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^^^^^^, man, you should be sharing whatever you're smoking. right now this Ol is about as good as the bears line. castonzo if healthy is the only decent guy we have, all other positions will be filled by throwing darts while blindfolded. luck will be lucky to survive past 8 games, running, or running for his life.....

our line will not be as bad as last year. last year was a mess not because of lack of talent but because our line was so hurt we were playing musical chairs with our line. some guys we just signed off the street on monday and they were playing on sunday thats how messed up our line was. this year not only do we have talent, but depth. luck will have a much better line then people think.

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You earn Respect by Creating a Colts.com Account when you're a Texans Fan? Thanks for showing us REAL Colts Fan that we have Support from other Fans too. Now that your Job is done.... you can take a Seat ------> _/

Welcome to the Colts forums, but let's remember to treat other members with respect. Here's a great link on how to handle interaction on the forum. http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/6709-mod-note-choices-trolling-and-the-golden-rules/ Thank you, I'm looking forward from more from you in the future! :)

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and whats reggie chop liver? the guy was 30 yards shy of 1000 with three garbage qbs

Reggie's good but he's no Steve Smith. Smiths been in 22 less games with 30 less starts and is only 163rec 1430yds, 14tds shy of Reggie, in nearly 2 full seasons less played. And that's without taking into account his 8 rushing and return TDs or yards.

Reggie's good. Smith is dynamic.

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With all due respect, one could also point out that Cam was working with a VERY slimmed down (or vanilla) playbook and throwing to receivers with whom he had little to no time to develop real chemistry with, which is very important in the NFL passing game. Also, defensive systems that has been in place for a while (like the Saints and Falcons, for example) are very unlike to play a cover two shell the entire season (only our Colts do that). Circumstances tend to go both ways...

But I can also see what you say as possibly true, as that would also explain the record number of 4,000 yard passers (including three 5,000 yards passers) in 2011.

No disrespect taken..... Hey, I can't explain why Cam Newton had the year he did. I'm not aware of anyone who predicted this. Certainly no one who seriously knows football did. Carolina was surprised, if not shocked at the season he had. There was nothing in his background at Auburn that forecast he'd have this kind of season -- nothing. But when I watch the talking heads at ESPN (I'm talking football people) and read things on-line, they come back to what Newton had to work with, and what Cam faced. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But something has to explain it.

Here's something pretty shocking.... Before the 2011 draft, Ron Jaworski went back and watched every one of Newton's 288 passes at Auburn. He said roughly 35 of them were NFL level, or quality pass plays. He's talking about the level of sophistication, not the quality of the throw. About 35, that's it. Remember, before his one year at Auburn, he had a great year at a Junior College, and he was a back-up at Florida where he barely played.

So, when I say there was nothing that predicted his incredible rookie year, I'm serious. So then, how do you explain it? Whatever the reason, I think it's premature to say Luck will have that kind of year. Same for RG3. They **might** have as good a year. I just wouldn't predict it. If it happens -- great. But don't be surprised if it doesn't. Too many things out of Luck's control.

NewColtsFan

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Cam is very agile and elusive, whereas Luck is more of the Tebow type, preferring to use his size to bully the opposition. And with the defenses that you guys are facing, let's hope that Luck decides to stay in that pocket. Cam Newton's record is similar to Dan Marino's passing record. It probably won't be broken for a very long time.

cam newton it it up last year, but his passing records have more to do with the new rules that favor passing than anything else

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No disrespect taken..... Hey, I can't explain why Cam Newton had the year he did. I'm not aware of anyone who predicted this. Certainly no one who seriously knows football did. Carolina was surprised, if not shocked at the season he had. There was nothing in his background at Auburn that forecast he'd have this kind of season -- nothing. But when I watch the talking heads at ESPN (I'm talking football people) and read things on-line, they come back to what Newton had to work with, and what Cam faced. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But something has to explain it.

Here's something pretty shocking.... Before the 2011 draft, Ron Jaworski went back and watched every one of Newton's 288 passes at Auburn. He said roughly 35 of them were NFL level, or quality pass plays. He's talking about the level of sophistication, not the quality of the throw. About 35, that's it. Remember, before his one year at Auburn, he had a great year at a Junior College, and he was a back-up at Florida where he barely played.

So, when I say there was nothing that predicted his incredible rookie year, I'm serious. So then, how do you explain it? Whatever the reason, I think it's premature to say Luck will have that kind of year. Same for RG3. They **might** have as good a year. I just wouldn't predict it. If it happens -- great. But don't be surprised if it doesn't. Too many things out of Luck's control.

NewColtsFan

Good points. Cam had a record-setting year (statistically superior to Manning, and other top notch rookie quarterbacks), and it's unrealistic to expect anyone to play that well as a rookie, ever.

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cam newton it it up last year, but his passing records have more to do with the new rules that favor passing than anything else

True...But I wouldn't expect Griffin down in Washington or Weeden in Cleveland to light it up this year. Yes, passing is favored now, but safeties and defensive lineman are also getting bigger and faster, harder to handle for O-lines. I also think that the short offseason and "dumbed down" playbooks also helped the rookie quarterbacks this past year. Defenses had no time to prepare themselves.

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Thanks for the seat, your kindness is noted. While you're up, I'll take a rum and coke, very little ice...chop chop now! :)

The test is a good coke n rum tastes just like vanilla coke. Put in a scotch glass with 3 cubes. Too delicious haha.

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Good points. Cam had a record-setting year (statistically superior to Manning, and other top notch rookie quarterbacks), and it's unrealistic to expect anyone to play that well as a rookie, ever.

exactly. the only problem is that everyone is. Because of the recent crop of rookie success stories, everyone seems to think anyone drafted in teh top 20 spots is going to be amazing.

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exactly. the only problem is that everyone is. Because of the recent crop of rookie success stories, everyone seems to think anyone drafted in teh top 20 spots is going to be amazing.

Yup. On one hand, if anyone can come into the league ready to perform, it's Andrew Luck. On the other hand, he's playing the most complicated position in the game (maybe in sports, period), he's a rookie, and our team has a new coaching staff that many of the veteran players aren't familiar with. He's got a lot working against him, despite his talent and maturity level.

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Are there high expectations? Yes

Are they fair? Yes

It's up to him to meet and exceed them.

I disagree. We've done this already. I don't think it's fair to place unrealistic expectations on Andrew Luck because of where he was drafted or because of who we got rid of. And I think expecting him to come in and play like a seasoned vet in his rookie season is unrealistic.

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I disagree. We've done this already. I don't think it's fair to place unrealistic expectations on Andrew Luck because of where he was drafted or because of who we got rid of. And I think expecting him to come in and play like a seasoned vet in his rookie season is unrealistic.

I guess it depends on how one defines unrealistic and how one sets their standards and what they do or don't consider in doing so.

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I guess it depends on how one defines unrealistic and how one sets their standards and what they do or don't consider in doing so.

All of that is true. But you and I have traded off on this before, so I think we understand each other. I think you're standard for what Luck's rookie season should look like is a little heavy-handed, and I think a big part of it has nothing to do with Luck and his performance. Neither of us considers this in a vacuum; we're both thinking about more than the raw numbers. I just don't expect Luck to break the trends of what rookie quarterbacks historically do in the NFL. I'll be thrilled if he does, but I think that's a pretty tough standard to hold him to.

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All of that is true. But you and I have traded off on this before, so I think we understand each other. I think you're standard for what Luck's rookie season should look like is a little heavy-handed, and I think a big part of it has nothing to do with Luck and his performance. Neither of us considers this in a vacuum; we're both thinking about more than the raw numbers. I just don't expect Luck to break the trends of what rookie quarterbacks historically do in the NFL. I'll be thrilled if he does, but I think that's a pretty tough standard to hold him to.

Yes we have, and I'm guessing the actual result will fall in the gray area in between our views.

I'll try to dig something up from one of the previous threads on the topic, and try to add more context to it later.... Dinner time.

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Andrew can run if he has to but prefers to throw the ball if possible. The OL has been gelling without Ijalana and Costonzo so I believe we are in for a surprise with that group.

Newton prefers to throw too. His numbers were among the best in the league, after all, not just rookies. It's just that his ability to run is a PROMINENT threat, whereas defenses will concede a scramble to Luck occasionally if it means containing his passing game.

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You earn Respect by Creating a Colts.com Account when you're a Texans Fan? Thanks for showing us REAL Colts Fan that we have Support from other Fans too. Now that your Job is done.... you can take a Seat ------> _/

:facepalm: You will be very disappointed this season with those ridiculous expectations. You need to realize you have to earn respect here (regardless of where your loyalties lie). I don't agree with Vance very often, but he has much more of my respect than you. I'd suggest you take a seat and shut up, you're making Colts fans look bad. ------> _/

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Most Colts fans have low expectations for Andrew during his rookie year, however at NFL.com Jason Smith has ranked Andrew as the 16th best QB in the NFL for the 2012 season. We want Luck to excell but have low expectations so we wont be disappointed. I see Luck as a person who will overachieve. He is smart and will work hard. He will study film and learn faster than the average QB. I expect a Cam Newton kind of year.

Well if he has a Cam Newton kind of year he'll have the best rookie season any QB has ever had because that's what Newton had. That's not low expectations that is extremely high expectations.

I think we need to define what low expectations means. To some that means Curtis Painter. To others that just means Luck wont be as good as Peyton Manning was during his prime right off the bat. We've all been spoiled and lucky to see one of the greats play for a long time and after a while you get used to that and just come to expect that and I am sure there are going to be some that say just because Luck wasn't as good as Peyton Manning right away he's no good. I think when most people talk about low expectations that's all they are trying to avoid. I wouldn't call that low expectations personally, I'd just say that is being realistic which is where I think most people are. With that said I fully expect Luck to be much better than Painter. If he's not we should be very disappointed as fans.

With that said if Luck doesn't have as good of as season as Newton did it doesn't mean Luck didn't have a good season though. Heck even Peyton Manning didn't have as good of a rookie season as Newton did. Personally I just want to see growth and improvement like we saw from Peyton his rookie season. I just want to be feeling good about the QB poistion going forward and feel like things are headed in the right direction. If that happens then I think we can say Luck had a good rookie season regardless or record or stats.

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Newton prefers to throw too. His numbers were among the best in the league, after all, not just rookies. It's just that his ability to run is a PROMINENT threat, whereas defenses will concede a scramble to Luck occasionally if it means containing his passing game.

Why do you think that? Luck is faster than Newton, so why would defenses be less concerned with him running than they were with Newton?

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The Panthers had a new coaching staff last year so Newton's situation was similar to what Luck will face this year. Newton had Steve Smith, a good OL, and two good RBs. Grigson has brought in some veteran OL so our OL should be better than it was last year. Will our OL be as good as the Panthers remains to be seen but the potential is there. Brown, Carter, and Ballard have enough athletic ability to give us a good running game. Last year Carolina's OC put in a lot of Auburn's playbook so Newton could grasp the offense faster. We do not know if the Colts OC will do this or how fast Luck will grasp the offense but we do know Luck is highly intelligent and learns fast. Also last year the Panther defense was not good. I believe the Colts defense will be better than what the Panthers had last year giving the offense more opportunities to score.

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Why do you think that? Luck is faster than Newton, so why would defenses be less concerned with him running than they were with Newton?

I don't think Luck is faster than Cam Newton. I don't know their respective 40 times off the top of my head, but I think most NFL types would say Newton is faster than Luck. Also, I think Cam is more willing to run than Andrew is. Cam is 2 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. He's more willing to take on tacklers. Andrew ran a lot in his 2nd year as a starting QB. Had 3 runs of 50+ yards. But he ran much, much less last year. Trying to make sure he's doesn't get hurt on a meaningless run. I suspect Indy will do the same. Advise Andrew to run only when he has to. As I'm sure you know, the NFL is much bigger, and much, much faster. No need to risk the franchise. Too much down side, not enough up side.

NewColtsFan

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I posted this link before, but it's still very relevant to this conversation:

http://pfref.com/tiny/mkWbY

I also believe that people here are setting the benchmark for Luck way too high. I have no doubt he'll be great a few years down the line, but this is his rookie season and our team is still very bad. Those that are expecting 250 yards a game have their expectations set way too high. I think the benchmark should be Sam Bradford's rookie year numbers (3512 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs). However 4000 is unrealistic considering it's only ever been done once in history.

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I don't think Luck is faster than Cam Newton. I don't know their respective 40 times off the top of my head, but I think most NFL types would say Newton is faster than Luck. Also, I think Cam is more willing to run than Andrew is. Cam is 2 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. He's more willing to take on tacklers. Andrew ran a lot in his 2nd year as a starting QB. Had 3 runs of 50+ yards. But he ran much, much less last year. Trying to make sure he's doesn't get hurt on a meaningless run. I suspect Indy will do the same. Advise Andrew to run only when he has to. As I'm sure you know, the NFL is much bigger, and much, much faster. No need to risk the franchise. Too much down side, not enough up side.

NewColtsFan

He's not faster than Newton. At the combine, they both ran a 4.59. Unless Newton or Luck get Faster, they are the same Speed as eachother right now

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I posted this link before, but it's still very relevant to this conversation:

http://pfref.com/tiny/mkWbY

I also believe that people here are setting the benchmark for Luck way too high. I have no doubt he'll be great a few years down the line, but this is his rookie season and our team is still very bad. Those that are expecting 250 yards a game have their expectations set way too high. I think the benchmark should be Sam Bradford's rookie year numbers (3512 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs). However 4000 is unrealistic considering it's only ever been done once in history.

In response to your List, Luck makes the top 10. If Bradford made the Top 10 w/o any REAL Weapons... There's no Question that Luck can't do it with Wayne, Collie, Fleener, Allen, Etc.

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Cam didn't throw to Steve Smith very much. He is not the player he use to be anyway. Cam legitimately earned every yard he got. The Panthers were not very good at all. They were weak in all aspects of thier game execpt QB. Trust me, In this area that is about all I get to watch without Sunday ticket.

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He could very well have a similar year but I doubt as good because Newton has a proven offensive line around him and Steve Smith, if Steve isnt their then sure Cam can still run like crazy but the throwing numbers he put up dont happen

Cam didn't throw to Steve Smith very much. He is not the player he use to be anyway. Cam legitimately earned every yard he got. The Panthers were not very good at all. They were weak in all aspects of thier game execpt QB. Trust me, In this area that is about all I get to watch without Sunday ticket.

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Cam didn't throw to Steve Smith very much. He is not the player he use to be anyway. Cam legitimately earned every yard he got. The Panthers were not very good at all. They were weak in all aspects of thier game execpt QB. Trust me, In this area that is about all I get to watch without Sunday ticket.

I don't see the reasoning that Newton didn't throw to Smith very often. That combo wasn't very far off of the league leaders when it comes QB/WR targets and % of targets.

Newton targeted Smith 25% of the time. 129/517 attempts(24.95%), with Greg Olsen being the next most targeted player 90/517(17.4%) and Nannee coming in @ #3 with 76/517 (14.7%).

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingTargets/league/nfc

To put that in perspective.

The Colts in 2010:

Manning targeted Wayne 173/679 25.48%

Manning targeted Garcon 119/

Tammee targeted Tammee 93/679/

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingTargets/year/2010/league/afc

Roddy White was the most targeted player in the league 181/Ryan's 566 attempts or 31.98%

Welker 172 out of Brady's 611 attempts or 28.1%

C.Johnson 158 out of Stafford's 663 attempts or 23.83%.

Fitzgerald 153 out of Arizona's 528 targets from top 2 QB's or 28.9%

I just found it to be an odd comment that didn't make a lot of sense in my mind, so I took the time to crunch some #'s to clarify the comment.

Steve Smith might not be in his prime, but he would walk into Indy as WR1 tomorrow.

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Reggie's good but he's no Steve Smith. Smiths been in 22 less games with 30 less starts and is only 163rec 1430yds, 14tds shy of Reggie, in nearly 2 full seasons less played. And that's without taking into account his 8 rushing and return TDs or yards.

Reggie's good. Smith is dynamic.

Steve Smith also never had to share the ball with a HoFer on the other side for a number of years! He is a different style of WR than Reggie.......I wouldn't say that is more dynamic, just different!

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Steve Smith also never had to share the ball with a HoFer on the other side for a number of years! He is a different style of WR than Reggie.......I wouldn't say that is more dynamic, just different!

He also never had an offense that put up the #s like ours did. And if anything that Marvin point actually detracts from Reggie because he was on the #2 CB while Smith was always against the 1. And he's never even come close to having the caliber of QB play Reggie was blessed with.....And Wayne's career YAC avg is 3.9, Smiths is 6.1 a very significant diff. Indicating Smith is much more dangerous with the ball in his hands.

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our line will not be as bad as last year. last year was a mess not because of lack of talent but because our line was so hurt we were playing musical chairs with our line. some guys we just signed off the street on monday and they were playing on sunday thats how messed up our line was. this year not only do we have talent, but depth. luck will have a much better line then people think.

in terms of penalties, our line WILL be a mess.

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I think one thing that will help us is that Luck has some legs to run. Not that he needs to run a ton, I think this might buy him some time to maybe get outside the pocket and hit our WR's. That is something we really never had w/ Peyton. Peyton runs like a drunken down syndrome kid. At least if Luck gets outside the pocket and runs maybe once or twice a game it should at least keep the opponents D honest. I don't care what Andrew's stats are as long as we are winning games or he's not the cause of a bunch of turnovers that take us out of games.

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He also never had an offense that put up the #s like ours did. And if anything that Marvin point actually detracts from Reggie because he was on the #2 CB while Smith was always against the 1. And he's never even come close to having the caliber of QB play Reggie was blessed with.....And Wayne's career YAC avg is 3.9, Smiths is 6.1 a very significant diff. Indicating Smith is much more dangerous with the ball in his hands.

to add to this prehaps the most important part Steve Smith had never played a QB as good as Cam Newton to that point in his career other than maybe for a year or two with Delhomme and even then I say that was more like playing with Harbaugh in 1995 when he had a magic season. Reggie Wayne has been playing with maybe the best QB to ever play the game to this point in his career. You can make a strong case the QB Wayne will be playing with got worse. With that said Reggie isn't just a waste of space either. He's still a good WR who is on his last legs and I wouldn't expect Luck to bring him back to the prime of his career. I think you'll see his numbers jump from what they were last year because there is no Garcon and he should have better QB play but I don't think they will jump back to where they were during the prime of his career.
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He also never had an offense that put up the #s like ours did. And if anything that Marvin point actually detracts from Reggie because he was on the #2 CB while Smith was always against the 1. And he's never even come close to having the caliber of QB play Reggie was blessed with.....And Wayne's career YAC avg is 3.9, Smiths is 6.1 a very significant diff. Indicating Smith is much more dangerous with the ball in his hands.

There is no doubt that Steve Smith is a talented player, but its even funnier that statistics can be used to help any argument if you use them to your advantage.

Having said that, now that Reggie is on the downside of his career, its easy to say look at this guy or that guy and say they would have been better on our team...............2, 3 or 4 years ago I am not sure you would have made that argument!

Yes, we had a dynamic offense and a HoFer as the number 1 across from Reggie does not do anything but hurt his stats, heck, even after Marvin retired reggie did just fine as the number 1, which dispells your theory on him not being a number 1.

Would Steve Smith have done well in the Colts offense, probably, but we will never know! What we do know is Reggie has put up borderline HoF numbers and has succeeded in the Colts offense. Please don't diminish the fact that he has been succesful at his craft!

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