We have a very exciting upcoming draft. BDB just pulled off a wonderful trade, getting 3 second rounders from the Jets in return for moving down 3 spots from #3 to #6 overall. For now, the top 5 is set and will likely remain the same till draft night. This post is about dissecting each pick and team and looking at the possibilities that exist for the Colts at #6. Alright, let's get to it.
#1 Overall - Browns: QB#1
It is widely expected that the Browns will draft a QB here. They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal (for a running back) and are trying to extend Duke Johnson. Hyde + Johnson would be a very solid RB committee and drafting Barkley here would be a waste. They finally made the move to hire a competent GM in Dorsey and you can bet that his most important job in revitalizing the Browns franchise is to get a franchise quarterback. For the purposes of this activity, it doesn't really matter who it is actually. Let's just call him QB #1. (I personally think it is going to be Darnold 90% chance, 10% chance Josh Allen).
#2 Overall - QB#2
This is where it starts to get interesting. The Giants clearly have a few issues that need addressing: their QB situation, their need to rebuild their OLine, to name a few. In my opinion, there are really only three practical options for the Giants. The first is them falling in love with Barkley and trusting Manning's next few years. The second is a team like Denver or the Bills offering a lot of money to move up for a QB. The last is them drafting a QB like Rosen, stealing an option away from the Jets and setting up a nice little succession plan. The latter two are the more likely options. Thus, in my opinion there is a >80% chance the pick here will be a QB, whether it is the Giants or Denver (Bills would probably have to give up way too much to move to #2 after the Jets deal). My personal opinion is that the Giants fall in love with Rosen and give him a chance to sit behind Manning for a year or two in a Rodgers type situation. That could help him get acclimated to the NY market and media and maybe even with Manning's mentoring tone down the public nature of some of his extreme views.
#3 Overall - Jets: QB#3
The Jets are probably hoping that the Giants stay put and draft a non QB like Nelson or Barkley. That would give them the 2nd choice of the top QBs. Realistically that probably isn't going to happen. But regardless, they didn't give up 3 second round picks to pick up Barkley or a non-QB. The 3rd QB of the draft is probably going to be picked up by the Jets.
#4 Overall - Browns: Chubb or Trade Down with the Bills and the Bills select QB#4
Unfortunately the Browns are going to be the X-Factor in whether or not Chubb falls all the way down to us. In my opinion, there is no way they should give up the opportunity to have a Chubb-Garrett tandem for the next decade. That would give them a potential Freeney - Mathis duo where both guys could reasonably be 10+ sack guys. The other option is that the Bills are desperate for a QB and don't want to miss out on the remaining 4th option (aka Mayfield) and give up the farm to move up and draft him. This is the scenario that we want and should hope to God for.
#5 Overall - Denver: If #4 is Chubb, remaining QB. If#4 is QB, Nelson or Fitzpatrick
Denver is in an interesting spot. They don't necessarily NEED a QB but if the 4th QB is still on the board (especially if its Josh Allen), then it could make sense to draft him and have him sit behind Keenum for a year or two at the very least. If the top 4 QBs are gone, then they probably draft Nelson or Fitzpatrick.
#6 Overall - Colts: If Chubb and Barkley are still on the board, see how much the Bucs would give up to be able to choose who they want. If they don't give up a lot, draft Chubb. Otherwise, draft Barkley if he is there (the dude is a generational talent and is worth more than another trade down or Nelson). Dangle the pick to everybody else and see if you can get more value then Nelson. Otherwise, draft Nelson and be extremely happy that your last option was a generational player at the guard position and a player that can be an All-Pro fixture for many years.