A8bil
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Posts posted by A8bil
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Just now, krunk said:
nonsense. You will be
We'll see. Here's what I'm seeing on his highlight tapes -- (1) rarely causes a defender to take a bad angle, which means he does not have unexpected speed (Same as James); (2) first defender past the LOS in position to tackle him, usually does, which means he has little elusiveness (same as James); and (3) time after time he gets knocked off his feet at the end of his runs with unexpected hits and with Hines not preparing to drive through the tackle, which means he has poor vision on defenders. Mark this post. It will prove true.
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Reminds me of LaMichael James. Speed wont translate to NFL, not enough quick twitch to be a Sproles-type player, not very elusive (man does he take some hard hits at end of runs--he would be better served to learn to finish his runs strongly so he doesn't take so much punishment). Mack will not not be challenged by Hines unless Mack mentally cant stop his stutter step behind the line or his fumble problems. There's your hot take. Revisit me mid-season and have me eat crow if I'm wrong. (I wont be. ;))
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6 minutes ago, BOTT said:
You are simply ignoring other factors in a teams success or lack thereof.
the cowboys had injury problems on their offensive line and they didn't play as well....and not coincidentally, neither did Zeke. Plus, defenses had a year's worth of tape on Dak.
yes, Gurley played well....but he didn't make them elite (as you claim). The Rams had a total coaching change. They brought elite coaching on both sides of the ball. Goff went from people claiming he was a bust to pro bowl and that had far more to do with Sean McVay than Todd Gurley.
the jags brought in new coaches and a new philosophy with Tom coughlin. They also brought in two stud defenders in Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye. Fournette is a solid player, but his 3.9 ypc is far from the reason the Jaguars became a playoff team.
Good points across the board. The only point I would make is that when the Rams finally got McVay, the fact they had Goff and Gurley made the Rams dangerous. In a good, balanced offense star players will shine.
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It's strange watching Barkley highlights...very few clips of him running with power. He's built to be a power runner, but almost every clip is of him being elusive and running away from defenders. Definitely has speed and is elusive.
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10 minutes ago, jskinnz said:
Gore has beat father time to this point. I don't think the Colts are willing to bet Gore can hold him off for another year.
I don't think it is much of a bet. Gore is not going to have a host of teams lining up to sign him. He'll take a team friendly contract or none at all, and he'll be cut mid-season if he is no longer productive. The bigger issue is whether a back up/occasional starter RB who doesn't play special teams can justify a roster spot, particularly if Reich adopts a pro set, which is Rathman's strength. The team will have to sign a dedicated FB if he does, which means one fewer spot available for a RB who doesn't play special teams.
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Rathman is a very good hire. He likes a pro set offense...so not sure what that means in terms of personnel. If it signals Hyde coming to Indy, it's a mixed bag. Hyde is not much quicker than Gore and is definitely not more elusive. He runs violently and is prone to injury as a result. Signing hyde probably means a roster shift that includes a FB and a back up for when Hyde inevitably goes down from injury, but who knows.
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11 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:
Sharps' tweet suggested Gore is fine in quarters 1-3 and wears down in the 4th. He still has some gas in the tank... which is why I say the only reason I see us bringing him back is to help Mack develop another year and if he greatly lessens his work load (i.e., becomes a 2 down back or a rotational back). He has already stated multiple times he knows he's going to have to share the load to remain in this league.It could be that Gore was wearing down...but another point made by his tweets is that the offense became so predictable in the 4th Qtr that everyone knew just by the players on the field whether the play was going to Gore. How can a back succeed with a mediocre line and a defense knowing he's getting the ball? How can you differentiate between Gore wearing down, and simply having no where to run because the D is ready for the play?
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The last team that succeeded with so little imagination on offense was the 83 Redskins with the Hogs and Riggins. YOu have to be able to impose your will on a defense to be able to succeed telegraphing your plays...it's not a winning formula in today's NFL.
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3 minutes ago, dw49 said:
Brissett did make some boneheaded plays throughout the year. What's above is more that issue than lack of imagination in the game plan. They just plain and simply did not trust him.
when an offense is that predictable, it is more than just lacking trust in your QB. You can run out of many formations and personnel combinations. When you telegraph so heavily that you are looking at run vs. pass or vice versa, the defense can adjust personnel, shoot gaps, etc. It's really a problem.
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And...fans wondered why the offense struggled. Handicapped by their own coaches. SMH
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14 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
A lot of times speed is not as important as technic.
Yes, use of hands to keep tackles from locking up is really important, but if you look at most of Chubbs highlights, his pass rushing is a speed outside rush to get around a tackle. He's gotta show more than that in the pros. I'm also not convinced on his run D. He makes a lot of tackles by blitzing inside the tackle to the B gap. Looks spectacular when he guesses right and the RB is hitting the same hole. But, the best edge setters hold up the tackle and break off the block to shut down the B or C gap. This may just be a byproduct of the highlight films, but few show him actually setting the edge on run plays. Chubb is bigger and better, but he kinda reminds me of Corey Lemonier who came out of Auburn....looked like a total stud in college, but his game never developed beyond a speed rush and he's now either out of the league or on its fringes. Chubb will be better than that...but #3 pick better? Not convinced, yet.
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3 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
I have no different opinion with your statements but with the Colts right now is who to take? Our defense has been so poor across the board because we have no pass rush. We let less that average QBs look like pro bowl QBs because we get no pressure on them. We have lost games to back up QBs because they have all day in their pocket and just pick us apart. No pass rush and very poor linebacker play has killed us.
Mathis was the last player we had on the roster that made the opposing QB even give a thought on where he was at on the field. Getting that cow bell RB on this roster will not change the fact we cant just keep out scoring teams. It may work in the regular season but it will not work in the playoffs. The last time we had a cow bell RB was Edge. The only ring he is wearing is a gift from Irsay.
That said, I'm not convinced that Chubb merits a high pick. Granted, I haven't seen him much, but I'm not impressed. His pass rush is mostly just a speed rush to the outside. he's not fast enough to rely on that alone at the NFL level.
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3 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
I have no different opinion with your statements but with the Colts right now is who to take? Our defense has been so poor across the board because we have no pass rush. We let less that average QBs look like pro bowl QBs because we get no pressure on them. We have lost games to back up QBs because they have all day in their pocket and just pick us apart. No pass rush and very poor linebacker play has killed us.
Mathis was the last player we had on the roster that made the opposing QB even give a thought on where he was at on the field. Getting that cow bell RB on this roster will not change the fact we cant just keep out scoring teams. It may work in the regular season but it will not work in the playoffs. The last time we had a cow bell RB was Edge. The only ring he is wearing is a gift from Irsay.
I'm a big believer in having a dominant pass rusher if you can find one. Few QBs excel when under pressure. A great pass rush makes the entire defensive secondary look better than what it is. I was one who thought that Casserly's choice of drafting Mario Williams instead of Bush was a no brainer for the same reason.
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2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
I never said Bell wasn't a good RB. He is the Steelers bell cow so he works and does what he is paid to do. But IMO there are a few who I would take over him because of their home run ability. That was my only point. No more, no less.
The thing about having a cow bell RB is most teams that have them don't do well in the playoffs or when that type of RB gets injured it shuts the team down. Teams that make a RBBC work are the teams who win in the playoffs and wear rings.
I think it is hard to draw conclusions like "teams that make a RBBC work" are those that win. There is only 1 super bowl winner each year, and only 52 total since 1962, and over the past 15 years, the winningest team -- the Patriots -- have been succeeding with RBBC, but that doesn't mean they are winning because they have RBBC. They are winning because they have a great coaching staff, they are consistently very good on defense, they cheat (LOL) and they have the greatest QB of all time.
I think there are lots of examples historically of teams that have ridden a cow bell type back to the championship, the most recent being Seattle with Lynch (but there has been teams like the Broncos with Davis, the Rams with Faulk, etc). But I take your point that if that back goes down with injury, a team built around a cow bell back with just an okay QB will have problems winning. Which I think identifies the issue. If in this salary cap era the signing of an RB prevents signing a franchise QB, the team will have difficulty winning in the event of injury to that back. In other words, its easier to win with a franchise QB and a RBBC run game, than it is with a franchise RB and a QBBC. If you have to choose one, you have to go QB every time. IMO, if you can get a great RB at a good price, when you already have your FB QB, you have your best chance of winning.
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On 2/19/2018 at 11:00 AM, crazycolt1 said:
Did you know as great as you build Bell up to be the most TDs he has run for in a season is 9?
2017 RB stats
Murray-8TDs
Hyde-8TDs
Gordan-8Tds
Howard-9TDs
Ingram-12TDs
Bell averaged 4.02 Yds per carry.
There were 15 other RBs in the league who averaged better than him in average Yds per game.
Bells longest run of the season was 27 yards. That is telling me he is not a good as runner in open space than 95% of all the runners in the NFL. Only Gore and Miller's longest runs were shorter than 27 yards.
Is he really going to be worth breaking the bank for the Steelers?
I think those that discount Bell are making the same mistake that people judging Gore have done. Bell is not fast. He has great vision, sets up blocks, accelerates through creases and rarely takes a square hit...sound familiar? Bell has the style to run for a long time, just as Gore has done. The problem for Gore and Bell throughout their careers, is that they don't have that homerun speed so breakaway TDs are not in their repertoire. Nor is pile driving. Down in short yardage situations, where the lanes get much tighter and it is difficult for the o-line to get push or create creases, neither Gore's nor Bell's style are the most effective. They're not going to dive over the top or drive a LB backward..., but that doesn't mean that they are not extremely valuable as an every down back. I posted this previously in another thread, but the game of football is one of strategy and design. A first down run is supposed to get the offense 4-5 yds, leaving 2nd 5-6, which gives the option to either run or pass and keeps the defense honest. Guys like Bell and Gore are great at setting up th offense that way. Sure, there are other speed burners who have the (very) occasional homeruns, but if they are consistently leaving the offense in 2nd and long situations, the advantage immediately goes to the defense as they know a pass is upcoming and they can sell out for the pass. Throw out the stats and judge these guys in the context of the game and you'll appreciate why Bell is such a valuable commodity.
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15 hours ago, Flash7 said:
Hey, A8bil, thanks for the detailed reply. I'll reply back hopefully without coming back as argumentative, especially since I agree with almost everything you wrote....
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Good post...agreed, Mack is a boom or bust type player. I guess I'm just not a big fan of those types of players. They're fun for fantasy stats, but my sense is that they are rarely part of a winning formula. BTW, I think Mack can be a power runner in the same way Gore has been. Gore didn't move piles, he found holes and creases in them and got yardage where it was available. Sure, he ran over his share of DBs and a few LBs, but it was his dedication to finding yardage within the play called that made him so consistent and good throughout his career. I think Mack or whoever replaces Gore can do that. I think it is a mindset more than anything.
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6 hours ago, Flash7 said:
In 2017, Gore rushed 261 times for 961 yards (3.7 yards per average) with 3 TDs and 1 receiving TD.
In 2017, Mack rushed 93 times for 358 yards (3.8 yards per average) with 3 TDs and 1 receiving TD.
It's time we move on and give other running backs the bulk of the carries. It's better for the team.
The problem with this view is that it is simplistic and ignores how a game is played. Teams don't win or lose based on comparing year end YPC stats... . For as much as everyone complains about Gore's lack of homerun ability, he at least was leaving the offense in planned outcomes. First down runs often went for 3.5-4 yards, leaving 2nd and 6-6.5, which is what the offense wants. They can then run or pass on 2nd down, and the defense cannot key on either.T ake out the 49ers game and Mack had a poor season, rushing only 3.17 ypc. He had some big runs, but more often than not, Mack left the offense in 2nd and 10+, which automatically puts the offensive in a hole because 2nd down has to be a pass, and allows the defense to focus on pass rush. It throws the entire offense off. For a OC, having a RB who consistently puts the offense in a position the play is supposed to create is important for the passing offense. In this sense, Gore getting half a yard less per carry than the top backs is not that important,...it's more important that he's getting positive yardage. Mack has to be a more consistent runner in gaining yards to be an every down back...and that's in addition to pass blocking issues, durability, power running, etc. He needs to get 3-4 yards consistently, and throw in the occasional big play when the defense breaks down.
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9 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
All this is true but ignoring things like his inability to get along with people over him and treating grown men like college kids can't be overlooked. JIm just doesn't play well with others unless he is in control.
i don't see you two disagreeing. i think the point is that SF was on the cusp of greatness when JH arrived. They had the best LBs in football. they had one of the best offensive lines in football. They had two great TEs. They had great down linemen on D. They had Gore. They were just missing decent coaching. JH brought that with Roman and Fangio, but the collapse was equal parts JH not getting along with people, and the roster falling apart. Iupati played injured. Davis went out injured. Interior line had injuries and no consistency. Walker was gone. Vance McDonald sucked as a replacement. aldon smith was deep into his troubles. Justin Smith was retiring. carlos rogers left. Bowman was out. Willis played injured for only 6 games. Worse of all...the league started figuring out Kaepernick's weaknesses and prevented him from exploiting his strengths. With less than a stellar roster, the 49ers were just pedestrian under JH, which under strong leadership would have held things together. But, it instead revealed their fundamental lack of character. They started infighting and had constant locker room leaks of discontent, etc.. All of this magnified JH's poor relationship with management. It was a mess.
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If McDaniels is HC, Barkley becomes an unlikely choice, IMO, if he's anything like Belichick. He may want to resign Gore.
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49 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:
uh, Emmit Smith?
He was just an average athlete with average speed, but he was a tough guy with really good vision who got behind Larry Allen, Nate Newton & co. and got more yards than anyone ever has.
We have a chance to land the best lineman or pass rusher in the draft......our two biggest weaknesses.....and people want to pass on them and draft a RB?
You build in the trenches, the sooner we take heed to that advice, the better.
You're not giving Emmit enough due...he had a great jump hop that allowed him to move laterally well in traffic to get to open space. No, he was not a speed burner, but he was quick and ran with power through the line.
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The word "generational" back is used too frequently to describe good backs. That said, there are some truths. If you do find a truly "generational" back, you are set at the position often for 8-10 years. That back can become a focal point of the offense and carry the team. While fans are prone to labeling many backs generational, when you get truly consensus RB picks projected at the top of the draft -- like AP, Gurley, Zeke, Fournette -- the success rate is pretty high. Barkley seems to be in that realm. Still, even a great back will struggle behind a bad line and in a bad offense (see gurley last year). A strong o-line is very important for success, but drafting a OL player in the top of the draft seems like much more of an uncertainty than many other positions. It's been about since about 2011 when Dallas drafted Tyron Smith that a top OL prospect fulfilled his potential. Drafting 3, the player should be a "can't miss" type player.
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O-line definitely needs work, but a serviceable line can be obtained in free agency or through the draft if you make it a priority. Generational talent at the RB position comes up rarely, however. And, those that have the talent remain in the league a long time...AP, Marshawn, Gore, ...they don't get unseeded because they are just that much better than a RBC type player.
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Not sure of the reasoning behind the posts that say Colts have more pressing issues than RB.... . colts have injured Turbin, Winn, Mack and Ferguson under contract....which of those is a proven commodity who can be an everydown back and expected to finish the season?
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10 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:
You use to call out other posters if they twist your words Superman. I didn't say I wrote him off. What I said was, that I think he is not good enough (yet) between the tackles. I could bring stats like yards after contact in this gap or that gap, to the left or to the right, but all will tell the same which we all saw with our own eyes: Mack couldn't get those extra yards after contact, in traffic between the tackles, what Gore could get consistently.
Will he learn that? We'll see. My gut feeling watching 30+ years of NFL football is, that if someone has got the knack of finding those holes, that's noticeable right from the beginning, but I can be wrong. I wish I am wrong.
But even if I am not, I wont write him off. He still can be a usable piece as change back. But not the bell cow.
I would have said the same thing 7 years ago, but when the 49ers brought in Kendall Hunter, his running style was a lot like Mack's...sweeps with one cut up field. Took him about 1.5 years to learn from Gore how to run between the tackles, but after awhile it became hard to tell the difference between the two. Maybe Mack won't learn how to read the blocks developing, but I think he can given how hunter developed. Too bad he blew out his achilles.
Wilkins vs Hines
in Colts Football
Posted
I don't disagree with this. But, from what I have seen of Mack, Mack has both elusiveness and speed that takes defenders by surprise. He had quite a few long runs last year (against NFL defenses) where he just out ran the angles taken by the defense. Hines isn't really doing it even in college, so I doubt he'll do it in the pros. I think Mack may be the more dangerous player in space. Again, just look at James' highlight tapes and tell me why he didn't make an impact in the pros and then tell me why Hines in any different.