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BronxColtNYC

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    Drafting the future, grading the past

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    This draft will be a testament to Grigsons talent evaluation. He now is picking talent at the end of the round, with less picks as opposed to early last year.

    I believe he is a great talent evaluator, butHitting on 2-3 of the 6 picks this year will in my mind put him in an elite status among current GM's.

    if we go wide receiver in first round

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Nah, no way. With Grigson being an ex lineman, one of those picks has to be an offensive lineman. No way he's happy with the way the lineup would be if we entered the season next week

    I agree with you, but you could argue if he doesn't pick one, there's UDFA, Vet FA, and trade capability. I believe one pick will be interior line, but i wouldn't be surprised if that were not the case.

    Grigson is a wild card. (See recent trades/canada signings/recent free agency.)

    Maybe he believes in the players he has now. No one knows.

    if we go wide receiver in first round

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    People don't seem to get this.

    Needs-based drafting backfires a lot. (See colts draft from 2007-2011 among many other teams) Yet, people tend to rely on this when completing mock drafts.

    You have your risers and fallers, but one thing is constant...nobody has an idea how the draft will play out. You might have better odds successfully shooting craps than guessing the draft correctly.

    if we go wide receiver in first round

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    I think WR is going to be very interesting in this draft.. there are a few talented ones but this is not a big-time draft for WR by any means.

     

    I think the furthest Tavon falls will be to Tampa Bay. 

     

    I could see a potential run on WR's before us, or I could see all of the others being around for our selection.  Grigson's FA acquistions have been interesting and I think that our biggest area to improve right now is OL.  However, there are only a few studs at OG, that (IMO) are worth taking in the first round.  Then there are a slue of others who I think will be solid, but will probably be available in the 3rd round.  That being said, I think that Grigs' acquistions have allowed for us to go BPA between several positions in round 1 (OG or versatile OL, DB, DL, LB, WR).  I think LB and DE are similar to OL in this draft, a few guys that seem to be locks to excel in the NFL, who may not be around at 24, and then a group of 2-4 rounders that may have solid NFL careers but are not worthy of round 1 selection.

     

    DB is odd, too.  I think Milliner is a bonafide stud, however I am not totally sold on Rhodes or Trufant (I like Rhodes better for our system, I suppose).  Then, who knows what kind of scouting we have done, but it seems like DB is a position (especially in our system) that we might be able to get away with an athlete from a smaller school later in the draft.

     

    We will have to see what happens on draft day, but unless we've got a really highly targeted player at one of those positions fall into our lap, the more it makes sense for me to trade down into the early 2nd round and acquire an additional 3rd or 4th round pick. 

     

    Personally, I think Hopkins or Wood (Hunter intrigues me, but I'm not sold) would be very solid pick-ups in Round 1.  Otherwise, I think there will be guys like Patton and Rodgers and the kid from Marshall around later in the draft that could provide a boost (Rodgers, IMO, is the most physically talented of this year's group, but seems to be a real knucklehead off the field, so we'll see what Grigs and Pagano think about his interviews, etc.).  With a 2nd round pick and an extra 3rd or 4th, I think we can grab a solid OL, a solid DB, a solid WR, and a solid LB or DL.  Or maybe grab 2 OL, and gamble on another position in the 6th or 7th??

     

    I am excited to see what happens.  I also spent some time mulling thru available FAs yesterday -- and it seems like there are some spot-fixes that we could go back to FA and bring in a few guys for a year contract just to provide some immediate, short-term depth and fill some holes (e.g., if Winston Justice isn't too expensive, and we don't fill our OL needs in the draft, I'd be happy to see him come in on a 1 year contract and try to compete for the RG position and also provide depth at tackle).

    I think we all tend to over analyze the draft. Frankly, bog names drop and later graded prospects go early. Here's what Grigsons board looks like.

    Round 1: BPA

    Round 3: BPA

    Round 4:BPA

    Round 6:BPA

    Round 7:BPA

    Round 7:BPA

    2014 franschise tag breakdown

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Here's a little more insight as to how the tags have worked and as I noted the Transition tag is just about "obsolete."

     

     

    From the USA Today

     

     

    From a historical perspective, it's worth noting little happens once a player is tagged. Only three franchised players have switched teams since the mechanism was first used in 1993, and it hasn't happened since 1998 becaise it's virtually impossible to find a veteran player who's worth two first rounders. The last transition tag player to move was all-pro guard Steve Hutchinson in 2006, though that was largely because the Minnesota Vikings constructed a "poison pill" contract the Seattle Seahawks couldn't match without wrecking their own salary cap. Transitioning Hutchinson was a bad miscalculation by the Seahawks, who would've only needed to front around $500,000 more to franchise him, and virtually no team uses that tag anymore given the lack of protection it provides.

    Good read.

    "The Donald Brown Project"

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Why do we need a change of pace RB?  Someone give me good examples of where that is working, cause I don't see anyone doing that successfully.  The good teams have a backup that's similar to the starter and they take turns on each series.  Now, if you have a package where both Brown and Ballard were on the field at the same time, I would understand them needing to have different assets, but not when they are the only back in the backfield.

    I was just doing that!

    Falcon-turner/rogers

    Bears- forte/bush

    Chiefs-Charles/Hillis

    49ere- Gore/James

    Bucs-martin/Blount

    Rams-Jackson/pead

    "The Donald Brown Project"

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Like I said, I see what you're saying. But big runs period are confidence & momentum boosters. But we could use a speed back. Like a Sproles or Lamicheal James

    TK-You would love this guy

    Another promising running back is Giovani Bernard, who rushed for 2,481 yards and 25 TDs in two seasons at North Carolina. According to PFW, the 5-8, 202-pounder is similar to NFL running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice in terms of his compact build, vision and instincts, but he does not run with the same power.

    We could use a little guy who gets lost between the tackles. Seemed to always work against us. MJD, Rice, woodhead.

    "The Donald Brown Project"

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    I agree that is where he is now, simply because I think Ballard has shown himself to be better, and absolutely more durable. However, I think when DB's managed to stay on the field and has had better than average blocking, he's shown feature back capability.

    While he has absolutely earned all the criticism about being fragile, I wonder if an improved line would also lead to a more durable DB. Getting blown up before you can even make a first move has to be bad for one's health.

    Good point. It would be interesting to see numbers comparing all RB in last 5 years with a career yards per carry average below 3.0 yards and seeing how many had injury issues.

    I bet results would be shocking.

    Would open many people's eyes to how important a run blocking oline is.

    2014 franschise tag breakdown

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    From CBS sports early this off-season:

    Amendola is due to become an unrestricted free agent, and the team doesn't want to use its franchise tag on him since they'd have to pay him in excess of $10 million. Instead, Caplan reports, the Rams are looking into using the transition tag on Amendola as a tight end, which would cut his projected salary to $5.194 million.

    2014 franschise tag breakdown

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    You're correct. PFT said lesser of two on non exclusive but it was wrong.

    Position. Non-Exclusive

    Wide receiver. $8,867,000

    Linebackers $9,619,000

    Cornerbacks $9,090,000

    The bethea numbers and McAfee numbers are correct.

    Nice catch, still a cheaper option than exclusive. Starks from.Miami got the non exclusive tag before signing his deal.

    Yea.. the non exclusive tag is the more common and the one you would use on all our guys , if you can find one worth using a tag on. IMO , the only one that even comes close would be Davis and you would certainly take 2 1st's for him. I'm not considering our punter as that's kind of a category by itself. I can't remember the last time a team used the transition tag. We did use it on Q. Coryatt around 15 years ago.

    G Steve Hutchinson was one of the more famous cases.

    Hutchinson played five seasons for Seattle before departing for Minnesota in one of the more famous free-agent episodes in NFL history. In 2006, the Seahawks gave Hutchinson the transition tag, and Minnesota constructed an offer sheet that included a so-called “poison pill” that would have caused the contract to become fully guaranteed if Seattle matched the offer.

    Hutchinson would play six seasons in Minnesota, making three Pro Bowls

    "The Donald Brown Project"

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    My only concerns about DB are:

    Can he stay healthy?

    and

    Will the Colts have a decent OLine?

    During his tenure as a Colt, when the answer to both has been yes, he has looked every bit the first round quality back people expect.

    When either/both answers have been no, the casual fan has every right to gripe that he's looked very average.

    Add: was he the feature back? Answer is no, he looks good.

    How Grigson fooled us...

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    This^^^^^

     

    The environment in the  locker room is a big deal to successful teams. I like the atmosphere they seem to be creating.

    Analysts have likened our Locker room to a high school team. It has that mix of passion for the game and passion for each other. Great atmosphere.

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