Mouthfire
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Posts posted by Mouthfire
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Thats too bad. Looks like a good mix of Ballard and Carter today.
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That's an exceedingly poor comparison. When I watch Donald Brown I see a back who has good physical ability but rarely plays above the level of his blocking, which is a sign of a merely average runner. He's got good outside speed but he's not particularly shifty, he doesn't have very good vision, he's not a very physical runner who can churn out additional yardage after contact, he doesn't cut smoothly, and he seems to be naturally more comfortable running east-west than north-south. If you want to compare him to a Texans runner under Kubiak, he's much closer to Steve Slaton than he is Arian Foster. That doesn't mean he's bad or that he isn't significantly hurt by the blocking in front of him or the scheme (honestly, some of these plays Arians has drawn up have me scratching my head big time). He just doesn't have the same tools and wouldn't be anywhere remotely as good as Foster in a predominantly zone stretch scheme.
You're right about Foster not having many outstanding qualities. He's not a physically dominant back by any means but he has tremendous vision and he is a fair bit shiftier than he appears. Where Brown will sometimes make jarring, sudden stop-and-start cuts to change direction or freeze a guy, Foster will only make a subtle hesitation or sudden downhill cut that has essentially the same effect on defenders but doesn't cause him to lose momentum. That makes him much more consistent and much less likely to take a loss trying to make something happen when the blocking isn't perfect.
Terrell Davis wasn't known for having any single, outstanding quality (apart from, again, his vision), either. He was just well-rounded enough, fluid enough, and consistent enough to be wildly successful before his knees gave way. Did he have good blocking? Of course... but he made his line look good as much or more than his line made him look good.
Here's where I'll disagree with you. If you've seen my ongoing statistical analysis, you'll see that when hit behind the LOS, Brown averages anywhere from -0.33 to +0.66 YPC, which is pretty good. That compares favorably to Adrian Peterson, for instance. But the surprising thing is that in that situation (ie with backfield penetration), Brown actually picks up an average of +3.0 yards after contact, which is ridiculously high. Vick Ballard, a powerback, averages an +1.6 extra yards. Arian Foster, another speed back, averages +0.25 extra yards after contact. If you watch the film closely, you'll see why: there are one or two runs every game where Donald Brown will turn a potential 2-3 yard loss, into a +3 yard gain.
Also, Brown got most of his yards last week running north-south: 9 carries for 46 yards (out of a total of 14 carries for 80 yards).
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...Have you watched a Texans game? Or are you going off of highlights? Foster has what many would call deceptive speed, which isn't a bad thing at all. I've seen him run players over on more than one occasion, but he is a smart back and by the time he meets a defender (after outrunning the others) he's already 7 or 8 yards down the field and knows that it would be in his and his team's best interests to get out of bounds. Like Supe said, he is a good traffic runner as well. He will stretch for the first down and has tremendous effort. There is a difference when Ben Tate is in...he and Foster are two different backs completely. Faulting Foster for having an o line is like faulting Brady for having the same. They are both good players, who happen to play on good teams.
I'm not going to fault Foster for that. Not in the least. I was just using him as an example of how critical it is to have a good offensive line. And he does benefit from a pretty tip-top offensive line.
And I live in Houston, btw ;-)
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What I like about Arian Foster is that, despite what you mention about his limited skill set (and all of that is why he wasn't drafted, and was cut by the Texans before getting called back), he has great vision and anticipation. It's true that the offensive line gives him a ton of help, and he wouldn't be as effective behind our line. But I think he'd be better, because part of the reason he doesn't get hit in the backfield as much as our backs do is that he anticipates well and reads where the hole is going to be. It's an intangible trait that doesn't show up in the numbers, but if you pay attention to the blocking and watch his use of his blockers, it's obvious. He also moves to and through the hole with great ease. He's not necessarily explosive, but he does finish well, and he runs through traffic well also.
I've watched college film of Vick Ballard and made comparisons to Arian Foster. Again, his physical characteristics aren't going to jump off the screen at you, nor are his measurables. But he seemed to have that ability to find the seam and then get through it, and he finished well. He hasn't been as good at doing that in the pros, which isn't surprising. He'll get there.
Not denying that. The thing about Foster is that he fits what the Texans want him to do, and he does it well. I just doubt he would be the league leading rusher without that offensive line.
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IMO, Donald Brown reminds me of former Vikings RB Robert Smith. Same build and running style. Watch some tape on Smith and tell me he dont!
Actually, that's a pretty good comparison.
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DB has only played a few games this year; we have the easiest schedule we've had in 10 years; our Oline is a little better than it has been in a few years; and Luck is throwing the ball so much that defensive backs are not crowding the line....and now you guys are comparing Brown favorably to Arian Foster? You are the same guys who defend Brown in all of these Brown vs Ballard threads. I think you are going overboard. I mean I really wished Brown was that good, but I haven't personally seen it yet and I watch every game.
I'm comparing Brown to Foster because statistically, he performs like Foster when he gets good offensive line blocking, and he performs similarly to Brown when he doesn't get good blocking. The difference is, Brown gets hit in the backfield twice as much as Foster. If Foster were getting hit in the backfield as much as Donald was in the beginning of the year (35% instead of 20%) he'd average somewhere around 3.7 YPC, based on how he performs with good vs bad blocking.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again:. Foster really isn't that good of a running back. He's fast, but he's not overly fast. He doesn't break a whole lot of tackles, doesnt run people over, doesn't pick up a lot of extra yards after contact, and he isn't particularly elusive. BUT... usually when he reaches the line of scrimmage, there aren't any defenders within miles of him. He often gets 5 yards past the LOS before anyone touches him. That's what having an elite offensive line does for you.
That's why when they stick in Ben Tate, you don't notice any difference at all. It's all the offensive line.
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Im glad we incorporated some Zone Blocking in the acheme, Im much more into that then Man, I think we have the O Line for Zone but not for Man, thoughts?
Yeah, It's interesting the personnel they brought in for the man blocking scheme. A good offensive coordinator makes adjustments to fit the personnel. I'm just glad they eventually did it.
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Johnsons longest run of the day was 14 yards he ended up with 99, Brown had 80 yards on 7 less carries. we wont get a full idea what Brown can do because the coaches have it in there head he isn't good enough to carry the load
I see Donald Brown as an Arian Foster type. He's a speed back that really flourishes behind a consistent offensive line... except that Brown actually picks up more yards after contact. It'd be interesting to see what DB could do behind a top notch offensive line like Houston's.
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Brown is a back that you have to give touches an he can spring a big one but we tend to run an if it does work right away we give up on it
I'll say it again: a lot of the issues that we've been attributing to Brown are actually due to the offensive line. If you closely watch the flow of the games in early part of the year, you'll see that we began abandoning the run when we started to have runs for losses. Why were we running for negative yardage? Because the offense line was allowing backfield penetration 35-37% of the time... twice what every other team was allowing. It's hard to get positive yardage when you're hit as soon as you get the hand off.
For the past few games, we've gotten that backfield penetration down to the more normal 18-20%, and guess what? We're not running for negative yardage anymore. In fact, DB's consistently been running it down the gut for 4-5 yards per attempt. Not only that, but ALL of our backs are looking pretty good.
Good run game or bad run game... If you know what to watch for, you'll see that it really does hinge on the offensive line play.
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All I can say is, as I sit and watch Luck continue to scramble play after play (it sure seems like every play, bur I'm sure it's not), I wonder to myself "where's his line at?" Holy maceral! I see folks on these threads mention how our line is improving and giving all these stats. I realize they are improving, but I would like to see what Luck could do if he had a little time to think behind the line. I hope we finally get to that point at some time. Look at Brady, I swear sometimes it seems like he can go order a cup of coffee, drink it and then come back and throw the ball. Maybe it's just me.
Well, the run blocking has vastly improved. The pass blocking has not. Luck is still running for his life, more times than not.
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...I think runners have to have runs in a series (not neceessarily in sucession) so they can make moves and make plays
No offense..meant..but in youth ball..the coaches often try to make sure all the backs get some carries.....that's all I meant
I dont think we're trying to be fair to Delone Carter...I dont want us to be fair to all the backs...
Carter gets to score TDs because he's only used in short yardage and near the goal...a place Brown hardly ever gets the ball.
That's his role....4th-and-1 .and goal line...That's a good role
..as an aside..I like arguing about who should carry the ball more because it means we're not 20 pionts behind and piling up 3-and-outs
It sure is more fun to debate Carter vs. Brown vs. Ballard after 7 weeks than it is to argue why we're 0-7 and who should we draft.
Yeah, it's a good problem to have. Certainly beats not having a run game at all.
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You are right..Joker...the plays up the middle last week were because Tennesee stayedin a 6-man front..
Greg Rakestraw must have been smoking that straw..
Actually, not true. I reviewed all of the plays up the middle this week. Out of 13 plays up the middle between Brown and Ballard, only 3 or 4 were against six man fronts. In fact, in overtime, we were running a lot of power-running 3 TE sets against NINE man fronts, and Brown was reeling off big runs multiple times.
Make no mistake: we made it a point of forcing a power run game down their gut, and we were doing it effectively.
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Both of your arguements appear to be valid. I believe Ballard should be the starter, but why not have a Jacobs/Bradshaw (NYG), Johnson/Holmes (KCC) or Tomlinson/Turner (SDC) situation. Have 2 backs that work in tune with each other. Ballard is the Hit First Ask Questions Later back and Brown is the Cant Touch This back. I think Arians should use both collectively.
I never said otherwise. In fact, I think the way they used our stable of backs this week was perfect.
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This whole thread (and Mouthfire's stats) really only shows me one flaring thing. We need to run the ball a bit more... 20 carries isn't much to ask from the playcalling and I remember someone bringing up a statistic where ALL Runningbacks seem to have better performance when they have 20 plus carries. I can't be sure but I think if we had a decent set of gaurds and 20 + carries Mr. Brown just might be lighting up the football field like a premier back.
Look at Ray Rice in Baltimore he looks... pedestrian to be frank and mainly because he hasn't gotten a 20+ carry game in a very long while!
Can't argue with that. We need to keep running more, in general.
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Vick Ballard had a top speed of over 20.3mph on that game winning catch and run according to Sports Science
Hahah... That's faster than my car.
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Greg Rakestraw @gregrakestraw
#Colts Brown: Big difference in running game this year is the focus on downhill running. In years past, everything was to the outside.
Yep, sounds about right.
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So, Browllard is starting? I like it!
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Well, that sucks. Having both those guys would've helped.
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Sure it's possible and likely that's the way it is for a lot of players, but I've seen Ballard be just as explosive as Brown. Take the winning play at the Titans game. That's a pretty quick movement up the field wouldn't you agree? Donald's main advantage comes with speed on the outside which is fine and dandy if you can get the O-line to come with you. That rarely happens as you've noticed. Ballard has much more of a knack for barrelling through the gut and I think that suites this offense. North/South > East/West running.
Well, surprisingly enough, during this week's game, Donald Brown did most of his damage running it down the gut.
This is information available from NFL Game Rewind:
Run down the middle for +3 yards (initial contact at -5 yards)Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +2 yards)
Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +3 yards)
Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +1 yards)
Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +3 yards)
Run down the middle for +19 yards (initial contact at +14 yards)
Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +4 yards)
Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +5 yards)
Run down the middle for -3 yards (initial contact at -4 yards)
9 carries for 46 yards running down the middle, +5.11 YPC, picking up an extra +2.44 yards after contact
So not only is he running it down the middle quite a lot (64% of the time), he's pretty efficient at doing it. Furthermore (contrary to widespread opinion), he's picking up an extra +2.44 yards after contact doing it. This is pretty consistent to the YAC he's been picking up all year (see other thread for details). In particular, note the first run, where he was initially hit -5 yards behind the LOS. He turned that into a +3 yard gain. He's consistently been doing that once or twice every game.
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Power rankings are so fickle from week to week. I never pay attention to them. This isn't college football.
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Curious........Did this Prisco guy say the Broncos were going to the Superbowl?
I have them going to the Superbowl.
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They're both better than Donald Brown. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise.
Bad run blocking blah blah blah... 3.3 YPC 2 TD blah blah blah. I'll just spout my usual drivel. ;-)
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1) That 80 yard run is one of the reasons he's dangerous. It's ridiculous to try to twist it and use it against him.
2) That run was NOT in garbage time. It was the biggest play of the game in our first win of the season.
3) I don't know why old ideas refuse to die. Donald Brown was the 5th most efficient pass blocking back in the league in 2011. Better than Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, etc.
4) His pass blocking, good or bad, is completely irrelevant to the topic, which is solely focused on the back's ability to produce in the run game.
Yeah, that's another misconception that keeps self-perpetuating itself. Donald hasn't been a bad pass blocker in a really long time.
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I suppose you could say that. Although Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson don't seem to be effected by it that much. They both have worse Run Blocking O-line's this year.
I don't know. McFadden doesn't look particularly impressive. He's not exactly lighting the world on fire right now.
ballard has the heart of a lion
in Colts Football
Posted
Lol