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  1. The bigger issue is what free agent LT would you feel comfortable paying? Trent Williams, Alejandro Villanueva, and Russel Okung will all be 33 next year. We’ve seen first-hand how quickly injuries can accumulate for a big man on the wrong side of 30. There’s an argument to be made that a guy like Williams might be more along the lines of Andrew Whitworth or Jason Peters, but at north of $60 million in guarantees it’s a pretty risky bet.
  2. In fairness, he and his co-host did break a bunch of coaching news about Colts assistants this offseason. I think they definitely have a source somewhere in the organization — probably a coach who’s been on their podcast.
  3. Yannick Ngokue, Shaq Barrett, and the Matt Judon are some of the highest profile names. Bud Dupree is another, but he’s coming off an ACL. Romeo Okwara and Carl Lawson both had really strong years in 2020 but have limited track records before that.
  4. At the end of the day, money is what draws free agents. If the Colts give them more of it than other teams, they won’t have a problem signing free agents. There are caveats to that of course — players near the end of the line who are ring shopping and players looking to maximize performance on one-year, prove-it deals before hitting the market again — but in most other scenarios money talks.
  5. It’ll be interesting to see how KC responds moving forward. Obviously they have the hardest part figured out with a generational QB in hand. But team building gets much trickier with Mahomes off his cheap rookie deal and now making $45 million a year. Both starting tackles will be 32 and coming off serious injury next season. Travis Kelce will also turn 32 and while he’s obviously still amazing there aren’t a lot of receivers who maintain production through their mid-thirties. And they’re underwater on cap space so probably can’t afford to bring back both (either?) Sammy Watkins and
  6. Maybe this guy has a line on this story, who knows? But it might be a good idea to take this source with a grain of salt:
  7. 4/40 seems high, especially given the cap constraints most teams will be working with this year. By PFF coverage grade, Griffin was the #46 CB in 2020 (64.8). That was a step down from 2019, where he had a 76 grade but better than his mediocre 2018 grade (51.9). 2019 looks like an outlier at this point. I do like him as a fit for Eberflus’ defense — he’s big, long, and a really good athlete (96 SPARQ with a 4.38 40 at 194 pounds). He played safety in college and I think he might unlock some potential playing off and coming downhill in a cover-2 versus pressing at the line
  8. I think Wilson has the biggest range between ceiling and floor among Wilson/Fields/Lance. Lance is the farthest away from his ceiling but looks to have a Kapernick-esque floor due to his size, running ability, and arm strength. Wilson has great tape this year but a slight body type for the position. He’s already had surgery on his throwing hand and a torn labrum in each shoulder — with the one on his throwing arm also requiring surgery. SLAP injuries in particular are a big red flag for a QB.
  9. I’d do that too. But that alone isn’t likely to get Indy up to #2. KC had to give up #27, their third that year, and a first next to move up to #10 to select Mahomes. That’s pretty close to the value on the Rich Hill trade chart when the first rounder next season is discounted by half (which seems to be a fairly common way to value picks in subsequent drafts). An extra third alone wouldn’t get the Colts up to #2. Using the Hill draft model and same depreciation, to get up to #2, the Colts would have to give up something like: -2021 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks -202
  10. The problem with Brown is you have to pay him after the season — on the same timeline as Braden Smith. And then Nelson the year after that. You just can’t afford pay top three money to your C, RT, LT, and LG. The draft is really the only option that makes sense financially.
  11. Seems like wishful thinking. Jacksonville, NY Jets, Atlanta, Detroit, Carolina, Denver, San Francisco, New England, Chicago, and Washington all have QB needs to a varying degree and all pick before the Colts. Outside of maybe Ryan, there’s no incumbent starter on any of those teams that would preclude them front drafting a QB of the future. Pittsburgh and New Orleans also need a future QB and could be in the market to trade up in front of Indy too. Even with Stafford and potentially Watson available for trade, if we want one of the top 4/5 QBs, we’re likely going to have to move up t
  12. Williams, Okung, and Villanueva will all be 33 next season — same age as Costanzo. Maybe Ballard signs one as a stopgap but it shouldn’t preclude him from drafting a left tackle early.
  13. Nice work. I might pass on Rhodes and try to get younger at CB (Shaquile Griffin) and let Houston walk but overall I can’t fault your plan. I do think you’re underselling the comp to move up a bit. I think we’ll need to trade to 6/7 to make sure we get one of the top four (depending on what the new Lions GM decides to do with Stafford). Next year’s QB class looks pretty bleak on paper. And with Carolina, Denver, San Francisco, New England, WFT, and Chicago likely in the QB market this offseason, I’m envisioning a serious buyers market. I’d guess a first and a day two pick this yea
  14. Azeez Ojulari - EDGE, Georgia Ticks a bunch of Ballard boxes. 6.5 sacks and 9.5 TFLs in 9 games this season. 114 SPARQ as a high school senior, including a 40 inch vertical. First freshman team captain in Kirby Smart’s tenure at Georgia. Will be interesting to see his pass rush productivity metrics because Georgia plays him in coverage a decent amount. He’ll get knocked a bit for his size but he’s strong enough to set the edge and his frame doesn’t seem maxed out yet.
  15. I could see it. On the other hand, the fifth year option isn’t as valuable for teams in the new cba — especially for teams trading up late to snag a QB. It’s now tied to positional value instead of draft slot and fully guaranteed when exercised. The option will now be the same as the transition tag. For QBs in 2020, that was a little over $24 million, only a couple million less than the franchise tag. The value also becomes equal to the franchise tag if a player makes the pro bowl twice in his first three years. There are still benefits — teams still get an extra year of co
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