RealityIsLuck
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On 3/29/2024 at 10:03 PM, jskinnz said:
I believe we should listen to Ballard when he said likes his young secondary players. That to me means it is extremely unlikely they would invest 3 picks in the defensive backfield.
Right, I hear you, but I can't seriously believe we'd roll out the same defensive backfield that got TORCHED against Houston (at home, in a winner-take-division showdown) in a year where we've essentially added nothing externally and are going into 24' entirely dependent on player development to take the leap.
Not to mention Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (to an extent) have been loading up with talent to go all in. I just can't see Thomas/Cross being in consideration for either one of the starting safety spots, or Jones/Flowers being the day 1 boundary corner opposite JuJu in nickel sets.
Mock was pre-Blackmon re-signing, so 3 DB/2 S could be a tad rich for sure. But I would be shocked if we didn't draft at least 2 secondary players.
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Happy Friday Colts fans, wanted to share with my first stab at an "ideal" 24' Mock after Ballard's Free Agency looks like it's essentially ended (plus or minus maybe a signing post-signing draft or two).
Operating Assumptions:
- The Colts will continue to prioritize retaining in-house talent over free agents. This has been made abundantly clear in this year's free agency. In on Hunter, in on Snead, but not meeting the $ or landing as the preferred singing spot. We have massive gaps on the roster, and they will likely have to be rookies.
- Retaining draft capital and cap flexibility. As long as AR is on his rookie deal, this point will remain (under we make any uber-aggressive moves). I think this makes it unlikely we trade up.
- Ballard loves his picks (&RAS). I think it's more than likely we trade down from 15. Ideally, add a second and change. Given the state of the secondary I think it's likely they trade down and collect extra day picks to address the issues at CB/both safety spots. If they want to compete for/in the playoffs in any competitive fashion, they need to address all 3. Trends are trends.
Mock trade:
IND receives: 1 (25), 2 (41). GB moves up to 15 to grab a top lineman (Fautanu, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, whoever falls).
1 (25): Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
DeJean is my top draft crush this year. At 6'1 he possesses the ideal size and athletic profile for an outside CB. The Colts desperately need another outside corner to pair with JuJu Brents and DeJean could form a strong pairing for the next decade+.
DeJean is also great against the run and has positional versatility. He could move around the Cover 3 and play at multiple levels. An asset to the scheme and strong fit who could be a cornerstone piece.
2 (41): Darius Robinson, Defensive Lineman, Missouri (7.22 RAS)
This is the luxury pick for moving down. I would love to see Tyler Nubin or Xavier Worthy here, but don't envision either will be on the board. Robinson is a versatile DL, at Mizzou he kicked out to ED this year and thrived. He's big (6'5/285) and very powerful. What he lacks in speed he makes up for in power and length. In today's NFL you can never have enough EDGE guys to play by matchup, and Robinson could make an impact day 1. He's got a unique skill set and that could dominate in certain matchups.
2 (46): Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (9.33 RAS)
Another huge draft crush of mine. I'm confident enough that there will be another good WR option here to provide a solid upgrade over Alec Pierce, due to the pool of 2nd rd talent in an insanely stacked class (Worthy/Legette/Coleman/McConkey/Franklin).
Franklin in Steichen's offense with Pittman/Downs/AR/JT is scary. Franklin lit the nation up at Oregon this year. The big knock is his small frame (176 lb at 6'2), its a valid concern but Franklin has all the tools to be an elite NFL WR - 4.4 speed, 39" vert, smooth hips, and great footwork (despite a limited route tree). He'd fit in as a fantastic vertical threat day 1 across Pittman. If he can add some bulk and muscle while expanding his route tree he has WR1 potential.
3 (82): Jaden Hicks, Box Safety, Washington State (9.28 RAS)
Initially, I had Claen Bullock penciled in here as I love his tape, range, and Cover 3 fit. However, I fundamentally cannot mock 2 straight 6'2 dudes under 190 lbs. We need positional versatility and can be well-rounded defenders day 1. Hicks fits that mold.
Hicks is a former CB who's great against the run. Fits the RAS MO, is physical, has good size, and can play across the defensive backfield. He'd likely start day 1 as a box safety barring any late FA adds.
4 (117): Cole Bishop, Deep Safety, Utah (9.87 RAS)
Another safety prospect I would love to see who addresses a massive need. We don't have a starting quality safety on the roster today. If we lose Blackmon, may as well go back to the Utah well that's been good to us. We cannot contend with the safety play we had last year.
Bishop follows the key theme of every add so far - athletic, versatile players with great size who can play multiple positions. I'm confident Bishop/Hicks would develop into an above-average pairing but it would likely come with growing pains without any FA additions.
5 (151): Trevor Keegan, Interior OL, Michigan (9.22 RAS)
Keegan is a day 3 prospect I think would fit excellently with the Colts. Just like his former teammate and current Colt, Jake Witt, Keegan has a strong RAS score at 9.22. He's got good power and experience on an elite zone-blocking line.
6 (191): Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State (9.02 RAS)
With Zach Moss' departure to Cincinnati, I expect us to look for a late-round flier on a RB. Personally, I love some of the day 2 backs (Braelon Allen, Blake Corum, JBrooks, Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Will Shipley) but that is a tad rich for a spellback to JT. Davis provides a lot of value as a receiver out of the backfield and has upside as a powerful downhill runner.
7 (234): Josh Magee, LB, Temple (9.3 RAS)
It wouldn't be a Ballard draft without a day 3 LB. Magee has the athletic profile that checks out with the developmental flier we seem to take every year.
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Really like the Quinyon Mitchell and Javon Bullard picks. I think this is a great class for day 2 talent that can come in day 1 and contribute. Bullard is one of my top targets in round 3, I think he'd fit like a glove.
While I like Addonai, I don't think he'd be my target if we pull the trigger on WR in a trade-back. Might be a stretch but I'd be all over Troy Franklin or Brian Thomas Jr. if available. Theres some guys I think fit as well as Mitchell that should be around mind rd 2 (Laggette/Tez Walker/McConckey) that I'd rather wait on than taking Mitchell top 30, but that's just me.
Not a fan of Stover, but the day 3 picks knock it out of the park. I'd be happy with this class overall.
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This mock may look a little un-Ballard but hear me out, I believe the Colts may be a little more aggressive this off-season, It's hard not to when you've got well over $100M in cap space. I think they'll make a couple more 1 year moves rather than rolling cap over, but I am still trying to come at it with a Ballard outlook.
Re-sign:
Pierre Desir, CB, 1 year / $7,000,000
Desir exceeded expectations for the Colts last year. He had a great year, similar to Rashaad Melvin, I think he'd rather take a 1 year gamble with a higher APY than a long term deal with a lower base. Melvin netted 5.5 and played similarly, assuming nobody offers Desir a larger flier deal this should keep him home. If he continues his high level of player he will certainly be in line for a large payday next off-season, but I think it’s too early to give him the farm now.
Dontrelle Inman, WR, 1 year / $2,000,000
Inman came in mid season and really impressed. He looked like a very formidable option for the Colts passing offence. He is a very solid depth WR who can play in a pinch.
Jihad Ward, DT, 1 year / $2,000,000
Depth signing for the DL. Ward flashed last season for the Colts, though injuries brought an end to his season.
Tender: Chester Rogers, Matthias Farley
Sign:
Landon Collins, S, 4 year / $38,000,000
Collins has had an up and down start to his career, he followed up a slightly disappointing rookie campaign with 2 extremely solid years in his 2nd and 3rd years being one of the premier safeties in the NFL. Despite this, he’s still got injury concerns and fell off a bit last year. Overall, Collins is a 25 year old, 3 time pro bowler and captain of his team. He is a guy that I could see Ballard spending big for, he’s a great locker room guy and a tremendous fit beside Hooker. Collins can play all over the field, dimebacker, deep and is great in run support. He’s a good matchup with tight ends (something that the Colts have historically struggled with). Overall, I think he fits perfectly, and if he doesn’t break the bank he very well could be a horseshoe. (The contract is based off Devin McCourty’s deal in 2015 but on 4 years to account for injury concern)
Z’Darius Smith, DL, 3 year / $24,600,000
This guy just screams Ballard signing to me. He’s a young, versatile player. He reminds me of a slightly better Denico Autry, someone who could play anything from 3-4 OLB to 4-3 DT. He can play EDGE or inside for the Colts and would be a force with Autry. It looks like the Colts best path to a formidable pass rush may be pass rush by committee as it looks like a premier pass rusher may be out of the equation at this point. With DL being something that the Colts need some help with, Smith looks like a smart signing. Getting a bunch of high motor guys in the same rotation is a recipe for success.
John Brown, WR, 1 year / $5,000,000
Similarly to the Ryan Grant deal, this is a flier for a underperforming WR. Brown would fit in to the receiving core quite well, he’s a speedster. Another weapon who could fit in well, hopefully he doesn’t follow the curse of being an underperforming #2 WR FA acquisition for the Colts.
Orlando Scandrick, CB, 1 year / $1,750,000
Scandrick is somewhat washed, but played okay at times for the Chiefs last year. This move adds depth and insurance in the case of either an injury or poor play from one of our younger corners.
Denzel Perryman, LB, 2 year / $15,000,000
Perryman is a thumping inside backer who is very stout against the run. He struggles in coverage, but at 26 he is still young. A linebacking corps of Perryman, Leonard and Walker has the potential to be set for years if Perryman can find his grove with the Colts. With injury and coverage concerns he may not get a contract big enough to represent his potential. I’d opt to give him a 2 year deal with a higher APY rather than a longer deal. (Contract based off Avery Williamsons deal)
Draft:
1. Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
Dynamic inside pass rusher who would be a great addition to the interior DL.
2. Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
A ballard guy, someone who could be a #2 WR in due time. He’s got all the tools to be a #2 thriving in the intermediate game, something the Colts really need.
2. Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn
At 6’2 he’s a big outside corner with the potential to be a nice, big outside man to man corner.
3. Amani Hooker, LB/S/CB, Iowa
One of my favourite players in this class. A dynamic player both in run support and in zone coverage. You can throw him anywhere in the defense and he’s gonna make plays, in obvious passing situations you can play him at LB (take out Perryman) and then in running situations you can play him out wide or at safety with Collins and Hooker.
4. Jamal Davis, LB, Akron
Small school backer, he’s physical and uses his body well but has issues wrapping up and getting off blocks. He’s got the tools and if he can put them together well he can be a nice linebacker.
Not gonna add rounds 5-7 until I've got a better idea of who my favourite sleepers are. But heres the roster outlook:
Costonzo / Haeg
Nelson / Andrews
Kelly / Boehem
Glosinksi / Pohels
Smith / Garcia
Luck / Brisset
Mack / Hynes / Wilkins
Hilton / Campbell / Brown / Inman / Rogers
Doyle / Ebron / Cox / Hewitt
Smith / Lewis
Jones / Hunt
Autry / Ward
Sheard / Turay
Leonard / Hooker / Franklin
Perryman / Davis
Walker / Adams
Desir / Wilson / Moore / Dean / Hariston / Scandrick?
Hooker / Farley
Collins / Hooker
May be a little bit rich at this point, but it's just a stab at things for now.
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I would like trading for him but i wonder how much they'd ask for.
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I’m fine with this pick. Very talented, decent fit but I think Ballege would pair better with Mack
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After a busy two days I wanted to bust down the smoke and kinda look at what we realistically have at the moment, and what can be done to improve upon this whether through day 3 picks, or from the fourth wave FA’s.
There’s still options on the veteran FA market (thank god) because we’ve got so,e giant holes. First and foremost MLB/OLB, WR, CB, and RB.
I think ink we can get 3 impact players in this draft, maybe not starters but situational/impact players. Honestly I think we should target CB, LB and WR in that order.
In Round 4 you’ve got a chance to grab a great cover corner in Nick Nelson from Wisconsin. I’d love that pick. He can play inside out and has the versatility to fly around the field.
With thhe he picks in Round 5, I’d target Tegray Scales/Josey Jewel/Shaq Griffin whoever is around. All 3 are different types of players but could fit in while and even potentially start (that’s how weak our LB core is). With the other pick I’d go for Eq St. Brown if he’s still around, if not I’d take Korey Robertson.
There’s a number of free agents I’d consider bringing in after this draft as well. C.J. Anderson or Demarco Murray would be natural fits with Marlon Mack and now with a much improved OL, they’ve got opportunities to actually look good.
Another big name I’d consider is Dez. He may be a big name but I see little bar in bringing him in on a larger one year prove it deal. He’d provide a big target for Andrew and would provide less attention to Ty and Ryan Grant.
On the LB corpse I’d take a long and hard look at NaVarro Nowman and/or Korey Toomer. Both would really bolster our LB corpse, a starting line of Leonard/Josey/Toomer or Leonard/Bowman/Griffin provides a lot to work with.
Lastly, I’d look at DRC or Delvin Breaux. Both have the ability to start outside for us which would allow us to run a combo/rotation of Hairston, Desir and a rookie in the nickel which isn’t too shabby.
Attached I’ve just got a little sketch summarizing these thoughts, pay no attention to it don’t even know if it will be big enough for you to see.
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Not really a fan. I prefer Hubbard if you're going DE, or Hurst if you're going DT. I really liked Nathan Sheppard too. Not sure on this one. Honestly, I'm not going to pretend like I'm some amazing scout, but I've been skeptical so far.. prove me wrong Ballard, prove me wrong.
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Not a fan. Sam Hubbard was on the board, and we passed on Harold Landry for Braden Smith who imo still would have been around at this pick.
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Love the Jackson and Landry combo, it’s what I’m rooting for personally, but he has us passing on both Derrius Guice and Maurice Hurst for Darius Leonard. Seems like a reach for need to me.
My ideal situation:
36 - Josh Jackson
37 - Harold Landry
49 - Maurice Hurst / Derrius Guice
67 - Malik Jackson / RB (Kerryon Johnson?)
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Great move from the Cards to move up to 10 and grab what I'm assuming will be Rosen.
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Buffalo trades up with TB... gonna be interesting to see what they give up as thats likely the package that we inevitably declined.
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Is it Smith or Nelson???
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Pick is in
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Just pray here that it's not Chubb to the Broncos, gotta think they will at least consider Nelson. Heard they really loved Ward, too bad he's gone.
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Guess who called it!!!!
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2 minutes ago, dgambill said:
Yes I thought it was trade or Barkley all along.
Does Chubb get to us?
Depends on what Cleveland does at 4... do they trade down? If not they'll probably grab Chubb if not a "mystery defensive player they like" which was rumoured a couple weeks ago... my guess is if its a surprise it's Derwin James or Denzel Ward.
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Saqoun, Odell and Eli will be a deadly offensive trio
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Crazy, literally can't believe they took Mayfield!
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Oh boy I'm excited
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If we’re picking at 6, my moneys on Quention Nelson unless Chubb is on the board which he may very well not be. If we move back I’d say Smith or Edmunds.
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Rd. 1 - Denzel Ward
Rd. 2 - Joshua Jackson, Isiah Oliver, Carlton Davis
Rd. 3 - Donte Jackson, Nick Nelson
Rd. 4 - Duke Dawson, Quentin Meeks
Reality's 2024 Mock 1.0
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Totally. Agree with you on Ballard's belief system and 90% of your main message here.
I think the discrepancy comes from the fact we have 7 picks to use, and if we trade down (another one of Ballards core values), we've got to invest somewhere. Added to our IDL depth, grabbed a backup QB, brought back all our OL depth. Unless our FO is viewing OL depth as a top priority (next C, starting quality RG or red-shirted RG, future RT, etc etc) I don't see many needs outside of a spell back to JT, another weapon at WR or TE, and an off ball LB at some point there just aren't many gaps to address outside of the secondary, even if Ballard is confident in the upside of the current group.
I like your framing on the theme of the off-season. It feels like Colts fans are acting like the sky is falling and our division has taken 3 steps forward before we have taken one.
It's important to take a step back and remember we essentially added nobody from 22 -> 23 and rode +5 wins off better coaching and the existing group taking a step forward. Very fair to think the same could happen with such a young roster. Where I get overly skeptical is when it comes to the secondary, and being dependent on guys like Thomas/Cross to take those types of leaps when they've shown very limited upside in the opportunities they've had.