 70%.
Carr won’t be had for a 3rd.
Nobody is available at 13...meaning we have no idea who is available when we’re on the clock anyway...it’s just as uncertain as the trade compensation to get Carr or whether Gruden will trade him or not.
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18 minutes ago, MPStack said:
1. Is he really available?
2. Will the Colts cut Brissett? They already have 26.5M combined with Brissett and Hoyer in 2020.
3. Compensation for getting Carr? He won’t be had for cheap!
I don’t hate it or necessary love the idea, but he’d be an upgrade.
Drafting at 13...nobody is available. It’s all hypothetical.
Brissett and Hoyer are quite dispensable, yes, and neither have contracts designed to be burdensome if cut.
Of course it depends on compensation for Carr...trades always do...
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Seems like the best path if Oakland wants a fresh start. @chad72 has championed this idea and I don’t know why it doesn’t have more traction
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Greg Cosell on the QBs of the 2020 Draft
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Too your point. We all thought we might have a mediocre QB and we might have bad one instead. With mediocre, in the NFL, it's pretty hard to tell the difference.