The Burning question of Luck vs RGIII supporting cast

[HtownColt]

Who will have the better rookie season, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III? This has been an ongoing debate since we knew the Colts and Redskins would draft Luck and RGIII respectively. Most analysts that I see on ESPN and NFL Network make the argument that RGIII will have the better rookie season, citing his much better supporting cast in Washington. Let's take a look at the offensive supporting cast for each, and see if that is, in fact, the case.

OFFENSIVE LINE

According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Redskins ranked 10th in run blocking and 15th in pass protection. The Colts were 25th in run blocking and 18th in pass protection. The Redskins added some depth to the line in the draft and free agency and didn't lose any of their starters from last year. Barring injuries, I wouldn't expect a drop off in production, but I wouldn't expect a big improvement either.

The Colts on the other hand, are in the process of revamping their offensive line, as they change the entire philosophy of their offense. They've said goodbye to line fixtures Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem. They've brought in guys like Winston Justice, Samson Satele and Mike McGlynn. They will join relatively unproven 2nd year players, Anthony Costanzo and Ben Ijalana.

Advantage: REDSKINS - Slight edge to the Redskins mainly because the Colts line is such an unknown. On paper it looks better than the 2011 line, but for now, the slight edge has to go to the proven mediocrity of the Redskins line.

RUNNING BACKS

The Redskins running game is more about the zone blocking system Mike Shanahan runs than it is about the running back. That being said, Roy Helu is the projected starter and is expected to split time with Evan Royster. While both showed promise last year, it wouldn't come as a surprise if Shanahan switches it up and give the majority of the carries to another "unknown" running back. The Redskins' rushing offense ranked 25th in the league last year at 100.9 yards per game.

The Colts' rushing offense averaged 99.6 yards per game last year ranked just below the Redskins at 26th in the league. Donald Brown is back as the starter. He has shown flashes of living up to his first round draft status, but he's also shown why some people label him a bust. Second year man Delone Carter should be his primary back up. New Colts head coach Chuck Pagano has expressed desire to run the ball more than the Colts have in recent years. Does that mean they'll be more effective? Will this new offensive line provide better run blocking? Those questions will remain unanswered until the start of the season.

Advantage: PUSH - The running games of the Colts and Redskins were pretty much identical last season. The Redskins averaged just a yard more per game. The running backs on each team will come in to the season having to prove themselves. I don't see either team having an advantage here.

TIGHT ENDS

Chris Cooley, who played in only five games last year due to a knee injury, should be healthy and ready to go at the start of camp. Cooley, when healthy, is a reliable blocker and very good pass catcher. The Redskins other tight end, Fred Davis, is coming off another very good season. FootballOutsiders.com had him ranked 8th among all tight ends last year in overall value. Keep in mind, he missed the final four games of the season due to suspension. If Cooley and Davis can stay healthy, they should combine for one of the better tight end combos in the league.

The Colts cut Dallas Clark and lost Jacob Tamme to free agency. In their place, the Colts drafted Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Fleener and Allen were considered by most to be the top two tight ends in the draft. Fleener, with his familiarity with Luck, should be able to put up good receiving numbers early and often in 2012. Both tight ends, for that matter, have a ton of potential.

Advantage: REDSKINS - I have no doubt that Fleener and Allen will be good players for the Colts. They could be very good. But they're not there yet, and until we actually see them perform, they can't be put on the same level as Cooley and Davis.

WIDE RECEIVERS

The Redskins cut Jabar Gaffney earlier this week, but still have a good group of receivers. The picked up former Colts receiver Pierre Garcon and also added former 49er Josh Morgan in free agency. Santana Moss, who had a down year last year, and second year vet, Leonard Hankerson, are back to join them. Garcon and Morgan are two young receivers who have quite a bit of talent, but have been inconsistent so far in their careers. FootballOutsiders.com had Moss and Garcon ranked 80 and 81 in the league in total value for wide receivers last year. Morgan was not ranked due to missing much of last season with a broken leg. Hankerson only played in four games, but has the talent to be a good receiver in this league.

Reggie Wayne surprised many people by re-signing with the Colts. Wayne is on the downside of his career, but he still provides leadership and sure hands. Austin Collie is back as well after a tough 2011 season. FootballOutsiders.com had Wayne and Collie ranked 36 and 71 in the league in total value for wide receivers last year. Joining them will be free agent addition Donnie Avery and rookies T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill. It's uncertain whether Avery can return to the promise he showed coming up in St. Louis. Hilton and Brazill are also unknowns at this point, although Hilton provides magnificent speed and game-breaking ability.

Advantage: REDSKINS - Very slight edge to the Redskins largely for the experience their receiving corps has over the Colts. Wayne and Collie ranked higher than the Redskins receivers, but after that the Colts have unproven talent.

OVERALL

RGIII does seem to have the better supporting cast in Washington than Andrew Luck has in Indianapolis, but it's not as wide a margin as you would think. In fact, with the talent the Colts have on offense, that margin could disappear all together during the season. Right now, the Redskins just have more proven, experienced players. The Colts just have too many unknowns.

credit Brian Goldsmith

[Playoffs2013]

Really wayne, and collie are worse than moss andPG

[ruksak]

[FireJimCaldwell]

This one might be better suited for the life-support award. Not sure if it is quite dead since the draft is still fresh and teams could still add players up until week 1.

[Nobody]

Aren't they cutting Cooley? I would say tie in TEs and WRs until they're proven, but we could really be better by years end.

[NWGirl227]

a lot of people are saying Griffin will have a better rookie season, but i wouldn't count out Andrew at all. it wouldn't surprise me at all if by the end of the year, his numbers -- and record -- are superior to Griffin's.

[pacolts56]

I'd rather be in Luck's shoes any day......

- If RGIII's supporting cast was THAT great they wouldn't have been in position to trade up and draft him in the first place.

- IMO, Shanahan is still living off his Denver SB's.... courtesy of Elway and Terrell Davis.

- Add Dan Snyder to the mix and there is already a gasoline spill waiting for someone to light a match. A couple more last place finishes in the tough NFC East oughta do it..... and anything close to the usual volatility of the Redskins coaching staff under Snyder is probably the worst thing that could happen to Griffin.

[oldunclemark]

a lot of people are saying Griffin will have a better rookie season, but i wouldn't count out Andrew at all. it wouldn't surprise me at all if by the end of the year, his numbers -- and record -- are superior to Griffin's.

I think most were saying that BEFORE the draft

..and before Luck got some speedy new pals to throw to...

By the way.....Nice look..NW girl....very avant garde!

[oldunclemark]

true ruk..

I no longer care about RG3 and how he does more than one week a year if that...

he isnt even in the AFC....

Good luck with Shanahan, son..

[Flash7]

If we were just looking at their supporting casts as a measure to predict either Luck or RGIII's first year, I would agree with what's written. However, I think that there's a lot more to it. I would start with their respective devisions. RGIII is in a division that is considered year in and year out to be one of the tougher divisions in the league, with the Cowboys, Eagles, and the super bowl champion Giants. He will face tougher defensive fronts from the Cowboys and Giants.

In addition, you have to consider that the Redskins have given up quite a bit to obtain RGIII, which will translate to less talent in other areas due to lack of draft picks. On the other hand, the Colts have done very well with this year's draft, and will have much cap space next year to improve the team. I see Luck having a better rookie year going against the Jaguars and Gabbert, the Titans and Locker/Hassleback and the Texans who unless they prove otherwise, have not been able to win in Indy.

[king general 317]

It all depends on how you view success and the players development over the year.

To me I believe that stat wise he luck can actually have a better year depending on how the chips fall. But the important part will be who develops chemistry with their team and who starts to learn the game at the next level over the year thatll really be the determining factor in my book.

Plus rg3 is not coming into a system more tailored to his needs as much as luck is basically being soon fed success. And also I think that fleener will also be a big factor as well.

[NWGirl227]

I think most were saying that BEFORE the draft

..and before Luck got some speedy new pals to throw to...

By the way.....Nice look..NW girl....very avant garde!

that's so true new pals (and old pals too!). i really am impressed with what the Colts did on draft day, and that's not even including what may come in free agency. make no mistake, Luck is the real deal. he's an incredible and durable athlete but what's more impressive is how intelligent he is.

also: Superman wears "Andrew Luck" socks!

thanks regarding the avatar; it's a computer-generated drawing of me done by a friend of a friend.

[stpetejohnny]

I will continue to say this....Luck is light years ahead of the injury waiting to happen little blown up guy.

Red Zone is where Luck is lights out compared to the other guy.

avant garde, oldunclemark....don't see that on a football forum too often!

[GrizzColt]

I think the comparisons should be within conferences. Newton and Griffin should meet in the playoffs every year and the same for Dalton/Luck. That's where rivalries come from. People say this could be a Bird/Magic kind of thing and that's fine except Bird and Magic made it to the championship series almost every year of their careers....I don't see the Colts and Redskins making it to the Super Bowl every year.....just the Colts

[Vance]

This is like asking which 2 year old is stronger. Can we just wait a couple until they're old enough to put on gloves and go in the backyard?

[chad72]

Over time, the weaker AFC South and AFC will give Luck more advantages than the NFC provides for RGIII, at least the next 5 years, IMO. The advantages will start favoring Luck at least as early as year 2, IMO.

[HtownColt]

I think the comparisons should be within conferences. Newton and Griffin should meet in the playoffs every year and the same for Dalton/Luck. That's where rivalries come from. People say this could be a Bird/Magic kind of thing and that's fine except Bird and Magic made it to the championship series almost every year of their careers....I don't see the Colts and Redskins making it to the Super Bowl every year.....just the Colts

ryan mallet will be starting for some team also when he leaves the patriots. he's going to be a rivalry as well

[Blackhawk4]

[betheafan41]

hate to say it but RG3 will have a better rookie year. they added depth to their line, they have WR's who can catch the ball and make big plays especially their young kids Hankerson and Austin. their run game picked up last year. they were really only a QB away from winning that division....they beat the giants both games, they lost to the cowboys by 3 in both games due to poor QB play and kicking. they beat the eagles once. and they lost games they shouldnt have lost but since they kept juggling QB's around they got beat. Not saying luck isnt going to have a good year, but the skins are in better shape then the colts right now.

[colts1993]

ryan mallet will be starting for some team also when he leaves the patriots. he's going to be a rivalry as well

ryan mallet is done. hes going to be riding the bench for a while

[Jay305]

WE HAVE THE BETTER TEAM! Garcons a bum he wont be able to handle those rifle shots coming out of RG3s arm. He could barely catch Peytons touch passes.

[Jay305]

hate to say it but RG3 will have a better rookie year. they added depth to their line, they have WR's who can catch the ball and make big plays especially their young kids Hankerson and Austin. their run game picked up last year. they were really only a QB away from winning that division....they beat the giants both games, they lost to the cowboys by 3 in both games due to poor QB play and kicking. they beat the eagles once. and they lost games they shouldnt have lost but since they kept juggling QB's around they got beat. Not saying luck isnt going to have a good year, but the skins are in better shape then the colts right now.

It seems that way but with Lucks deadly accuracy and the simplicity of our new offense. Luck will have the better year, RG3 will only have more rushing yards but whocares.

[HtownColt]

ryan mallet is done. hes going to be riding the bench for a while

no he's not only 3 more years then he's free from the patriots in free agency

[John Dee]

Really wayne, and collie are worse than moss andPG

When one adds the speed of a Fleener, who is a WR, and Hilton... Wayne and Collie become instantly "very dangerous"

Who do you double? Oh,and then there is Allen....... Luck will be set up to Rock and Roll this year from the get go....

I like this team...

[coltsfanatic24]

the colts have better offensive playmakers then the redskins.

[colts1993]

no he's not only 3 more years then he's free from the patriots in free agency

do you see him starting?

[HtownColt]

do you see him starting?

from what he showed last preseason yes i can see him starting in this league given the oppurtunity