Patagonia Chris
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Posts posted by Patagonia Chris
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The Colts will not get any supplement picks this year because you have to have lost more UFA's than you signed by a certain date and the Colts signed like 2 more than they lost. The amount of draft picks for the field is set to be 254 so supplement picks are handed out until they reach that number. It goes teams who lost more UFA's than they signed (each team gets 1 for the net amount of losses) then if there are picks left to be given out it goes to teams who had the same number of UFA's signed and lost in order of the previous seasons waiver order I think. It's kind of a complicated system, but I'm pretty sure it's one of the reasons Polian was never big on signing UFA's. He would have rather had the draft picks.
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No way the colts get Spikes and Nicks that cheap.
I was trying to predict cap number more so than total money
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Despite the fact that the Colts have made the playoffs the last two seasons, they still have major holes to fill. Being new to this forum, I'll say that the off-season is by far my favorite time of the season. In this post I'm going to make a few predictions on what I think Grigson and the front office will do this off-season.
Cap Casualties
C/ Samson Satele - cutting Satele saves 4 Mil off the cap this year. He has been ineffective thus far and often injured. Not to mention I think plenty of fans would be happy to see him go.
I don't for see them cutting anyone else at this point. They could save another $3 Mil by cutting Donald Thomas, but I doubt that Grigson gives up on him just yet. Same goes for Greg Toler.
CAP SPACE: $34 MIL
Colts Free Agents
CB/ Vontae Davis - No way they'll let Vontae Davis walk, especially since it was Grigson's first big acquisation. Contract Value = 9 Mil Per YR. That kind of contract would put his money right up there with Tramon Williams and Joe Haden, which would be about right in my eyes.
P/ Pat McAfee - The Colts will lock up McAfee whether it be long term or with the Franchise Tag. They can't really upgrade this position through the free agent market. I think his FA value is in the Morestead/Weatherford/Colquitt range. Contract Value = 3 Mil Per YR
S/ Sergio Brown - His value to the team is his Special Teams ability. I truly believe that he is one of the best ST players in the league. He will be back at the right price. I think roughly 900k- 1.2 Mil is fair value. Contract Value = 1 Mil Per YR
K/ Adam Vinatieri - He still is productive, especially for someone his age. This is a position the Colts could elect to save a few dollars on, but at this point I think they'll re-sign him. Contract Value = 2.3 Mil Per YR
OLB/ Cam Johnson - Another young player who can contribute on ST and knows the defensive system. I don't see the Colts letting him walk this off-season. Plus he can be brought back relatively cheap. Contract Value = 500K Per Year
CB/ Josh Gordy - A role player who I would be fine if they let walk. The fact that him and Cassius Vaughn are both free agents means that one will probably leave. Gordy probably comes cheaper at the same relative production level. Contract Value = 850K Per Year
CAP SPACE 17.6 MIL
UNRESTRICED FREE AGENTS
NT/ Terrence Cody - Played for Pagano in Baltimore and could be a solid rotation player at NT with Chapman. The Colts will most likely be looking for a replacement player for Abrayo Franklin and Mt. Cody could be that player. Can also be had at a decent price. Contract Value = $2.2 Mil Per Year
S/ Stevie Brown - Breakout player for the Giants a seaspn ago, tore his ACL early on this season. Could probably be had on the cheap and if he returns to form, he could be a bargain. Has played for the Colts before under the Polian regime, could be time for a 2nd stint. Contract Value = $ 1.9 Mil Per Year
MLB/ Brandon Spikes - Another player that can be had on the cheap and a low risk, high reward signing. Spikes played through all 16 games this season with a knee injury, before the Pats placed him on IR. Has questions about character but maybe a fresh start will do him good. Contract Value = $1.3 Mil Per Year
OG/ Vlad Ducasse - Was the 6th man on the Jets line this year after starting the season as a 1st teamer. Better in run situations than pass protection, probably just a guy in the NFL. Still could provide for good depth along the offensive line. Has played both G and T. Contract Value = $1 Mil Per Year
WR/ Hakeem Nicks - Some executives around the league think that he dogged it this last year which could hurt his FA value. Maybe he plays this season on a 1 year "Prove It" contract. Could be a solid outside WR and lord knows he has better hands than DHB. Grigson has signed WR's on one year deals both offseasons, so maybe Nicks is next. Contract Value = $2.5 Mil Per Year
C/ Alex Mack - The best center on the market and the Colts have the space for one marquee signing. This contract would probably lock up Mack through age 33 but Centers regress less quickly than other positions. This would be a popular signing for the fans and would help solidify the interior OL. Contract Value = $ 8 Mil Per Year
NFL DRAFT
(I used First-Pick and only made trades if they aligned with the NFL Value Chart.)
Round 2 Pick 27: Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford (B+)
Round 3 Pick 26: Dominique Easley, DE, Florida (A)
Round 5 Pick 26: Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech (A-)
Round 6 Pick 27: Vinnie Sunseri, SS, Alabama (B+)
Round 7 Pick 26 (S.F.): Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State (A)
Round 7 Pick 27 (S.F.): Devon Kennard, OLB, Southern California (A-)Thoughts or questions?
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Also, for what it's worth I did a mock draft. I only made trades if it was a realistic offer. By that I mean that the values were similiar for each side using the NFL Draft Value chart. Here's what I got....
Round 2 Pick 27: Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State (A)
Round 3 Pick 28 (CAR): Dominique Easley, DT, Florida (A)
Round 5 Pick 26: Max Bullough, ILB, Michigan State (A)
Round 6 Pick 27: Deion Belue, CB, Alabama (A)
Round 6 Pick 28 (CAR): Vinnie Sunseri, SS, Alabama (B+)
Round 7 Pick 16: James Stone, C, Tennessee (A)Easley is listed as a DT on the site but would most likely be a DE in the 3-4 defense.
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Struggling as a rookie is more common than starting...
Don't write-off Holmes just yet....
I understand that most rookies struggle in the NFL, but let's be real there is no reason why a 4th round draft pick should constantly be a healthy scratch. Especially on a team like the Colts who had a) serious interior line problems and b) health problems along the offensive line. I'm not saying that Khaled Holmes won't be a solid pro player, I just think it's cause for concern.
I do agree that the Colts will sign a veteran interior linemen, I'm just not sure it's going to be an Alex Mack or Travelle Wharton. I think that them targeting Chris Scott from Carolina or Shawn Lauvao from Cleveland is more realistic. I'm not saying that is what Grigson should do, just making an educated guess based off of the moves they've made thus far.
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Didn't Grigson say last year that he doesn't believe in paying top dollar and using high draft picks for interior linemen? I think if they do sign an interior linemen, it'll be a guy like Donald Thomas was. High upside with a relatively low cost, and I think Dietrich-Smith will command a lot of money on the free agent market. I still can't believe we wasted a pick on Khaled Holmes, who contributed nothing to the team this season.
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Here are some of the guys who will probably be UDFA's that I like at the skill positions. I know it's still a long time until the draft and things will change so I only listed players that I thought WOULD NOT get drafted at all...
QB - Garret Gilbert/ SMU
RB - AJ Blue/ North Carolina
RB - Barrington Scott/ Alabama A&M
WR - Willie Snead/ Ball State
WR - Eric Ward/ Texas Tech
WR - Duwyce Wilson/ Indiana
WR - Chris Boyd/ Vanderbilt
TE - Xavier Grimble/ USC
TE - Ted Bolser/ Indiana
LB - Unai Unga/ BYU
LB - Darrin Kitchens/ Florida
LB - Chris Wade/ Miami OH
LB - Tyler Starr/ South Dakota
CB - Dayonne Nunley/ Miami OH
CB - Johnathon Dowling/ Western Kentucky
S - Dexter Moody/ Albany State
S - Nick Williams/ North Alabama
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I know I am being greedy, but I just really want to see someone...anyone that can let these backs and running QBs know who hit them.....if we can do that cheaply I am with ya!! Welcome to the forum by the way!
Thanks, I look forward to posting regularly! I understand your pain with the ILB's though. It seems like our defense has been inconsistent for far too long now in the NFL. At one point it looked like Angerer might be that player for our defense, but injuries sure have slowed down his career. I was hoping in 2012 that we would have picked Burfict with the Mr. Irrelevant pick. Instead, we landed Harnish. Oh well hopefully the front office solves the problem this year.
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I really want to go FA with a name backer...the one big contract this off season.
Personally, I think that it would be foolish to throw tons of cash at a free agent ILB this off-season. Quality inside linebackers can usually be had for a reasonable price in the draft or UDFA. (Burfict, Freeman, Nick Roach, Kiko Alonso, Stephen Tulloch) as well as finding gems for a reasonable price in trades (Beason, Vilma) though I'm sure Grigson would find a way to overpay in a trade. With that said, if the Colts do go the free agent route I would like to see them take a chance on a guy like Brandon Spikes. I think he could flourish in the right situation and he could be had a reasonable price on a "prove it" deal.
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If the Colts draft Matthews (or any other WR for that matter) that means that they would have to A) carry 6 WR's for the season or B) cut either Whalen or Rogers. I think at this point that carrying 6 WR's is the better option of the two, but with that said I think it would be better to have a full off season with the guys they have now, and add WR's who are UDFA's. Maybe pick up a kid like Ball State's Willie Snead, Vanderbilt's Chris Boyd or Texas Tech's Eric Ward. I think all three of those guys have NFL potential and could be kept on the practice squad throughout the season.
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It's unfortuante that the Colts don't have the luxury of compensatory picks in this years draft to take a flier on a kid like Colvin. With only 5 picks in this years draft you'd have to think that Grigson will try to make them all count. Let's just hope that whoever he picks this year makes more of an impact than last years class. With all that said, I'd be ok with the Colts using a 7th round pick on Colvin but anything more than that is probably overpaying.
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No way I would want Johnathon Martin on this team. Dude is a head case! He has underperformed thus far in his career and been a distraction.
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Humm.. dunno ask RODGERS! And they claim it was just luck he developed into the QB he is now.. ya, luck.
The packers drafted Rodgers in the FIRST round to be the QB of the Future because they knew Favre's time was almost done, hopefully like what we can do with Manning/ Luck...You really wanna say we should have picked a QB in the FIRST round prior to this season????
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Its simple I think, people here in Indy have gotten spoiled over the past decade, we are not use to losing and well they sure are not going to blame the players (has there been even 1 thread calling out the players?) so then it falls on the GM and Coach. Add to that the issue that Bill isn't Mr. Socialable and Coach Caldwell isn't a screamer yeller and well fans have to be upset at someone...when in fact there is really no one to be upset with, we are just having a bad season.
That's a very good point, with the exception of McAfee, Brown and Garcon not a lot of players have really stepped their game up this season
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MAC is by far the most intelligent Colts fan I have ever came across in my 10+ years as a season ticket holder. On any forum, this or ESPN, I have been constantly frustrated with the lack of intelligence amongst most fans about football. Let's face it most of you became fans when the Pacers were in decline and the Colts were on the rise in the early 2000's. Most of you weren't on the bandwagon yet when the team went 1-15 in 97 to get Manning. What I don't understand is that how you throw stones at Bill Polian!?!? This is a man who has built 6 teams that have played in SB's. I'm willing to bet that Polian is a lot better at his job than you people are at yours. Building a team through overpriced free agents isn't how you win and if you think it is compare the win totals of the Raiders and Redskins to that of the Colts and Patriots over the last decade. Look at some of the players the Colts have let walk..Edgerrin James, Mike Peterson, Cato June, Mike Vanderjagt, Marlin Jackson, Marcus Washington, Dominic Rhodes, Brandon Stokely and Ben Utecht and look at their careers after they left Colts..Now look at the players who have been big FA signings over the past few years, Haynesworth (Skins), DeAngelo Hall (Raiders), Adalus Thomas (Patriots), Ahman Green (Texans), Jevon Kearse (Eagles), TJ Houshmanzaeh (Seahawks) compare their numbers with previous teams to the numbers after their contracts and see if the production matches the pay day. Signing free agents to high priced contracts isn't how you win in the NFL, you find players who can compete in your scheme and you sign them for a reasonable price and you hope they stay healthy!
COLTS SIGN T-JACK BRECKNER
in Colts Football
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TBH I kind of like the project players that Grigson brings in every year. It keeps things interesting in a rather boring time of the season. So far Grigson has done ok signing players like this, Jerrel Freeman was a hit and I liked what I saw from Cesaur Rayford before they traded him. I still don't understand that move. I think Adongo has the potential to be a quality NFL player, he certainly has the athleticsm. If anything this move increases depth along the O-line, which I'm all for.