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shasta519

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Posts posted by shasta519

  1. 13 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

    yeah, and I’d venture to say he could still pull $10-15 in free agency

     

    Mack can get $10-15M? No way he gets that right now. The only way Mack can get that is if he can come back, stay healthy for a season and produces big.

     

    I can't see any team committing that type of money to a RB coming off an achilles tear...who has had prior injury issues. Guys like Lendale White, Mikel Leshoure, Kendall Hunter...played for a year and then were pretty much done. Arian Foster was older...but it was basically the end of his career as well. There will be teams that roll the dice on a one-year deal...but not a normal RB FA deal. 

     

    It really sucks for Mack...maybe he can buck the trend.

  2. 50 minutes ago, chad72 said:

    Great GM for roster depth and complete team.

     

    However, high value positions like WR and pass rusher, definitely lacking in top notch talent drafted or seeing results on the field, it is like we have been waiting for a while for the next WR behind TY to produce. He cannot continue to draft like he has Andrew Luck anymore, hoping the QB will elevate those positions, even if we sign vet QBs in their home stretch. The QB, WR and pass rusher positions cover up roster depth blemishes faster than most positions. No wonder Polian was successful for so long with the draft and inferior depth on D and special teams.

     

    We are at a cross roads w.r.t the QB position. We either double down on free agent/vet QBs while drafting for the future simultaneously and continue to do that for the next 2 years while drafting for the high value positions OR pull a big trade for a QB we think can be a franchise QB for 6-7 years.

     

    Agree. With or without Luck...the WR moves have been bad. Aiken, Grant, Funchess, Cain, Fountain, Campbell and Pittman. I am not going to write off Campbell and certainly not Pittman...but that is a very meh group...and in 4 offseasons...it is also a concerning trend. Whether it's a deprioritization or just bad talent evaluation (that has led to passing on very good WRs to draft lesser WRs/players)...objectively...it needs to get (much) better. 

     

    The DE position has been similar...in regards to the draft. Fortunately, Ballard was shrewd in signing both Sheard and Houston. But 3 2nd round picks at DE...and the Colts have gotten little. How many teams can (potentially) whiff on 3 2nd round picks? If not for that great trade deal with the NYJ (and the first 3 picks of that 2018 draft)...I think the Ballard draft convo is a bit different.

     

    But like you said...it's all about the QB if sustained success is the goal.

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  3. 7 minutes ago, twfish said:

    To me he is one of the greatest GM's currently in the league. He's gotten the raw end of the deal on somethings but has made incredible moves. I would like to see him become less stubborn at times with moves, seems like he is to loyal to players at times such as Brissett. There are definitely some areas of concern for me and I am still scratching my head at picks such as the Banogu pick in the 2nd round. All in all I am incredibly happy with him and his positives heavily outweigh any negatives. The next 2 years will be very crucial for his legacy though because IMHO the excuses stop after having 2 years to find the QB of the future but I do think he will go down as one of the Colts best GM's ever. 

     

    I will say...while Luck retiring was a raw deal...how many new GMs actually get to inherit a top tier franchise QB? Most teams make a change in the FO because they don't have that QB (and therefore the team is not good). So while having your QB retire abruptly is uncommon...it is not uncommon for a GM to have to solve the QB problem for a franchise...like Ballard will have to do.

     

    I would also say that Ballard got a chance few GMs get. The 2017 team was a disaster...and it gave the Colts the #3 pick in a QB-heavy draft. Already having a QB on the roster (at the time)...Ballard was able to flip that pick into a huge amount of draft capital to accelerate the rebuild. In his first 3 drafts...he had SIX 2nd round picks to work with. And most people don't even begin to evaluate him until the 2018 season...which seems like a pretty good deal as well.

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  4. I like Ballard...and I think he's a very good GM. He seems to be very strong in some areas...and not as strong in other. I do think he's overrated by some as well. He's certainly not infallible...as some (especially on the Colts sub reddit) would have you believe. But overall...a big step up from the previous GM. 

     

    But while the Colts have built a pretty good team...it's all going to hinge on how QB is addressed long-term.

     

     

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  5. 3 minutes ago, stitches said:

    Are we sure Turay is going to come back and if he does that he will be in good enough football shape to play meaningful snaps? This injury has been quite bad it seems... it's more than a year already and it seems like he's still not quite ready. This is not a knock on him... just unfortunate circumstances, but it's possible we might not get much from him this year... or ever... :( 

     

    Depending on Turay seems like a dubious proposition. He has to get healthy...AND stay healthy. The most recent news I heard was that he could be activated off PUP but would still be a few weeks away.

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  6. 2 minutes ago, stitches said:

    I don't have access to the all-22 tape so I can't say what the reason is, but it's possible there is a reason outside of Reich and/or Rivers. For example, I am not sure how well he runs routes and how often he actually beats man coverage one on one. Rivers has never had trouble targeting TEs... in fact he loves targeting TEs. This was the same with Luck and Mo wasn't getting tons of targets with Luck either. 

     

    No idea... I'd love for someone with access to all-22 to break down if there is something specific to Mo himself that's stopping him from taking the next step as a receiver. 

     

    He was wide open in that MIN game...at least 2-3 times. But with his size and massive hands...I am not even sure it matters if he is separating well. Doyle and Burton are both running 2x as many routes as him per game. Part of that is due to snap discrepancy...but even when he's on the field...it seems like he is blocking more than running routes. 

     

    The only thing I can think of is that he got banged up at some point after that MIN game...and his usage decreased. Otherwise...it's pretty questionable. He is much more efficient than Doyle and (especially) Burton. And he's an RFA after this year...so you would think they would like to expand his role further to see what they have.

  7. 1 hour ago, chad72 said:

     

    That is why I suggested Curtis Samuel. He can fulfill a variety of roles. 

     

    Another speedy guy off the top of my head is that Pringle guy from KC Chiefs - buried behind Hill, Watkins, Hardman and Robinson. When they had a ton of injuries a year ago, he performed well, IMO, running good routes. Right now, because of his speed and depth chart, he is used as KR occasionally and on special teams mainly.

     

    Samuel seems pretty similar to Campbell in a lot of ways. I am leery of OSU players though.

  8. 1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

    Mo got heavy usage weeks 2 and 3, and more or less showcased in week 2 when Doyle was out (Burton was out too). That's the week he was 5/6 with 111 yards, and had those really nice vertical sail route catches. Doyle was back the next week, but he still had good snaps, just only 3 targets and 50 yards. In week 4 when Burton came back (we forced way too much to Burton), his snaps decreased again and only had one catch for 13 yards.

     

    As far as use, not sure Mo is capable of the short routes that Doyle is so good at. Not saying he can't, but Doyle is just very good at short route running, and getting separation. Mo's biggest flashes were more vertical routes than short or cut routes.  

     

    IMO, we have a very nice 3some of TEs, with very different skill sets. All are good at blocking. I'd just like to see more Mo on those vertical targets. That's why I'm not overly concerned about TE, or feel the need to grab an older guy like Ertz. I wouldn't complain mind you either, but just don't want to give up much capital. All about ROI, and I think we have a good 3, just need to vary their use better.

     

    The sudden shift in snaps and (more importantly) targets from MAC was surprising. They definitely started forcing Burton into the game plan. I don't know if Reich was ever even asked about...I guess with MAC hurt...it doesn't really matter.

     

    Burton had a nice game last week...but he's a dump off guy. CIN is (arguably) the worst team against TEs...pass coverage is optional for their Ss. I wish MAC could have played...would have been fun to watch. Hopefully he gets back soon.

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  9. 6 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

    And I read that their decimated offensive line got mauled by Washington Sunday. Six sacks. The opposing rush would give Swag the opportunity to showcase that speed he brags about.  

     

    His mobility would actually serve him (and DAL) well. No idea about the rest of his game though.

  10. 38 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

    Yeah. Imagine if they sign Kelly and he ends up getting them into the playoffs

     

    Oh man...if Kelly goes to DAL and has some Tony Romo type emergence and leads to them to playoffs...this place might explode. That would be fantastic to watch.

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  11. 38 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

    Good news for Taylor. I have to wonder whether it's Mack's high character or if it's him praying the Colts will value him enough to re-sign him next year. Probably quite a bit of both. Either way, glad he's putting in the effort for the team.

     

     

     

    He's collecting game checks...so you would like to think this is more of a common thing for players. I can't relate...and I am not a psychiatrist...but I would think sticking to your daily routine (as much as possible) might be really helpful during a traumatic event...especially one that might jeopardize your immediate future and keep you from playing the game you love.

     

    Except instead of weights (or whatever his regimen was)...he does rehab work...and instead of taking reps in practice or at games...he's on the sidelines watching and helping.

     

  12. No way DAL gives up Gallup for JB. But if they did...Ballard should be all over it...from an asset standpoint. Gallup is just a much more valuable player at this point...because he still has a year left on his rookie deal.

     

    If Gallup is off the table...then I would also take a 3rd round pick back instead for JB.

     

    But for the reasons that DAL is making this trade...is probably why Ballard wouldn't.

     

     

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  13. 11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

    I agree you need to take WRs regularly, but you can't take a WR in R2-4 every year. And I agree 2-4 is a good sweet spot, just not sure you can prioritize the position in those rounds ever year. Just doesn't work out logically (prioritization) or mathematically. If you say on average there are average 2.5ish WRs playing on any given down, that's roughly 11% of your starting 22. 11% of 6 (draft picks) is around 0.68 WRs per year (regardless of round), or 2 taken every three years. So let's say we skip every 3rd year, or grab a FA every 3rd year lol. Need to spread those early/mid round picks around. It's also a sweet spot for DBs, OL, and LBs.

     

    Top WR pay is expensive, but the AVG WR pay is a little under the league average. Given the changes in CFB, the influx of improved talent, and the turnover, the average has become normalized. 3T, DE, QB, LT, LG, C, CB1, OLB, etc are all the roughly the same or higher. The only positions that are still devalued under the median are MLB, S, NT, TE, and RBs. WR though seems to be trending a bit like RB lately though, especially W2 and WR3s.

     

    Here's a good look at AV by position, by round if interested. 

    paine-datalab-nfldraft1.png?w=575


    A team could skip a year here and there...and of course it’s dependent on the draft class as well (especially for which round a WR is taken). But in the course of a 5-year stretch...it should take 4 early WRs picks to build a truly strong corps...unless the first 3 are all HRs...and then you decide to pay them.

     

    But that’s pretty unlikely. Even PIT...who has a great trio...missed on a few. But by drafting so many WRs...they can potentially move on from JuJu...which will save a lot of cap space.
     

    Of course there are also trades for established talent...so that would just replace the need to draft one for that given year...ala Hopkins in ARI. 
     

    I would consider WR to be 3 of the starting 22...if that team runs 1-1 sets 2/3 or greater of the time. But 4-5 are getting good snaps typically. 
     

    All of this is to say...WR is a position I value highly. 
     

     

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  14. Ballards just needs to continue drafting a WR in rounds 2-4 every year. I think that's really how you build a good young WR corps. The attrition rate is really high to begin with...and there are so many variables you can control...so accept that some might miss...but there needs to be a constant flow of talent. Ballard has approached other positions this way...but it's especially critical with WR...where most of the talent goes early in the draft (typically gone by the end of Day 2...sometimes early into Day 3).

     

    Unfortunately, that process only began last year...and the two they have drafted are hurt...so we have to wait and see for now.

     

    But while drafting late round WRs and bringing in UDFAs is low-risk...it's a complete crap shoot and not very effective. The NFL is littered with these WRs...many that are fighting to be on a PS somewhere. In addition to the miss rate being incredibly high...it typically take a long time for them to develop and make an impact. And if they finally do make a huge impact...it's probably just in time for their 2nd deals...which most teams don't want to give WRs (because WRs are expensive).

     

    JMO...but I don't think the WR group is close to where it can (and will be) in a year or two.

     

     

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  15. I would say it's a dubious proposition at best...given some of the issues he had in college. But he certainly has the arm...and Day 3 QBs have become starters before. I just find it hard to believe he is currently Plan A for this team. They need a long-term QB solution...and they liked the guy so much that they waited until the middle of 4th round to draft him? Either Ballard has a crystal ball OR Eason was more of an opportunistic pick that someone they had to have. 

     

    And per his own words (paraphrasing)...Ballard gets (probably) one shot at this. He has to be really sure about Eason before he goes down that path...because it will require a 2-3 year commitment to Eason...during a time which the Colts have a good roster.

  16. I think JB will get a shot to compete somewhere...having Ballard and Reich as a reference certainly doesn't hurt his chances. But I don't know how realistic that chance will be. I could see him in a Tyrod Taylor situation.

     

    I can't imagine any team signing him to be the guy...ala Teddy. ..especially since the market will have other options available and will likely be depressed because of the cap decrease.

     

    It's hard to imagine a scenario where he is back in Indy...despite how much they like him. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for any party...unless Rivers is gone and he's willing to back up Eason. But that's assuming that Eason is even Plan A...and I bet he's not.

  17. 1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

    I'm in this camp. 

     

    I don't really hate any of them, but they all have holes and are inconsistent. Some are too fan boy, some don't know the game well enough, some regurgitate, some are high light kings, some are just way off the mark.

     

    Case in point. I like some of what Hicks does. Then this week though he comes out with an article pumping up Okereke. Yes, Oke's last game was improved, but he's been pretty bad for the most part this year. One or two decent games doesn't erase 4 bad ones and picking out highlights doesn't erase the really ugly plays that are ignored. I do agree he's probably better in man than zone. 

     

    Anyway, the inconsistency of the some of these guys drive me nuts. And I hate fanboys and highlight kings.

     

    Hicks isn't bad...I like him better than the other SB guys (except for TTR...but he's strictly a data guy...and that's not for most people). But those film reviews are just filler for the most part. You can make any player appear to be having a great season with 6-7 good clips. 

     

    What surprised me is that 5 people voted for Holder. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion...but yikes.

  18. 12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

    He's definitely a tweener. I'm still cautious on him. While he's got snaps in every game, he's only made stat contributions in two games (MN and Cinci), two of the worst OLs in the NFL. I'd love for him to emerge, but I'm not counting on it. AQM has looked far better at DE, if we're talking about a replacement for Autry. 

     

    Yep...the team even still uses him as a tweener...his sack against MIN was from DT. 

     

    I like AQM...but I am not really counting on either player to replace Autry. I assume there will be some type of investment into the position this offseason...at least I hope there is. You don't trade for and sign Buckner...to not put other really good talent around him. 

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  19. I know I am going to sound negative...but let's be real...it is way too early for a victory lap here. 

     

    Some context...his 1.5 sacks have come against basically bottom 5 OLs in MIN and CIN (#6 and #3 in adjusted sack rate per DVOA).

     

    More context...the sack in MIN game was against Dru Samia (33.5 PFF grade)...and the (half) sack in CIN game was mostly a coverage sack where he bull-rushed Alex Redmond (who was on the PS three weeks ago).

     

    Also, both sacks came from the intentior (on the CIN one...he did an inside stunt)...so it's not because he is playing DE.

     

    I point this context out...because that has been his career to date...beating bad OL players. When he is lined up against legit NFL OL players...especially RTs...he has really struggled for the most part...or just been invisible. But that's not a bad thing...because this is the story of most bottom-roster DL depth players...which is what Lewis is.

     

    I know most people like a comeback story...but the Lewis hype is a bit much...as if Tyquan Lewis is on some special phased approach to redemption. The local media was really driving this Lewis breakout narrative during TC...so I am not at all surprised to see someone write a follow up article like this (and since it's bye week...wouldn't be surprised if someone else does too). This writer probably had most of this written in August...was just waiting for Lewis to have a decent game so he could plug in the stats. 

     

     

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  20. 2 hours ago, stitches said:

    I don't mind us staying pat. I kind of prefer it too. I don't think we are close enough to get all in so I, too, believe it's probably better to keep the powder dry and keep building a strong roster for the long-term rather than for this season. My suggestions above were more along the lines of cheaper later round trades that we might be able to recoup if we let the player go in the off-season. But yeah... until we have our QB of the future(or we are really close to being legitimate contender) there should be zero consideration for us giving up premier draft assets for win now pieces IMO. 

     

    I would give up a 3rd round pick in the right context. Probably not a 2nd round though...unless it was for Darnold or a good young player with 2-3 years left on his rookie deal. I just assume that 1st round picks are off the table.

     

    What I hope happens is that there are bad teams selling off players now for cheap...because this offseason is going to be flush with teams trying to offload players...and the market won't be there for even later round picks. It's better to get a late round pick (and save some cash) now than play out the string in a bad season...and then have to cut that player in the offseason. Plus, it frees up snaps for young player to develop.

     

    This is the mindset I would hope the bad teams are having.

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