Chris Ballard on Pat McAfee Show about the draft

[wig]

18 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Actually Lombardi had said that if Murphy was on the board, the Colts may have picked him. I threw that out weeks ago as Buckner is getting older the   3tech is the most important position on this defense. 

 

If they couldn't trade up and Latu and Bowers were gone, I think it was a coin flip between him and Mitchell. I'm assuming they liked him but that he was their 4th or 5th option

 

[RollerColt]

6 minutes ago, DougDew said:

No.  But once they have the years of experience and system training to reach that level, I think they are more interchangeable with each other than what most folks think.  Certainly their success or failure is based more on random things out of their control than what they get praised or blamed for.  JMO.

Would you go as far to say that ownership can be the main wildcard for teams deviating from expectations? 

[DougDew]

17 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Actually Lombardi had said that if Murphy was on the board, the Colts may have picked him. I threw that out weeks ago as Buckner is getting older the   3tech is the most important position on this defense. 

Well, he may be the best defensive prospect this year.  Nothing wrong with that pick despite what Buckner does.

 

BTW, this feeds into my point.  Maybe when a player falls, teams start adjusting their draft boards to think about that player harder.  Maybe Ballard has some thoughts on what to do with DeFo in a couple of years, and starts to select "plan c" because he's now got Murphy staring him in the face. 

 

Maybe another team adjusts their board unexpectedly based upon a falling player, and snipes a player you wouldn't think that team snipes.  Ballard is waiting for Ad to fall to 52.  Does he know that John Lynch sees AD falling, and knows that Lynch isn't going to think about trading Aiyuk or Deebo now that AD is more in range...and isn't going to unexpectedly snipe AD because Lynch now sees his board and situation slightly different.  No, you can't really target a specific player by sitting there waiting for him to fall to you, because nobody knows how this is going to play out.

[wig]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Well, he may be the best defensive prospect this year.  Nothing wrong with that pick despite what Buckner does.

 

BTW, this feeds into my point.  Maybe when a player falls, teams start adjusting their draft boards to think about that player harder.  Maybe Ballard has some thoughts on what to do with DeFo in a couple of years, and starts to select "plan c" because he's now got Murphy staring him in the face. 

 

Maybe another team adjusts their board unexpectedly based upon a falling player, and snipes a player you wouldn't think that team snipes.  Ballard is waiting for Ad to fall to 52.  Does he know that John Lynch sees AD falling, and knows that Lynch isn't going to think about trading Aiyuk or Deebo now that AD is more in range...and isn't going to unexpectedly snipe AD because Lynch now sees his board and situation slightly different.  No, you can't really target a specific player by sitting there waiting for him to fall to you, because nobody knows how this is going to play out.

 

They aren't adjusting anything with the 15th pick. The board is the board and they've agonized over every scenario for months

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Would you go as far to say that ownership can be the main wildcard for teams deviating from expectations? 

Do you mean meddling?  Sure, I mean its reported that Arthur Blank screwed his GM by wanting Penix.  Tough break for the new GM, and it makes it harder for Blanc to evaluate him I'd think.  I hope the new guy doesn't get blamed for stuff that was out of his control.

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, wig said:

 

They aren't adjusting anything with the 15th pick. The board is the board and they've agonized over every scenario for months

I meant whether or not he's the pick.  Going into the draft they probably have scenarios of how to pursue the existing roster based upon if a player falls.  Example, if DeFo is near contract time, the falling of Murphy begins a thought about not resigning DeFO more strongly than what you'd think if you thought he would have been gone by pick 15.

 

I'm not saying specific here about the Colts and Defo.  What I'm saying is that these are the types of things that happen with all 32 teams, and Ballard can't tell you that another team is going to execute a strategic roster plan...and not snipe or will snipe based upon a player falling.  Instead of not knowing how this plays out,  Ballard telling us what other teams will do would be described as knowing how this stuff will play out.

[RollerColt]

Just now, DougDew said:

Do you mean meddling?  Sure, I mean its reported that Arthur Blank screwed his GM by wanting Penix.  Tough break for the new GM, and it makes it harder for Blanc to evaluate him I'd think.  I hope the new guy doesn't get blamed for stuff that was out of his control.

I have to say, I do agree that a lot of GMs are on a similar level as far as skill and talent. That's how they got to where they are. 

 

Some will be more inexperienced than others, some are more aggressive while others are passive. I think there are a lot of varying philosophies on running an NFL team compared to running a normal business. 

 

I don't think everyone's board is the same. I'm sure there are some overlap especially at the top. But in the middle I would imagine it's far more varied. There's only so many scouts, so many days and hours, and thousands of players to evaluate. They aren't going to catch them all. 

 

But, I will say there is always going to be some luck and chance probability involved when it comes to the draft. That's just a truth in life itself. 

[shasta519]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Do you mean meddling?  Sure, I mean its reported that Arthur Blank screwed his GM by wanting Penix.  Tough break for the new GM, and it makes it harder for Blanc to evaluate him I'd think.  I hope the new guy doesn't get blamed for stuff that was out of his control.

 

Is that how it went down? It was a curious move because they just paid Cousins a bag. But this approach worked pretty well for GB.

 

ATL's offense is pretty stacked and putting in a proven QB like Cousins will allow them to maximize and evaluate those pieces immediately. Meanwhile, Penix develops in the background. And they bought themselves 3 years to find out.  

 

Plus, they did get Turner as well, who I think was their #1 target. 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

I have to say, I do agree that a lot of GMs are on a similar level as far as skill and talent. That's how they got to where they are. 

 

Some will be more inexperienced than others, some are more aggressive while others are passive. I think there are a lot of varying philosophies on running an NFL team compared to running a normal business. 

 

I don't think everyone's board is the same. I'm sure there are some overlap especially at the top. But in the middle I would imagine it's far more varied. There's only so many scouts, so many days and hours, and thousands of players to evaluate. They aren't going to catch them all. 

 

But, I will say there is always going to be some luck and chance probability involved when it comes to the draft. That's just a truth in life itself. 

It comes down to having a basic understanding of the broad buckets.  Generally, first rounders will be expected to play at a high NFL level sooner than the guy you pick in the third round, and then the guy you pick in the 5th round.  If the guy you pick in the 5th round steps up and plays well very soon, your team got the eval wrong and so did every other team.  If only one other team got it right, your wrongness that drove you to wait until round 5 made you miss your guy.  

 

I think teams boards are different, but what team these days would not want a coverage LB that steps up right away.  All schemes can use that.  Same with a quick twitch corner with arms, a safety that can read and react, a WR that can run patterns, or always find the zone, and can catch (see Puca).  Its not like teams will reject these players because they are not perfect scheme fits.  If they think those guys can play well very soon, they go high on the boards.  Teams missed it with Puca too, unless you think his success is all because of McVay and Stafford.  IDK, seems like a stretch to me.

[DougDew]

13 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Is that how it went down? It was a curious move because they just paid Cousins a bag. But this approach worked pretty well for GB.

 

ATL's offense is pretty stacked and putting in a proven QB like Cousins will allow them to maximize and evaluate those pieces immediately. Meanwhile, Penix develops in the background. And they bought themselves 3 years to find out.  

 

Plus, they did get Turner as well, who I think was their #1 target. 

ATL did not get Turner.  They eventually trade up in the second for an obscure 3T DT. 

 

I read that The GM and HC wanted Latu, but the owner stepped in for Penix because he wanted a succession plan.  Read into that what you want.  Also, I guess since ATL seemed to want to trade up to 10 for Latu, its seems somebody wanted him pretty highly.

 

That's why there are also thoughts...don't get excited...that Ballard got a bit lucky with latu being there at 15.  Basically, the GMs had the 1st round pegged pretty well, then in swoops Blanc and reshuffles the playing deck for everyone.  LVR was mad too, because they wanted Penix at 13.  So if things would have gone to script....who knows who Ballard would have picked since Latu probably would not have been there.

[RollerColt]

26 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Teams missed it with Puca too, unless you think his success is all because of McVay and Stafford.  IDK, seems like a stretch to me.

I think we can give Stafford a little bit of credit. He's a fantastic QB. I think the QB-WR relationship is far more complex than many give credit. They both need each other to do the job well in order for the other to succeed. 

 

Johnson, Kupp, Nacua. All 1,000 yard receivers. All played with Stafford. He knows how to get his star receivers the ball and put them into a position to succeed (YAC). It's why I was really wanting him to come to Indy years ago. 

[chad72]

47 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Is that how it went down? It was a curious move because they just paid Cousins a bag. But this approach worked pretty well for GB.

 

ATL's offense is pretty stacked and putting in a proven QB like Cousins will allow them to maximize and evaluate those pieces immediately. Meanwhile, Penix develops in the background. And they bought themselves 3 years to find out.  

 

Plus, they did get Turner as well, who I think was their #1 target. 

 

Vikings got Dallas Turner. 

 

Both Love and Rodgers went in the mid to late 20s, so GB could maximize their first rounder value, move back into the first round for the QB that is dropping. So to me, it is not the same.

 

The downside of using No.8 is if Cousins plays well for 3 years (say), and they haven't made the SB but have made an NFCCG and divisional round (say), they have put Penix in a bad situation and still have nothing to show for such a high value No.8 pick. Penix could get disgruntled like Jordan Love did with Rodgers around asking for a trade and the Falcons have nothing to show for but a stubbornness to not trade Penix Jr. at that point. If Penix Jr. plays after 3 years and is average, they have the same dilemma again 2 years later. So what value did that No.8 pick truly give them? 

 

From what I am hearing, Falcons were the only team that highly interested in Penix Jr., and by picking him at No.8 with players like Odunze, Bowers, best pass rushers like Latu and Turner available, they have put both Cousins and Penix Jr. on a collision course with a potential bad situation 3 years down the road. Raheem Morris' twisted logic was "we might not pick that high next year", and if that were the case, moving back into Round 1 around the 20s giving up a future 1st rounder would put money where his mouth is, trusting their first rounder would be a playoff team type 1st rounder, like the Texans with their Will Anderson trade deal.

 

Plus, knowing their situation they got themselves into, even if they try to get Cousins traded 2 years later after JUST making a wild card playoff game or divisional round game, other teams will say "fat chance, we ain't bailing you out of a situation you created yourself".

[Moosejawcolt]

45 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Is that how it went down? It was a curious move because they just paid Cousins a bag. But this approach worked pretty well for GB.

 

ATL's offense is pretty stacked and putting in a proven QB like Cousins will allow them to maximize and evaluate those pieces immediately. Meanwhile, Penix develops in the background. And they bought themselves 3 years to find out.  

 

Plus, they did get Turner as well, who I think was their #1 target. 

Its not stacked when you consider  that their Oline is not good. They went skill and ignored the trenches for the last few years

[Moosejawcolt]

35 minutes ago, DougDew said:

ATL did not get Turner.  They eventually trade up in the second for an obscure 3T DT. 

 

I read that The GM and HC wanted Latu, but the owner stepped in for Penix because he wanted a succession plan.  Read into that what you want.  Also, I guess since ATL seemed to want to trade up to 10 for Latu, its seems somebody wanted him pretty highly.

 

That's why there are also thoughts...don't get excited...that Ballard got a bit lucky with latu being there at 15.  Basically, the GMs had the 1st round pegged pretty well, then in swoops Blanc and reshuffles the playing deck for everyone.  LVR was mad too, because they wanted Penix at 13.  So if things would have gone to script....who knows who Ballard would have picked since Latu probably would not have been there.

I bet when Ballard and the Colts looked at their board, they had Murphy and Latua coming off the board. The Bears, ATL, Raiders and the Saints were the teams that I thought may go D with their first pick. The best rush end and DT do not usually last till 15 and 16. It was just an odd year with 6 qbs taken. Then you factor in the 2 Oline and 3 wrs and possibly generational te. It really was the 6 qbs drafted that made this possible.

[shasta519]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

ATL did not get Turner.  They eventually trade up in the second for an obscure 3T DT. 

 

I read that The GM and HC wanted Latu, but the owner stepped in for Penix because he wanted a succession plan.  Read into that what you want.  Also, I guess since ATL seemed to want to trade up to 10 for Latu, its seems somebody wanted him pretty highly.

 

That's why there are also thoughts...don't get excited...that Ballard got a bit lucky with latu being there at 15.  Basically, the GMs had the 1st round pegged pretty well, then in swoops Blanc and reshuffles the playing deck for everyone.  LVR was mad too, because they wanted Penix at 13.  So if things would have gone to script....who knows who Ballard would have picked since Latu probably would not have been there.

 

Correct. Guess I got confused MIN (McCarthy and Turner) with ATL. 

 

Ballard did get lucky with Latu being there, regardless. No defensive players went off the board until pick #15. Doubt that has ever happened

[shasta519]

22 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Its not stacked when you consider  that their Oline is not good. They went skill and ignored the trenches for the last few years

 

ATL has a top 5 OL with Matthews (2014 R1), Bergeron (2023 R2), Dalman (2021 R4), Lindstrom (2019 R1) and McGary (2019 R1).

 

They have invested in the OL, they just haven't had to do it a whole lot because they have hit.

 

Sort of similar to the Colts OL. In fact, they might have an even better OL than the Colts, at least right now.

 

Then they have Pitts at TE1, London at WR1 and Bijan at RB1. Plus, they added Mooney and Rondale Moore to round out their WR depth. Assuming Pitts is finally healthy (more than a full year removed from the PCL/MCL surgery), ATL is stacked with weapons and on the OL. Add Cousins' passing to that and they have top 5 offense potential.

 

After the Penix pick, their next 5 picks were all front 7 players on defense too. The Penix pick might end up being a bust, but it likely won't matter for 3 years.

  

[Solid84]

47 minutes ago, chad72 said:

The downside of using No.8 is if Cousins plays well for 3 years (say), and they haven't made the SB but have made an NFCCG and divisional round (say), they have put Penix in a bad situation and still have nothing to show for such a high value No.8 pick. Penix could get disgruntled like Jordan Love did with Rodgers around asking for a trade and the Falcons have nothing to show for but a stubbornness to not trade Penix Jr. at that point. If Penix Jr. plays after 3 years and is average, they have the same dilemma again 2 years later. So what value did that No.8 pick truly give them? 

These aren’t the only two scenarios though. 
 

What if Cousins gets hurt?

What if Penix looks really promising and after 3 years they don’t have to hand Cousins another big contract?

 

I can see why the Falcons did it. Say Cousins balls out, the Falcons may not be in position to draft a good QB again for a while. 
 

Not saying I think it’s the best move they could’ve made, but there are logical reasons for it. 

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

These aren’t the only two scenarios though. 
 

What if Cousins gets hurt?

What if Penix looks really promising and after 3 years they don’t have to hand Cousins another big contract?

 

I can see why the Falcons did it. Say Cousins balls out, the Falcons may not be in position to draft a good QB again for a while. 
 

Not saying I think it’s the best move they could’ve made, but there are logical reasons for it. 

 

They are not anticipating Cousins to play more than 2 years and he gets $100 mil. guaranteed still. They were never planning with Cousins as their long term. That is the best case scenario for them to find out. 

 

So there was NEVER an intention of handing Cousins another contract. The longer Cousins plays well without major injuries, on the surface they may say it is great for the franchise, which is true but how does it result in playing time for Penix Jr. without a trade or major injury and he is probably in the Geno Smith boat being a starter that late in his career while starting as an older QB?

 

Love the player Penix Jr., just don't love where he was picked, thought he was underrated but wish he had gone to a different team that could get him playing time sooner than later. After the first 2 QBs, everyone else, I felt was overdrafted.

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, wig said:

 

If they couldn't trade up and Latu and Bowers were gone, I think it was a coin flip between him and Mitchell. I'm assuming they liked him but that he was their 4th or 5th option

 

I am not sure Bowers was the target. They apparently said there was a sizeable offer made to move up. I don't think you would have to make a sizeable offer to move up to say #10 to make sure you get Bowers. I think it was Harrison or Nabors. I know people think it is Harrison but I lean more towards Nabers because I think they wanted a burner. The AD pick kind of lead me to believe what kind of wr they favored in this draft. Plus, I think they knew they had to move up to #4 as I had Zona taking Harrison because of his height and size and how they fit Murray's game.  They probably targeted the Chargers but like I said, Harbaugh was going Oline and Ault was their guy. I had Bears going wr as I said on this forum to pair him with Williams. If the Colts were favoring the 3rd receiver, cant spell his name, I think that would have been a bad move to give up a lot to get him.  I just don't think the teams in the top 5 wanted to move down to 15. That is quite a drop.  I think the guys that were considered elite were Harrison, Ault and Nabors at their positions and that is not including qbs. Those teams picking high in the draft were probably not really interested in who they thought might be there at 15.

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, wig said:

 

If they couldn't trade up and Latu and Bowers were gone, I think it was a coin flip between him and Mitchell. I'm assuming they liked him but that he was their 4th or 5th option

 

yeah, the more I follow Ballard's drafts, he is just not going to pick that man corner. I wanted Mitchell at 15, but they have a definite player they want to play the corner position.

18 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

They are not anticipating Cousins to play more than 2 years and he gets $100 mil. guaranteed still. They were never planning with Cousins as their long term. That is the best case scenario for them to find out. 

 

So there was NEVER an intention of handing Cousins another contract. The longer Cousins plays well without major injuries, on the surface they may say it is great for the franchise, which is true but how does it result in playing time for Penix Jr. without a trade or major injury and he is probably in the Geno Smith boat being a starter that late in his career while starting as an older QB?

 

Love the player Penix Jr., just don't love where he was picked, thought he was underrated but wish he had gone to a different team that could get him playing time sooner than later. After the first 2 QBs, everyone else, I felt was overdrafted.

The worst pick in NFL history and it aint close lol

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

ATL did not get Turner.  They eventually trade up in the second for an obscure 3T DT. 

 

I read that The GM and HC wanted Latu, but the owner stepped in for Penix because he wanted a succession plan.  Read into that what you want.  Also, I guess since ATL seemed to want to trade up to 10 for Latu, its seems somebody wanted him pretty highly.

 

That's why there are also thoughts...don't get excited...that Ballard got a bit lucky with latu being there at 15.  Basically, the GMs had the 1st round pegged pretty well, then in swoops Blanc and reshuffles the playing deck for everyone.  LVR was mad too, because they wanted Penix at 13.  So if things would have gone to script....who knows who Ballard would have picked since Latu probably would not have been there.

Ballard really benefited from Alanta's ability to having no idea on how to build a team. I also thought picking Bowers was not a good  decision. They should have went defense and paired Murphy or Latua with Crosby.  

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I bet when Ballard and the Colts looked at their board, they had Murphy and Latua coming off the board. The Bears, ATL, Raiders and the Saints were the teams that I thought may go D with their first pick. The best rush end and DT do not usually last till 15 and 16. It was just an odd year with 6 qbs taken. Then you factor in the 2 Oline and 3 wrs and possibly generational te. It really was the 6 qbs drafted that made this possible.

And that is part of my point about how GMs benefit from circumstances and are hindered at other times.  Its hard for me to draw a bright line between most of them in terms of being really good or really bad, because the card deck is different each year and can get reshuffled mid draft by some wonky things.  No doubt the Colts draft benefited by some talent falling a bit more in both the first and second rounds because of some unexpected things.  Those things feel in our favor this year, but may not in other years.  I'd hate to be the GM of LVR right now.  Although they got Bowers (and I like O'Donnell more than most) he's probably got set back by not having Penix there to draft as projected.

 

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I bet when Ballard and the Colts looked at their board, they had Murphy and Latua coming off the board. The Bears, ATL, Raiders and the Saints were the teams that I thought may go D with their first pick. The best rush end and DT do not usually last till 15 and 16. It was just an odd year with 6 qbs taken. Then you factor in the 2 Oline and 3 wrs and possibly generational te. It really was the 6 qbs drafted that made this possible.

When you do sit back and analyze the draft most of the picks in front of the Colts make sense.

1) Williams. Not a fan of  the player but I get it.

2) Daniels- Need a qb and #2 rated qb

3) Maye-I think the Giants and another team wanted him bad but Patriots just decided to get him and not move back.

4)They needed to pair Harrison with the midget and justify that stupid contract they gave Murray. Give Murray the most polished and tallest receiver in the draft lol. 

5)Harbaugh loves the trenches and  wouldn't pass on Ault. Look at Harbaugh's history in building a team. 

6) I think the Giants really wanted Maye and were trying to move up but Patriots were not budging. They picked best player available in Nabors and hoping it will help Jones and it wont.

7) Need to protect Levis as the GM picked him last year and need to see if he is the guy

8)Now this is where it went off the rails and stupidest pick in NFL history I think. I had the best D player going here

9) They wanted to pair the 3rd best wr on their board with Williams and I called it when people said the Colts would trade with the Bears and grab a receiver at #9. I get it but would have picked Murphy as it is a perfect fit for Eberflus' defense. 

10) Minny loves McCarthy and moved up one spot to make sure they got him.

11) Picked best OT on the board as they need to protect Rodgers upright as the coach and GM will be gone if they dont make the play offs

12) If he was still there, Nix is a perfect qb for what Sean wants

13)Bowers is elite but luxury pick. I would have went best D player on the board. They drafted a tight end high last year. I thought a dumb pick

14) Saints could have picked best player and they went Oline so cannot fault him

15) Ballard should have bought a lottery ticket the day of the draft because Latu fell into his lap. No need to think it over just turn the card!

[Moosejawcolt]

8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

And that is part of my point about how GMs benefit from circumstances and are hindered at other times.  Its hard for me to draw a bright line between most of them in terms of being really good or really bad, because the card deck is different each year and can get reshuffled mid draft by some wonky things.  No doubt the Colts draft benefited by some talent falling a bit more in both the first and second rounds because of some unexpected things.  Those things feel in our favor this year, but may not in other years.  I'd hate to be the GM of LVR right now.  Although they got Bowers (and I like O'Donnell more than most) he's probably got set back by not having Penix there to draft as projected.

 

Yeah, I don't think a lot of teams wanted to budge who were in the top 10. I know Lombardi said they were 12 first rounders and Ballard said 19-21. Maybe Lombardi was more right and teams just didn't want to get out of the top 12-15 spots? 

[shasta519]

40 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Vikings got Dallas Turner. 

 

Both Love and Rodgers went in the mid to late 20s, so GB could maximize their first rounder value, move back into the first round for the QB that is dropping. So to me, it is not the same.

 

The downside of using No.8 is if Cousins plays well for 3 years (say), and they haven't made the SB but have made an NFCCG and divisional round (say), they have put Penix in a bad situation and still have nothing to show for such a high value No.8 pick. Penix could get disgruntled like Jordan Love did with Rodgers around asking for a trade and the Falcons have nothing to show for but a stubbornness to not trade Penix Jr. at that point. If Penix Jr. plays after 3 years and is average, they have the same dilemma again 2 years later. So what value did that No.8 pick truly give them? 

 

From what I am hearing, Falcons were the only team that highly interested in Penix Jr., and by picking him at No.8 with players like Odunze, Bowers, best pass rushers like Latu and Turner available, they have put both Cousins and Penix Jr. on a collision course with a potential bad situation 3 years down the road. Raheem Morris' twisted logic was "we might not pick that high next year", and if that were the case, moving back into Round 1 around the 20s giving up a future 1st rounder would put money where his mouth is, trusting their first rounder would be a playoff team type 1st rounder, like the Texans with their Will Anderson trade deal.

 

Plus, knowing their situation they got themselves into, even if they try to get Cousins traded 2 years later after JUST making a wild card playoff game or divisional round game, other teams will say "fat chance, we ain't bailing you out of a situation you created yourself".

 

They couldn't have known they were the only ones interested in Penix though. I had heard that LV was also interested, but there's always rumors at this time.

 

No guarantee there will be a QB they like as much as Penix next year, or the following year. Looking at the premium picks it required to get QB 4-6 in this draft, it could be a really steep price to move from the mid 20s to get a QB too. 

 

I guess if they think they can be a playoff team with Cousins for 2-3 years, then there is some logic to making sure you get the guy when you can. Plus, Penix is a bit of a developmental prospect, so Cousins buys time for him to develop, while also allowing them to compete/contend. It's dual paths.

 

I don't know if I see a collision course with Cousins. He's a really good QB and he will be the starter for at least the next two years (first two seasons are both gtd), but prob 3 years. I am sure that is understood in the locker room. After that, they re-evaluate and there's a chance they are able to make a smooth transition. Plus the young skill position players will be in their primes and in a better position to support a young QB.

 

It's an interesting approach. No idea if it will work ahd might be overkill. But it's far better than running out Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. I just don't see passing on Latu, Odunze, Murphy, etc. as some move that will drastically alter the franchise three years from now.

 

 

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, wig said:

 

If they couldn't trade up and Latu and Bowers were gone, I think it was a coin flip between him and Mitchell. I'm assuming they liked him but that he was their 4th or 5th option

 

 I think based on how they run this defense and player importance.  I truly believe that Murphy and Mitchell could have the same grade, but he is man corner and Murphy is a 3 tech. The 3tech is like the qb of this defense. Everything runs through him. Murphy would have been the pick and I could have lived with that. I really wonder what the Colts offered to move up ?  We will probably find out some day. I bet if it was as low as # 4, I bet it was this years #15 and 2 other 1st rounders.

[chad72]

35 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

They couldn't have known they were the only ones interested in Penix though. I had heard that LV was also interested, but there's always rumors at this time.

 

No guarantee there will be a QB they like as much as Penix next year, or the following year. Looking at the premium picks it required to get QB 4-6 in this draft, it could be a really steep price to move from the mid 20s to get a QB too. 

 

I guess if they think they can be a playoff team with Cousins for 2-3 years, then there is some logic to making sure you get the guy when you can. Plus, Penix is a bit of a developmental prospect, so Cousins buys time for him to develop, while also allowing them to compete/contend. It's dual paths.

 

I don't know if I see a collision course with Cousins. He's a really good QB and he will be the starter for at least the next two years (first two seasons are both gtd), but prob 3 years. I am sure that is understood in the locker room. After that, they re-evaluate and there's a chance they are able to make a smooth transition. Plus the young skill position players will be in their primes and in a better position to support a young QB.

 

It's an interesting approach. No idea if it will work ahd might be overkill. But it's far better than running out Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. I just don't see passing on Latu, Odunze, Murphy, etc. as some move that will drastically alter the franchise three years from now.

 

 

 

Here is the thing, we don't know if it could have altered the franchise 1-2 years from now. But there is a good chance a player other than Penix chosen at No.8 would be playing as a starter in the next 2 years versus Penix not playing. Windows don't stay open forever. They decided to go into a "win now" window mode by signing Cousins to $180 mil. and chose not to maximize it with the No.8 pick. No guarantees that all those star players that Cousins will get the most out of or free agents signed will continue the window when Penix does become starter. I am rooting for Penix but doubt the value the Falcons will receive out of the No.8 pick for years, that is all. It is an ALL IN move by a GM that hasn't fielded a single season with a winning record, and Morris got behind it, especially when the bust rate for QBs drafted in the Top 10 is high enough, gets even worse when you remove the No.1 pick.

 

Mood / sentiment on their own boards are mixed as well:

 

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2024/5/3/24146647/the-falcons-are-officially-in-all-madden-mode-with-their-quarterback-plan-michael-penix-kirk-cousins

 

 

 

 

[MacDee1975]

On 4/30/2024 at 8:46 PM, BlackTiger said:

Personally I think even with Flowers and Brents we still have one of the worst CB groups in the league.

 

They are both just guys

 

What in the world were you watching?  Brents projects to be very good.

[NewColtsFan]

18 hours ago, DougDew said:

No, why would I notice something like that?  

 

No.  He may have said that, but that isn't the video I'm talking about.  There is a video of him in the draft room exactly at pick 53, looking at his draft board (we see his face so the board is unseen behind the camera)  looks around the room talking to the staff, and finally says, "lets go with the wide out".  Nothing about that suggests that he had that specific debate between those two players AP and JW, ahead of time to where it was a clear decision to take AP over JW the day before the draft.  Maybe you never saw that video.

 

Yes, everybody has the same info on the players.  All players are ranked as the top 250 prospects on all 32 teams' prospect board within a variance of about 5% throughout the ranking.  The difference is in how teams use the info that forms their actual draft boards.  So when Ballard says...and he just did in this presser...".Nobody has any idea how this stuff will play out"....he's talking about how no one GM (meaning himself) knows how all 31 GM are going to use the information.  He has absolutely no working knowledge that tells him a player isn't going to be sniped ahead of him, (See ATL trying to trade up for Latu) That's why he. and other GMs, have a GROUP of players they are comfortable taking at a certain slot.  It may work out to  where the highest ranked player within that group is still available, but that's not the same thing as "targeting that player" 

 

Trading UP is the proof that a GMs targets a specific player, like CAR just did with Brooks at 46, Ballard previously did with JT at 41, and Grigsy did with TY at the end of round 2, etc.  There are examples all over the NFL where teams trade up to get players they targeted, but standing pat or trading down is not how they "target" a specific player.  That's where they settle for one of a group of players that they think will be there when they pick.  In round 1, they can better predict if a player will come to them, but not so much in round 2, 3, 4, etc.  The margin of error in their assessment of what other teams with do is just too big.  No, there is no proof that Ballard targets a mid round player by waiting for him...or trading down for him.  Its more likely that he picks the best player out of the group of players he will settle for.  

 

You probably should adjust your understanding of the concept of GMs "targeting players" to what it actually is.  Its not easy, because their are a lot of paid talking heads in the media using the term wrongly, IMO.

 

Do you think teams wanting a top 10 LT (and which team would not even shuffle their oline or cap to accommodate) would pass on him through pick 77 because he was 3 years older than the typical college graduate, when LTs have careers that typically span 10 years or more?  It makes no sense that they would be hung up on that three years.

 

Before your time, a truly great GM, Bill Polian, took LB Rob Morris at pick 26 because he was a player who was thought to be able to start immediately and because it was a position of need.  At the first round presser, BP call RM, "overaged", because he was 24 or 5 coming off his mission from BYU.  Overaged by three years, and still took him in the first round because he "strongly thought" he was a player who could step in and fill a position of need right away.  He didn't wait until the third round because of concern about how old he would be years down the road when he had to think about a second contract.  So, yes, when teams think a player won't be able to step in and play well right away, they slide to the mid rounds.  Those are called "developmental players".

 

That was the Luck/Griffin year...and yes, pundits all over the place had him ranked as a third rounder.  Seems SEA had him ranked no differently than others on their draft board. 

 

Again, the prospects are ranked similarly.  Who teams want to draft out of a grouping is obviously different. 

 

The point being made by me...and Ballard...is that no GM knows what the other 31 GMs will do at any given moment....they don't know the other teams' draft boards.

 

But they all know the traits of the players and have similar ideas about what kind of prospect they will be, and whether or not they can play right away or take a season or two to earn a starting job.  That part of the evaluation is all the same amongst 32 teams, IMO.

 

Because they don't know what other teams will do, and don't know other teams draft boards is why why Frank was high fiving.  There was excitement  in getting the players they wanted, in that no other team took them or sniped them.  If they knew what other GMs were going to do, they would have known they would have gotten those players and it would be non suspenseful. 

 

But. its possible that Ballard was way off in how he ranked his prospects compared to other teams back then, and everybody was excited when they didn't have to be.  

 

And I'm not going to believe for a moment, that Ballard lets himself be some dullard blank canvas between the ears that won't make a pick until his HC draws him a picture of who to pick.  Especially on the defense and in every round.  Especially when he deliberates with only himself and then he's the one telling the others in the room "lets go with the wide out".  Sorry, not buying it.

 

Yes, that difference is what dictates their draft boards.  But, they all have the same knowledge of what the different player traits are.  They know which ones are fast, slow, twitchy, good balance, arm length, etc.  As the Raimann example, they all evaluate him as being a successful NFL LT.  His experience at a small school, weight (like Freeland), years as an olineman when he was a former TE, all weigh into their conclusion about how long they think it would take him to be a starter.  They all saw his traits and experience as not being worthy of a pick higher than 77, and they misjudged how quickly he learned the NFL game. 

 

Same with Mathis, Saturday, Brady, Purdy, etc... all the teams know what these players traits are, and they all feed them through the same evaluation process, and that process misses players from time to time.  Contrast that thought with what I've been reading, that Ballard knew Raimann was good and dropped him only because of age, which means that better GMs like Polian, NE, and Lynch must have known those players would be what they would be....and knew that no other team figured it out so they waited.  To me, that makes no sense.  IMO, they all got lucky relative to how well they thought each player would play when they drafted them.

 

That's great.  And I sincerely hope that you've enjoyed your career.  

 

But, I'm the kind of person that doesn't care about credentials.  I judge the content for what it says.

 

Thanks for staying calm.

 

Well Doug….  The joke is on me!   I spent an hour writing that post, and when I pressed submit the Colts.com website froze up.   I thought the post was never sent.  Then tonight, I opened your response and I find that you indeed received it.   Weird.   Odd.   Oh well.  
 

I’m going to let this stand alone.  I’ll respond to the bulk of your post over the weekend, and then we can wind this down.   
 

 

[Zoltan]

On 5/2/2024 at 7:08 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

I actually heard that Falcons tried to trade back into top 10 to get Latua. That's coming from Lombardi

That would be quite the trade up, I could only imagine what they would have to give up.

[throwing BBZ]

22 hours ago, wig said:

 

They aren't adjusting anything with the 15th pick. The board is the board and they've agonized over every scenario for months

 

 Ballard laughing after we drafted Latu. "We just got the best pass rusher in the draft."

 It just doesn't happen.

 Ballard going after a trade up was a huge adjustment. 

And of course if their board was already shot it would have been a scramble to trade back.

 It was absolutely Wild watching Philly making adjustments in so many rounds.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

On 5/4/2024 at 5:18 AM, Zoltan said:

That would be quite the trade up, I could only imagine what they would have to give up.

Yeah no one was going to drop clear to the second round.  Falcons should have taken jj McCarthy. At least  him for 2 years would have been justified. What they did after signing cousins to that much was two silly.

[Myles]

I have no issue with the Falcons drafting a QB.  Just have to wait and see.  If he sits for 2 years and then is great, it'll be more of an Aaron Rodgers thing.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

15 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Yeah no one was going to drop clear to the second round.  Falcons should have taken jj McCarthy. At least  him for 2 years would have been justified. What they did after signing cousins to that much was two silly.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just stick this question here. Did Diggs ever play under Bradley? The familiarity could be good but I also think Simmons has more in the tank. You could sign Simmons for 2 years and feel comfortable.

 

 

I don’t think we will sign a vet safety until closer to TC. Those guys will hold out as long as possible.

[w87r]

17 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Just stick this question here. Did Diggs ever play under Bradley? The familiarity could be good but I also think Simmons has more in the tank. You could sign Simmons for 2 years and feel comfortable.

 

 

I don’t think we will sign a vet safety until closer to TC. Those guys will hold out as long as possible.

No, Diggs never played under Bradley.

 

 

I don't think we sign anyone to multi year deal at this point.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, w87r said:

No, Diggs never played under Bradley.

 

 

I don't think we sign anyone to multi year deal at this point.

Probably won’t but I could see two years for Simmons. Not sure diggs has enough left in the tank for two years.  Colts will need to find a younger long term replacement at FS

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Just stick this question here. Did Diggs ever play under Bradley? The familiarity could be good but I also think Simmons has more in the tank. You could sign Simmons for 2 years and feel comfortable.

 

 

I don’t think we will sign a vet safety until closer to TC. Those guys will hold out as long as possible.

At this stage I think they are going to hold off on signing a safety until they are sure Cross is not ready to start at FS.  I think they will give him training camp to  prove he is ready.  If he is not they will bring in a veteran.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

21 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

At this stage I think they are going to hold off on signing a safety until they are sure Cross is not ready to start at FS.  I think they will give him training camp to  prove he is ready.  If he is not they will bring in a veteran.

There won’t be anyone to sign if they want that long. But they will probably see what happens in OTA. Personally I don’t think colts have a time line. They are on diggs and Simmons schedule. It’s up to them when they feel like signing.

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 5/3/2024 at 1:42 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

When you do sit back and analyze the draft most of the picks in front of the Colts make sense.

1) Williams. Not a fan of  the player but I get it.

2) Daniels- Need a qb and #2 rated qb

3) Maye-I think the Giants and another team wanted him bad but Patriots just decided to get him and not move back.

4)They needed to pair Harrison with the midget and justify that stupid contract they gave Murray. Give Murray the most polished and tallest receiver in the draft lol. 

5)Harbaugh loves the trenches and  wouldn't pass on Ault. Look at Harbaugh's history in building a team. 

6) I think the Giants really wanted Maye and were trying to move up but Patriots were not budging. They picked best player available in Nabors and hoping it will help Jones and it wont.

7) Need to protect Levis as the GM picked him last year and need to see if he is the guy

8)Now this is where it went off the rails and stupidest pick in NFL history I think. I had the best D player going here

9) They wanted to pair the 3rd best wr on their board with Williams and I called it when people said the Colts would trade with the Bears and grab a receiver at #9. I get it but would have picked Murphy as it is a perfect fit for Eberflus' defense. 

10) Minny loves McCarthy and moved up one spot to make sure they got him.

11) Picked best OT on the board as they need to protect Rodgers upright as the coach and GM will be gone if they dont make the play offs

12) If he was still there, Nix is a perfect qb for what Sean wants

13)Bowers is elite but luxury pick. I would have went best D player on the board. They drafted a tight end high last year. I thought a dumb pick

14) Saints could have picked best player and they went Oline so cannot fault him

15) Ballard should have bought a lottery ticket the day of the draft because Latu fell into his lap. No need to think it over just turn the card!

like all but disagree on bowers imo he will be a kelse and gronk type of talent