masnerj
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Posts posted by masnerj
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TBH next year's draft is gonna be better than this year's, atleast in the first two rounds it seems. As long as Ballard gets the early 3rd and maybe another mid-rounder this year, I'm all for adding high level picks next year. Imagine going into next year's draft with 2 1st, 2 2nd rounders or 1 1st and 3 2nd rounders. Ballard would have complete freedom to move up for a generational talent if he so wishes.
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I'd love to trade down from 34 to early 3rd round. Would give us some nicely spaced out picks starting with the #46 through the 4th and 5th rounds. Not to mention, we'd basically own the CRAP out of next year's draft in the 1st and 2nd rounds (especially if both Washington and NYJ suck which there is a good chance for).
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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:
The value at the top of the 1st was MUCH higher than the value at the end of the 1st, big difference, IMO. That is why the trade back was even entertained.
It is apples and oranges, using number of spots as a metric in the 2 situations.
I agree. In any normal draft that would still be the case. But in this draft, that is ESPECIALLY the case. The difference between the 10th pick and 20th pick this year is probably MUCH greater in terms of talent than 10th vs 20th pick in any normal draft year. And thats not just me saying this, I'm sure many knowledgeable draft people (including our GM) would agree with that.
Not a good comparison at all.
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You know what I'm curious about tonight?
Whether a team moves up to the top of the 2nd for Drew Lock. I'm kinda surprised that he fell into the 2nd round (but that kinda thing seems to happens every other year with a QB or two) and wouldn't be surprised to see Denver do that.
But then again with Miami getting Rosen, that might mean that there are less teams looking for a QB so less chance of a trade up?
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Guys we need to stop over-thinking this. I understand where people are coming from but at the end of the day, the draft trade we made last night seems to be a good one. And all indications seem to point towards another trade down made with our #34 tonight.
It has been very well documented by NUMEROUS sources (Ballard himself, other GMs, scouts, NFL draft media, etc) that this year's draft is top heavy with the top 15 players or so. After that, 20-70 is roughly around the same in terms of value. Ballard even went as far as saying that the picks seen after the top 15-20 will start to become more and more varied based on teams' flavor and scheme preference. With the above being true, it makes sense that Ballard traded from 26 to 46 because no-one was left on the board that he loved enough to spend a 1st round pick on. Yes, Sweat was still there but Ballard KNEW THAT TOO AND TRADED DOWN ANYWAYS. That means that Ballard isn't as high on Sweat (for whatever reason, it doesn't really matter as we will never know) as other teams are. In his post-day 1 conference, he was asked about Sweat and he decided to not go into details and simply said a generic "he is a talented player" to end the topic. That probably means that something, maybe his medical check up or his interviews or his character, made him someone that the Colts weren't interested in. Maybe he wasn't (in fact its probable) even on our draft board!
And just take a look at the current make-up of our team. We don't necessarily have any CRAZY weaknesses but we do lack major depth in many positions. Ballard loves his offensive and defensive lineman but in this draft, FIFTEEN went in the first 25. That probably meant that all of Ballard's favorites were already taken and he wasn't as into Tillery as many on this forum seem to be (maybe a character reason too!). But you know what helps with depth? Going BPA with picks in rounds 2-4.
Ballard is sticking with his guns and his talent evaluation and making decisions according to that. If he didn't feel that any of the prospects left at that time were worth that pick, I trust the guy because I actually agree with him. Guys like Tillery, Abram, etc are NOT perfect 1st round prospects and probably wouldn't be first round picks in next year or last year's draft (unless you are the Seahawks I guess who make a crazy 1st round pick basically every year).
Furthermore, I can't wait for this forum and the reddit sub to blow up when the following happens:
1) He trades from 34 down 5-10 spots for additional mid-round picks this year and/or picks next year.2) Atleast 2 picks today will be folks that are not talked about a lot by the NFL media and will be players that not everyone knows (i.e. what happened last year). My money is on Ben Banogu from TCU being one of those players if he is on the board at 46.
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2 hours ago, tikyle said:
I think the new play in the NFL will be to keep drafting OL even when you have a good line to keep the talent rotating rather than paying big money for 4-5 guys. Look at the Cowboys LT. He was a beast but now injuries are catching up to him but he's the highest paid player on the team. You want to avoid that if possible.
Very good point. There aren't too many teams paying 4 OL more than 10 million a year (let alone all 5 positions). Under the Ballard/Reich era, I can almost promise you that we will draft/sign 1-3 OL every year through the draft and/or actual free agency.
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I am pretty sure that Frank Reich is a "win the toss, 99% of the time defer." And if I am not mistaken, based on some research done at some point, the only time you don't defer is if weather conditions are going to play a big role at some point in the game (in which case you select the opportune field side for the opportune time whenever that might be). Alternatively, if weather conditions are known to get exponentially worse through the course of the game, you receive and try to put valuable points on the board.
But the bottom line is (in my opinion as well), you defer 99% of the time. Especially with how complete our offense is. If defense can get a first stop, it would be HUGE in this game.
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2 hours ago, CR91 said:
You can't go deep and throw into the deep zones. I am telling you right now, Mahomes will take a shot and Hooker will pick him off. I promise you that will happen.
LOLOLOL, I made this EXACT same prediction like yesterday in one of the other threads! Great minds think alike ;)
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7 hours ago, DaveA1102 said:
Its going to be a really interesting game. Our #1 ranked defence since 1-5 start vs an electric offence.
The one thing we have going for us in this regard is that we don't give up big plays. Hooker maybe doesn't have the INT stats, but his presence seems to be a major deterrent to deep throws and the corner's deserve a lot of credit also. That being said, its a different animal when against Mahomes, Hill, etc.
Another point I wanted to make is how penalty-free we were against the Texans (2 for 10 yards). It makes such a difference, especially if we find ourselves in a tight game. Those short yards for/against can be huge.
I am confident we will give them a good game, but my fear is we fall just short. If we do get through though, I will be much more confident that we can get a result against whoever awaits us!
To be honest, I think Hooker shines in this matchup. I think Mahomes will try to test the back-end of this defense for whatever reason (young, fearless, never gives-up, some-what mistake prone, Favre-like; lol almost sounds like an early Luck) and we will make him pay for it. I say Hooker gets a pick from a deep throw that Mahomes tries to get in there even though he is covered with safety help.
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Guys you do realize right that even if Adam Vinateri is "losing it a little" or "the age has started to show," he is still among the better kickers in the league? Look around fellas. Kickers are doing HORRIBLE this year. Even established names like Mason Crosby on the Packers are messing up big time.
And I personally don't think he will retire at the end of this year. Only way I see it happening is if he really messes up going near the end of the season and we don't finish well (miss the playoffs, etc). If we make the playoffs and/or finish the season strong (assuming he has decent games), he will want to play another year because Super Bowl might be possible next year with the progression of this team. He might wanna retire after one more Super Bowl if possible.
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JALEN COLLINS IS COMING BOYS JUST WAIT.
HE CAN'T BE WORSE THAN * ARTHER MAULET WHO NO LONGER PLAYS FOR THE TEAM THANK GOD
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36 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
I think he is traded this offseason. I don't see entering the season with him...only to trade him when there are less suitors.
It's a weak QB class and Ballard is going to take advantage of it. But I think Ballard has his eye on a player...not a pick. Perhaps a good young player heading into this 2nd or 3rd year under control for a couple years. Brissett could probably get someone like that.
Nahhh. It is pretty obvious that Ballard is obsessed with 2nd round picks (which he should be) cause he likes to be able to throw those darts at the board in hopes that one or two of them stick (see Turay, Braden Smith, Lewis, Leonard). I'd be more than happy to get a 2nd round pick from a team in the offseason and then see what Ballard can do with it in the draft!
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3 minutes ago, HectorRoberts said:
What does our starting cb rotation look like?
I am guessing Desir and Pipkins (who probably goes from PS to CB2 in ~5 hours which has to be a record somewhere lol)
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Pipkins just went from being a practice squad member to being the CB2 playing against Tom Brady in pretty much 5 hours.
With Hairston and Leonard both out, Farley is pretty much gonna play the whole game on defense and special teams. This should be an interesting one....
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5 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:
Go no-huddle from the start. Wear the defense down
I would NOT be opposed to that to be honest.
To I'd imagine that with a game against a team like the Patriots and also away, some coaches would wanna hold that card till much later in the game. But I say # that, come out guns blazing! Reich should be playing this game under the assumption that 30 points AT THE VERY MINIMUM will be required lol.
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2 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:
Colts are most likely gonna get spanked tonight and if colts lose tonight season is all but over.
Way to overreact. 1-4 is NOT a death sentence, especially for such a young team with a lot of question marks coming into the season (Luck's health, new coaching staff, etc). I have been more than pleasantly surprised by how we look so far. And with this past game proving that vintage Andrew Luck is still there guiding us, I really think that if we can slowly put everything together, we can go on a significant run.
The next three games are against some pretty bad teams and we can theoretically win all three coming off a mini-bye week where we regain some of our health!
Now I am NOT expecting us to make the playoffs but its not over.
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If Castanzo plays, I think it will be an INSANE boost to our offensive line (assuming he is close enough to 100% which he would have to be if they sent him out there to start). Luck, with a little bit time, has the ability to shred pretty much every defense in this league, much less the Patriots and their ehh defense.
Not having TY obviously hurts but I think last weekend was a nice test-run where Luck was forced to play without TY down a bunch of points and he responded without an issue. As long as we don't have drops, Luck should be fine playing with the likes of Pascal, Grant, and Rogers. We spread the ball enough that I am not too worried. In the red-zone, we have Ebron and the running backs. If anything, this prevents Luck from staring down TY every time we play the Patriots. He will be forced to spread the ball around and when he does, he does it really well and usually doesn't throw any bone-headed picks.
Not having Leonard will HURT A LOT. I know they recalled Moore so I am thinking that if Leonard doesn't play, walker slides into his role and Moore takes over Walker's role. But its not as clean cut and dry that Leonard is definitely out. They might just limit the number of plays that he is in.
My problem is with the cornerback depth. If Hairston can't play, we might as well accept that NE will score close to 40 ATLEAST. If he can, then its not all that bad. Play him and Desir at the edges, and bring Geathers up to play against Gronk while Farley fills in as the extra safety in the back. I really don't want to see any of the other cornerbacks play that much in this game because you know that Belicheck and Brady will attack that depth (or lack there of lol). Our defensive game is ultimately going to determine what happens. I have enough confidence in Luck and his ability that we will atleast come out neutral on that front. How much the defense allows is a whole other ball game.
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1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:
Colts defense is good in sacks but teams pick apart our zone right now. Would love to see that change tonight and have another 6 sack night. I just want to see the offense get on a role and what a team to do it against.
I've been saying this for a couple days now but I really think that this could be Hooker's breakout game. In my opinion, he has been playing too far back to actually get involved in plays and be the playmaker that we all know he can be. Remember that one play where he essentially saved a touchdown by barely getting to the path of the ball and deflecting it? He still has the ability but hasn't been close enough to actually do much so far this season.
Now I think that Frank Reich realizes that we probably aren't gonna win unless we get a few turnovers and make some plays on defense. Cue Malik Hooker. Bring the dude a little closer so that he can potentially mess with Gronk and/or Edelman's routes.
Every game, there has been a different person on defense that is showing up to play, especially the young guys. It'll be Hooker tonight with atleast an INT and probably atleast a few pass break-ups.
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Just watch, BB won't even think about the long ball.
And we will come out guns blazing with the long ball. It is pretty obvious that Andrew Luck is getting more and more confident with his throwing (I think the turning point was that deep ball to Hilton this past weekend).
Frank Reich will have a few tricks up his sleeve, don't worry. Watch the first play in the game be a play-action that ends up being a deep ball to like Ebron or Rogers.
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I am not a doctor or a physical therapy professional but I think many people, especially those in the national media, are getting Luck's rehab completely wrong. As someone that has some background knowledge in rehab, etc:
I don't think his not throwing is a matter of him NOT being able to throw but its a matter of no reason for him to throw UNTIL his shoulder is perfectly rehabbed, strengthened, etc. Andrew Luck could probably throw the ball 70 yards right now but I wonder if the idea is more about him getting his mechanics back, getting his strength 100% (and more!!!), and being able to be set up for long-time success as a thrower.
Man hasn't thrown a football in over a year and remember this fact that was on some article: Andrew Luck after his initial shoulder injury/tweak etc several years ago had actually changed the way he threw the ball to COMPENSATE for the injury and the problems he was having. That kinda stuff doesn't just naturally go away, especially as you are trying to come back from an injury and you are mentally and physically delayed.
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Simon might get cut.....just a thought
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Scenario:
CLE #1: Mayfield, QB
NYG #2: Darnold, QB
NYJ #3: Allen, QB
CLE #4: Trade down with a QB-needy team (most likely) or Barkley/Chubb (Barkley more likely here)
DEN #5: If the above is a trade and a QB, then this pick will be Chubb or Nelson (won't be Barkley), if the above is Barkley, then this pick will be Chubb
IND #6: Either way, we are going to get a massive trade down with a team like the Bills for a guy like Rosen, OR get Chubb/Barkley.
If Mayfield goes #1 overall, mark my words: we get Barkley/Chubb OR trade down to 11 or 12 for a MASSIVE Haul.
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I think if we don't get Chubb first round (or Davenport/Landry) if we trade down, chances are very very good that we pick up a pass-rusher in the second or third round.
Teams don't always need a star pass-rusher to win. Many teams do it by committee and if we can get multiple solid pass-rushers on our team like Simon and Sheard (along with whatever development Basham might show), then we will be fine. Shoutout to Hurst, keep an eye on him. My gut tells me the Colts are looking at him and hoping they are in a good position (and good value) to pick him up. If we trade down in the first or if he starts falling, the Colts would be a GREAT fit. He is a quick, first-step disrupting interior lineman who can play in our "quick" 4-3 defense.
Remember guys, the idea is that we don't necessarily need to jump from worst to best in one straight go. Last year's free agency with Sheard and Simon suggested otherwise. If we can get back to average this upcoming year, that would be completely fine with me if we use the 1st (or other premium picks) to plug other holes like ILB, OL, etc.
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15 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:
That's incorrect. He's 6'3 260'ish. He's nothing but a DE in this system and I'm glad he'll be back playing in his natural position.
I still disagree. Once we get into the organized offseason activities and training camp, you'll see that he will be playing a non-middle linebacker role.
Colts trade out of first round
in Colts Football
Posted
It is probably a combination of factors, but we will never know because Ballard doesn't want to disclose that information (which is probably smart from a team standpoint but not obviously for us).
There is no question that Montez Sweat is talented, just look at this production and performance at the Combine. Obviously Ballard knew that Sweat was on the board at 26 but we still traded down. People are making a big deal about Sweat not being picked by us but for all we know (in fact probably so!) he wasn't even on our draft board! There are certainly reports from the medical side of things as well as from a character/coachability side of things that can explain why a lot of teams were hesitant about him, NOT JUST US!