masnerj

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  1. masnerj

    Daily dose of optimism for Andrew Luck's return

    I am not a doctor or a physical therapy professional but I think many people, especially those in the national media, are getting Luck's rehab completely wrong. As someone that has some background knowledge in rehab, etc: I don't think his not throwing is a matter of him NOT being able to throw but its a matter of no reason for him to throw UNTIL his shoulder is perfectly rehabbed, strengthened, etc. Andrew Luck could probably throw the ball 70 yards right now but I wonder if the idea is more about him getting his mechanics back, getting his strength 100% (and more!!!), and being able to be set up for long-time success as a thrower. Man hasn't thrown a football in over a year and remember this fact that was on some article: Andrew Luck after his initial shoulder injury/tweak etc several years ago had actually changed the way he threw the ball to COMPENSATE for the injury and the problems he was having. That kinda stuff doesn't just naturally go away, especially as you are trying to come back from an injury and you are mentally and physically delayed.
  2. masnerj

    Chris McCain - New DE

    Simon might get cut.....just a thought
  3. Scenario: CLE #1: Mayfield, QB NYG #2: Darnold, QB NYJ #3: Allen, QB CLE #4: Trade down with a QB-needy team (most likely) or Barkley/Chubb (Barkley more likely here) DEN #5: If the above is a trade and a QB, then this pick will be Chubb or Nelson (won't be Barkley), if the above is Barkley, then this pick will be Chubb IND #6: Either way, we are going to get a massive trade down with a team like the Bills for a guy like Rosen, OR get Chubb/Barkley. If Mayfield goes #1 overall, mark my words: we get Barkley/Chubb OR trade down to 11 or 12 for a MASSIVE Haul.
  4. I think if we don't get Chubb first round (or Davenport/Landry) if we trade down, chances are very very good that we pick up a pass-rusher in the second or third round. Teams don't always need a star pass-rusher to win. Many teams do it by committee and if we can get multiple solid pass-rushers on our team like Simon and Sheard (along with whatever development Basham might show), then we will be fine. Shoutout to Hurst, keep an eye on him. My gut tells me the Colts are looking at him and hoping they are in a good position (and good value) to pick him up. If we trade down in the first or if he starts falling, the Colts would be a GREAT fit. He is a quick, first-step disrupting interior lineman who can play in our "quick" 4-3 defense. Remember guys, the idea is that we don't necessarily need to jump from worst to best in one straight go. Last year's free agency with Sheard and Simon suggested otherwise. If we can get back to average this upcoming year, that would be completely fine with me if we use the 1st (or other premium picks) to plug other holes like ILB, OL, etc.
  5. masnerj

    The Current State of The Colts Roster (March)

    I still disagree. Once we get into the organized offseason activities and training camp, you'll see that he will be playing a non-middle linebacker role.
  6. masnerj

    The Current State of The Colts Roster (March)

    Great write-up! I just had a few things to point out: - John Simon will most likely play a linebacker position as he isn't big enough to play 4-3 DE. Sheard is a perfect fit for the 4-3 DE - I am not so sure about Hairston on the outside. In all likelihood we have Desir and Wilson on the outside and maybe a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick in the room to push for a starting position. Hairston has shown a nice niche playing slot corner.
  7. I might get flak for this but I don't think Landry is a good fit for our 4-3 defense. He is too small and would need to bulk up in order to play as effective 4 down DE in our scheme. Otherwise he would only be a pass-rushing specialist (think Tim Williams from last year). There is no question the guy has some pass-rush abilities but he is probably a better 3-4 OLB then a 4-3 DE. And we all know how much our team loves "scheme-fit" with releasing Hankins and all.
  8. Green was actually not terrible at CB last year when we had a bunch of injuries and tried him out at that position (when the whole Vontae Davis and Q Wilson situation was happening). He certainly looked a lot better than at safety.... The issue with him at safety is that he still can't recognize and react to plays at an NFL level while being back there. All the speed and size in the world won't help you if you don't have the instincts at safety. At least at corner, he put his size and speed directly to use (though I will admit he did get crossed over a few times). I was actually surprised by how decent he looked at corner. Especially because during draft time, most teams (if not all except for us) were looking into him as a potential cover corner type player. I suggest that (if we keep Desir and Q Wilson at the top of the depth chart and don't make any crazy new additions) that we try him out at cornerback again. I think a full offseason and a year's worth of practice playing corner could make him a serviceable cornerback in the NFL. If he learns to not bit hard on double moves, he could even pass as a starter. His size and speed will help and he is currently stuck behind a crowded defensive backfield in Farley, Geathers, and Hooker (with a strong possibility of another piece through the draft). Just an idea...
  9. We have a very exciting upcoming draft. BDB just pulled off a wonderful trade, getting 3 second rounders from the Jets in return for moving down 3 spots from #3 to #6 overall. For now, the top 5 is set and will likely remain the same till draft night. This post is about dissecting each pick and team and looking at the possibilities that exist for the Colts at #6. Alright, let's get to it. #1 Overall - Browns: QB#1 It is widely expected that the Browns will draft a QB here. They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal (for a running back) and are trying to extend Duke Johnson. Hyde + Johnson would be a very solid RB committee and drafting Barkley here would be a waste. They finally made the move to hire a competent GM in Dorsey and you can bet that his most important job in revitalizing the Browns franchise is to get a franchise quarterback. For the purposes of this activity, it doesn't really matter who it is actually. Let's just call him QB #1. (I personally think it is going to be Darnold 90% chance, 10% chance Josh Allen). #2 Overall - QB#2 This is where it starts to get interesting. The Giants clearly have a few issues that need addressing: their QB situation, their need to rebuild their OLine, to name a few. In my opinion, there are really only three practical options for the Giants. The first is them falling in love with Barkley and trusting Manning's next few years. The second is a team like Denver or the Bills offering a lot of money to move up for a QB. The last is them drafting a QB like Rosen, stealing an option away from the Jets and setting up a nice little succession plan. The latter two are the more likely options. Thus, in my opinion there is a >80% chance the pick here will be a QB, whether it is the Giants or Denver (Bills would probably have to give up way too much to move to #2 after the Jets deal). My personal opinion is that the Giants fall in love with Rosen and give him a chance to sit behind Manning for a year or two in a Rodgers type situation. That could help him get acclimated to the NY market and media and maybe even with Manning's mentoring tone down the public nature of some of his extreme views. #3 Overall - Jets: QB#3 The Jets are probably hoping that the Giants stay put and draft a non QB like Nelson or Barkley. That would give them the 2nd choice of the top QBs. Realistically that probably isn't going to happen. But regardless, they didn't give up 3 second round picks to pick up Barkley or a non-QB. The 3rd QB of the draft is probably going to be picked up by the Jets. #4 Overall - Browns: Chubb or Trade Down with the Bills and the Bills select QB#4 Unfortunately the Browns are going to be the X-Factor in whether or not Chubb falls all the way down to us. In my opinion, there is no way they should give up the opportunity to have a Chubb-Garrett tandem for the next decade. That would give them a potential Freeney - Mathis duo where both guys could reasonably be 10+ sack guys. The other option is that the Bills are desperate for a QB and don't want to miss out on the remaining 4th option (aka Mayfield) and give up the farm to move up and draft him. This is the scenario that we want and should hope to God for. #5 Overall - Denver: If #4 is Chubb, remaining QB. If#4 is QB, Nelson or Fitzpatrick Denver is in an interesting spot. They don't necessarily NEED a QB but if the 4th QB is still on the board (especially if its Josh Allen), then it could make sense to draft him and have him sit behind Keenum for a year or two at the very least. If the top 4 QBs are gone, then they probably draft Nelson or Fitzpatrick. #6 Overall - Colts: If Chubb and Barkley are still on the board, see how much the Bucs would give up to be able to choose who they want. If they don't give up a lot, draft Chubb. Otherwise, draft Barkley if he is there (the dude is a generational talent and is worth more than another trade down or Nelson). Dangle the pick to everybody else and see if you can get more value then Nelson. Otherwise, draft Nelson and be extremely happy that your last option was a generational player at the guard position and a player that can be an All-Pro fixture for many years.
  10. masnerj

    Chris Ballard’s Moneyball (BallardBall)

    People don't realize, his moves are about bringing up the talent of our team, tier by tier. With the terrible roster of a team that we have had recently, it is going to take a lot more than just a couple 13+ million/yr players to get us back on track. On the other hand, you target guys like Simon, Sheard, Autry, Hankins, Woods who are mid-to-upper tier players (but NOT superstar status) but who you can get reasonably for 4-8 million a year. You grab many of these players, who are high upside and often have personal drive to excel in a full-time role. Then you slowly raise the talent level of the entire team. That is how you build a dynasty. You need to have a solid, relatively cheap base that performs a base-level and then you supplement with superstars (whether through free-agency or high draft picks) to get to the championship level for a few seasons. We will be fine. As long as he comes out of the draft with atleast some Simon Sheard type players, we are good.
  11. People are freaking out that we haven't signed any major player in the NFL free agency. We have missed out on Hitchens, Norwell, Robinson, and others. However, people don't realize this but Ballard prefers a certain type in free agency: Mid-Tier players (average-to-above-average players in the NFL) that are young and/or have upside. Just take a look at the previous year with players like Sheard, Simon, Woods, Hankins. These guys are majority under 7 million a year and are at the very least average starters but at their best flash pro-bowl potential. They do the most important thing in a rebuilding roster: plug holes with something more than a band-aid. They shore up our depth and overall talent. And the best part is that you can get many of them by having cap space and NOT chasing the above-averages starters that are getting All Pro money. Just take a look at this article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763444-doug-farrars-top-50-players-on-the-2018-nfl-free-agent-market And you'll quickly see just how much talent there is left out there at positions of concern/need of an upgrade prior to the draft. I can easily see a situation where after the initial "glow" or crazy of free agency, Ballard goes in and easily swipes up multiple impact players for less than 8 million a year. You better bet your money Ballard has a list more detailed and refined than this. He knows what he wants, and I think we'll see how he can "stack" up good free agencies as well as drafts.
  12. This would be a dream scenario to be completely honest. Well Done! Man, if somehow we can trade down a few spots AND still get Chubb, we would easily pick up some nice extra picks!
  13. I think we need to realize that even if Norwell isn't a "done deal" to the Giants, the chances are still more that he signs elsewhere than he signs here. There are quite a few teams that do have the cap space that would LOVE to sign an All-Pro guard. Not to mention, Indy isn't exactly the most attractive FA destination for most. People should realize that just because you have the money and desire for a certain player, it isn't even close to a done deal.
  14. Guys, I think the issue here is how we classify Bradley Chubb. I am hearing phrases like "rock-solid pash-rusher" or "complete 4-3 DE with no overall weaknesses" and then I am hearing things like "elite pass-rusher" and "top overall defensive player in the draft." The problem is whether or not we consider Bradley Chubb to be an ELITE, All-Pro potential PASS-RUSHER. Nobody will deny that in all likelihood, Bradley Chubb's floor is that of an above-average 4-3 DE who gets around 6-7 sacks a year and is a good run-defender as well and never comes off the field. HOWEVER, that is not what the #3 pick overall is for (atleast in today's NFL). Just go back to Ballard's words about what the #3 pick should ideally be. He used words and phrases like "transformational talent", "game-changer," etc. At this point, throwing needs out of the window to an extent (which any self-respecting NFL draft strategy should have," there is no question that those phrases belong to Saquon Barkley more so than they do to Bradley Chubb. And looking back at history, those phrases belonged easily to Clowney and Garrett. Unfortunately, Chubb probably isn't at the same level as Bosa, Garrett, Clowney, etc in terms of pass-rush talent. Sure he might be a better run-defender coming out or have an overall better solid body of work but that isn't what a top 5 pick is about. You need a game-breaker type player if you want to pick at #3 (unless your team is desperate for a QB in which case you probably reach for a Josh Allen or settle with Rosen type player). As much as I love Bradley Chubb and his extremely high floor, I don't think his ceiling is high enough to warrant the use of the #3 pick. If we somehow trade back to like 6-8 and grab him than I will go crazy because we would have picked up extra premium picks AND gotten him at a pick that he is suited for. I hate to agree with @BlueShoe because I personally would rather have a defensive player than an offensive player but I have been convinced over the last few weeks that Barkley fits exactly with that game-breaker type talent way more so than Chubb or anybody else in the draft. And to be honest, that might be why Ballard wasn't jumping out of his seat when describing SB in an interview (or was it his press conference?). He used "good player" lol. If Barkley is there at 3, you grab him no questions asked (unless a team gives up the farm to trade up for him). If Barkley is gone, I don't think you can grab Chubb at #3 and be "happy." At a pick like #3 you gotta be able to grab a player and start jumping up and down in the war-room and be excited for a game-changing talent. If Barkley is gone, that means you probably will have several teams looking to trade up for the 2nd QB pick in which case you move down and comfortably select out of Chubb, Nelson, etc in a BPA mode AND enjoy additional 1st/2nd round talent this year or next also in a BPA mode.
  15. masnerj

    Schefter reporting campbell is the favorite

    I want Schwartz. I think with Ballard as GM, he could be kept in check so he doesn't get too out of control but we need a fiery guy that can spark this franchise after all that has happened. As long as Luck comes back healthy I am not too worried about the state of the franchise moving forward considering we will win (assuming he is healthy) regardless of who is head coach.