BronxColtNYC
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Posts posted by BronxColtNYC
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I love this assessment. Using free agency as an extension of the draft. It's pretty clever. Based proven talent, each of our major FA signings would in fact be 1st round picks this year. And they were all paid accordingly without crippling the franchises pocket book.. Now we use the real draft to further supplement this roster and the monster building continues.[/quote
Especially seeing as none of the FA signings are immune to competition, it will push these under the radar FA to win their spot. No stars, means no incumbents with the incoming FA. They all have to win their job.
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Yes, the combo of large signing bonuses and escalating base are a cap killer - you are spot on - they force you to carry players past the point where you'd otherwise cut them. Unfortunately, that means the signing bonus/salary guarantees will remain as a negotiated feature of elite player contracts - handcuffs. This brings us full circle to the off-season we are having. Grigs was smart to avoid players which could demand those guarantees. Its when you have players producing on your team at an elite level that we will struggle to avoid the guarantees which cripple. It really doesn't matter what form the guarantee takes and players/agents know it. Even if those players produce like Steelers not Jets, eventually those guarantees will get you if try to keep players through the end of their useful years. Belichek has erred on the side of early exits, but one also has to wonder if a Richard Seymour, who has played at a pretty high level for the Raiders, would have helped them close the deal - the exact decision all GM's struggle with. In real life, mature teams will become cap strapped more than likely because it takes a lot of guaranteed money to retain stars.
None of this is guaranteed to work 100%. It's not full proof, but it's a path not alot of GM's take and KEEP. I believe Grigson is implementing the static cap. It's interesting that you bring up the Pats and keeping players. You could argue that Grigson, with the fan favorite cuts, has done the same. I'll hold out until I sew him do the same with 1 of his guys. But you bring up a fantastic point.
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Absolutely OP.
Thank you for validating my thoughts and a lot of others that have believed Girgson has done everything to set the team up for greatness, short and long term.
I felt it was important for some posters to know the extent at which Grigson is helping this franchise. Especially those who don't believe in his tactics, although they are entitled to their opinion, that they know all the facts and numbers. Colts fans should feel very comfortable with the direction of the franchise.
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A great deal of guaranteed money is future salary, or triggered guarantees. What's really hurting is the signing bonus + the increasing base salaries, guaranteed or not. Roster bonuses solve part of that problem, and make it easier to balance out future salaries. And the way most of our contracts are set up will make it easier for us to use roster bonuses on some of our bigger contracts, particularly for the quarterback.
The advantageous factor that some people don't see that with the static cap, Grigson could maintain a carry over of 25-40 million every offseason. He can keep adding young,underrated talent to the club, while still paying our stars. Obviously with more stars we sign or re-sign, our cap will take a hit but like @superman stated, if we pay most guaranteed bonus upfront, you don't necessarily have to count that against the cap in successive years. That's what Grigson did with a lot of the contracts, which is why the prorated bonus maintains so low. It also eliminates high dead money because bonus will already be paid (unpaid guaranteed money goes against the cap). Grigson can keep cap static yet maximize carry over with declining cap hit aka frontloaded contracts.
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It will absolutely work if they draft well - as you point out.
I looked at signing bonuses forward and backward while running scenarios pre-free agency. I hate the way they mortgage the future. Then I realized that if you factor in the cap carryover, the signing bonuses aren't the real problem. The lack of discipline not to spend the cap savings is the problem. Money is money. Still, your proposed position on roster bonuses makes a lot more sense to me to keep things level or declining. The wildcard with maturing rosters is guaranteed money which vets command at premier levels of achievement. That problem remains.
He sees the light!!!! Lol
I'm grateful for @ztboiler, @superman, and everybody else contributing to probably the most intellectual thread I've seen. hese threads keep us informed and only make colts fandom that much more exciting.
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I did a dead money chart a few weeks before free agency, here: http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/15416-current-colts-roster-list-with-salaries/?p=411560
Breaks down our cap penalties and our June 1 options as well. But I haven't updated it to include any of our free agent signings. I'm going to wait until we sign our draft picks.
Good idea. Feel free to merge.
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Satele will never see this money if his play doesn't improve!
Satele will never see this money if his play doesn't improve!
I agree, no way Grigson pays him 5 mil next year. This may be his last year as a colt.
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You are still going to have to sign draft picks & undrafted free agents this year.
In my numbers, I carried over a projected 3 mil. Sorry, I should've stated as much.
I think we have close to
9mil left-6 mil for picks/emergency signings=3 mil.
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I agree with the bolded. You get what you pay for.
I also agree that, historically, teams have mortgaged the future, but they've done so primarily with signing bonuses. If my assumption that there is no restriction on how large of a Year 1 roster bonus you can give a player, then it would disappoint me if 2015-16 comes around, we're sitting on $50m in cap space, and we don't dump as much of Luck's bonus as possible into that Year 1. And with a somewhat static cap for the next few years, and with $5m in cap rollover for the next three seasons, plus a cap that's expected to start going up around that time, we could very easily have $50m in cap space.
The real key is going to be to draft well. I've been a very vocal defender of Bill Polian in the past, but when you look at his last five drafts, we didn't get very many big contributors, almost no quality starters. That led to us overpaying to keep guys like Kelvin Hayden and Gary Brackett. Didn't help that Bob Sanders couldn't perform, or that Dallas Clark had a rash of injuries that essentially made him useless, and so on. If we draft well, we'll be able to walk away from our own guys who might price themselves out. James Laurinitis instead of Donald Brown allows us to walk away from Gary Brackett, etc..
The jury is still out on Grigson, but the early indications and early returns are very positive. Doesn't hurt that he lucked into Luck (get it??), but the rest of his moves and his long term vision appear to be solid.
This ^ let's credit the great start but wait a few more years before we call him parcells
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We agree, but reality is that it is much easier to accomplish on a spreadsheet. The Ravens and Steelers (even Colts of old) didn't get into trouble chasing pretty girls. They found it expensive to keep the girls they have who made them the men that they are. Pick your poison, it is the same in every walk of life. Are we still talking about football??
I'm excited to see how it plays out. The team building, not the girls to men thing.
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Pay as you go is my hope, and I too believe it is possible. Paying your QB really isn't the issue to me. That money should be lopped off your available cap and you build your team with the rest.
My concern is that history says that the professionals have all mortgaged the future while striving in the present. It must be awfully hard to avoid in real life.
It can work if Grigson continues the model of signing solid starters, declining cap hit, building through the draft, and not breaking the bank on big name guys.
Every GM says they will do all of these things, but reality is GM's chase the pretty girls.
Grigson said he was bringing this model to Indy, He's actually following through with it.
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I agree with the premise, insofar as a GM will weigh the pros and cons of cap flexibility vs. adding/retaining key players. And having a hard cap, every team will have to make tough decisions about who they sign, who they keep, who they release, etc.
But what Bronx is saying is that, if Grigson continues making these decisions as he goes along, structuring the majority of his contracts in a "pay as you go" manner, then the team won't HAVE to use backloaded contracts, and won't have increasing cap hits for even their best players.
I don't know if you read my post about how we could apply the "pay as you go" model to a new contract for Luck, in contrast with the backloaded Flacco contract, but the big difference is that Flacco's contract goes from a $12m/year average in the first three years to a $28m/year average in the last three years. You're right in that, once Luck goes from $5m/year to $20m+/year, it's going to cut into our cap space. But with old contracts falling off (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, etc.), and increases in the salary cap, the team should still be in good cap shape, rather than robbing Peter to pay Paul. And the way you set yourself up to have cap room to do a "pay as you go" contract for a player who is going to get a big bonus and a lot of guaranteed money is by doing "pay as you go" contracts along the way, you roll some extra cap space forward, and you do a monster cap hit in the first year of the new deal.
Pay while you have the money now, not when you HOPE to have it on year 3/4. Declining cap hit. Keep cap static.
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I think you two might be talking about two different seasons.
If we were to release Walden right now, or at the end of camp, his dead cap hit would be $4m. If we release him before his $4m base salary is guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit is $750k. If we release him after the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit would be $4.75m.
And just to nitpick with the bolded statement above, players with four years of accrued service are vested veterans, and their entire base salary is guaranteed once Week 1 of the regular season begins. Any player without four years of service only has their base salary guaranteed if their contract stipulates, like Luck, whose entire four year contract is fully guaranteed.
Thanks for the info on vested veterans.
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I think you two might be talking about two different seasons.
If we were to release Walden right now, or at the end of camp, his dead cap hit would be $4m. If we release him before his $4m base salary is guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit is $750k. If we release him after the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit would be $4.75m.
And just to nitpick with the bolded statement above, players with four years of accrued service are vested veterans, and their entire base salary is guaranteed once Week 1 of the regular season begins. Any player without four years of service only has their base salary guaranteed if their contract stipulates, like Luck, whose entire four year contract is fully guaranteed.
You're correct, I misspoke.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nflnation&id=73449&src=desktop
Dead Cap hit = prorated bonus + unpaid portion of any guaranteed money.
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The thread title was sarcastic. Sorry, I should've made it more obvious. The thread title was written that way for all the exact reasons you've stated. I did for all the posters who hated on Grigson and now that his plan is working, they claim they were fooled.Perhaps I'm responding to the title of the thread about "how Grigson fooled us".....
ButI don't think he fooled us at all....
He did exactly what he said he'd do over and over and over again.
He said he would NOT chase names. He did not give out a single Salary Cap crushing contract.
He chose guys he believes fit the system, and above all, play hard.
There are people here who continue to be disappointed with the Colts' FA. Those people simply either did pay attention to what Grigson said, or didn't believe him.
What can I tell you.....?
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Let's not be quick to compare how Polian handled the cap for a mature contender with how Grigson handles the cap during the building phase. Grigson will have much tougher choices to make in future years when he has multiple starters hitting free agency from teams perennially in contention. All mature contenders are making trade-offs with future cap implications to make it work in the current year. See Steelers, Ravens, etc. Those GM's are credited as among the leagues best, yet both entered this off season with horrible cap situations.
While I agree with part of what you said, the major difference is that Steelers ans ravens backloaded their contracts. Grigson is using a static cap. Its the job of the GM to bring in younger talent. Grigson has. Steelers and ravens you could argue haven't. Grigsons static cap strategy will gain is 40 mil cap next off-season and a similar numbers in 2015. Read @superman post to et an idea of how we will be able to pay luck, yet keep our veteran talent. I respect your opinion.
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Sorry to split hairs. Formula is correct, but incomplete as there can be guarantees not reflected in your formula. Dead Cap hit = prorated bonus + unpaid portion of any guaranteed money. Your Gary Brackett contract example is perfect for that. I know you know that I know that you know this.
It would also depend on how that bonus is structured. Is it paid upfront, or divided by contract years.
Ex:3 year contract with 6 million bonus. 2 mil hit per year. Player cut after year 2, last 2 mil is dead money on cap.
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Sorry to split hairs. Formula is correct, but incomplete as there can be guarantees not reflected in your formula. Cap hit = prorated bonus + unpaid portion of any guaranteed money. Your Gary Brackett contract example is perfect for that. I know you know that I know that you know this.
In most cases, the player has already received all guaranteed money by the time he's released. Signing bonuses and other guaranteed money provide protection for the player. But there are instances where that is not the case. So it may be splitting hairs but I appreciate it nonetheless. I know that you know that I know what you know.
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You didn't phrase it wrong.... but it is a both and neither type situation. 2015 just has nothing to do with it until it does. His dead money can only be defined today by what happens to the 2014 cap if you cut him going into next year. We are on the hook for his prorated signing bonus, 2013 base and nothing more as of right now.
Base + prorated bonus= cap hit
Cap hit-base=prorated bonus=dead money into following year of cut.
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You didn't phrase it wrong.... but it is a both and neither type situation. 2015 just has nothing to do with it until it does. His dead money can only be defined today by what happens to the 2014 cap if you cut him going into next year. We are on the hook for his prorated signing bonus, 2013 base and nothing more as of right now.
Right you are.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nflnation&id=73449&src=desktop
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The math works - no argument, but Walden's contract is complicated by the 2014 base unguaranteed until 5th day of 2014 league year. So, measuring his dead money as 4.75 mill is contingent on him having a good year 2013 and us keeping him going into free agency next year. Its a 1 year deal with $750K dead as of today if we cut him after this year.
Correct, which shows that in the link on OP under dead money for 2015. If I were cut in 2009
My dead money would carry into 2010 cap. Same argument, Maybe I phrased it wrong. Happens when pulling an all nighter.
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And compare. Folks can see how Grigs had to play this year to accomplish next year.
http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2013
http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014
And we all know how m,uch Grigs did with so little last year because the huge amount of dead money from jettisoned players in the reload.
Cap hit goes down on most players as years progress. Opens space.
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I don't read the Walden contract to have this much dead money. Walden only represents 4.75 mill dead if he is on the roster 5 days into the next league year. Walden essentially signed a 1 year $4 million contract with us.
Only of we decide to cut him this year. Base+prorated bonus =4.75 mil. His dead money goes down to 500k in year 2. That's if we cit.him by league year 2015.
Cap hit-cap savings =dead money.
So if I signed a 2 year 8 mil contract with a 500k bonuse my year 1 hit is 4.25. If I was cut by league year it would be 4.25 mil (cap hit)-4 mil (base savings)= 250k. Dead money is 250k.
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He'll be pushing 32 yrs. old at that point, and I just don't see a restructure in his future with us. More than likely we'll draft his replacement in a couple of yrs. and let him go after that 3rd yr. of his contract.
Good point, I didn't take age into effect.
How Grigson fooled us...
in Colts Football
Posted
Grigson is front loading the base + prorated bonus. Each year the cap hit declines because he isn't paying out .huge bonuss and lowering bas salary, which allows the cap number to lower, freeing up space. 122.5 (total cap)-87(total number of base+pro bonus of all contract players)=free caps space. Then you have to add carry over cap space from previous year.