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Posts posted by ColtsBlueFL

  1. 17 hours ago, holeymoley99 said:

    Think he is saying Fisher starts game 1 which is still a viable option, some reports have him ready by August but so hard to tell with this type of injury.


    Not saying he won't (well, maybe I am...) but If he starts game 1, then his recovery will indeed be in the stratosphere of recoveries joining the likes of Adrian Peterson (ACL) and Terrell Suggs (Achilles). Those don't happen very often.


    9 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

    Why are people so down on Tevi?! He isn't who you want as a long term or even on a one-year gap solution, but he has the skill and experience to be a solid option at LT for 3-4 weeks. He is our best option


    For a high priority position, Pat Kirwan believes a 'decent' backup will allow at least 50% win percentage over a small number of games. (IE: 2 wins and 2 losses over 4 games). Anyone have analytics (like VORP or such) on Left Tackles?



    • Like 1
  2. 9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

    Truly hoping he's an outlier. and... Hoping he has good biology/genetics lol. 


    I think we all hope it, but some of us are not going to 'bank' on it. Desire it, yes. Expect it, not quite.



    Yup. I think Mack will heal faster though,


    May well be, as everyone is different, and not predictable.  Drew Brees had a similar (and even more intense) shoulder surgery than Luck. He recovered notably quicker than Andrew. Luck just seemed to be the outlier in the 'other' direction in healing time on his injuries; taking slightly longer.  Terrell Suggs (Achilles) and Adrian Peterson (ACL) outliers in quick healing and return to playing.


    How Dayo and Eric respond is still in question, but the Colts doctors and training staff know where they are physically versus the projected timelines. Apparently, it's on track or better from what we fans can tell.



    but his return, or level of performance I should say, is my main concern. You have to think it went well thus far with him out there on the field, even in a limited role. I just hope that in addition to plain healing, he doesn't have trust issues. Would love for him to have a nice year, and get a nice gig with someone after this year.


    I hope the best for him, but I know with his injury, JT and Hines in the mix, it will be hard for him to rack up incredible stats. But I hope he shines, but I'm not expecting it. I'm interested to see how all these injuries play out.




    • Like 2
  3. On 5/20/2021 at 2:49 PM, dw49 said:


    I totally agree with that and obviously Colt management does also. 


    Well, they know whether either (or both) Fisher and Dayo have hit or surpassed their 'milestones' in recovery.


    32 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

    People aren't hell bent on anything. They are just aware of the basic recovery times associated with the injury.


    Yes, and the somewhat reduced ability for many those returning quickly. OTOH, Dr.'s and AT's are pushing for notably earlier starting of rehab; all made possible by limited open type surgical techniques and less time (and atrophy) in casts/or boot before starting range of motion exercises. this could potentially slice off 4-6 weeks off recovery time. But what cannot be altered by surgical technique or an early and rigorous rehab is biology.  There's a mean, and outliers above and below the time frame(s) and individually patient specific recovery ability.


    32 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

    Mack was injured in week one. So it's been almost 9 months. He also is not running drills with the team. He's been working on the side by himself from everything I read. And that's about normal for the rehab process.


    I'd also add that Mack is 25, 6ft, 210, and the picture of health as most RBs are. Fisher is 30, 6-7, and 315 lbs. Not saying Fisher can't recover quickly, but it's typically easier for younger guys to recover, and going to guess size adds another dimension. 

    RB is one of the worst positions for those recovering from an Achilles and attempting a return to sport. Hoping the best for Mack.





    • Like 1
  4. 17 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

    Hmmn... interesting. 

    Interested seeing details of contract and what that means to Blankenship. 

    We definitely could use a upgrade at K.




    17 hours ago, JediXMan said:

    Ballard isn’t playing with competition on all levels. Blankenship had a bad game against Bills WC game.  Also he was 1/4 on kicks 49 yards or longer last season.


    Devastating when your opponent can knock in a 54 yarder to beat you, but your team vacillates between kicking the FG or going for it on 4th down beyond 49 yards.


    27 minutes ago, chad72 said:

    Blankenship was consistent,


    Inside of 50 yards, yes he was. Hit 32 out of 37 field goal attempts (87%) and made 43 out of 45 of his extra point chances.


    27 minutes ago, chad72 said:

    the distance when it got to 49 and higher is what made us very very nervous. If nothing else, it upped the level of competition. I am all for this move.


    If he improves there, he wins his job back in his sophomore season, IMO.


    • Like 3
  5. 50 minutes ago, Shive said:

    I lost it at the Cowboys... Didn't even give them brand name. :lol:


    Actually, they gave them Walmart's store brand, Great Value! Not even the real Pop Tarts brand, but a discount generic version. :spit:

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  6. 17 hours ago, dew5150 said:

    Seahawks @ Colts 1pm on Fox per Jimmy Johnson

     Oh dear...



    15 hours ago, coming on strong said:

    First game of the year we host Seahawks. I saw it on colts Twitter page. Very hard first game for us .  


    You know it.


    15 hours ago, coming on strong said:

    Seahawks have a good offense but their defense has been going down hill . They have weaknesses on their offensive line and defense.  


     Maybe, but let me throw out some factual info. Carson Wentz record versus the Seahawks is 0 wins and 5 losses!  So evidently Pete Carroll know how to have the D play vs. Wentz.


    Carson has 6 TD's, 6 interceptions, and has taken 15 sacks vs. Seattle. 


    Seems like a tough first assignment as a Colt to me.


    • Thanks 1
  7. 3 hours ago, TheMose said:

    Achilles surgeries and rehab have made tremendous progress in the past decade. Look at Emmanuel Sanders being ready for OTAs and preseason after a December injury.


    His Injury/repair was December 5th.  (Almost 2 months earlier than Fisher)  He got 1 catch for 5 yards in a pre-season game (where they don't play the whole game) about 8 1/2 months later (August 19), or 257 days.  Fisher would have to make his first game appearance on about October 17, 2021 to be comparable.  It seems many teams are accelerating rehab on players that had limited or mini-open repair Technique.  And things don't always work the same for every player.


    Take Sidney Jones. For example. He tore his Achilles at his pro day in 2017. He fell from a certain first round pick to the Eagles in the second round at #43.  Jones also had the new tech mini-open Achilles repair performed by Dr. R. Anderson on March 21, 2017 which is just a couple months shy of his 21st birthday. 




    He did not get activated onto the Eagles active 53 roster until December 30, 2017, the Eagles final regular season game. (It was just slightly more than 9 months in recovery). He was not active for any post season play (Super Bowl season) that year.


    He was waived by the Eagles a couple years later, and has suffered hamstring and Achilles injuries with the Jags since.


    Here was his 'talk' and buzz after his surgery-


    Sidney Jones said he’s certain he’ll play in 2017 — and play like the first-round pick he believes he still deserves to be.

    “I’m the best corner in the draft, plain and simple,” Jones told USA TODAY Sports. “Don’t look at the possibility of me not playing this first year....  ... I can play basically right when the season starts."

    Ummm, no. I'm sorry, he did not. He was only 20-21 years old, and also had the 'latest' improvements in surgical technique for Achilles repair. It was just 3-4 years ago.


    You can't make a comp based upon just one other person, otherwise Terrell Suggs would be the target and not the outlier.


    3 hours ago, TheMose said:

    I never understood why people assume the worst when they have the bare minimum information about the patient. I rather trust the people that actually have the inside knowledge. Especially the doctors that no doubt gave Ballard a positive prognosis 


    Some don't assume the worst, but they are aware of the averages.


    • Like 4
  8. 3 hours ago, BlueCollarColts said:

    A 100% Tevi might be slightly better than a 75% Fisher (going based off their careers) but I think the goal is a 75% Fisher is going to be closer to 90% Fisher by the time the playoffs roll around. I don't think anyone is expecting Fisher to be his old self from Day 1, but where he is a few months after returning you'd hope is at a better place than he is when he immediately returns.


    Aye, but here is the rub. All (anyone that disagrees, show one that doesn't demonstrate this) of the studies show (that tracked this data) there is a very noticeable degradation in play for those that return to sport. Some 20 to 25%. Not for a few weeks or a month or two, but the rest of the whole season. Any marked improvement to where they were prior to injury mostly occurs the 'next' season.  I do not expect Fisher to improve very much once (if) he is inserted into the starting line up.  If he is 90% by the playoffs, I'll believe he was 85% or more in his return. It could happen, but I feel by history the odds would differ.



    • Like 2
  9. 52 minutes ago, BlueCollarColts said:

    What recent players have actually taken over a year to return from a torn Achilles? I can't think of any in recent memory. The timeline is pretty consistently around 9 months for guys now.


    Finish the conclusion so that the end result is clear for everybody. The only study recently that evaluated those with an average 9 months to return to sport also concluded this-


    "While the incidence of Achilles tendon ruptures in NFL players, especially in the preseason, has increased substantially, more players are returning to play after injury and with better post-injury performance as compared to the previous two decades. These injuries should still be considered potentially career-altering as 26% of players never return to play after Achilles tendon ruptures and there is still a net decrease in power-ratings (performance) by 22% for those who do return."


    I ask, is a 75% to 80% Eric Fisher better than a 95%-99% Tevi?  I'm curious.  I hope so.



    4 hours ago, tvturner said:

    Looks like there is a lot of certified doctors here


    LOL.  I'm not a true MD, nor DO (and not a PhD either)


    But I sometimes play one on teh interwebs- (j/k!!)




    This picture was of me taken 5 years pre Covid-19 in the control room of a hybrid operating room suite (which had advanced X-Ray imaging equipment permanently installed) before a case. I do not recall the city or state. I retired 3 years later on 12/31/2018.


    Before retirement,  I worked for a Major International medical imaging device company for over 25 years as a Zone / Senior Clinical Education and Support Specialist in Image Guided Therapy {IGT}. I had worked right along side Interventional Cardiologists and Radiologists at a hospital for many years before that), and worked closely with some of the best and brightest Interventional Vascular specialists, Interventional Cardiologists, Neurosurgeons, and Vascular surgeons in their operating room suites and procedure labs around the U.S. (even invited to Grand Cayman to work once!!  Loved that trip. That and in Anchorage, AK).


    Anyone in the medical field or on hospital staff knows if you (as in knowledge, skill set, and need) are not 'Absolutely Essential' to being part of the operating room team for and during a procedure, you just plain aren't wanted nor allowed in.


    I also know a few Nephrologists, OB/GYN doctors (mostly because of my wife's occupation; an OB/GYN Sonographer, but she's ARDMS certified in all areas of Ultrasound), Radiologists, and Orthopedic surgeons. I really try not to 'talk shop' with them if at all possible. But can, and do at specific times.


    I really haven't ever before, nor even now really feel like divulging my work past. But there it is, in a quite shortened bio. Not a doctor.  :)





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  11. 4 hours ago, cbear said:

    I have yet to see anyone say his entire season is up in the air. Part of it..sure. If we're playing the guessing game, I'd say 99% he plays at least 10 games. I wouldn't have signed him for that personally, but I have no concerns he misses the entire season at this point. 


    Maybe 11 games, if he returns after reserve/PUP served (because I think he makes it onto it.


    4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    Ballard has access to his doctors and access to be able to talk to Fisher on a daily basis, none of us do in here. So at this point, Ballard must think Fisher will be ready to play most of the season. It would make no sense for Ballard to sign him to a 1 year deal if he wasn't sure Fisher would be back. I am rolling with Ballard on this one, he knows more than we do.


    Colts physicians will have all of the discussions and get all of the medical data on Fisher. Ballard will talk with the Colts medical team about what they know/recommend.


    3 hours ago, Superman said:


    He fit the profile of the kind of FA the Colts pursued last season -- guys who don't miss games due to injury. The connection between the Colts and Fisher is obvious, but I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be back nine months after a ruptured Achilles. 


    Leno seemed to be guy that would be on the radar. And I think its almost unrealistic to think Fisher is going to be in game day shape in just short of 7 months (mid August). In my mind, if he had minimally open procedure and no (especially nerve) issues, with a solid accelerated successful rehab, he could possibly get on the field in 9 months or so, but at a degraded (75-80% ?) performance capacity, in my estimation. Time will tell.


    3 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

    I get too optimistic at times so take my comments with a grain of salt but don't you think it is more likely that they've reviewed his specific injury, see that he is ahead of schedule, and going to be able to play this year and that is why they signed him than he fits the general studies/reports that you are relying on.   I know you are defending your position and it is logically sound but you don't have the information on this specific injury or his recovery while they do.


    I just dont see ballard signing someone to 9.84 when he doesn't think there is a strong chance they play for most of the season/playoffs.


    Certainly they feel the potential is there, but I'm pretty sure no Doctor is going to guarantee them that.  There's still risk and will be until he actually gets cleared to 'Play".  And if/when he does, at what level will he perform? Is a 75% or 80% Fisher better than a >95% Tevi (or other LT) ??  I don't know.


    My gut feeling says anywhere after reserve/PUP time frame (which I feel Fisher gets put on) passes during the season (at a minimum). Maybe by Halloween? we will later see.


    • Like 2
  12. 6 hours ago, Superman said:

    Such a weird deal. We're gonna pay him $9.4m to rehab his Achilles, and there's a strong chance he won't even play for us. 


    Of course, the team and doctors know where he is. And maybe the deal is structured in a way that we're not on the hook if he can't go. But still... I'm on the fence on this one. Would have gone with a more reliable option.


    If, for some reason, he can't go, do you think the Colts might have a 'split' contract (amount) on his P5 salary written in?  I expect he will be on the active/PUP pre-season, and very possibly to start the regular season on reserve/PUP list (missing the first 6 games.  But that just me and my expectations.  I want to be more optimistic, but a Mid August return in football shape is way to rosy for me.



    5 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

    they say he should be ready to go around mid August 


    5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    I know you are going by past history of this injury but I doubt the Colts would sign him for 1 year if he couldn't play at all. Rappaport is saying Mid-August from what he has been hearing. I am not sure if I believe that but I also wouldn't rule out that Fisher plays 3/4 of the season as in back by October if his rehab goes great. So far I have no reason to believe his rehab has had any setbacks. 


    I do not trust Rapoport (nor his source) on this projection on Fishers return status. I caution those that do, do not be upset and angry if he isn't 'ready' by mid August.



    As of now I love the signing, we will just have to wait and see when he gets healthy and comes back.


    Keep an eye out for active (summer/training camp) and possibly later, the reserve (reg. season), PUP lists.


    5 hours ago, TheNextGM said:

    Love it.

    IF he plays week 1 the Colts will have the best Oline in football.


    Cant wait for the schedule release on Wednesday.


    Hopefully he can and will be 100%. Will make Colts fans very happy. But mark me down as he might be ready mid-late October, and will be at 75-80%.  Even with a great surgeon, perfect operation, and off the charts rehab, you can't rush biology aspect. IE:, the low blood supply necessary for proper full healing, the excessive muscle atrophy that occurs, etc...


    My feeling is he might be end up being 'cleared for full activity' in/by end of July, but it may take as long as another 3 months or more (ask @TomDiggs) of football drills/practice just to get somewhat back into playing shape by 9 months. And I feel that even that may be still too early and could be a contributing reason why football players that do return so early also have notably decreased performance during the year following their return. Cleared for full activity and cleared to play are two totally separate things.


    Ran across this, to go with all of the other studies discussed in another { Left Tackle(Leno,Fisher,Okung?)/Sam Tevi at LT (MERGE) }  thread-


    “Seventy-eight Achilles tendon ruptures were identified in professional football players during the 2010-2015 NFL seasons. 58% of these injuries occurred during the preseason. Of those that suffered an Achilles tendon rupture, 26% did not ever return to play in the NFL. Players who did return to play in the NFL took an average of 9 months to recover after the date of injury. Across all positions, there was a net decrease in power ratings by 22% and a net decrease in approximate value by 23% over 3 years following player return after Achilles tendon rupture. Across all positions, running backs saw the biggest decrease in production with a 78% decrease over 3 years post-injury in both power ratings and approximate value.”


    The fact they signed him gives hope he will contribute, at some point. When and how ell are the questions.




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  13. 4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

    Given the info available to us dumb fans, the more I read on run blocking success rate (gap), the more I prefer Leno. Add in age, and injury, I just don't see Fisher being worth the risk. Fisher is likely better in pass pro, but that's just not enough for me to forget all the other stuff.

     That's one of the reasons for these discussion boards. People get some info, watch some game/tapes, pick their person. Others gather stats, watch different tape/games, get unknown before (to the public) medical data and maybe go a different route. Nobody is getting paid by the organization, and nobody is on the hot seat of losing their job if they are way off in their 'predictions.'.  It's fun conjecture and possibly sharing new information or at least different perspectives.


    • Like 2
  14. On 5/7/2021 at 6:09 PM, Zoltan said:


    It is outside the standard deviation for the median and for their OL numbers which were 341 with +/- of 98.1 but I wish they used newer data because as I pointed out above they used surgeries from 1958-2016, so it makes the data harder to use for players today. Not saying its bad data.


    For those that didn't see it, here's the exclusionary flow chart of the surgeries from 1958 - 2016




    On 5/7/2021 at 7:28 PM, ColtsBlueFL said:


    Did you compare that to this more recent study, conducted with 80 NFL players identified as having Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons?





    I count two studies (one with 95 cases, the other with 80, one of which Dr.Parekh was involved in) having a nearly identical average of a 72.5% return to sport rate-


    "One previous study investigated RTS and postoperative performance for players who underwent Achilles tendon repair in the NFL. The prior study demonstrated an RTS of 72.5% in 80 NFL athletes. The RTS from this prior study is nearly identical to the results of the present study with an RTS of 72.4% in 95 NFL athletes."

    "Following Achilles tendon repair, less than 75% of players returned to the NFL. Postoperative career length was 1 season shorter than matched controls. No difference was observed in the number of games per season played com-pared to matched controls. Postoperative performance scores were significantly worse for RBs and LBs compared to preoperative, and LBs had significantly worse postoperative performance when compared to matched controls."


    and the very small PARS mini open study at 78%.   I see a trend of some surgeons trying to move from open technique to a limited or mini-open technique (as opposed to a pure percutaneous repair).


    Dr. Purekh:


    “but the problem with a pure percutaneous solution is that you can’t see anything, so you can actually pierce the nerve.” The miniature-open technique requires only a 3 cm incision while the traditional approach of surgically treating Achilles tendon ruptures required an 8 cm to 12 cm incision.

    “One of the biggest issues with the traditional model was long-term immobilization, and there was about an 8% to 10% chance of an infection or wound healing problem,” he notes. “The benefit of doing the mini-open technique is that your incisions are much smaller, so your wound complication rate postoperatively is under 1% or 0.5%."


    This minimally invasive miniature-open technique is heavily dependent on special tools (PARS Achilles Jig System by Anthrex, Inc.: Naples, FL; Achillon Achilles Tendon Suture System by Integra LifeSciences Corp.: Plainsboro, NJ), and can add in costs up to $800 to 1,000 per use.


    Dr. Selene G. Parekh, of Duke University, has pioneered a minimally invasive mini-open technique that does not use specialized equipment, and has adapted the miniature-open technique to require only standard operating room tools, such as surgical clamps and forceps, etc. to be able to grab the Achilles tendon and pass suture.


    “You don't have to worry about a special instrument lining up properly in order to grab the tendon, so the whole procedure now takes about 20 to 30 minutes whereas traditionally it took 45 minutes to an hour,” he says.


    While mini-open repair is available at Duke (and elsewhere), only Dr. Parekh is performing Achilles repair via this new technique without the need of special instruments.  I'm interested to see what types of improved outcomes become apparent besides the time and cost savings up front.




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  15. 8 hours ago, EastStreet said:


    CBFL, question... What would you personally do if you were the GM about the LT position given all the options available right now.


    I do not know. I'm not a GM, and don't try to play one on teh interwebs. ;)


    This is what I do know-


    Chris Ballard, Frank Reich and the assistant coaches knows a lot more about the abilities and skills and their fit of players on the roster than I do. The Pro Player scouting department knows a lot more about the same information concerning Free Agents and potential cut or for trade players than I do.  The Team physician, athletic trainers and medical staff know a lot more about roster health and the health and prognosis of our draft class and potential Free Agents on the radar than I do.


    I would want to know everything that our teams Director of Player Personnel and the Director of the Pro Scouting department has on Free Agent tackles and how (much) and what areas are they better than any current player(s) on the team, and how their skill set better fits in with the team playbook that will be installed.


    For injured free agents, I'd want full medical details. I'd want my team physician to examine and evaluate the player thoroughly, and have access to discuss in detail with their doctors and view their reports on procedures,treatments, and progress notes.  And I would be in frequent conversations with the owner and head coach about their input on the data that is collected. 


    Then hopefully make the best, rational decisions (or non-decisions) possible, maybe (hopefully) even one involving the salary capologist's assistance at some point, if necessary. Like Ballard, work diligently and smart, and avoiding the “living in a desperate world” scenario. And it's not about 'who' gets it right, it's just plain about getting it right.


    What would you do?



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  16. 6 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

    It would have been appropriate to remove the outlier. Which you did make mention of.


    I'm tempted to, but only as a secondary end point ( by throwing out both the high and low, then determining the mean. ) 


    Nevertheless, even not throwing it out resulted in almost 9 months recover time.

    • Like 1
  17. 16 hours ago, PRnum1 said:

    Most likely false information spread by Fishers agent who has the most to gain by having a gullible team sign Fisher to a big contract and expecting him to come back in 7 months.


    So Fishers agent spreads the false information through his channels. Next thing you know Dan durkin tweets it as "official information".


    After a  KC GM, Brett Veach, takes it and puts it out there to the local fans consumption.



    So yes now its on the internet so it must be true.


    This type of stuff happens more than people know...




    Who knows for certain. Maybe, a few days later, the KC team physician meets with Veach, gives him the straight skinny, and then a few days after that Fisher is thanked for his services and the exit door was held open for him.  :dunno:



    • Like 2

    15 hours ago, Zoltan said:


    Interesting read, while they didn't find too much statistical significance in their experiment and some of their wording seemed weird. Here's some parts that either surprised me or thought was worth sharing



    The fact they found that players with higher BMI/unskilled positions (OL, DL) had a better chance to return to play over skilled positions, surprised me a bit because I figured it would be harder for players that are heavier to return.


    I've always heard linebackers and running backs are the lowest RTS positions, and show the lowest regained performance demonstrated for those that do return.




    This was at the end of the article and now I'll have to find this other study to see why players that underwent mini-open repairs with the senior author had such a shorter return to play time haha


    "The purpose of this study is to report on the use of PARS mini-open repair in a consecutive series of professional football athletes."  PARS (Percutaneous Achilles Repair System -  PARS, Arthrex, Naples, Florida)"


    So all data here was one surgical system performed by one physician. Good start.


    "The average age at the time of injury in this patient population was 25.6 years.
    The average return to competitive play was 273 days (8.9 months).
    Regarding NFL-specific return to play, seven of nine (78%) returned to NFL play."


    Note on the other two players, one later played in the CFL, the other an Indoor Arena league team.  Which tells me they could participate, but not at their UDFA pre-injury NFL capable level.


    My other note comes on their 8.9 average RTS. Two things I feel may affect that. First, one (just 1) player returned in only 5.4 months, thus sharply skewing the RTS mean down. Second, average age of players in this study was 25.6 years where the Parekh study averaged 29+ years of age. This difference may also contribute to a higher RTS rate as well.

    RTS = RTP

    (Table recreated here)




    I think as we move forward, the PARS, limited-open technique, and mini-open procedures may be used more and with a higher success rate and reduced RTS, but that still remains to be shown. In addition, there are still concerns such was shown in the discussion paragragh as follow-


    "However, additional studies have documented that mini-open devices, such as the Achillon device (Integra Life Sciences Corporation, Plainsboro, New Jersey), have not been without their associated risks, as sural nerve injury has been reported not too infrequently. Additionally, biomechanical concerns with these devices and their suture fixation constructs have left doubts regarding the ability to utilize an accelerated rehabilitation protocol while maintaining the integrity of the muscle-tendon unit, leaving most clinicians hesitant to use mini-open techniques in the competitive athlete patient population. To date, there is limited evidence regarding utilization of mini-open Achilles fixation in the elite athlete, and there are no known reports in the American professional football athlete."


    This PARS study seems to be a step forward addressing these concerns. Still, more work and study needs to be carried out.


    Thanks for your input as well.




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  19. 1 hour ago, Zoltan said:


    It is outside the standard deviation for the median and for their OL numbers which were 341 with +/- of 98.1 but I wish they used newer data because as I pointed out above they used surgeries from 1958-2016, so it makes the data harder to use for players today. Not saying its bad data.


    Did you compare that to this more recent study, conducted with 80 NFL players identified as having Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons?




    Interested in your thoughts there as well...


    This graph on performance pre-injury stuck out to me (Red vs. Blue) and their post surgery performance; for those the made it back.




    6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

    Instead of arguing let’s just wait and see what happens.



    No arguing here, just discussion that I'm certain the Colts medical teams/FO/Coaches are having... but they have even more information.


    6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

    There has been players injure it in jan and be back week one. None of us know how bad it was or have access to medical reports.



    Right. But we do know he had surgical repair (and that history is well known in the medical field, it's nothing new), and the Chiefs GM publicly told their fans he was on target for a mid-August return. Then, the player was outright released just 10 days later.  :thinking:


    6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

    All we know is there is optimism he could be ready by week one.



    This reminds me of all the people that predicted Luck would always beat his injury return estimates (and there were many). And time after time, I felt he would not, as they were too 'rosy'.  My problem with Luck's RTP with his injuries is he ultimately even made my predictions seem over optimistic. But it's not his fault, it was his biologic makeup.


    6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:


    Just a hunch but OCT is probably more realistic.


    That might be realistic... nobody knows right now or in the near future.


    6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

    We probably don’t sign him until it get closer to the start of the season. The big question will they go after Leno or wait on Fisher to get healthier.

    Good question.

    • Thanks 1
  20. 4 minutes ago, Superman said:


    That's not new for Polian...


    Yeah, I don't think he will ever be a candidate for a 'Mr. Congeniality' award. But he is a little better when he is guest host on the 'Late Hits' show that airs on the SiriusXM NFL radio channel.

    • Like 1
  21. 5 hours ago, Zoltan said:


    The only problem with these studies is the population they use, because of the 24 that did not return were they already on the roster bubble? were they practice squad? how many of the 95 players were NFL starters? 


    The study actually had a 'matched control' group.




    Background: Achilles tendon injuries are common in sports, including football. The purpose of this study was to determine (1) return-to-sport rate in National Football League (NFL) players following Achilles tendon repair, (2) postoperative career length and games per season, (3) pre- and postoperative performance, and (4) postoperative performance compared with control players matched by position, age, years of experience, and performance.



    Publicly available records were used to identify NFL players who underwent Achilles tendon repair and matched controls were identified. Ninety-five players (98 surgeries) were analyzed (mean age 28.2 ± 2.8 years; mean 5.5 ± 2 .8 years in NFL at time of surgery). Demographic and performance data were collected. Comparisons between case and control groups and preoperative and postoperative time points were made using paired-samples Student t tests. **


    @SteelCityColt could explain the statistical portion much better than I can.



    It also goes with did they have the same surgery and/or surgeon?


    There's really only two surgical methods used to stitch the tendon back together, I pointed them out in a previous post. Any (likely the team) orthopedic surgeon or foot/ankle specialist can do it.  Players pick special doctors, but people (everyday Joe and Jane's) can and do get non-surgical or operative Achilles repair as indicated by skilled orthopedic surgeons in their own town.



    Not trying to poke holes or say it won't take 340 days, which I tend to agree with having longer rehab times to reduce chance of re-injury. It's just hard to take these studies at face value.


    Feel free to read it, and critique the methods, data, and results if you wish.




    3 hours ago, Zoltan said:

    Yeah I get that, I was just using the 24 as an example of some of the holes in the study,


    The study is above, I think you should read it in its entirety then comment  Here's another performed from 2009-2014 that paints an even more grim picture.

                     v v v



    "80 NFL players were identified as having primary Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons. RTP (return to play) was defined as playing in a regular season or postseason game following injury. Probability of RTP was modeled as a function of time after injury in Kaplan-Meier analysis with demographic variables assessed via generalized linear models. Twelve players (15%) experienced a subsequent Achilles tendon tear during or after the study period and were included in the overall RTP rate but were excluded from performance analyses owing to the confounding effects of an ipsilateral retear or contralateral tear."


    ** Conclusion:

    Rate of RTP (return to play) following primary Achilles tendon tears may be lower than previously published. (not reflected in the above study though). However, for those able to return, performance only in the season immediately following injury appears to be affected; players return to preinjury levels if given the opportunity to play >1 season after injury. **


    The interesting takeaway from them is in bold/italics.



    there's still questions about the other 73% and the 340 days. The easy is what were the differences in injuries, what type of procedure was used?, who did the procedure? Where did they go for physical therapy? how flexible were they before the injury? Did they go to pre-hab before the surgery? How committed to doing the rehab work? Heck you can add what type of diet are they on? (because certain foods can increase inflammation) I have worked in physical therapy and in orthopedics granted I haven't worked with athletes but I have seen what it takes to get back to normal and some work harder at it than others.


    I've mentioned this before- I feel the patient/athletes biological makeup and their dedication to rehab have a much bigger influence in RTP than the typical skill of a properly executed surgical repair.



    So with this relation to the population used it is hard to get a consistent one because it's such a small group and usually they use a wide time period so they can get a large enough population to get a good p-value. Most of these studies discuss this in the discussion portion of their papers. 


    They do what they can.




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