John Hammonds

April 21

It's draft week! And instead of publishing my "final mock draft" or whatever, I'm going to publish the drafting principles I've learned by watching different GM's and coaches conduct their drafts. From our own mocks, I know some people like @Yoshinator see a draft board in much the same way I do. Or, at least looks for similar traits. So, here are my top five drafting principles that I go by:

#1 - Easy Rule Of Thumb -- Look for impact players from big time programs

This is something that Mike Ditka said once in an interview. It was his main simplified rule of thumb. In order to even be recruited by a big-time program (like Alabama or Michigan), you have to be such an accomplished player in high school that they even look at you. Once you get to the program, you've got to be a great player to become a starter amongst all of their other high ability players. And big-time programs play other big-time programs. If you excel against their big-time opposition, then you truly are a GREAT PLAYER. Thus, the rule of thumb: Look for impact players from big time programs. (I know, Chris Ballard often uses the opposite of this rule. And looks under every rock and tree branch to find a diamond in the rough from South Carolina State or Utah or Temple or Towson State.)

#2 - How Long Have You Been Playing This Position

One of the frequent things we see in the NFL is a player who played one position in college, but gets assigned to play a different position in the pros. Sometimes it works. See: Brian Urlacher, who played Safety at New Mexico before playing Linebacker for the Bears. Often it doesn't. Remember Matt Jones? He played Quarterback at Arkansas, but knew he would never make it in the NFL at that position. But he was outrageously athletic. So, he entered the NFL as a WR, and was taken in the first round by the Jags. Bleah. Colts did this kind of thing, too. Bjorn Werner was a 4-3 defensive end at Florida State. Colts brought him in, and tried to make him a 3-4 outside linebacker. A position he'd never played. It's my opinion that we don't want to have to spend any time teaching a player simply how to play the position. We'd rather spend our time helping a player refine his skills in a position he already knows.

#3 - That One Thing

The biggest thing I learned from watching Bill Polian draft is what to do when you're already good. When you're a good team, you're going to draft at the bottom of the first round over and and over. The players that can do Everything well are all at the top of the draft. And when it finally gets to your pick, you have a choice: do I pick a guy who can do everything Pretty Good, or do I pick a guy who does only one thing Off The Charts? Polian's choice? Get the guy who does the One Thing. If they're exceptional in that One Thing, we can put him in immediately, and maximize that One Thing. And we can teach him the rest of the game later. Prime example: Dwight Freeney. Undersized. Not that stout against the run. But, jeez, he had receiver speed from the defensive end position. He was a thunderbolt in the pass rush. Later, he learned a spin move. And to play run defense (although still never that great at it). And Polian did this over and over. It's how we got Bob Sanders. And Dallas Clark. Over and over. That One Thing.

#4 - RAS Scores Matter

This is the thing I learned from Chris Ballard. The player may have worked hard and worked hard and worked hard, and has maximized his game as much as he possibly can. But some people are just born with more athleticism than others. The gods reached down and turned your legs into lightning bolts. It's something you have that nobody else does. And when the best players line up against the best players, it's the guy with that extra kiss from the gods that will win. I used to discount this. I put a lot of stock into the example of Pat Fischer. He was an extremely undersized cornerback who played for the Redskins in the 70's. But he had mined the ore of his talent so completely, he could line up across from the 6'8" Harold Carmichael, and play him to a standstill. I believed in it. But Ballard's example has shown me that Pat Fischer is the exception, not the rule.

#5 - Look for the Leaders

My final rule is to look for players that were team captains in college. They may have relatively average athleticism, but they know everybody else's position, not just their own. And they know how it all fits together. And they know how to lead other men in accomplishing the goal. In the novel, Ender's Game, the small, young student soldier, Bean, asks Ender Wiggin to lead a toon. And Ender gives him his qualifications for leading a toon: First, show me that you know what you're doing as a soldier. Next, show me that you know how to lead other soldiers in battle. Third, prove to me that other soldiers are willing to follow you. Then, you'll get your toon. I look for players who are also leaders. Example? Julian Love. Played safety at Notre Dame. Wasn't all that athletic. Didn't have the best size/speed. But he understood the game, and was a leader on the field. Giants picked him up in the 4th round, and he became the leader on their field. It's one of the reasons I like JD Bertrand so much in this draft. 3-year starter, 2-year team captain. Leaders in college become leaders in the pros. On the field, in the locker room, and in the community.

Well, those are my drafting principles. What do you think? And what are yours?

April 21

I LOVE THIS DRAFT!

If Ballard picks these, I'll go up and kiss him myself.

The only thing missing is a DE, but this draft quite frankly sucks at the DE position, so no harm there.

This draft has both the offensive weapon, the defensive backs, the free safety that we don't have, and good leaders and players in the later rounds that fill Future Needs.

Special notes:

Is Will Fries truly the long-time starter at RG? Or did he just not suck as much last year so that we didn't complain? Adding Zak Zinter to the mix gave us a quality rookie to develop in case Fries doesn't advance any more than were he is.

LB's Franklin and Speed are both out-of-the-way finds for Ballard, and props to him for finding them. But their PFF scores tell a different story than the hype they're getting. They may make a lot of tackles, but a lot of them are by tackling the guy they were covering, who caught the ball for the first down anyway. We needed to bring in somebody who could challenge them. I love the JD Bertrand pick. He's a 3-year starter, 3-year team leader in tackles, and 2-year team captain. Very athletic, who made lots of splash plays. He's a little more of a finesse tackler than a bruiser, and will need someone to absorb the blocks for him in order to be effective. (You mean like Leonard? Uh... Yeah, like that.)

April 20

A common thing that Ballard likes to say is, every pick is a throw at the dart board. And regarding trading down, he always likes to have more throws.

I don't disagree with that. However, I would also like to state the opinion that not every throw at the dart board is the same. Some throws are from 10 feet. Some throws are from 40 feet. I would rather have two 10-foot throws than five 40-foot throws.

Just my opinion.

April 20

Classic. Just classic.

April 19

If he's able to trade back and still get WR Brian Thomas, he'll do it.

April 18

41 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

I think most important option is missing in the poll : No One.

I think it's a fairly average QB class that it's okay to not like anybody enough to draft him. There's no one QB that Wows you with their pocket passing Caliber or pure athletic traits or good combination of both. It's like a tweener class of all those abilities, having lop-sided combination of above said skills.

And, this poll, rather than forcing to pick one QB, needed that extra option to express staying away from this QB class.

I agree. I think this is another one of those over-hyped QB classes that will probably never perform to the level of the hype.

But -- teams still need a quarterback. And will convince themselves that that must take one of these quarterbacks. That it's the only solution to their problem. If I was forced to choose, I would probably go with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. I'm concerned that Caleb Williams may have some personality issues to go with his lack of measurables, even though he shows strong ability to improvise. Drake Maye has the measurables, but I have questions regarding the level of opposition playing at UNC. It's not the same as playing the equivalent of the Crimson Tide every single week. JJ McCarthy is "good". And he's been successful. He led his team to a BCS championship. And? I see him in the same mold as AJ McCarron. Supremely successful in college, but not good enough to be The Guy in the pros.

April 17

13 hours ago, Yoshinator said:

Now that I've made all my picks for the Gavin Mock draft this year, I'm going to do my 2nd version of a mock draft for the Colts. This one will be a bit different than the first. There will still be no trades in this one (I will do trades in my final installment), but I will be drafting a different variation of what I think Ballard may do.

Round 1.) Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Round 2.) Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

Round 3.) Cam Hart, CB, Notre Dame

Round 4.) Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame

Round 5.) Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest

Round 6.) Dylan McMahon, IOL, North Carolina State

Round 7.) Jordan McGee, LB, Temple

So I'm feeling that Ballard may go EDGE in the first round possibly with the dropoff after the first round. Latu has the best combination of athleticism and performance IMO, and despite the injury concerns, I feel Ballard may go for him at 15. Pearsall played with Richardson in Florida for a year, and I actually like him a lot anyway, could be a target in the 2nd round. Cam Hart has the measurables that Ballard likes and could start right away. Estime has the potential to be the top RB in this draft IMO. Mustapha is a nice sleeper S in this class, and since no one really separates a ton, he's a good get in the 5th round. McMahon can be a backup C for Kelly this year, and take over as soon as next year IMO. Finally McGee is a nice lottery ticket at LB that has a solid RAS score. He could be the next Zaire Franklin in a couple years and provides good depth.

What can I say? You and I continue to see the draft in much the same way. Latu, Hart, and Mustapha are all in my MY GUYS list. How can I object? However, I would substitute J.D. Bertrand LB Notre Dame in the 4th round for Audric Estime.

Personally, I would rather we went for a WR in round 1 rather than an EDGE. But I'm not gonna complain!

April 17

We ought to pick Brian Thomas. But we'll probably pick Terrion Arnold.

April 15

On 4/12/2024 at 10:15 AM, VikingsFanInChennai said:

@Mike06181 suggested Nugent, but I'd my eye on him as well as I will be picking for Packers in Vikings forum mock draft next week. I thought he was graded higher sometime last year or early this year, and wasn't aware his draft stock dropped. Not sure why... I hope I'll be able to do as well as you've done for Packers here.

Dunno if you've started your Vikings forum draft yet. But if you liked my 1st round trade to get DeJean, here is the thought process behind it. My Packers self realized that I would have to trade up to get to him. But I didn't want to trade too high. My eye fell on Miami at 21, which I also managed. Miami doesn't have a 3rd nor a 4th round pick. And they could be persuaded to trade down just a few picks in order to pick up a 3rd that they don't have. And the Packers had multiple 3rd round picks. They could afford to give one away. I held off making the trade until it got to Miami's pick. If DeJean already came off the board by then, it wouldn't be worth it. I had to wait. And when it hit -- BAM! I pulled the trigger quickly.

April 14

1 minute ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I noticed this as well. Gives me a lot of confidence the Colts are ready to compete and looking to get the last 3-4 guys needed from the draft or developing guys already here waiting their turn. A lot of people are upset we didn’t add more in free agency but we don’t need to. The return of AR and another year together should improve most players enough we can compete with anyone. This is going to be a really good year

I agree. I feel a lot like I did during the offseason going into 2019. We just did a good thing. We have a lot of young players who are still growing and improving. We have an opportunity to add to it, and take the Next Step.

(Let's just hope we don't repeat that offseason. Since that's when Disaster struck, and Luck retired literally 5 minutes before the season started!)

April 14

Of all the memories of Luck, I still go back to his appearance on Gruden's QB Camp.

(excuse me while I go dry my eyes)

April 14

7 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

I thought Colts spent 200 million on retaining in-house free agents, reading what Stephen Holder tried to preach....

I think that's counting both free agents and extensions. I was just compiling only the free agent figures on Sportrac. It was pretty amazing. I already knew from listening to the radio that Ballard was spending the money retaining his own. But when you actually see the numbers, it jumps out at you. Instead of spending 30-odd million dollars signing 12 to 14 players from other rosters, most of whom are bargain basement people, and signing only 2 or 3 of your own, he spent 93 million dollars signing 10 of his own players, while signing only 2 guys from other teams. It's a complete and stunning reversal.

April 14

9 hours ago, richard pallo said:

It was a huge reversal this year. But it wasn’t because he just wanted to try something different. He changed because for the first time he liked the players he had on his roster more than any of the replacements he could have brought in. That’s a big statement in itself. Continuity does matter. Shane even said the same thing. All they did was make a couple of changes in position coaches. That’s it pretty much. They are going all in with the current roster along with the return of AR and JT for the year. Shane and Ballard are on the same page here. If Shane wanted to change out some players I think he would have pushed for it and Ballard would have done it. They are two happy and confident people right now with the draft in front of them. Don’t be surprised if they reverse themselves in the draft as well. I can see them moving up in the 1st rd if they really feel adding a certain player can make them more explosive. No more same old same old. Those days are over. Ballard doesn’t have forever. He has his quarterback and his coach. When this draft and offseason is over. I think the Colts will be locked and loaded and ready to go.

That's no joke. I was thinking the same thing. Why would he want to re-sign any of the players from his wretched 2019 draft? Bleah!

April 14

I know, this is really weird. My contributing to a thread that I've already complained about twice.

But -- I'm an analyst by trade. And I was looking at a really peculiar thing. Chris Ballard did an incredible turnabout this year, when it comes to free agents. Not saying it's good. Or that it's better. But that it's DIFFERENT. Very Different.

Here's some compiled yearly Free Agent stats from Sportrac:

2020

Free agents signed from other teams: 8 agents for $34.5mm / $4.3mm per year / highest: QB Rivers $25mm 1 yr

Free agents to other teams: 10 agents for $26.2mm / $2.4mm per year / highest: TE Ebron $12mm 1 yr / 1 of 10 drafted by Colts

Free agents retained: 2 agents for $2.0mm / $1.0mm per year / highest: OT Clark $1.2mm 1 yr / 1 of 2 drafted by Colts

2021

Free agents signed from other teams: 12 agents for $22.2mm / $1.8mm per year / highest: OT Fisher $8.4mm 1 yr

Free agents to other teams: 9 agents for $36.8mm / $3.3mm per year / highest: DE Autry $21.5mm 3 yr / 3 of 9 drafted by Colts

Free agents retained: 5 agents for $16.0mm / $3.2mm per year / highest: WR Hilton $8mm 1 yr / 2 of 5 drafted by Colts

2022

Free agents signed from other teams: 14 agents for $42.2mm / $2.7mm per year / highest: CB Gilmore $22mm 2 yr

Free agents to other teams: 14 agents for $54.5mm / $2.7mm per year / highest: OG Glowinski $18.3 3 yr / 3 of 14 drafted by Colts

Free agents retained: NONE

2023

Free agents signed from other teams: 14 agents for $64.4mm / $3.4mm per year / highest: DE Ebukam $24mm 3 yr

Free agents to other teams: 13 agents for $71.7mm / $4.3mm per year / highest: LB Okereke $40mm 4 yr / 4 of 13 drafted by Colts

Free agents retained: 2 agents for $15.2mm / $3.8mm per year / highest: LB Speed $8mm 2 yr / 1 of 2 drafted by Colts

2024

Free agents signed from other teams: 2 agents for $18.5mm / $6.1mm per year / highest: DT Davis $14mm 2 yr

Free agents to other teams: 5 agents for $36.8mm / $5.3mm per year / highest: QB Minshew $25mm 2 yr / 0 drafted by Colts

Free agents retained: 10 agents for $93.9mm / $6.3mm per year / highest: DT Stewart $39mm 3 yr / 4 of 10 drafted by Colts

Instead of signing free agents from other teams, and allowing our players to leave, Ballard had a 100% reversal, signing our own players the kind of money they would have gotten from other teams, and retaining them instead. This isn't just a reversal, it's a HUGE reversal. Almost as if Ballard said, "Well, the plan of not paying our own players didn't work out. Let's try retaining them all, and giving them the money they want. Let's see how this works!"

April 12

On 4/6/2024 at 7:27 PM, NewColtsFan said:

It’s amazing how little you know about Andrew Luck. He didn’t love the deep ball. His offensive coordinator did. Bruce Arians. Luck came from Stanford which ran the West Coast offense, you know, throwing short.

Arians and Pagano were old school coaches who believed in the big chunk play offense.

As for everything else, not a surprise you decide it was all Luck’s fault. You’ve only been selling that for over 10 years. It’s impressive to be THAT WRONG for THAT LONG! Bravo!!

It's rare that I disagree with you, my friend. But I would like to add a caveat to your comments.

It's true that Bruce Arians ran the Zampese/Air Coryell offense -- while he was with the Colts. However, he left after the first year to be the head coach of the Cardinals, and was replaced by Pep Hamilton, Andrew's OC from Stanford. And Pep ran the West Coast Offense, at least according to the Pro Football Reference site. (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2013.htm)

If memory serves, they only retained Pep for two and a half seasons, and replaced him with Rob Chudzinski.

My own belief is that even when running the West Coast offense, Andrew's primary receiver was undersized with a small catch radius. This required him to create more separation. Which resulted in longer routes, and longer time for Andrew to sit in the pocket, waiting for the play to develop. Also, this primary receiver was the only guy who could create downfield big plays. Which means that Andrew had two reasons to sit extra-long in the pocket, waiting for the play to develop. Behind a line that wasn't all that good at protecting him for an extended period of time.

At least, that's how I look at it. Not saying you were "wrong", just adding a caveat.

April 12

2 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

@Mike06181 suggested Nugent, but I'd my eye on him as well as I will be picking for Packers in Vikings forum mock draft next week. I thought he was graded higher sometime last year or early this year, and wasn't aware his draft stock dropped. Not sure why... I hope I'll be able to do as well as you've done for Packers here.

I don't know precisely either. But you can see that he really underwhelmed at the combine.

40 time - 5.23 (rank 38 out of 50)

Vertical - 29.5" (rank 30 out of 50)

Broad - 8'5" (46 out of 50)

3 cone - 7.33 (5 out of 50)

20 yd shuttle - 4.5 seconds (7 out of 50)

bench press - 25 reps (18 out of 50).

April 12

11 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Pick 202 Packers select

Drake Nugent, IOL, Michigan

Fantastic pick! You are totally getting my vibe for my Packers draft this year. A lot of local guys, a lot of Big Ten guys. I've had my eye on Nugent for a long time, even though his draft stock has been dropping. Between the Packers and the Dolphins, I took both Michigan interior offensive linemen.

April 11

I will not be available tonight. Enjoy making my picks for me!

April 10

Just now, Yoshinator said:

Beat the LBer run with the Chiefs. I was deciding between a couple of them after you sniped me.

You and I have been thinking alike all this draft!

April 10

With the 169th pick in the 2024 NFL Mock Draft, the Green Bay Packers select

J D Bertrand, LB, Notre Dame

April 10

1 minute ago, Mike06181 said:

their te is thinking of retirement

This TE draft is pretty bad. Giants can pick up whichever TE the Colts cut this season.

April 10

Just now, John Hammonds said:

LB's Travis or Liufau?

Sorry, Jacobs or Liufau

April 10

Just now, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Giants GM wanted to go BPA

They've drafted QB, WR, G, CB

LB's Travis or Liufau?

April 10

Just now, VikingsFanInChennai said:

I've PM messages lined up leading to Packers pick, so should be very soon now

As long as none of them are the guy I've been waiting 24 hours to pick!

April 10

I'm gonna be out after the Packers pick at 169. I know, I know. They have THREE PICKS in the 6th round. But I've got to get my * to Planet Fitness. Planning to run in the Indy 500 5K on May 4.

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