Ballard clock ticking: Opportunity or Failure

[GoColts8818]

You generally don’t call a guy a blue chip if you have doubts about him and are thinking you may need to fire him soon.  I’ll say again the only way Ballard loses his job this year is if the wheels come off and it’s another year like 2022 WITH a healthy Richardson and it’s clear he’s not the answer.  I don’t think that’s going to happen.

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2024/08/17/colts-owner-jim-irsay-praises-gm-chris-ballard-coach-shane-steichen/74846598007/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2viOH2Pf92PT5QL3PRXHLwjIVV8lqk52y1eYIRgDNJR1Z7exi1WNSyekY_aem_U9LSFTkPcQkdrEivf71DWA

[DavePSL]

Irsay praises everyone right up til he fires them.....Blue chip means nothing!

If the Titans and Texans blow by the Colts in their respective building processes , Ballard is gone. The Colts had a chance to do exactly what the Texans and Titrans did but chose not to. We shall see.

As far as how to build a team. Teams that win in todays NFl draft well and understand how to fill holes with free agency and trades. Successful teams do NOT rely on the draft alone. The Texans drafted a probowl QB,DE and WR last year and then went and signed in FA a probowl DE,DT,RB and Wr. Will see this year what works and what doesn't. BTW, It's Ballard's decisions in free agency that hurt us not the fact that he doesn't use free agency. Look at Gay and Davis right now. What  production are we  getting from our last 2 years in free agency from those to decisions by Ballard? Both strategies work if the GM MAKES THE RIGHT DECISIONS!

 

In saying that, if the Colts come out this year and win the division and make the playoffs, Ballard was right and so was Irsay and a lot of us were wrong and I think most of us want Ballard to be right but it's been 8 years and it's time to quit making excuses. He has his QB, coach and players he brought in and signed. It's time to produce as Z said.

 

IMO, until we have a legit TE on this roster, our offense will NOT be consistent and a top offense. Show me one team that gets deep in the playoffs without a highly productive TE. Doesn't happen and the whole "Deep TE Room" needs to stop because it's flawed and homer crap. We need a real TE and Ballard cant seem to draft one so go trade or sign one.

[4daUColts]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:03 AM, AustexColt said:

After the losing Carson Wentz season, Ballard admitted he failed. He was not held accountable like coaches and players. He was given a second chance. This season there are a number of decisions which will be either success opportunities or failures. The one most coveted by fans/sportscasters is his roster creation. Over paying Matt Gay, Lack of Secondary support and talent, no go-to TE (ala Dallas Clark,Jack Doyle), RB depth. Maybe after cut down date he plans to supplement his roster to address these needs, then again maybe not.

We still got ss as coach now. Let it play out.

[Defjamz26]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:03 AM, AustexColt said:

After the losing Carson Wentz season, Ballard admitted he failed. He was not held accountable like coaches and players. He was given a second chance. This season there are a number of decisions which will be either success opportunities or failures. The one most coveted by fans/sportscasters is his roster creation. Over paying Matt Gay, Lack of Secondary support and talent, no go-to TE (ala Dallas Clark,Jack Doyle), RB depth. Maybe after cut down date he plans to supplement his roster to address these needs, then again maybe not.

It’s too early to be out on Matt Gay IMO. Remember that he’s the reason we beat the Ravens. Let’s see how he looks in the regular season.

 

With TEs, I’ll say this. I think fans and draft analysts are higher on TE’s than the league is. I don’t believe in the idea that every team has to have a high level TE to compete. There are way more elite WRs than elite TE’s in the NFL. I also don’t know If Steichen’s offense needs a dynamic TE to be successful.

 

RB depth is fine. We have Hull and Sermon. Plus Goodson might make the 53.

 

The secondary I will agree with you on. IMO this has been the area where Ballard has missed the most with. He’s brought in veteran FA corners like Pierre Desir, Xavier Rhodes, and Stephon Gilmore, but he’s never found a long term starter there. At safety he’s relied on mainly young players who never really become the savvy veterans. In his tenure we’ve had guys like Malik Hooker, Khari Willis, Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Clayton Geathers, and Rodney McCloud.

 

I think the biggest gripe here is the consistent strategy of “let the young guys play” that he’s never really changed, but then the biggest issues in the secondary are always communication and experience, which is typical when you play young players. The other issue I have is that when he brings in FAs at those positions they seem to almost always perform. Even today, Rhodes and Gilmore have been the best OUTSIDE corners in the Ballard era. Moore is a superstar nickel so he hit there. But safety? Lot of guys who flashed or have been solid but much like corner, he has no guy he’s drafted or signed as a UDFA who has gotten a second contract. Blackmon had his best season since the first couple of games of his rookie year before injury, but he’s only back on a 1 year deal. 

[ADnum1]

Ballard will only be fired if and only if it's determined that AR is a bust.

 

The Colts need this season to evaluate what AR is.

 

This is a mulligan season for Ballard. He wants to evaluate AR and the secondary. That's why he didn't sign a FS and will not this season.

 

Even if Colts miss playoffs this season, Ballard will stay but his seat will get hot.

 

Nothing will happen with Ballard until end of 2025.

 

But that is still plenty of time for AR to show progress.

 

If playoffs are missed again in 2025 I think then he'll be let go.

 

So Ballard has 2 more years at least.

 

Not saying I agree with it but this how I am reading the situation 

[DavePSL]

Go look at the final 4 teams last years TE's and really every year how important they were to their teams success....It's has nothing to do with what offense you run or SS, it has to do with what a productive TE does to a defense and that's what we're missing. It's also HUGE for a QB to have a productive TE and it will hurt AR until we get one.

 

I'll say this about Ballard. If Levis and the Titans finish better than we do, Ballard will be, and should be,  in big trouble. BTW, I love AR over Levis, but if the Titans rebuild in two offseasons while  Ballards on his 8th, pateince should be over.

 

Remember all offseason  talking about all the potential  free agents Ballard could bring in because AR's has a rook contract? Didn't happen because we signed our own...That's 100% on Ballard and his strategy..................Now it has to pay off or else.....

[richard pallo]

3 minutes ago, DavePSL said:

Go look at the final 4 teams last years TE's and really every year how important they were to their teams success....It's has nothing to do with what offense you run or SS, it has to do with what a productive TE does to a defense and that's what we're missing. It's also HUGE for a QB to have a productive TE and it will hurt AR until we get one.

 

I'll say this about Ballard. If Levis and the Titans finish better than we do, Ballard will be, and should be,  in big trouble. BTW, I love AR over Levis, but if the Titans rebuild in two offseasons while  Ballards on his 8th, pateince should be over.

 

Remember all offseason  talking about all the potential  free agents Ballard could bring in because AR's has a rook contract? Didn't happen because we signed our own...That's 100% on Ballard and his strategy..................Now it has to pay off or else.....

He could still trade for a player with a hefty contract or one that could be extended.  Not that it’s going to happen but it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility.  

[NewColtsFan]

11 hours ago, AKB said:

 people telling me i was wrong in this thread didn't age well, did it?

Look at your post about not aging well.   Now scroll up ONE post by GC8818.   It’s got 2 Tweets from Mike Chappell about Matt Gay.   
 

There’s the counter argument.  I think you jumped the gun on posts not aging well.   You’ll no doubt disagree.  

[throwing BBZ]

28 minutes ago, DavePSL said:

Go look at the final 4 teams last years TE's and really every year how important they were to their teams success....It's has nothing to do with what offense you run or SS, it has to do with what a productive TE does to a defense and that's what we're missing. It's also HUGE for a QB to have a productive TE and it will hurt AR until we get one.

 

I'll say this about Ballard. If Levis and the Titans finish better than we do, Ballard will be, and should be,  in big trouble. BTW, I love AR over Levis, but if the Titans rebuild in two offseasons while  Ballards on his 8th, pateince should be over.

 

Remember all offseason  talking about all the potential  free agents Ballard could bring in because AR's has a rook contract? Didn't happen because we signed our own...That's 100% on Ballard and his strategy..................Now it has to pay off or else.....

 

 We have 5 TE's that can be productive.

At least 4 WR's

And 3 RB's

 We are overwhelmed with talent to attack with the passing game.

 And we have the top level coaching to use it.

  Some just lack the vision to see it though it's smack dab in front of them.

 

[DavePSL]

We have 4 QB's who can be productive but we dont get where we need to go without Richardson and we all know it. Until people realize that our TE's are average at best , they wont understand how much of a problem it is for our offense. Once we get a REAL TE , we will all see what we were missing....FTR, I think Mallory gives us the best chance at a starting TE that threatens defenses.

 

I get it , we are fans and homers but none of the talent you have put out there has proven anything other than Pittman and JT. I do agree with you that there is great potential at every area you mentioned, EXCEPT TE and that's a critical one to miss in todays NFL.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:43 AM, Dark Superman said:

* He signed Matt Ryan after Carson Wentz left.

 

*He had to fire Frank Reich and his coaching staff who he hired when he became the Colts GM in 2017.

 

* Decided to not address certain and very obvious needs that you mentioned in the original post.

 

Chris Ballard has neglected an obvious position of need not because of not having enough cap space or the ability to fill a need by signing a player but due to him being prudent and unnecessarily stubborn in his way of thinking when it comes to roster decisions. He'll admit he's wrong and tell you to blame no one but him when things go south but he's been doing the same song and dance for nearly 8 years now. He's never going to change the way he acts in terms of building a complete roster no matter what the circumstances are at the time. He rather watch a guy he invested in be a liability on the field for three years before pulling the plug and addressing the issue by bringing in a more suitable player.

 

I have no idea what the heck kind of dirt or secrets he has on Jim Irsay but for some odd reason he never seems to be on the hot seat which is a bad thing for Colts fans.

 

 

 

Winning/building up a strong roster hasn't been a high priority with this team which explains why Ballard is never on the Hot Seat.

[jvan1973]

26 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Winning/building up a strong roster hasn't been a high priority with this team which explains why Ballard is never on the Hot Seat.

That's obviously nonsense.    It may not be the way you would want it done,   but suggesting winning isn't a priority to Irsay is nonsense.       Plus you think the league is rigged.  In your world how could Ballard do anything,  the league determines the outcome 

[jvan1973]

7 hours ago, DavePSL said:

We have 4 QB's who can be productive but we dont get where we need to go without Richardson and we all know it. Until people realize that our TE's are average at best , they wont understand how much of a problem it is for our offense. Once we get a REAL TE , we will all see what we were missing....FTR, I think Mallory gives us the best chance at a starting TE that threatens defenses.

 

I get it , we are fans and homers but none of the talent you have put out there has proven anything other than Pittman and JT. I do agree with you that there is great potential at every area you mentioned, EXCEPT TE and that's a critical one to miss in todays NFL.

So you consider Tyler Higbee as a difference maker at TE?

[DavePSL]

I consider him wayyyyy better than anything we have. He has averaged 59 catches the last 5 years......We haven't had a TE go over 31 catches in the last 5 years. BTW, the last time we won a playoff game, our TE caught 66 balls (Ebron) that year.

 

Doesn't anybody remember what Dallas Clark did for our offense or even Ebron for  1 season?

[4daUColts]

No way ballard is in the hot seat, he picks good talent. Rome wasnt built in a day. We gotta good coach. Ballard is a great gm in my book.

[Yoshinator]

On 8/18/2024 at 4:49 PM, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Winning/building up a strong roster hasn't been a high priority with this team which explains why Ballard is never on the Hot Seat.

Ballard thinks it's Madden where if he starts day 2 and 3 picks they'll automatically develop through playing time and as long as you're patient, they become better in a couple years and won't bust. In real life, below average players don't automatically develop into average and above-average players through development. A lot of them bust. You can't just build through the draft like Madden. He's facing 31 other GMs that are using the Draft, FA, and trades to build the best teams possible. He needs to join the party.

 

Also, welcome to the forum @DavePSL. You are spitting straight facts your first few posts. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

22 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

Ballard thinks it's Madden where if he starts day 2 and 3 picks they'll automatically develop through playing time and as long as you're patient, they become better in a couple years and won't bust. In real life, below average players don't automatically develop into average and above-average players through development. A lot of them bust. You can't just build through the draft like Madden. He's facing 31 other GMs that are using the Draft, FA, and trades to build the best teams possible. He needs to join the party.

 

Also, welcome to the forum @DavePSL. You are spitting straight facts your first few posts. 

So, according to your brilliant logic, a lot of the current drafted  Colts that are starters are busts. Name them.

[jvan1973]

35 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

Ballard thinks it's Madden where if he starts day 2 and 3 picks they'll automatically develop through playing time and as long as you're patient, they become better in a couple years and won't bust. In real life, below average players don't automatically develop into average and above-average players through development. A lot of them bust. You can't just build through the draft like Madden. He's facing 31 other GMs that are using the Draft, FA, and trades to build the best teams possible. He needs to join the party.

 

Also, welcome to the forum @DavePSL. You are spitting straight facts your first few posts. 

Good lord

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, 4daUColts said:

No way ballard is in the hot seat, he picks good talent. Rome wasnt built in a day. We gotta good coach. Ballard is a great gm in my book.

Ballard will be the GM here for a long time. This offseason is a testament to the work he’s done.

 

Re-signed:

-Grover Stewart

-Deforest Buckner

-Zaire Franklin

-Michael Pittman

-Jonathan Taylor

-Kenny Moore

 

All those players have been productive and are some of the best at their respective positions. It doesn’t even factor in guys like Downs, Raiman, and Fries who have been good early on. He has drafted/traded for a core group of players that helps keep the team competitive. He’s hit on a lot of players. 2017 and 2019 draft classes were a wash, but that’s standard. No GM knocks every single draft class out the park.

 

Hes definitely a top 10 GM in the league.

 

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Defjamz26 said:

Ballard will be the GM here for a long time. This offseason is a testament to the work he’s done.

 

Re-signed:

-Grover Stewart

-Deforest Buckner

-Zaire Franklin

-Michael Pittman

-Jonathan Taylor

-Kenny Moore

 

All those players have been productive and are some of the best at their respective positions. It doesn’t even factor in guys like Downs, Raiman, and Fries who have been good early on. He has drafted/traded for a core group of players that helps keep the team competitive. He’s hit on a lot of players. 2017 and 2019 draft classes were a wash, but that’s standard. No GM knocks every single draft class out the park.

 

Hes definitely a top 10 GM in the league.

 

He's a top 10 drafting GM in the league. He's bottom 5 at FA and trades. He's also arguably the most conservative GM in the league as well. 

 

It's true that no GM knocks every single draft class out of the park, which is why Ballard has to be more aggressive in FA. You can't build an NFL team solely through the draft. That's a Madden dream that I do for fun on Franchise mode. As long as Ballard is conservative and doesn't sign players the way he does, we won't be contending for a SB anytime soon.

[Defjamz26]

2 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

He's a top 10 drafting GM in the league. He's bottom 5 at FA and trades. He's also arguably the most conservative GM in the league as well. 

 

It's true that no GM knocks every single draft class out of the park, which is why Ballard has to be more aggressive in FA. You can't build an NFL team solely through the draft. That's a Madden dream that I do for fun on Franchise mode. As long as Ballard is conservative and doesn't sign players the way he does, we won't be contending for a SB anytime soon.

Thats a fair point. I’d argue by saying that his re-signed draft picks are his FAs. But I’d agree that he could be better at adding FAs for the holes that weren’t fixed in the draft. And they don’t need to be players that break the bank either. I don’t see why he wouldn’t sign Simmons for $8 million for a year when they have $20 million in cap space. Even if you like your young safeties, you can’t like them more than a guy who was voted the 59th best player in the league by his peers. Even if he came in and didn’t play good, it’s $8 million.

 

But even with the issues in FA, I still think he will stick around. Even if the Colts end up being a team like the Steelers who aren’t serious contenders but are constantly in the race. 

[ColtStrong2013]

27 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

He's a top 10 drafting GM in the league. He's bottom 5 at FA and trades. He's also arguably the most conservative GM in the league as well. 

 

It's true that no GM knocks every single draft class out of the park, which is why Ballard has to be more aggressive in FA. You can't build an NFL team solely through the draft. That's a Madden dream that I do for fun on Franchise mode. As long as Ballard is conservative and doesn't sign players the way he does, we won't be contending for a SB anytime soon.

 

if he is top 10 in drafting, then he could be the worst in free agency (he is not) and still be considered a very good GM. Your bias is showing. 
 

We don’t know if we will be contending in the foreseeable future so don’t even pretend you know for sure… This core looks very good on paper. We’ll have a better practical idea by Thanksgiving of where this team is trending… 

 

also regarding Madden- a lot of people (and GM’s for that matter) go hog wild in free agency like it works in reality. It’s rare, and it’s costly. Which is why Chris Ballard isn’t being let go by Jim Irsay anytime soon. One thing I am confident in is that Chris Ballard will be one of the top executives in nearly every franchise so long as he wants to remain in the nfl, long after his career in Indy is done. His door will be beaten down… yours and mine? Not even a knock. I can confidently say that about Chris, not about all GM’s. Grigson is proof of that. It took Grigson 6 years of starting over and working his way up to being a top executive again. And that might not last very long...

[richard pallo]

31 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

He's a top 10 drafting GM in the league. He's bottom 5 at FA and trades. He's also arguably the most conservative GM in the league as well. 

 

It's true that no GM knocks every single draft class out of the park, which is why Ballard has to be more aggressive in FA. You can't build an NFL team solely through the draft. That's a Madden dream that I do for fun on Franchise mode. As long as Ballard is conservative and doesn't sign players the way he does, we won't be contending for a SB anytime soon.

He actually is rated number one in trades.

[Yoshinator]

10 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

if he is top 10 in drafting, then he could be the worst in free agency (he is not) and still be considered a very good GM. Your bias is showing. 
 

We don’t know if we will be contending in the foreseeable future so don’t even pretend you know for sure… This core looks very good on paper. We’ll have a better practical idea by Thanksgiving of where this team is trending… 

 

also regarding Madden- a lot of people (and GM’s for that matter) go hog wild in free agency like it works in reality. It’s rare, and it’s costly. Which is why Chris Ballard isn’t being let go by Jim Irsay anytime soon. One thing I am confident in is that Chris Ballard will be one of the top executives in nearly every franchise so long as he wants to remain in the nfl, long after his career in Indy is done. His door will be beaten down… yours and mine? Not even a knock. I can confidently say that about Chris, not about all GM’s. Grigson is proof of that. 

How many trades does Ballard do on average per year though? It's not like he's wheeling and dealing like Howie Roseman. I do have a bias yes. I'm tired of doing little to nothing in FA every year. It allows little to no room for error in the draft, and it's unenjoyable as a fan to never get any big name FAs. Even Buckner cost a 1st when we did get a big name guy. 

 

I may not know if we will be contending 100% in the future, but I can come up with a fair idea of it, and decide whether my time is worth it to invest into the team. I don't believe we are contenders at this point, so I declined to order Youtube NFL Sunday  Ticket and I'm not buying any Colts merchandise until Ballard is gone or we make the playoffs.  

 

On Madden Franchise Mode in drafts, you can get hidden development players in the draft that will gain experience at a much higher level than normal players. That allows you to build primarily through the draft instead of overspending in FA. You can literally sign depth pieces in FA behind them. The Ballard strategy in real life, except it works in Madden. 

 

Ballard can't hit on enough players in the draft over the long term to make up for the lack of FA signings. The only way it would work is if he hit on 2-4 elite players every draft that were all pro quality. That is not sustainable in a real-life setting with 31 other GMs and FOs at his level.

[ColtStrong2013]

3 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

How many trades does Ballard do on average per year though? It's not like he's wheeling and dealing like Howie Roseman. I do have a bias yes. I'm tired of doing little to nothing in FA every year. It allows little to no room for error in the draft, and it's unenjoyable as a fan to never get any big name FAs. Even Buckner cost a 1st when we did get a big name guy. 

 

I may not know if we will be contending 100% in the future, but I can come up with a fair idea of it, and decide whether my time is worth it to invest into the team. I don't believe we are contenders at this point, so I declined to order Youtube NFL Sunday  Ticket and I'm not buying any Colts merchandise until Ballard is gone or we make the playoffs.  

 

On Madden Franchise Mode in drafts, you can get hidden development players in the draft that will gain experience at a much higher level than normal players. That allows you to build primarily through the draft instead of overspending in FA. You can literally sign depth pieces in FA behind them. The Ballard strategy in real life, except it works in Madden. 

 

Ballard can't hit on enough players in the draft over the long term to make up for the lack of FA signings. The only way it would work is if he hit on 2-4 elite players every draft that were all pro quality. That is not sustainable in a real-life setting with 31 other GMs and FOs at his level.

 

I don't know why the amount is paramount to your argument. I posted an analytical study that shows the net value in trades since 2020, and Ballard is in his own league. That's like saying "well I traded 10,000 stocks last month and made $3,000" where the next guy traded 100 and netted a million. What's the value per trade? What's the value per free agent acquired? He made an effort to get a premier free agent this year, and the guy chose his hometown with the ROY qb. Ballard hasn't had qb stability which has undoubtedly hampered his free agent signings. That fact just ignored on a daily basis on this forum. We really don't know what he's capable of doing in free agency until he has qb stability with a franchise qb. That could come as soon as next offseason. 

I know Madden features are. It's fantasy land. I played Madden when I was child and thought I knew how the NFL worked. I now know that I didn't have a clue then, and that I know nothing of how it works in reality. 

 

He can hit on enough players in the draft. It depends on qb play. I think the key is to hit on premium position players and round the lesser positions out in free agency. That CAN make his strategy work. And we've seen a shift in priority in the draft from him the last several years. It's looking good on hits at QB, WR, LT, and Edge, which are undoubtedly the highest premium positions in the league. I want to see it play out, and clearly Irsay does too... 

I think you are clearly at crossroads with whether you are an actual fan of this franchise or not. Out of curiosity, since we know when you approximately fell out of favor with them, when did you become a Colts fan?

[Yoshinator]

16 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

I don't know why the amount is paramount to your argument. I posted an analytical study that shows the net value in trades since 2020, and Ballard is in his own league. That's like saying "well I traded 10,000 stocks last month and made $3,000" where the next guy traded 100 and netted a million. What's the value per trade? What's the value per free agent acquired? He made an effort to get a premier free agent this year, and the guy chose his hometown with the ROY qb. Ballard hasn't had qb stability which has undoubtedly hampered his free agent signings. That fact just ignored on a daily basis on this forum. We really don't know what he's capable of doing in free agency until he has qb stability with a franchise qb. That could come as soon as next offseason. 

I know Madden features are. It's fantasy land. I played Madden when I was child and thought I knew how the NFL worked. I now know that I didn't have a clue then, and that I know nothing of how it works in reality. 

 

He can hit on enough players in the draft. It depends on qb play. I think the key is to hit on premium position players and round the lesser positions out in free agency. That CAN make his strategy work. And we've seen a shift in priority in the draft from him the last several years. It's looking good on hits at QB, WR, LT, and Edge, which are undoubtedly the highest premium positions in the league. I want to see it play out, and clearly Irsay does too... 

I think you are clearly at crossroads with whether you are an actual fan of this franchise or not. Out of curiosity, since we know when you approximately fell out of favor with them, when did you become a Colts fan?

I became a fan of the Colts in 1998 when I was 10 years old. It was either the Colts or Chargers, depending on who drafted Peyton Manning. Once the Colts drafted him, I switched from a Bronco fan to a Colts fan and it was very enjoyable. Grigson was bad, but it was tolerable because we had Luck at that time and he was carrying the team making the playoffs and winning. I didn't start getting frustrated with the team until 2021. That's when I started to get frustrated with the QB carousel. I hated Reich at that point and was sour on Ballard. Once Ballard never did much in FA and we were underperforming, I lost interest last year completely when Richardson went down and only watched 2-3 games. The only thing keeping me going at this point is Richardson. I just can't get behind this team when there's no aggression to win and teams all around the league are trying hard. There's always an excuse why we aren't winning.

 

I won't switch teams most likely, but I either want to make the playoffs minimum this year, or I want Ballard gone. If we miss the playoffs this year and Ballard doesn't get fired, then I'll probably check out at that point. The only faith I have left is AR. I don't believe the team can contend the way it is unless he is top 5.

 

 

[shasta519]

10 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Ballard will be the GM here for a long time. This offseason is a testament to the work he’s done.

 

Re-signed:

-Grover Stewart

-Deforest Buckner

-Zaire Franklin

-Michael Pittman

-Jonathan Taylor

-Kenny Moore

 

All those players have been productive and are some of the best at their respective positions. It doesn’t even factor in guys like Downs, Raiman, and Fries who have been good early on. He has drafted/traded for a core group of players that helps keep the team competitive. He’s hit on a lot of players. 2017 and 2019 draft classes were a wash, but that’s standard. No GM knocks every single draft class out the park.

 

Hes definitely a top 10 GM in the league.

 

 

Respectfully, I have to disagree. I do think they were "competitive" from 2018-2020, but not since then.

 

From 2021-2023, they haven't really been that competitive relative to most teams. Or if this is considered competitive, then the bar is too low:

• Won 22 games, which ranks #21 among NFL teams during that time
• 13/16 AFC teams have made the playoffs
• Colts are one of only 3 AFC teams who haven't made the playoffs 

The core of this team (minus maybe Shaq) has remained in place during this time too. Many were in their primes and now several are nearing or past age 30, where we typically see injuries happen and individual play regress. It tends to happens for nearly all NFL players. 

 

If this offseason is a testament to the work he's done as a top 10 GM, then it should be playoffs or he's gone. How many GMs get to go 4 years without a playoff appearance, let alone when that 4-year period begins 4 years into their tenure.

[ColtStrong2013]

1 minute ago, shasta519 said:

 

Respectfully, I have to disagree. I do think they were "competitive" from 2018-2020, but not since then.

 

From 2021-2023, they haven't really been that competitive relative to most teams. Or if this is considered competitive, then the bar is too low:

• Won 22 games, which ranks #21 among NFL teams during that time
• 13/16 AFC teams have made the playoffs
• Colts are one of only 3 AFC teams who haven't made the playoffs 

The core of this team (minus maybe Shaq) has remained in place during this time too. Many were in their primes and now several are nearing or past age 30, where we typically see injuries happen and individual play regress. It tends to happens for nearly all NFL players. 

 

If this offseason is a testament to the work he's done as a top 10 GM, then it should be playoffs or he's gone. How many GMs get to go 4 years without a playoff appearance, let alone when that 4-year period begins 4 years into their tenure.

they were absolutely competitive in 2021 until the choke job at the end, which was the downfall of Frank Reich. Had Wentz/frank not lost the locker room, they would have been a dangerous playoff team with the leading rusher and a defense that took the ball away as well as this franchise will ever see. We blew it that year, but to start there as the uncompetitive year is laughable. We took Tom Brady to the wire, and should have won that game. They were solid even with inconsistent and even erratic qb play. We were a play away from a division title last season… so essentially we’re going to point to wins and losses and 2022 instead of using what actually happened to make a point? Game of inches, and we lost most of the crucial inches. If that’s uncompetitive and setting the bar too low, then you should find a new hobby, because it’s reality in football. 

[ColtStrong2013]

@shasta519 

 

Let’s be honest about “being competitive”… there is only a handful of teams that have actually competed with the Chiefs to rep the AFC in the Super Bowl. And one in the Bills has taken a major tumble. To say we haven’t been competitive compared with “most” is wild. How many games have we lost within a score? Even in 2022, we beat the chiefs and took the eagles to the wire. It’s the difference between consistent qb leadership and not. Andrew Luck would have loved this roster makeup in 2014-2016. 

[stitches]

I think a lot of the data we have suggests exactly what we know even without it - Ballard is in general very good with draft trades and he gets a lot of value there, he is also relatively good drafter. But there are certainly things I have serious issues with him about. And the choices he makes that might elevate the floor of his team, ultimately lower the ceiling of his teams. In a league where every year you have at least a few teams who go all-in on a window of contention, you will have very hard time competing at the highest level when maximizing steady performance over peak performance. 

 

I've said if before and I will say it again - with Ballard my worries are never that we will be consistently terrible team. My worries are never that he will get us in salary cap hell... My worries are never that he will mortgage our future. My worries are that we will be perpetually mediocre to good. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

if he is top 10 in drafting, then he could be the worst in free agency (he is not) and still be considered a very good GM. Your bias is showing. 
 

We don’t know if we will be contending in the foreseeable future so don’t even pretend you know for sure… This core looks very good on paper. We’ll have a better practical idea by Thanksgiving of where this team is trending… 

 

also regarding Madden- a lot of people (and GM’s for that matter) go hog wild in free agency like it works in reality. It’s rare, and it’s costly. Which is why Chris Ballard isn’t being let go by Jim Irsay anytime soon. One thing I am confident in is that Chris Ballard will be one of the top executives in nearly every franchise so long as he wants to remain in the nfl, long after his career in Indy is done. His door will be beaten down… yours and mine? Not even a knock. I can confidently say that about Chris, not about all GM’s. Grigson is proof of that. It took Grigson 6 years of starting over and working his way up to being a top executive again. And that might not last very long...

 

I am always interested in analytics, so I appreciate you posting it. Have not seen this before. 

 

I know this graph is more about Ballard not being a bad trader (which I don't think he is)...but the fact that Les Snead, Howie Roseman and John Lynch are in the lower left quartile of this graph makes it seem like a questionable way to measure a GM. Those 3 GMs have 6 SB appearances during Ballard's tenure.

 

It also seems as though Ballard, with all of this supposed net value gained in trades, hasn't been able to take advantage OR that he's lacking in other areas.

 

I wish I could see a breakdown of every team's trades and how they arrived at the net value. If the draft only provided $5M in surplus over expected, then this is basically the result of player trades from 2020-23. But $100M net value from a handful of trades, including Wentz and Ryan, seems questionable. I am guessing Patton has a different take on the Wentz trade than most.

 

[Defjamz26]

57 minutes ago, stitches said:

My worries are that we will be perpetually mediocre to good. 

That much I agree with. The issue is that’s hard to upgrade from at GM. Because what would be the qualifications for the next GM? To constantly trade up in draft, spend big in FA, and trade for proven players? Idk if that guarantees you’ll get better results though.

 

Thats why I think it’s so important to get the QB and HC right. To me that’s what separates the mediocre-good teams from the yearly contenders. On paper we have a better roster than the Ravens, but they have Harbaugh and Jackson. The GM can only do so much. And it’s tough to ask the GM to have 22 starters who are all above average, and have backups that can step up in their absence too.

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

That much I agree with. The issue is that’s hard to upgrade from at GM. Because what would be the qualifications for the next GM? To constantly trade up in draft, spend big in FA, and trade for proven players? Idk if that guarantees you’ll get better results though.

 

Thats why I think it’s so important to get the QB and HC right. To me that’s what separates the mediocre-good teams from the yearly contenders. On paper we have a better roster than the Ravens, but they have Harbaugh and Jackson. The GM can only do so much. And it’s tough to ask the GM to have 22 starters who are all above average, and have backups that can step up in their absence too.

Ballard could literally get better results by signing a top tier FA every year. Just one. That could fix a position of weakness and give us an extra player that is ready now that would probably be just as good as a day 2 player in the draft. Plenty of guys in their mid 20s to go after.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Respectfully, I have to disagree. I do think they were "competitive" from 2018-2020, but not since then.

 

From 2021-2023, they haven't really been that competitive relative to most teams. Or if this is considered competitive, then the bar is too low:

• Won 22 games, which ranks #21 among NFL teams during that time
• 13/16 AFC teams have made the playoffs
• Colts are one of only 3 AFC teams who haven't made the playoffs 

The core of this team (minus maybe Shaq) has remained in place during this time too. Many were in their primes and now several are nearing or past age 30, where we typically see injuries happen and individual play regress. It tends to happens for nearly all NFL players. 

 

If this offseason is a testament to the work he's done as a top 10 GM, then it should be playoffs or he's gone. How many GMs get to go 4 years without a playoff appearance, let alone when that 4-year period begins 4 years into their tenure.

The 2021 season was a winning season. 2022 a disaster and 2023 was a winning season. No playoff appearances in that span, but we were certainly competitive. 
 

Even if you go be for that, it’s pretty favorable

 

2017 (his 1st season as GM): disaster

2018: 10-6 Playoffs and a win

2019: 7-9, below average

2020: 10-6 and playoff appearances

 

The Colts have always been competitive more often than not under Ballard. Even with sketchy QB play and sub par coaching.

[shasta519]

59 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

they were absolutely competitive in 2021 until the choke job at the end, which was the downfall of Frank Reich. Had Wentz/frank not lost the locker room, they would have been a dangerous playoff team with the leading rusher and a defense that took the ball away as well as this franchise will ever see. We blew it that year, but to start there as the uncompetitive year is laughable. We took Tom Brady to the wire, and should have won that game. They were solid even with inconsistent and even erratic qb play. We were a play away from a division title last season… so essentially we’re going to point to wins and losses and 2022 instead of using what actually happened to make a point? Game of inches, and we lost most of the crucial inches. If that’s uncompetitive and setting the bar too low, then you should find a new hobby, because it’s reality in football. 

 

The choke job was a collective effort, including Ballard's roster. And that collapse continued well after Reich left. He gets the blame because the expectations were set way too high for that team (was a common thing during those years).

 

But not getting it done when it counts has been a theme of the post-Luck Ballard era, regardless of the coaching staff. I don't put that all on Ballard because he's not on the field, but it is his team, so he takes responsibility too, which he has done in public.

 

And if only ever being a play away, or whatever preferred maxim, is considered competitive and successful, then yes, I think that bar has been set too low. Especially too low for someone who's been called a top 10 GM, like was stated in the post I responded to. I see "competitive" is subjective, so to each their own, but if the past 3 years are considered competitive, then the 20 teams that have averaged more wins were also competitive, which waters it down as any type of achievement.

 

Sure, it's annoying that the Colts have an overrated GM who hasn't won anything, but it's not so bad for the Colts that I would want to find a new hobby. I just don't have confidence in Ballard, in year 8.

[stitches]

30 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

That much I agree with. The issue is that’s hard to upgrade from at GM. Because what would be the qualifications for the next GM? To constantly trade up in draft, spend big in FA, and trade for proven players? Idk if that guarantees you’ll get better results though.

 

Thats why I think it’s so important to get the QB and HC right. To me that’s what separates the mediocre-good teams from the yearly contenders. On paper we have a better roster than the Ravens, but they have Harbaugh and Jackson. The GM can only do so much. And it’s tough to ask the GM to have 22 starters who are all above average, and have backups that can step up in their absence too.

The QB by himself can elevate the ceiling of a team tremendously. 

 

About the GM - for now I am content to let Ballard see his project around AR through.

 

But if he's let go at some point - the goal should not be to swing in the complete opposite direction of Ballard. I like a LOT of what Ballard does as a GM. In general I agree with his draft day trade strategy. In general, I think he handles the board really well. In general I think he's a very good evluator of talent. But I do think he has some ideas that are stuck firmly in the past and need updating. I think he needs serious change in his positional value strategy and in what he considers valuable in 2024-2025 NFL. I think if you want to be competitive at the highest level of the league, you need to use all avenues to make your team better, because other teams use all avenues(draft, FA, trades), while you are self-sabotaging yourself by tying one hand behind your back. I also think Ballard's obsession with rewarding your own players and trying to bring back every player from a mediocre team, does not pass the sniff test. You cannot preach that free agency is overrated and teams overpay for players non-stop in FA and then turn back and give contracts to pretty much every single player on your own team. So you didn't have a problem to give competitive offers and outbid other teams for players in FA? You just decided to limit yourself to extremely small pool that consists almost exclusively of your own players? Just... go and get the best players you can get for the money you can afford... no matter if they are on your own team or on another team. So ... I don't necessarily want him to go out and spend all the draft picks and go on some unheard of shopping spree in FA. But I do want him to be strategically aggressive with some high value positions. 

 

And if he thinks the team is close... IMO there is a good case for "going all in" for short period of time, because again - if you don't, you are fighting against teams that do and invest a lot more resources in their contention windows. You are just climbing uphill if you don't. 

[richard pallo]

8 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

The choke job was a collective effort, including Ballard's roster. And that collapse continued well after Reich left. He gets the blame because the expectations were set way too high for that team (was a common thing during those years).

 

But not getting it done when it counts has been a theme of the post-Luck Ballard era, regardless of the coaching staff. I don't put that all on Ballard because he's not on the field, but it is his team, so he takes responsibility too, which he has done in public.

 

And if only ever being a play away, or whatever preferred maxim, is considered competitive and successful, then yes, I think that bar has been set too low. Especially too low for someone who's been called a top 10 GM, like was stated in the post I responded to. I see "competitive" is subjective, so to each their own, but if the past 3 years are considered competitive, then the 20 teams that have averaged more wins were also competitive, which waters it down as any type of achievement.

 

Sure, it's annoying that the Colts have an overrated GM who hasn't won anything, but it's not so bad for the Colts that I would want to find a new hobby. I just don't have confidence in Ballard, in year 8.

Imo Shane wanted all of our players resigned.  He was in favor of the FA signing.  He was on board with our draft picks.  He now has a healthy AR and JT.  He has a new DL coach.  Let’s see what Shane can do now.  I’m expecting a lot.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I think a lot of the data we have suggests exactly what we know even without it - Ballard is in general very good with draft trades and he gets a lot of value there, he is also relatively good drafter. But there are certainly things I have serious issues with him about. And the choices he makes that might elevate the floor of his team, ultimately lower the ceiling of his teams. In a league where every year you have at least a few teams who go all-in on a window of contention, you will have very hard time competing at the highest level when maximizing steady performance over peak performance. 

 

I've said if before and I will say it again - with Ballard my worries are never that we will be consistently terrible team. My worries are never that he will get us in salary cap hell... My worries are never that he will mortgage our future. My worries are that we will be perpetually mediocre to good. 

 

Agree. I think continuity gets overvalued.

 

Yes, keeping a team in tact and having continuity should raise the floor of the team (assuming that core has established that floor) and limit possible downside from year-to-year.

 

But it doesn't carry the same unknown upside as external moves. On the flipside, those external moves have downside (roster fit, scheme fit, locker room fit etc.).

 

It's a balance, but to me, the upside of external moves is just more valuable, especially in a sport where windows open and close fast...and players age out. Realistically, how long do you get a with a core roster?

 

We also typically only see SB contending teams place such a value on continuity because they have established that floor. But they also make external moves as well to push them over the top.

 

I think IND, TEN and HOU will be a good case study for different approaches with a QB on a rookie deal.

 

 

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Agree. I think continuity gets overvalued.

 

Yes, keeping a team in tact and having continuity should raise the floor of the team (assuming that core has established that floor) and limit possible downside from year-to-year.

 

But it doesn't carry the same unknown upside as external moves. On the flipside, those external moves have downside (roster fit, scheme fit, locker room fit etc.).

 

It's a balance, but to me, the upside of external moves is just more valuable, especially in a sport where windows open and close fast...and players age out. Realistically, how long do you get a with a core roster?

 

We also typically only see SB contending teams place such a value on continuity because they have established that floor. But they also make external moves as well to push them over the top.

 

I think IND, TEN and HOU will be a good case study for different approaches with a QB on a rookie deal.

 

 

 

Selective continuity is important but yes, it is not necessary everywhere.

 

QB having the same OC schemes, continuity is important. The OL having most of the same personnel year after year, continuity is important - helps the QB and skill positions as a whole.

 

The D - to me, in the current NFL, the secondary more than DL needs more continuity due to the area they have to cover to be on the same page. 

 

The rest, you can have a little delta across years, IMO. This is by no means an indictment on the positional importance but just focusing on the continuity of schemes and tutelage of young players.

[ColtStrong2013]

2 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Sure, it's annoying that the Colts have an overrated GM who hasn't won anything, but it's not so bad for the Colts that I would want to find a new hobby. I just don't have confidence in Ballard, in year 8.

 

I have more confidence in him than I did 2 years ago. In my opinion, he has done exceptionally well the last few offseasons starting with the Steichen hire and continuing through the drafts/retaining players, after a very close finish on the season last year. To me, last season was like a hard reset on the 2022 season and jumping back to where they were the prior year before the collapse, except better equipped and better leadership heading the team. I don't know if he's overrated because I've never seen anything/anyone of substance say he's rated high (or as high as you are assuming i guess.) It's all been where everyone on here would say/assume. Like the roster, I think Ballard has a lot of potential. He's methodical, he has had success evaluating and drafting. He's struggled with hitting premium positions and roster building to get over the hump that the franchise has been stuck on since 12 left. I believe in learning from mistakes, think that he's shown growth in a lot of ways, and I don't think I'm willing to bet against him. 
 

But I'm also a Colts fan that won't jump ship, so I'm biased. I can't imagine wanting to jump now. That seems wild to me. Suffer through the end of 2021 through all of 2022, and then finish the way we did last year. If you were going to jump, I'm not sure why you would wait until now...