Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[KB]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

Is it possible the Chargers go for an OT at 5? Or even better - is it possible they are willing to move back? Interesting... 

I've thought this whole offseason that the best use of the chargers pick at number 5 is an OT. WR is flashy but tackles are far more important to the team. They can get a decent tackle in rd 2, but nothing like Joe Alt, Fuana, Fashanu, or Lathem. Lathem would be a trade back candidate, but a good one since the need a RT more than LT.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

When we trade Buckner? 

 

 It is certainly possible we are really good by seasons end in 2024 and more likely in 25. And Buckner absolutely is a stud and should be for the next three years. That said, if there was a high end 3 tech DT say at 15, we get him, then trade Buck to a contender. I think Detroit still has money and certainly could extend him and make him fit. Their D would be fierce.

 And we grab their first and get something fine late first rd. If it were on the table it would be conidered. Again Buck is great so...

[stitches]

Just heard an insane stat about draft success of EDGE players by round on today's PFF podcast. 

 

(since 2015)

% EDGE players who become starters:

- 1st round - 61%

- 2nd round - 25%

- 3d round - 21%

 

% WRs who become starters:

- 1st round - 63%

- 2nd round - 56%

- 3d round - 35% 

 

 

This is a good argument for picking EDGE in R1 and delaying WR for R2... I know this has been an argument @Superman has made before(the WR part at least)... his intuition seems to have been right. 

 

This also explains the big number of failed 2nd round EDGE picks Ballard has made. I.e. it's not just Ballard - the whole league cannot find a ton of 2nd round EDGE starters. 

 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

Wait... Schefter says some think Nabers is top wideout..

 

Brugler re-tweets and said some think Nabers is this whole draft class' Top Player?

 

The Draft season always gives headaches because of guys like this. 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Wait... Schefter says some think Nabers is top wideout..

 

Brugler re-tweets and said some think Nabers is this whole draft class' Top Player?

 

The Draft season always gives headaches because of guys like this. 

Yep. Why is this confusing? 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

Just now, stitches said:

Yep. Why is this confusing? 

Top player = #1 draft overall pick, like some think Nabers could be drafted #1 overall. Does anyone think so? 

 

Top wideout = some think Nabers is #1 WR of this class.

 

If Brugler says Nabers is "a" top player in the draft as in meaning one of the many top players, I think everybody who has seen big boards and mock drafts knows that already. 

[stitches]

Just now, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Top player = #1 draft overall pick, like some think Nabers could be drafted #1 overall. Does anyone think so? 

 

Top wideout = some think Nabers is #1 WR of this class.

 

If Brugler says Nabers is "a" top player in the draft as in meaning one of the many top players, I think everybody who has seen big boards and mock drafts knows that already. 

 

Top player in the draft doesn't automatically mean he will go no. 1 in the draft. Positional value changes things. QBs live in a completely different world. Like... remember when people were saying Quenton Nelson was the best player in his draft? But he was drafted no. 6. 

 

Also... they are not saying that this is the prevailing opinion... just that some people in the league think that... for whatever it's worth. 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

Just now, stitches said:

 

Top player in the draft doesn't automatically mean he will go no. 1 in the draft. Positional value changes things. QBs live in a completely different world. Like... remember when people were saying Quenton Nelson was the best player in his draft? But he was drafted no. 6. 

 

Also... they are not saying that this is the prevailing opinion... just that some people in the league think that... for whatever it's worth. 

I get all that, but he was quoting what Adam Schefter says, and he said a totally different thing...

 

Anyway, your interpretation is better to digest than what he seemed to put out, so that's good. 

[BProland85]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

 

Is it possible the Chargers go for an OT at 5? Or even better - is it possible they are willing to move back? Interesting... 

I truly hope they go LT with Alt at 5 just to screw over the Titans lol. 

[RollerColt]

42 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

I truly hope they go LT with Alt at 5 just to screw over the Titans lol. 

If the top 4 picks all go QB, then the Chargers basically have the 1st overall pick and can do so many things, including trading back. 

[krunk]

19 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

He won’t fall to 15 they would need to trade up to get him and that almost certainly would cost a lot of capital.

This draft for WR is supposed to be like the 2020 draft. In that draft the first WR off the board didn't even happen until pick 12. And then the next one at 15 coincidentally.

 

https://thehuddle.com/2020/04/25/2020-nfl-draft-results-by-round/

 

I'm saying it's not a sure thing that many WR are going high and early

[ProblChld32]

4 hours ago, krunk said:

This draft for WR is supposed to be like the 2020 draft. In that draft the first WR off the board didn't even happen until pick 12. And then the next one at 15 coincidentally.

 

https://thehuddle.com/2020/04/25/2020-nfl-draft-results-by-round/

 

I'm saying it's not a sure thing that many WR are going high and early

Some think that Nabers is actually the best WR in this draft class. I don’t think he makes it out the top 10 if I’m being completely honest.

[krunk]

28 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

Some think that Nabers is actually the best WR in this draft class. I don’t think he makes it out the top 10 if I’m being completely honest.

Since this is a WR surplus my thinking is teams may play this differently than if their was a lack of prospects. I don't completely shut out the draft projections but at the end of the day I know teams have their own criteria and it can often be quite different than what the talking heads think. I'm expecting somebody to be there who we didn't think would be there. For me the only guy I'm crossing off the list of possibility is MHJ.

[lollygagger8]

16 hours ago, w87r said:

Definitely possible, they've been rumored to be a trade up possibility.

 

 

Seems hard to pass on 1 of those WRs after letting Allen and Williams go this off-season.

 

 

Side Bar:

 

 

 

If they stick to that logic: 

 

Tyler Owens

SAF

Texas Tech

12’2”

 

The broad jump record of 12 feet and three inches belongs to former Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones, who set the mark in 2015. Jones went on to be a first-round pick and it’s likely in part due to the explosive athleticism he showcased in this very drill. 

 

He almost tied the record for longest broad jump 

[w87r]

12 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

If they stick to that logic: 

 

Tyler Owens

SAF

Texas Tech

12’2”

 

The broad jump record of 12 feet and three inches belongs to former Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones, who set the mark in 2015. Jones went on to be a first-round pick and it’s likely in part due to the explosive athleticism he showcased in this very drill. 

 

He almost tied the record for longest broad jump 

Yeah, his athleticism is from another planet.

 

 

To bad he doesn't believe in it(anything outside of the Earth). That media availability at the combine, didn't help his draft stock.

[stitches]

Here are some Matt Harmon "Reception Perception" charts for the top receivers:

 

 

 

And here's the best of them... look at this one for Rome:

 

 

According to Harmon Odunze is the first receiver he's ever charted that has completely green route tree everywhere. He runs every route and he get gets open on every single route.

 

 

BTW MHJ's chart is not as impressive, but he mentions he was doubled the most out of any receiver in this draft class and his chart is still really really good. 

 

[BlackTiger]

I just cant understand taking D line over a CB this year.  WR or Bowers would make sense to me

 

If the team doesnt value corners this way then maybe they should start.  I dont like to pigeon hole what we draft this hard but our secondary is a bunch of nobodies and our Dline is ok, better than ok actually.  We dont even have many snaps for a rookie unless they are a really good edge right out of the gate. A rookie DT from this class isnt beating Buckner or Stewart.

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Here are some Matt Harmon "Reception Perception" charts for the top receivers:

 

 

 

And here's the best of them... look at this one for Rome:

 

 

According to Harmon Odunze is the first receiver he's ever charted that has completely green route tree everywhere. He runs every route and he get gets open on every single route.

 

 

BTW MHJ's chart is not as impressive, but he mentions he was doubled the most out of any receiver in this draft class and his chart is still really really good. 

 

So green is good, yellow is average and red is bad?

[DougDew]

52 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I just cant understand taking D line over a CB this year.  WR or Bowers would make sense to me

 

If the team doesnt value corners this way then maybe they should start.  I dont like to pigeon hole what we draft this hard but our secondary is a bunch of nobodies and our Dline is ok, better than ok actually.  We dont even have many snaps for a rookie unless they are a really good edge right out of the gate. A rookie DT from this class isnt beating Buckner or Stewart.

Its hard to get a high quality DE outside of the first round.  Has been my observation over the years, and corroborated by the stats posted above.  Like QB, and LT, the traits simply have to be in the player.  IMO, those are the three hardest positions to find (Raimann is an exception)

 

Like QB, when you are in a position to take one, you take one.  Unless there is no DE worth it at 15 of course.  A down year perhaps. 

[chad72]

12 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

So green is good, yellow is average and red is bad?

 

Good thing I am not a scout, I am color deficient. I can't tell my greens and purples well, some of those greens look like reds to me depending on the shade of light for me, lol  

 

Thankfully, the traffic lights are a different shade of green.  

[richard pallo]

45 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I just cant understand taking D line over a CB this year.  WR or Bowers would make sense to me

 

If the team doesnt value corners this way then maybe they should start.  I dont like to pigeon hole what we draft this hard but our secondary is a bunch of nobodies and our Dline is ok, better than ok actually.  We dont even have many snaps for a rookie unless they are a really good edge right out of the gate. A rookie DT from this class isnt beating Buckner or Stewart.

Ballard said he is not done addressing the secondary.  So it’s fair to say he will make an addition or two up to the draft.  I don’t think they have any idea what they will do with the first pick right now.  Not a clue.  They obviously like the players they have that form the core.  You can tell that by all of the players they resigned.  By the time the draft is here I will bet there will not be a glaring major hole on the team.  A hole that will definitely point to what position they will draft.  A great spot to be in for sure.

[lollygagger8]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Here are some Matt Harmon "Reception Perception" charts for the top receivers:

 

 

 

 

Sooooo...MHJ either loves or hates screens....got it lol 

[tweezy32]

36 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Ballard said he is not done addressing the secondary.  So it’s fair to say he will make an addition or two up to the draft.  I don’t think they have any idea what they will do with the first pick right now.  Not a clue.  They obviously like the players they have that form the core.  You can tell that by all of the players they resigned.  By the time the draft is here I will bet there will not be a glaring major hole on the team.  A hole that will definitely point to what position they will draft.  A great spot to be in for sure.

They definitely know what they are going to do with the pick already. They have had months to prepare for this, if who is available they pick them or if not they pick this person or if these guys are gone, they trade. They have all these scenarios played out for sure. They know exactly what they are doing already. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

So green is good, yellow is average and red is bad?

On the first one is the success-rate - green=good, yellow=average, red=below average

On the second one is the usage rate of each route. It shows what routes he ran the most with similar color designation - green=above average, yellow=average, red = below average. 

32 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Sooooo...MHJ either loves or hates screens....got it lol 

The second graph shows they didn't run a lot of screens for him, the first one shows on the few they ran he did well. 

[BlackTiger]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Like QB, when you are in a position to take one, you take one.  Unless there is no DE worth it at 15 of course.  A down year perhaps. 

I guess Im not that excited about the class for one thing, maybe Im missing something.  What I see is rookie DEs fighting for playing time if they got here, I dont see big upgrades over what we have.  I do see big upgrades elsewhere that would start, probably day 1

[VikingsFanInChennai]

13 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I guess Im not that excited about the class for one thing, maybe Im missing something.  What I see is rookie DEs fighting for playing time if they got here, I dont see big upgrades over what we have.  I do see big upgrades elsewhere that would start, probably day 1

True, but the usual assumption is first round drafted player starts and plays many snaps however, teams look for players who can grow into higher ceiling than they're currently. For example, DE Chop Robinson is said to be raw but has all the traits to develop to be a quality edge rusher one day. I'd not be surprised if Ballard drafts him for the potential. Or similar players who would've higher ceiling in future than being an instant starter right now. 

 

Another assumption people generally make is that the perceived holes need to be filled in and the team needs to be complete after the draft while Ballard may not draft for this year alone but with the aim to get the roster much better and near complete in a couple of years. 

 

The way Ballard has not yielded to the pressure of competing and paying more to bring in expensive free agents, even after acquiring rookie QB, seems to indicate that he's not looking at this year alone.

 

Ballard may just stand pat and go BPA for any position as long as they've the player ranked higher, even if fans think another player available in position of need could play as immediate starter in this team. 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, tweezy32 said:

They definitely know what they are going to do with the pick already. They have had months to prepare for this, if who is available they pick them or if not they pick this person or if these guys are gone, they trade. They have all these scenarios played out for sure. They know exactly what they are doing already. 

 

 Amusingly not so. 

  I suspect Woods is key. If he is still highly favored then Bowers is a luxury.

 And we will have great prospects available at CB, WR, and DE. And certainly those players will be evaluated to the nth degree right up near to draft day.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

I just cant understand taking D line over a CB this year.  WR or Bowers would make sense to me

 

If the team doesnt value corners this way then maybe they should start.  I dont like to pigeon hole what we draft this hard but our secondary is a bunch of nobodies and our Dline is ok, better than ok actually.  We dont even have many snaps for a rookie unless they are a really good edge right out of the gate. A rookie DT from this class isnt beating Buckner or Stewart.

To your first paragraph….  The thinking is this….   Typically (but not always) corners in the first or second rounds are for teams that play man.   You need elite physical traits. .   
 

But teams that play zone don’t need corners with elite traits and so the corners they want typically (but not always) start coming off in rounds 2-5.  Remember Ballard found Rodgers in R6 and Jones in R7 and Flowers as a free agent.  
 

Doesn't mean you won’t find a zone team picking a corner in the first, or a man team finding corners beyond the 2nd.   It can be done.   These views are not set in stone.  
 

Hope this helps.  

[BlackTiger]

25 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Ballard may just stand pat and go BPA for any position as long as they've the player ranked higher, even if fans think another player available in position of need could play as immediate starter in this team. 

Oh i agree that could happen.  Superman may have had a point about the team not valuing corners and wrs that high so DE gets pushed up.  I dont like that though lol, not this year for this team

[BlackTiger]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

To your first paragraph….  The thinking is this….   Typically (but not always) corners in the first or second rounds are for teams that play man.   You need elite physical traits. .   

Most of the league plays zones most of the time now according to pff.  I cant link it now but i think it was from 2022, they had all but 3 teams in zones more often than not.  1 team was about even(patriots) and there were two who only slightly favored man.

 

Corners are still getting drafted high and in the first round 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, tweezy32 said:

They definitely know what they are going to do with the pick already. They have had months to prepare for this, if who is available they pick them or if not they pick this person or if these guys are gone, they trade. They have all these scenarios played out for sure. They know exactly what they are doing already. 

I think broadly speaking you are right.   But Ballard has always said his board is not set until about a week or two before the draft.  
 

Plus, Ballard and his scouts and coaches go over every player in the draft three times….
 

In early Feb after the Senior Bowl. 

In early Mar after the Combine. 
In early April after Pro Days.   (That ends next week.)   So after week two is generally when they’re done.  Then the Big Board is set.  

[NewColtsFan]

8 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

Most of the league plays zones most of the time now according to pff.  I cant link it now but i think it was from 2022, they had all but 3 teams in zones more often than not.  1 team was about even(patriots) and there were two who only slightly favored man.

 

Corners are still getting drafted high and in the first round 

Interesting.   I’d say the teams drafting zone corners in the first are also playing more man coverage than other teams.   
 

I think you can get a feel for Ballard.  Traded down from 26 to 34 to take Rock.  Traded down twice from 35 to 38 to 44 to take Juju.  So, at least to date, he hasn’t  shown a willingness to use a first on a corner.   
 

But it’s possible that could change this year.   

[Superman]

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

I guess Im not that excited about the class for one thing, maybe Im missing something.  What I see is rookie DEs fighting for playing time if they got here, I dont see big upgrades over what we have.  I do see big upgrades elsewhere that would start, probably day 1

 

I don't understand this way of thinking.

 

When you draft a player in the first round, they sign a four year contract, with an option for a fifth year. If the player is as good as you hope, then the intention is likely to sign them to a second contract for another 4-5 years. So if you hope that this player is a foundational piece of your roster for the next decade, then why would you be so absorbed in the player's playing time in Year 1?

 

Specific to the Colts at DE, we do not have a game changing pass rusher right now. I like Kwity and Dayo, but so far, they aren't foundational pieces. They're both going into contract years, depending on whether the team picks up Kwity's option. And we have Ebukam, who is also good, but not a game changer. There's no reason any of these players can't be challenged for playing time, especially in pass rush situations. Dayo and Lewis play DE, but also rotate at 3T, so that can be worked out. And there are injuries, which will open up playing time.
 

DE historically has a learning curve, even for good players. Kayvon Thibodeaux was the 5th pick in 2022, he played 14 games as a rookie, 444 pass rush snaps, and had 4 sacks. He played 17 games in 2023, 498 pass rush snaps, 13 sacks. 

 

Ultimately, passing on a high level edge rush prospect because you're not sure he can start in Year 1 seems incredibly shortsighted. 

[ColtStrong2013]

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't understand this way of thinking.

 

When you draft a player in the first round, they sign a four year contract, with an option for a fifth year. If the player is as good as you hope, then the intention is likely to sign them to a second contract for another 4-5 years. So if you hope that this player is a foundational piece of your roster for the next decade, then why would you be so absorbed in the player's playing time in Year 1?

 

Specific to the Colts at DE, we do not have a game changing pass rusher right now. I like Kwity and Dayo, but so far, they aren't foundational pieces. They're both going into contract years, depending on whether the team picks up Kwity's option. And we have Ebukam, who is also good, but not a game changer. There's no reason any of these players can't be challenged for playing time, especially in pass rush situations. Dayo and Lewis play DE, but also rotate at 3T, so that can be worked out. And there are injuries, which will open up playing time.
 

DE historically has a learning curve, even for good players. Kayvon Thibodeaux was the 5th pick in 2022, he played 14 games as a rookie, 444 pass rush snaps, and had 4 sacks. He played 17 games in 2023, 498 pass rush snaps, 13 sacks. 

 

Ultimately, passing on a high level edge rush prospect because you're not sure he can start in Year 1 seems incredibly shortsighted. 

yeah this concept of not being the year to draft an edge rusher is strange. We shouldn’t be drafting for need at #15. We should be drafting for the best player that we can put on this roster, positional value factored in. I would dispute that this isn’t the year. I think it could very well be. What a better d-line to be on the depth chart on than one with uncertainty at the edge moving forward in contract years. Let a rookie stud go out occasionally and get experience/see what he’s about. We might find a true pass rusher at 15. 
 

what I would argue is it’s not the year to draft one of our “needs” at receiver or corner considering how deep these classes are. Day 2 should be just fine there. 

[stitches]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't understand this way of thinking.

 

When you draft a player in the first round, they sign a four year contract, with an option for a fifth year. If the player is as good as you hope, then the intention is likely to sign them to a second contract for another 4-5 years. So if you hope that this player is a foundational piece of your roster for the next decade, then why would you be so absorbed in the player's playing time in Year 1?

 

Specific to the Colts at DE, we do not have a game changing pass rusher right now. I like Kwity and Dayo, but so far, they aren't foundational pieces. They're both going into contract years, depending on whether the team picks up Kwity's option. And we have Ebukam, who is also good, but not a game changer. There's no reason any of these players can't be challenged for playing time, especially in pass rush situations. Dayo and Lewis play DE, but also rotate at 3T, so that can be worked out. And there are injuries, which will open up playing time.
 

DE historically has a learning curve, even for good players. Kayvon Thibodeaux was the 5th pick in 2022, he played 14 games as a rookie, 444 pass rush snaps, and had 4 sacks. He played 17 games in 2023, 498 pass rush snaps, 13 sacks. 

 

Ultimately, passing on a high level edge rush prospect because you're not sure he can start in Year 1 seems incredibly shortsighted. 

Yep. Ideally you draft a player that high for the next 10+ year and not for their rookie year. BUT lately I've been thinking about something else - part of the appeal of the rookie contract is the limited money you are giving the player compared to the production they are giving you. It's not super high on my list of things to consider but losing on the value of one year of those 4-5 rookie deal years is not negligible. In most cases it probably won't influence my decision, but if 2 players have similar value in my estimation, I would probably choose the one for whom I project faster/easier path to contributing for my team. 

[BlackTiger]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

Ultimately, passing on a high level edge rush prospect because you're not sure he can start in Year 1 seems incredibly shortsighted. 

 

The risk is that they are never much better than Kwitty Paye or the rest of the roster.  We all want a good pass rusher but we could get a day one starter thats less risky somewhere else.

 

I know positional value is a thing and to me CB and WR should be high on the list.   I can see putting DE over them but taking a risk on potential vs drafting a starter should be considered too.

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

 

The risk is that they are never much better than Kwitty Paye or the rest of the roster.  We all want a good pass rusher but we could get a day one starter thats less risky somewhere else.

 

I know positional value is a thing and to me CB and WR should be high on the list.   I can see putting DE over them but taking a risk on potential vs drafting a starter should be considered too.

 

Why would risk prevent you from drafting a good prospect? The draft is a risk in general.

 

Stitches posted something yesterday, showing that DEs drafted outside of the first round are less likely to be starters than WRs drafted outside the first round. So it seems to me that if you're concerned about the risk of not getting a starter level DE, you'd want to use a first rounder on that position.

 

Let me ask this, because I think there's a healthy disagreement among a lot of people on this topic. For our defense to work as designed, what's more important, pass rush, or coverage? They obviously rely heavily on each other, but in your opinion, which one is more valuable?

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Amusingly not so. 

  I suspect Woods is key. If he is still highly favored then Bowers is a luxury.

 And we will have great prospects available at CB, WR, and DE. And certainly those players will be evaluated to the nth degree right up near to draft day.

For most of his college career, IIRC, Woods was a blocking TE.  He became more of a pass catcher after he transferred to play his senior year, also IIRC.    I would wager that Woods could block as well as Mo, who isn't as great a blocker as billed, IMO.

 

Woods taking over for Mo, and adding Bowers as a truly elite Move TE, would give the Colts one of the best TE rooms in the NFL.  A very dangerous two TE set, and two good options for AR, whereas now its a mediocre bunch missing that star threat player.  Would save some cap too with a Mo release. 

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yep. Ideally you draft a player that high for the next 10+ year and not for their rookie year. BUT lately I've been thinking about something else - part of the appeal of the rookie contract is the limited money you are giving the player compared to the production they are giving you. It's not super high on my list of things to consider but losing on the value of one year of those 4-5 rookie deal years is not negligible. In most cases it probably won't influence my decision, but if 2 players have similar value in my estimation, I would probably choose the one for whom I project faster/easier path to contributing for my team. 

 

The bolded is an important qualifying factor. And of course, QB is a completely different discussion...

 

If you've genuinely evaluated the prospects, and you have two guys available that are pretty much equal on your board, and you default to the player who you expect can contribute the soonest, that's reasonable. I still think there's a potential adjustment for positional value, but that can vary depending on the prospects in question.

 

To me, getting the fullest value from the rookie contract is well down the list of considerations. There are too many factors that cannot be predicted -- performance, injury, etc. 

[BlackTiger]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

For our defense to work as designed, what's more important, pass rush, or coverage?

Its probably the line.  I see the corners we could get as day one starters though and the DEs we could get are at risk of never being better than Paye and company.  

 

We should be looking at WRs too.  Im not sure how far down the list they will want to go if 3-4 have been picked already.