[Why Are Fans Scared Of The Idea Of The Colts Drafting Luck?]

I think whats causing the concern is, do we really want to fortify the next few years at the expense of the next 15 years? Personally, I don't think either side is wrong.

I believe we could form a good defense without trading away a freak of a franchise QB pick. So far, everyone is arguing that it is an 'either/or' decision. I believe we could do both, that is, build a defense and acquire the future QB for our franchise.

This, definitely.

It's sad to think about, but they're likely to draft higher than we're accustomed to in at least a couple of upcoming years. We'll either suffer the last years of a potentially gimpy, aging Manning, or it'll be Luck's growing pains, or what have you. I don't believe, though, that they will be likely to be in a top overall pick sort of position with even a twilight Manning or a young Luck.

The fact is, QB is the most important position on the field and the position for which truly elite talent is at the greatest premium. I don't see how you can pass on filling that need for the future in exchange for a bit better draft than they'll probably have in the coming years. And it's not as though the top pick would be the only one this year. Our second rounder will be close in position to where we usually draft in the first round. We're almost certain to have a better draft than usual whether we take Luck or not.

[Why Are Fans Scared Of The Idea Of The Colts Drafting Luck?]

But I think that what those of us not in the Luck camp take issue with is the ASSUMPTION that we can "seamlessly transition from Manning to the best QB prospect since Manning." That is not a given Plus, having a GOAT qb does us NO GOOD if the rest of the team sucks. We gotta address those issues - esp defense to be a decent team. Then when Manning retires we take our lumps like the best of them til we get another good qb. Very few teams transition from great qb to great qb successfully. The Farve/Rodgers is the exception. Plus he wasn't a first round pick.

Yeah, being able to make a Farve/Rogers transition is rare. And yeah, they needed a lot of luck (ugh, seriously didn't mean that as a pun) to hit big with a later pick. But the Colts are in a rare position. I don't think there's any doubt that this is a rare position. This is a rare position because teams with future hall of fame QBs don't often have the number 1 pick. And not every year has such a strong consensus top pick. Certainly not every draft contains the most exciting QB prospect in a decade. So yeah, the position the Colts are in may be entirely unprecedented. A strange sequence of events has given them in a true once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

I guess I just don't see how the rarity of this opportunity is a particularly compelling reason to pass on it.

[Why Are Fans Scared Of The Idea Of The Colts Drafting Luck?]

I don't think anyone is scared of drafting him. Some people just believe his value is high enough that the team could upgrade across the board with what they could get for the top pick, so that opportunity can't be overlooked.

I'm personally on the Luck side of the argument. I just don't see a few extra draft picks being anywhere near enough to transform this team into one that can win without transcendent QB play. This team NEEDS a generational type talent at QB to win, that's the way it has been built for the past decade, and I can't imagine that changing so easily. With Polian's recent first round history, I dunno...I just can't get too excited about the prospect of stockpiling 2011's versions of Gonzalez, Brown, and Hughes all at once rather than spreading them over 3 years. I CAN get excited about the feeling that we may have miraculously stumbled onto a once-in-a-lifetime chance to seamlessly transition from Manning to the best QB prospect SINCE Manning.

Put it this way: I think the case to trade down would be more compelling if I could name any 3 first round picks from the past 8 years I would trade Manning for.