schwamm
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Posts posted by schwamm
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All the talk about Manning lately reminds me of a discussion in a philosophy class back in college. The arguement was: If you believe in God, but there really isn't one, what do you gain/risk, and if you don't, but there is, what do you gain/risk.
So to repurpose the questions, with my perspective on the answers (feel free to expand with your own thoughts)...
What are the potential risks (worst case) of cutting Manning?
He goes on to play for another team, and gives them 2-4 years of great play, the Colts could have benefitted from that great play, the QB we draft doesn't live up to expectations, and fans stop paying for season tickets because the team sucks.
What are the potential risks (worst case) of keeping Manning?
He isn't really healthy enough to play, the signing bonus and his contract put the team in cap heck for years, they can't afford to surround PM or his backup with anything to help them, and we have several more years like 2011. The fans stick around for a little while to see Manning, but it is a sad show, like watching a train wreck, and ultimately they leave in droves.
What are potential gains (best case) of cutting Manning?
Cap space is freed up, the team is able to groom a successor who becomes a star in the league in his own right for the next 10+ years, and they are able to surround that new star with better talent at more positions. It takes a couple years, but the team is reborn with a new identity and re-establishes its winning ways. The stadium remains sold out, and schwamm's parents never get off the waiting list and have to beg for a couple of his seats periodically.
What are the potential gains (best case) of keeping Manning?
The team rallies from a terrible 2011, Manning returns to lighting it up for the Horseshoe for another 2-4 years, we all get the satisfaction of seeing him stay a Colt for his entire career, and we get the opportunity to revisit all the "how do we rebuild this team" talk in 2-4 years.
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I found myself a similar dilemma in the 80's. I was in HS in NJ, was a huge fan of the Giants, and faced the Parcells or Giants question. At the time, I chose the Tuna, but later found I just couldn't become a Patriots fan, even if they had a coach I idolized. Several of my favorite players (Simms, LT, Meggett, Bavaro, etc.) were getting phased off the Giants, and I moved to Indy around that time too. Ultimately, I slowly transitioned into being a true-blood Colts fan when I began to realize that for me, it was about getting invested in my community and rooting for team and not one individual.
If the team parts ways with Manning, I wish him the best, but I will always be a Colts fan first.
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yeah luck is unproven but so was manning in 98.
Hate to point out the elephant in the room, but so is Manning in '12.
We all want him to be the same player he was prior to '11, and I assume most of us want him to finish his career in Indy, but the reality is we just don't know what he is capable of right now. There are a ton of posters who seem to want to label Luck as a complete unknown and probable bust, and Manning as a definite to return to his old form. I suppose the these extremes allow for a clearer arguement, but the reality is almost guaranteed to be more like: both will be good, but neither likely as great as Manning was.
I really appreciate the OP's optimism, and hope Manning stays... not because I believe he will deliver more superbowls, but because I think he represents the team and Indianapolis so well.
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I would also imagine that the cost/benefit analysis is seldom just for the next season, but is something that weighs the short and long term.
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I would say money, in terms of fitting within the salary cap, is a major reason.
I would actually say it is not just money, age, or talent, but a blend of factors that are summed up as a cost/benefit or value equation.
Imagine you are the GM, and have player A on your roster. He is the best in the league at his position but getting to a point where history shows players decline. Hypothetically, let's say keeping him costs $20MM/year. Now let's imagine there are options (through the draft or FA) to pick up someone with 80% of player A's skill, with youth and significant signs of ability to improve, but at a fraction of player A's salary.
And let's say freeing up that cap space affords you an opportunity to improve other areas of your team by a margin greater than the dropoff caused by showing player A the door. In this senario, the team almost has to pull the trigger.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, if you, as GM, feel that player A's potential contribution is invaluable to the team (for his play, for his leadership, for his work ethic, for ticket sales, whatever), and replacing him would create a net downgrade to the team, you almost have to keep him.
Money is definitely a big part of the equation, but in my opinion, only insofar as it affects a player's value.
I prefer to look at it less as the team cutting stars as management pruning to keep the whole "tree" healthy. Do it poorly, and it struggles to grow. Do it right, and it grows like crazy.
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I retract part of that. I don't mean to call you dull or ignorant. Just that playing the Newbie card comes accross that way.
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He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!
You have no idea how much I do or don't know about the subject. Again, playing the new poster card is dull and ignorant. I suppose you imagine you are better versed in the Colts than I and a better fan because you've entered a couple more thoughts in this forum than I. That is silly. For all I know you have been a fan since the beginning of time, and have a perfect memory of all facts Colts related, but I'm not inclined to assume that just because you have a whopping 988 posts.
I encourage you to consider debunking his arguement rather than attacking him as a hater. He can present whatever information suits him. It doesn't really matter what you asked for, nor does it matter if he delivered on your requests or not. I can only assume he is not on the forum for your benefit.
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Just please don't misrepresent what statistics are and are not and make it seem like what you say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats: on their own, stats are one way to analyze a situation, not a complete analysis of a situation.
Very true.
If the statement is "based on what I see in the stats, these is my expectations for the outcome", I can accept almost everything Frog is suggesting. If on the other hand the arguement is phrased as "these are the stats, and there is no other logical conclusion but to accept my thinking as gospel", I part ways. To this point, I haven't seen any pressure to agree, but I still haven't managed to read every post by Frog.
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You can pretend like you don't know where we are coming from all you want. You take every opportunity in every thread to state why Peyton doesn't belong. I don't really care that two new posters are coming to your aid, people are catching on to what you do.
So maybe I'm slow to "catch on to what Frog is doing"... but don't mistake "new poster" for not being able to read or form an opinion.
What I'm still seeing is someone presenting data, and giving their best interpretation of that data. Based on the numbers Frog sees, Frog thinks Manning is likely out the door, and has made every effort to explain why that is the logical conclusion. You see the same data, and have a different conclusion. That makes neither of you a savior or a hater, just inclined to forecast the situation differently. If Frog has attempted to convey his point too many times for your liking, you may, of course, ignore him. Having the opinion is still his prerogative, as is sharing it on this forum. Tracking his opinion or not is yours.
When you follow up by saying you'll apologize if Frog shows you more numbers (crunched to your satisfaction) it comes off as a little lazy. If you have a point to prove, then figure out how to prove it. Don't ask someone else to prove your arguement for you, especially when they disagree with you.
And Mr. Horseman, please don't start insulting people for being intelligent. From what I've read, Frog isn't just "spewing big words". The arguement sounds intelligent because it is, even where you don't agree.
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I have to wonder where this impression that Frog hates Manning comes from. I admit I haven't read every thread in the forum to see the full history, but have read through this one a couple times to see if I missed ssomething.
Let's get this out first... I am a Colts fan. Have been since the "glory days" of Trudeau and George. I am also a season ticket holder, and have been fortunate enough to watch Manning play for his entire career. I often imagine sharing memories with my future grandchildren of Peyton's magical moments on the field.
That said, this thread has provided me with interesting and good information. As a Colts fan, my biggest concern is for the long term interest of the team. From my reading, I am seeing an unemotional financial analysis. I haven't seen Frog say anything derogatory about Manning, just that paying the March 8 signing bonus would possibly/likely have severe repercussions that could cripple the team for years, especially if Manning is unable to play, or only able to play one more season.
You likely despise the idea that Manning might not be around as a Colt next season. I know I'm not thrilled about it. But don't shoot the messanger for showing you why you probably ought to expect it.
If the information shared is correct, a simple cost/benefit analysis would suggest the team is better off releasing Manning and kicking off the Luck (or whoever we draft or pick up in free agency) era. It looks like it simply costs too much, and the risks are too great to pay Manning the bonus.
Frog's information could be wrong, or there could be errors the way Frog crunched of the numbers. So if you are convinced of another reality, show where there are mistakes in logic. Labeling anyone a Manning hater, just because they share facts that shake up your world view, seems kinda juvenile, though.
Regardless Of What Happens Folks.......
in Colts Football
Posted
No. I'm sorry, Jules, but if Peyton leaves, he is taking all the footballs with him. If he can't throw them here, no one can.