DougDew
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Posts posted by DougDew
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4 minutes ago, csmopar said:
That same argument can be made about any draft picks. From the 1st guy off the board to the last. Even UDFA, for example look at Jeff Saturday.
Yes. Its amazing that anybody would think of the draft working any other way. Its even lucky to be sitting with the first pick when a generational QB declares for the NFL draft. Or unlucky...like Pitt...when you need a QB and the best option coming out that year is Kenny Pickett.
Polian used to say...even when picking late in the first round..."the draft fell exactly the way we expected it to". Always bluster, IMO.
Its like Poker. You can strategize all you want, but if the cards fall against you, you are not going to win. Nobody ever won a Table without luck working in their favor. Its about experience and luck. Genius or clairvoyance isn't part of it. IMO.
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11 hours ago, chad72 said:
But in DD's book, he just "lucked into it" when all he did was recognize the value like GMs are supposed to do.
However, that is something that other GMs before that pick didn't see the same way with AD. So, if AD turns out good, it is again Ballard lucking himself into it, just preparing myself for that future argument 😉
And @Superman. When did I ever say that Ballard didn't have the player he selected as his BPA the time he selected him?
The luck comes into play when a talented player such as AM or Raimann falls and is your BPA when you're on the clock. Its not like Ballard knew they would be there, and finally pulled the trigger before one of the other 31 GMs caught on to what he knew all along. Ballard himself said he had no idea how this stuff plays out, and that he got lucky (that the guy he had as his BPA on the board was so talented). Me and Chris seem to see the draft working the same way I guess.
As far as Raimann, who appears to be a top 10 OT that was picked after a struggling AP and Woods...for whatever reason he was picked behind them.....the situation is no different than other players who turned out better than their draft slot would suggest: Polian got lucky that Mathis turned out to be the player he did. (He had no idea). NE with Brady. (had no idea) SF with Purdy. (had no idea). And Ballard with Raimann. Why would I choose to tell myself that Ballard's benefit from Raimann being a better player than he and every other 31 GM thought he would be (this early), is different than the luck Polian, BB, and Lynch benefitted from?
In the interview, Ballard is being candid. He is telling us that he (and other GMs) get lucky, when the convo is about specific players sometimes.
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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:
I think Ballard was sincere that he didn’t know Mitchell would after picking Latu at 15. I think the moment he felt confident was approaching pick 46, and he could see who was up next so he could gamble he could trade down 6 picks and Mitchell would still be there.Not sure if I’m repeating your point, but wanted to offer my two cents to clarify.
That wasn't exactly my point. I think if he was targeting AM, he would have simply picked him at 46.
IMO, he traded down because CAR offered and he wasn't stuck on any one player on his board, not because it was a strategy to get AM plus another pick, which is what I think you are saying. When he says that "nobody knows how this stuff plays out", I don't think he is saying "I knew how it was going to play out from pick 46 to 52, and I knew nobody was going to snipe us for AM, so I wanted to get another pick too."
I think he saw AM was clearly the highest BPA on his board when they were on the clock....maybe a few picks ahead like around the time pick 50 was on the clock. I think if he was flat out targeting AM around the time, say, when pick 43 was on the clock, he would have just picked him at 46, and not gambled if he really wanted AM then. That's how I interpret his quote.
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41 minutes ago, chad72 said:
At least he pounced on the opportunity instead of letting it go to waste, like he did with Bernard Raimann.
He said the part about nobody knowing how these things will play out.....I thought with a smile.
I took it as him being sarcastic towards the idea that some might think he was targeting AD and "knew" he would fall to 52, even deciding to trade down knowing that he would still be there.
I think Ballard means he simply took the BPA, where it was obvious AD was the BPA staring him in the face.
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Good interview. Said he got lucky with the AD pick (fell). "Nobody knows how this stuff is going to play out"
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Folks. His name is EHlinger.
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Some one to actually back up JT. Hull is a different use kind of RB, not meant to run like JT does, IMO. I was hoping a late round pick or a high priority FA.
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51 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:
T.J. Tampa-Corner-Very similiar to Juju and could start day 1 on opposite side if we dont sign a vet.
Jaden Hicks-Safety who has played a lot of box but is thought to be a better deep Safety so could have position flexability like Cross.
Both were thought to be long gone by this point much like A.D. Mitchell was yesterday when selected.
Our box safeties aren't that great anyway. I'd like to see Cross develop into a FS.
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We have picks 117, 142, 151, 155, and 234. It might not take much to move up to the top of the 4th.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=ind
Edit: The chart didn't update the moves in rounds 2 and 3, but they got the day 3 picks right.
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9 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:
Hopefully we can put him in for Fries in short yardage. He isn't athletic enough to play T and would be a limited G. We needed to move back up ~ _into the 2nd a good ways.
Amadedjie was taken a few picks before. Ballard saw the need to trade up even 3 spots to take Gonc. I think Ballard sees him as something more than a short yardage player.
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21 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:
I think we moved ahead of Seattle after seeing their pick. Ballard had to give up the 6th.
CHI took OT Kiran Amadejie 6 picks before 82. Then he moved up to 79 to take another OT...OG
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I've been suggesting for weeks that the right side of the oline needed to be stabilized, even with a late first round pick if all of the pick 15 choices were gone. I was wanting OT Kiran Ahmedejie at 82 but CHI took him about 5 picks before us. Ballard moved up 3 spots to get Gonclaves. Hopefully, the best 5 olineman start in 2024, no matter at what positions along the right side.
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- Popular Post
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Good pick. Great hands are important. Hard to ever know what character concerns really mean. If its just about being unprofessional about managing his diabetes, that can be supported. Its probably about the things he did that impacted his diabetes mores than simply mismanaging it. But who knows.
Also, compare this WR room to what it was 2, 3, and 4 years ago. Wow. Finally
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31 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:
I think the Colts would have move up for either of them, but 100% agree on the picks
I'll take another shot at this.
Since this team needs upgrades more than holes filled, I'd consider trading pick 46 for another teams 2025 first round pick if the right player isn't there. It happens. Teams have made that trade before.
Then next year, hopefully if its a better draft, we can get two upgraded positions with two first round picks. And probably have more clarity on AP, TEs, and CBs.
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21 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:
I think the Colts would have move up for either of them, but 100% agree on the picks
Yeah, 14 picks is a long time. I'm at a loss of ideas if both of them are gone. Maybe its a good year to use later picks to move up in rounds 2 and 3.
Perhaps Melton, the pure CB, but I don't think its time to give up on Jones and JuJu with another second round rookie. Seems redundant.
I still like the OT from Yale at some point, Kiran Amegadjie. But we drafted Freeland last year.
We really need some upgrades at certain positions, not more of the same ceiling guys. Seems hard to do that past about pick 40, I think.
Maybe a better RG...any ideas there?
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Yes, Cooper or DeJean at 46 would improve the back seven. I think we still go defense at 46, since that seems to be where the value is.
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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:
Deebo is very physical but I think they want more of a take the top of the defense type of guy so they cannot bring their safeties down
would you do a trade for Higgins?
No, I would prefer a rookie contract for any new WR. If we were closer to the SB window, I might add another $20M+ WR contract then.
And Deebo seems to get dinged up, not sure I'd take him with the money he would demand.
Overall, without seeing AP with AR, I'm not certain that either Aiyuk, Deebo, or Higgins is $17M (plus a draft pick) better than AP at this point.
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16 minutes ago, boo2202 said:
Mitchell- questionable attitude
Mcconkey- doesn’t fit with downs
Franklin- drops & no contested catches
Polk- I could see this
Wilson-like the player don’t see the fit
Corley- Doesn’t fit (gadget maybe?)
Coleman- please lord NO
Baker- don’t know much about him
Burton- background/attitude
Washington- another slot not needed
Walker-can’t catch & zero route tree, major project
Agreed for the most part. Its why the WR draft isn't really as deep as advertised as far as Colts needs.
I think Polk and McMillian, who you did not list, are both solid receivers. I don't know if they are much different than AP or Pitt, but they are solid, IMO.
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32 minutes ago, John Waylon said:
Are we finally accepting that tepper forced that move on everyone last year around here now?I got all kinds of hell for bringing that up last fall after frank was fired in Carolina even though that story was out there almost as soon as the pick was made last year. I’m pretty sure someone even accused me of making the story up myself at one point, though to be fair that may have also been on Reddit because a very vocal few took exception to it over there as well.
It came from WF. He has his sources like anybody else, and I think he's pretty reputable. He has his opinions, but they aren't without some deeper knowledge, IMO. Believe him or not. I tend to, especially when his comments explain something strange....
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As far as Latu and the draft, here is something from WalterFootball.com:
Yes, Penix. I believe this to be true: The coaches and general managers wanted Latu, but Arthur Blank overrode everyone because he wanted a “succession plan,” whatever the hell that is. And if you don’t think that’s possible, all I need to do is point to the Panthers last year when David “Axe” Tepper thought he knew more than his coaching staff and front office when he went against their wishes and selected Bryce Young over the preferred option, C.J. Stroud.
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20 minutes ago, Jason_ said:
this is obviously just speculation on my part, but I think Odunze and Bowers were the most likely trades that Ballard tried to make. Moving up higher than 9 would have been really expensive.
I also think he tried to trade down a few picks but didn't get a deal he liked so went ahead and made the pick.
The Colts did wait a pretty long time before sending the pick to the podium.
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2 hours ago, KB said:
I hope we grab both of the remaining University of Washington WRs. Polk and McMillian would round out the WR room well.
I think either of the two would be pretty good picks.
58 minutes ago, boo2202 said:Yea but we don’t just need any receiver. Many that are left have been productive from the slot, which I think were good with downs. Not many outside guys left that don’t have huge warts. Coleman should be nicknamed Christmas due to his speed. Franklin has a problem dropping the ball. If we needed a slot, yes there’s plenty of those available.
Correct. Most of the speed guys left are more suited to the slot, or are straight line guys, like AP. That's why the draft wasn't as deep at WR as advertised and was more of a top end draft...from a Colts perspective. JMO.
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8 hours ago, Mikemccoy84 said:
Anyone know anything about the rest of the te’s left. Maybe we could find someone to replace MAC in the second or third
Tip Reimann. Maybe a 4th or 5th though. 6'5 272. Good RAS. Blocker.
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Just now, compuls1v3 said:
Is it safe to say you liked the pick? Just curious. I did.
I thought all of the options were good options, even a RT. Would have been disappointed if we picked DeJean at 15.
Yes, I like the pick because it sets us up with long term solutions at the three most important positions on an NFL team, QB, LT, and EDGE, so things fell right for us. And we have Paye for the other side.
As far as Latu specifically, I am concerned about his bend. From the tape, he seems to run around the OTs sort of straight up instead of ducking around them. But I may not be seeing it right. But yes, I like the pick.
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Chris Ballard on Pat McAfee Show about the draft
in Colts Football
Posted
"I (nobody) don't have any idea how this stuff will play out". "We got lucky". It means what it means.
Jesus, get off of it. I'm not a Grigson fan and never was. I was called that by people who probably think one GM should be fired because the new guy will have so much more genius and clairvoyance. I'm not the guy who calls for firing the GM. I know the next guy might not have any better success.
Finally, after about 6 or 7 drafts did it start to sink in with many, that the new guy doesn't have gobs more special knowledge or talent than anybody else in that profession has.