rsrobinson
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Posts posted by rsrobinson
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A lot of claims there but I notice you didn't provide any stats to back them up. No problem, I'll help you out. Let's take a look at how each quarterback did in obvious passing situations. For the purposes of this discussion I'll use 3rd and 4+ and 4th and 4+ as situations where the defense is expecting a pass. Here are the career regular season numbers for each of them in passing situations:And lower volume of pass attempts are likely to be higher quality throws because the defense doesn't expect it and has shifted it's attention elsewhere. Wilson didn't throw it better or make a better decision. . . he just got a much better situation to throw under.
In other words when Lynch has pounded the rock 10 times and gained about 5 yards each time and he's killing the clock and your offense has been sitting on the bench for the last 7 minutes of game time, it's pretty darn easy for Wilson to find an open receiver deep when everyone is focused on stopping Lynch.
In fact half of the idea of running an offense is trying to bait your opponent into selling out to stop one thing and then doing the exact opposite successfully.
The way you know a good/great player from just a decent one is the good or great player can still do his job effectively even when everyone knows what he's gonna do. AP had such a great season in 2012 partially because he was gaining yards. . . a lot of yards even while defenses where laughing at Christian Ponder's pitiful attempts to throw the football, knew the ball was going to Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson was still getting first down after first down after first down and moving the football. It's not like anyone playing the Vikings was saying . . . "uh oh we better send a lot of guys into coverage. . . Ponder's the quarterback."
Same thing. . . Calvin Johnson is a great receiver precisely because he still catches a lot of balls and puts up a lot of yards even though EVERYONE knows that the ball is going to Calvin Johnson and they better double team Calvin Johnson.
Acting like Wilson's throws are the same as a lot of other quarterbacks is like pretending that Bill Gate's son graduating from college is just as laudable as the son of a McDonald's worker from Detroit graduating from college.
Wilson 193-325, 59.4%, 2662 yards, 18 TDs, 10 Ints, 8.2 Y/A, 91.3 passer rating
Luck 197-381, 51.7%, 2888 yards, 21 TDs, 11 Ints, 7.6 Y/A, 83.1 passer rating
As you can see, Wilson continues to be the more efficient quarterback even in situations where the defense is expecting a pass and he does this despite the fact that he regularly plays against stronger defenses than Luck does.
The insinuation that Wilson does not and cannot perform well when the other team is expecting a pass is simply factually wrong. The latest example of that was the playoff game against Carolina the other day where Wilson was 8-8 for 199 yards on 3rd down and threw three TD passes on 3rd and long situations.
I don't know where you got the idea that it's easy for Wilson to pass because defenses focus all their attention on Lynch because that's laughable. Wilson produced 72% of the Seahawks total offense this year with his arm and legs and had more total yards this season than Tom Brady did and you think defenses aren't paying attention to stopping him? He is a legit dual threat QB and is a matchup nightmare that defenses must account for on every play. Jeff Fisher described it as like having to defend an extra player on Seattle's offense.
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of course I'm serious. I am also intellectually correct. You cant be successful for 14 straight years with a QB in his late 30s unless things are manipulated.
That's absurd.
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Not to sound crass, but what are Russell's ratings when he attempts more than 40 passes in a single playoff game? I'll wait.
Stats are fun to manipulate such as your second example which requires 150 attempts to qualify. This parameter was no doubt due to the fact that Russell has exactly 150 attempts in 6 playoff games. That equals a very pedestrian 25 attempts per game.
Basically in 6 career playoff games Russell has 1,364 yds & 10 TDs in 150 attempts. His averages per game are 227, 1.6, & 25 respectively.
Luck on the other hand has 1,703 yds & 9 TDs in 227 attempts over 5 playoff games. His averages per game are 341, 1.8, & 45.
It is delusional to think that Russell is above the achievements of Montana, Brees, Starr, Rodgers, etc... As if the inclusion of Sanchez, Romo, and Thiesmann doesn't signify the irrelevance of this particular rating.
There's nothing pedestrian about 25 pass attempts, especially if that is part of the philosophy and game planning of a team. Pass attempts are a measure of volume not quality. If passing attempts was a measure of quality Jay Cutler would be a superstar. Passing yardage is also largely a product of the volume of passes thrown. Luck has thrown for more yards because he has thrown more passes but Wilson averages more yards per pass thrown (8.97 - 7.50.).
And I notice you failed to mention Luck's ten interceptions and "pedestrian" 77.8 passer rating in the playoffs. Wilson, by contrast, has thrown just one pick in six playoff games and that was on a last second Hail Mary.
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Highest career regular season passer ratings
1. Aaron Rodgers 106.0
2. Russell Wilson 98.6
3. Tony Romo 97.6
4. Peyton Manning 97.5
5. Steve Young 96.8
6. Tom Brady 95.9
7. Phillip Rivers 95.7
8. Drew Brees 95.4
9. Ben Roethlisberger 93.9
10. Kurt Warner 93.7
Highest career playoff passer ratings (150 or more attempts)
1. Russell Wilson 109.6
2. Aaron Rodgers 105.3
3. Bart Starr 104.8
4. Kurt Warner 102.8
5. Drew Brees 100.7
6. Joe Montana 95.6
7. Mark Sanchez 94.3
8. Ken Anderson 93.5
9. Tony Romo 93.0
10. Joe Thiesmann 91.4
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It's a lot easier for a qb to succeed when you have a rushing attack that defenses put 9 men in the box to try and stop and when you have a great HC and maybe the Best D since the `85 Bears!
Nobody puts nine men in the box against the Seahawks and Wilson is a major component of the success of the running game. Not only did he gain almost 900 yards rushing this year but defenses are forced to account for him on every play which helps open up lanes for Lynch.
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IMHO, he's in the perfect place.
I don't know how many other places he could be successful at.
Yeah, he's just a smart, accurate, mobile QB with a great work ethic, who never loses his cool, rarely makes mistakes and plays his best in big games. Yeah, not many places Wilson could succeed with those qualities. Because he's short and all.
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How do you hope his contract goes down? How many years? How much?
Oh I don't know. Maybe $22-24M per year for six but that's just guessing. I don't think he'll do a deal like Kaepernick did where the team can essentially cut him after any season and get out of it.
The Seahawks are actually in pretty good shape on the cap for 2015, even if they extend Wilson and Bobby Wagner as expected. 2016 is when they will start feeling the pinch but a rise in the cap should give them a little breathing room. They'll need to keep drafting well and developing young players like they have been, though.
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He was phenomenal last night. At one point he was 8 for 8 on third down conversions. Not sure how he finished. Most don't think his ceiling is as high Luck but I think he proved this season that he can and will improve.
He finished 8 for 8 with three TD passes on 3rd down. I was at the game and Cam Newton played pretty well for stretches but his mistakes killed the Panthers. His two picks easily could have been four or five. Wilson, on the other hand, never threw a ball a defender had a chance to make a play on.
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Yep. If you include his rushing yards Russell Wilson produced more total yards than Tom Brady did this year and wasn't far behind Aaron Rodgers. And the fact that he did this while turning the ball over only 7 times all season (7 Ints, 0 fumbles lost) is remarkable for a QB still in only his third season in the league. On top of that he's now 5-1 in the playoffs and has thrown only one pick in 152 pass attempts, and that was on a last second Hail Mary.To be fair, he also only threw seven interceptions, rushed for 849 yards, and had an additional six rushing touchdowns. He plays on a team where the only real weapons are Lynch, the defense, and himself. I think he probably deserves whatever they're going to throw at him...but I hate to think what that's going to do for Luck's deal!
Wilson and Luck have completely separated themselves now from the other young QBs in the league so both will get record contracts when the time comes.
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Doesn't have to be "bad boy" in the criminal sense, but can also in the "dysfunctional to team chemistry" sense.
QB: Johnny Manziel
RB: Ray Rice
RB/FB: LaGarrette Blount
WR: Josh Gordon
WR: Justin Blackmon
WR: Titus Young
TE: Aaron Hernandez
T: Jonathan Martin
G: Marshal Yanda (just slightly dirty)
C: Mike Pouncey
G: Richie Incognito
T: John Jerry (another member of the Martin-Incognito saga)
DE: Greg Hardy
DT: Ndamukong Suh
DT: Marcelle Dareus
DE: Jason Babin
LB: James Harrison
LB: Vontaze Burfict
LB: Terrell Suggs
CB: Richard Sherman
CB: Cortland Finnegan
S: DJ Swearinger
S: John Boyett
K: Sebastian Janikowski
I'm not sure how Richard Sherman meets your definition of a bad boy. His coaches and teammates love him so he's not dysfunctional to team chemistry and he's never had a whiff of legal trouble off the field.
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After seven years and 4000 passes a quarterback is what he is. In Flacco's case he's an above average quarterback who can beat you with the deep ball but is also relatively inaccurate and makes poor decisions at times. I don't buy that Flacco suddenly transforms into a different quarterback during the playoffs. If you look at his stats over his last five playoff games the only thing that jumps off the page as being radically different is a 13/0 TD/Int ratio. For a guy who has a career TD pct of 4.0 and Int pct of 2.5 this is an aberration that is most likely due to a small sample size and is unsustainable. The more playoff games that Flacco plays the more likely he is to regress to the mean and I wouldn't be surprised if that regression begins against the Patriots.
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How do you feel about a potential match up with Dallas? They are really hot right now and beat Seattle in Seattle. Not sure they win at GB but if they did then the champ game would be them. Would you feel better about GB? Have to think you would handle then they way you did in week 1.
I don't take any game for granted in the NFL. There's far less talent disparity between teams than people think, especially between good teams. Unlike college, everyone has elite athletes and a couple of bad turnovers can flip a game no matter who is playing or what their records are.
Having said that, the Seahawks are a more balanced and complete team than either the Cowboys or Packers and with home field advantage they should be able to beat either of them if they play their game. You have to respect Dallas' running game and Romo's passing ability but I've seen the Seahawks' defense rise to the challenge before and stuff an offense that had been looking unstoppable up to that point (the Saints and Broncos last year, for instance).
When Dallas played in Seattle earlier in the year the Seahawks weren't playing very well at the time. Wagner, Chancellor, and Maxwell were all playing hurt and none of them played anywhere near their usual effectiveness. The offense was also a mess. They were having locker room issues with Percy Harvin who wanted the offense to feature him and they were running a bunch of bubble screens and jet sweeps to try to get him the ball in space while Marshawn Lynch only carried the ball 10 times. When Harvin pouted on the sidelines for some perceived slight and refused to go into the game for the final drive with the game on the line that was the last straw and they traded him a couple of days later. After that they started getting back to the type of offense that helped win them the Super Bowl featuring Lynch and a power running game along with Wilson's efficient passing and running. Since Harvin was traded the Hawks have gone 9-2 and their offensive production has improved significantly. Addition by subtraction. Over the past six weeks the defense has also been the healthiest its been since probably the first game against the Packers and is playing as well or better than it did last year.
As you know from how the Pats' undefeated season ended up no team is invincible in the NFL, but the way the Seahawks are playing right now I like their chances in both the NFC playoffs and the Super Bowl.
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So did Ryan Leaf...number 2 in fact.
Ryan Leaf had legit NFL talent he just turned out to be a head case with no work ethic. Tebow had the work ethic but not the talent. So far Manziel looks like he has neither the talent or the work ethic.
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You don't have to sit in the video room and live and breathe football to the point of obsession to be good. That's asinine.
You do if you're an undersized quarterback trying to make it in the league. That's what Russell Wilson did.
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Actually the goal for NFL teams is to NOT get a year older every year. The 49ers had a disastrous draft in 2012 and not a single player from it is left in the organization. The 2013 draft hasn't been great either so far outside of Eric Reid. The 49ers are getting diminishing returns from their aging vets and haven't drafted enough good young players to replace them.Everyone in the NFL will be a year older next year...
The Seahawks, by contrast, actually got younger this year. Their average age for the Super Bowl was 25.79 while the average age of their roster at the beginning of this season was 25.64.
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Wow, that's insane. I would love to experience that stadium's atmosphere
Yeah it's nuts there, especially during the playoffs.
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Dallas will probably have to win in both Lambeau and Seattle to make the Super Bowl and I don't see that happening. I'm a Seahawks homer but they are actually playing better now than they were at the end of last season so I like their chances of getting back to it. In the AFC I think the Patriots are the team to beat.
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The niners have a great blend of vet and young talent. Not sure what their cap situation is heading into next year but they are by far the best HC position for any potential candidate.
They do have some good young talent but they also have some tough personnel issues to deal with. Justin Smith may retire, Gore and Boldin are reaching the end of their careers, Vernon Davis' productivity has fallen off a cliff, Crabtree was mediocre this year just like Sherman said he was, Aldon Smith is one more arrest away from being cut or on indefinite suspension, no one knows how strong Bowman will be coming off that injury, the offensive line play has deteriorated, and their high paid QB of the future regressed substantially this year. They could have a bounce back season next year but if the Rams and Cardinals can find competent quarterbacks they could also easily end up in the cellar of the NFC West. If that happens then Jed York's popularity will reach Daniel Snyder levels in SF.
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Suh is a dirty player and there's no doubt he stepped on Rodgers intentionally but I don't have a problem with this ruling. If it was the regular season then a one game suspension is well deserved, but for the playoffs I think this would be unfair to the rest of the Lions players and fans, especially since they only make the playoffs about once a decade. I'm sure the NFL will have the referees keeping a close eye on him and he'll get a quick ejection if he tries anything similar during the playoffs and I'm sure Suh knows it too. Fining the hell out of him while still giving the Lions a fair shot to win is the right way to go, IMO.
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Oh please, Miami and Buffalo were in the hunt for the playoffs right to the end, so do act like the AFC East was just 6 easy wins for the Pats.. it was a very competitive division, just because they missed the playoffs barely while Detroit made it doesn't make green bays strength of schedule impressive
Brady blew the doors off of Detroit if you don't remember.
Pats had a 6 game gauntlet of teams that many thought they would go 3-3 through and instead they went 5-1, blowing the doors off of top ranked teams and division leaders, only losing to green bay by 2 pts on the road in a game that was decided by the last team to possess the ball
Brady's numbers and ranking #1 on offense with his weapons, and completely annihilating a gauntlet of division leaders and playoff teams was nothing short of impressive
The Patriots had a .517 strength of schedule and a .487 strength of victory which are both very good. The SOS would rank fourth among all playoff teams and the SOV is second only to Seattle's .513 among playoff teams. The Pats played a legit schedule.
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It's hard to argue that any defensive player, no matter how great, is more valuable than a top quarterback. Still, I wouldn't mind seeing Watt win it just for a change of pace. Otherwise it might as well be called the Most Valuable Offensive Player award. I'm pretty sure Rodgers will win it, though. If Watt was a member of a dominant defensive unit on a team that was a Super Bowl contender I think that would push him over the edge, but the Texans are neither of those.
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ESPN has a playoff standings page that lists strength of schedule and strength of victory for each team. In general, the NFC West and AFC West had the toughest schedules since they played each other. Oakland had the toughest schedule of all since they didn't have the benefit of playing themselves.
The Colts had a SOS of .479 which was one of the weaker schedules in the league and a strength of victory of only .372 which is the second weakest of any playoff team ahead of only Carolina. So, yes, they did benefit from playing in the AFC South.
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They might try to trade Cutler but there's no way they will release him. Too big a cap hit and there aren't any good quarterbacks out there to replace him with. I doubt they would get more than a lower round pick for him but that might be worth it just to dump his salary. They would still be in quarterback hell but that's better than being in both quarterback hell AND cap hell.
What are the chances Peyton goes to Niners?
in NFL General
Posted
I don't think Manning would make it through a full season in the NFC West which is full of fast, physical defenses who get after the passer.