Superman's 2024 offseason mock 1.0

[Superman]

I said I would try to get a mock out before free agency. I worked on this over the last few days here and there, and I took too long because now stuff is happening. We don't have details on the Pittman and Franklin deals yet, so I'm not sure how they affect the cap. I'm going to ignore them for now, and proceed with how I set up my mock.

 

This mock is kind of a blend between what I think the Colts should do, flavored by what I think they actually would consider doing. So no huge trades, no extreme cap manipulation, not super aggressive in free agency. I'm also doing no trades in the draft, because that's unpredictable. I used NFLDraftBuzz.com for the draft, and my cap info is taken from Spotrac and OverTheCap. I used PFF for some charting and performance also.

 

Let me know what you think. Doesn't matter if you think Player X is going to get way more in free agency, or if you think Player Y is going to go way higher in the draft... no one knows at this point. Just want to talk about how we think the roster would look and perform. My goal would be to have a division contending team in 2024, while maintaining cap flexibility for the future.

 

Colts current cap standing: $210.6m committed, adjusted cap $259.8m, 2024 cap space $49.2m, 2025 projected cap space $149.4m

Adjustments: Mo Alie-Cox released (-$5.9m), Michael Pittman extended (-$11.8m) Kwity Paye's 5th year option declined; total savings $17.7m

Updated cap standing: 2024 cap space $66.9m, 63 players under contract

 

Colts free agents: 

Michael Pittman (tagged): Four years, $90m, 2024 cap hit $10m, 2025 cap hit $15m ($20m signing bonus, backloaded)

Kenny Moore: Three years, $27m, 2024 cap hit $5.5m, 2025 cap hit $9m (need to maintain vet presence in the secondary)

Julian Blackmon: One year, $2.5m (compete for starting spot)

Gardner Minshew: One year, $4.5m (familiarity and a stable floor)

Ronnie Harrison: One year, $1.125m

Rigoberto Sanchez: Three years, $9m, 2024 cap hit $2m, 2025 cap hit $3m

Danny Pinter: One year, $1.5m (depth at interior OL)

Trey Sermon: One year, $1.055m (depth at RB)

Grover Stewart: Not retained (age, cost)

Taven Bryan: Not retained

Jacob Martin: Not retained

Tyquan Lewis: Not retained

Isaiah McKenzie: Not retained

Zach Moss: Not retained (cost, role)

Genard Avery: Not retained

Henry Black: Not retained

Tony Brown: Not retained

Cap space used: $29.18m in 2024, $27m in 2025

 

Free agency:

Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB, Titans: Three years, $20m ($6m, $6.5m) -- starting CB with all the traits the Colts love, production, scheme fit

DJ Chark, WR, Panthers: Two years, $12m ($5m, $7m) -- starting WR with explosive ability, better version of Alec Pierce

Ashtyn Davis, FS, Jets: Two years, $8m ($3.5m, $4.5m) -- potential starting FS who can also play all special teams, puts Blackmon back into competition at SS, and Rodney Thomas back to a reserve role

Josh Jones, OT, Texans: Two years, $8m ($3.25m, $4.75m) -- competition/depth across the OL, can start at either tackle spot in a pinch, also help at guard

Derrick Nnadi, NT, Chiefs: One year, $5m -- nose tackle replacement for Grover Stewart

Mykal Walker, LB, Steelers: One year, $2m -- competition at LB, athletic, rangy, physical, was very promising with Falcons and then had a lingering injury before 2023 season

Cap space used: $24.75m in 2024, $22.75m in 2025

 

Draft: 

1/15: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State: Seems like the Ballard guy to me from an athletic standpoint, still has room to add size and has potential to be refined as a pass rusher, can compete with Paye at LEO, has better upside than any pass rusher on the roster right now

2/46: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State: Another size/athlete fit, plays multiple DL positions, mostly would be a 3T in the NFL, has pass rush potential, high motor, fiery competitor

3/82: Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina: The best AJ Brown comp in this year's draft, IMO; good size, fast, strong, great catch radius, high points the ball, wins against DBs, willing and aggressive blocker, not a technical route runner but has some advanced footwork and can create separation, long speed is dangerous, can run through tackles

4/116: Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt: Size, versatility, athleticism, scheme fit, had a toe injury that cut his 2023 season short, basically another Braden Smith

5/150: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire: Productive dual threat back, special teams ability, higher RAS score than you'd initially think

6/190: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt: Not a great RAS guy, but has decent size and speed, is physical and competitive, fluid movement, played multiple DB positions, has ball production

7/234: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky: Back to RAS, good college production, can blitz, rangy, tough, potential as both a Mike and Will in either defense that Ballard appears to like

Cap space used: $9.1m 2024 (based on Spotrac projection)

 

New cap standing: 2024 remaining cap space, $3.87m; 2025 projected cap space $99.65m (not including 2024 draft picks); 76 players under contract, need 14 UDFAs

Potential 2025 free agents, cap casualties: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Kwity Paye, Dayo, Speed, Granson, Minshew, Fries; still need a long term option at NT, backup QB, etc.

 

Depth chart: (rookies in bold; veteran FAs in italics)

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Laube, Hull, Goodson, Scott, Sermon

WR: Pittman, Leggette, Montgomery

WR2: Chark, Pierce, Winfree

WR3: Downs, Dulin

TE1: Woods, Granson

TE2: Ogletree, Mallory

LT: Raimann, Goncalves, Witt

LG: Nelson, Hambright

Center: Kelly, Pinter, French

RG: Fries, Sills

RT: Smith, Jones, Freeland

 

DT: Buckner, Fiske

DT/NT: Nnandi, Adebawore, Johnson

RE: Paye, Robinson, Leo

LE: Ebukam, Dayo

LB/M: Franklin, Olubi

LB/W: Speed, Wallace

LB/S: Walker, McGrone, Stuard

CB1: Murphy-Bunting, Flowers, Devonshire

CB2: Brents, Jones, Baker

Nickel: Moore, Lammons

FS: Davis, Thomas

SS: Blackmon, Cross, Scott

 

K: Gay

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

 

Still need to fill out the roster with UDFAs and depth/competition, and the depth chart doesn't include everyone under contract. Should have sufficient cap space in 2024, and still in strong position for 2025. I'm losing some vets at DL, but I think adding some youth with upside; it hurts losing Grover, but it's what I expect in real life, and I think Nnandi is a decent replacement at less than half the expected cost. Greater pass rush potential with Robinson, and puts Paye on notice going into a contract year.

 

The offensive potential is mostly based on Anthony Richardson's potential, but I think the WR room is significantly upgraded, and would have the dynamic ability and versatility that's needed to enhance the passing game. The TE room is full of youth, and of course this is based on the assumption that Ogletree is considered fully cleared by the league and remains on the team. Added depth/competition at OL, and keeping Gardner Minshew as a safety blanket for one more year. On defense, upgraded the DBs, put Blackmon and Cross in competition at SS, added a vet corner, added LB options.

 

I'm closer on the 2024 cap than I would want to be, but the top 51 rule protects me through camp, and I think a small restructure for Nelson, or even an extension for Buckner, should be on the table as options before the season starts. Ideally, I'd want $10m in cap buffer as of Week 1, and I think that's very doable. And without the 2024 draft class (which we can estimate at around $12m), I'm still close to $100m under the cap in 2025.

 

Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. Also, check my math...

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

I said I would try to get a mock out before free agency. I worked on this over the last few days here and there, and I took too long because now stuff is happening. We don't have details on the Pittman and Franklin deals yet, so I'm not sure how they affect the cap. I'm going to ignore them for now, and proceed with how I set up my mock.

 

This mock is kind of a blend between what I think the Colts should do, flavored by what I think they actually would consider doing. So no huge trades, no extreme cap manipulation, not super aggressive in free agency. I'm also doing no trades in the draft, because that's unpredictable. I used NFLDraftBuzz.com for the draft, and my cap info is taken from Spotrac and OverTheCap. I used PFF for some charting and performance also.

 

Let me know what you think. Doesn't matter if you think Player X is going to get way more in free agency, or if you think Player Y is going to go way higher in the draft... no one knows at this point. Just want to talk about how we think the roster would look and perform. My goal would be to have a division contending team in 2024, while maintaining cap flexibility for the future.

 

Colts current cap standing: $210.6m committed, adjusted cap $259.8m, 2024 cap space $49.2m, 2025 projected cap space $149.4m

Adjustments: Mo Alie-Cox released (-$5.9m), Michael Pittman extended (-$11.8m) Kwity Paye's 5th year option declined; total savings $17.7m

Updated cap standing: 2024 cap space $66.9m, 63 players under contract

 

I kind of feel like we probably keep Kwity. I'm not sure we should, but Ballard probably has enough stake in him doing better that he probably would guarantee his 5th year. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Colts free agents: 

Michael Pittman (tagged): Four years, $90m, 2024 cap hit $10m, 2025 cap hit $15m ($20m signing bonus, backloaded)

Seems like you got the contract pretty spot on on $ per year basis...

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Kenny Moore: Three years, $27m, 2024 cap hit $5.5m, 2025 cap hit $9m (need to maintain vet presence in the secondary)

Julian Blackmon: One year, $2.5m (compete for starting spot)

I was wondering if Blackmon can't get more but... he's just had way too many injuries... maybe someone gives him like... 1/5? But you are probably right. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Gardner Minshew: One year, $4.5m (familiarity and a stable floor)

Ronnie Harrison: One year, $1.125m

Rigoberto Sanchez: Three years, $9m, 2024 cap hit $2m, 2025 cap hit $3m

Danny Pinter: One year, $1.5m (depth at interior OL)

Trey Sermon: One year, $1.055m (depth at RB)

Solid signings... 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Grover Stewart: Not retained (age, cost)

Taven Bryan: Not retained

Jacob Martin: Not retained

Tyquan Lewis: Not retained

With that many losses at DL, lets see what you do to fortify the trenches in FA and the draft... 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Isaiah McKenzie: Not retained

Zach Moss: Not retained (cost, role)

Genard Avery: Not retained

Henry Black: Not retained

Tony Brown: Not retained

Cap space used: $29.18m in 2024, $27m in 2025

 

Free agency:

Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB, Titans: Three years, $20m ($6m, $6.5m) -- starting CB with all the traits the Colts love, production, scheme fit

Good one. Good fit with the scheme and Ballard's length requirements too.. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

DJ Chark, WR, Panthers: Two years, $12m ($5m, $7m) -- starting WR with explosive ability, better version of Alec Pierce

Honestly... I'm not really sure he's better than Pierce... or rather... much better. I think we need top tier talent at WR/TE rather than depth. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Ashtyn Davis, FS, Jets: Two years, $8m ($3.5m, $4.5m) -- potential starting FS who can also play all special teams, puts Blackmon back into competition at SS, and Rodney Thomas back to a reserve role

Josh Jones, OT, Texans: Two years, $8m ($3.25m, $4.75m) -- competition/depth across the OL, can start at either tackle spot in a pinch, also help at guard

Derrick Nnadi, NT, Chiefs: One year, $5m -- nose tackle replacement for Grover Stewart

Mykal Walker, LB, Steelers: One year, $2m -- competition at LB, athletic, rangy, physical, was very promising with Falcons and then had a lingering injury before 2023 season

Cap space used: $24.75m in 2024, $22.75m in 2025

I like those... some good depth signings to round out the roster. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Draft: 

1/15: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State: Seems like the Ballard guy to me from an athletic standpoint, still has room to add size and has potential to be refined as a pass rusher, can compete with Paye at LEO, has better upside than any pass rusher on the roster right now

Yeah... he's an option. What do you think is the chance we trade back in the draft. IMO it's almost certain unless some of the top tier players falls to 15. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

2/46: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State: Another size/athlete fit, plays multiple DL positions, mostly would be a 3T in the NFL, has pass rush potential, high motor, fiery competitor

I was thinking Fiske was a candidate for us because of his testing but then I saw his length was really poor. I'm not sure Ballard would take a DT this short this high. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

3/82: Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina: The best AJ Brown comp in this year's draft, IMO; good size, fast, strong, great catch radius, high points the ball, wins against DBs, willing and aggressive blocker, not a technical route runner but has some advanced footwork and can create separation, long speed is dangerous, can run through tackles

Good shot to take on a WR that might become an X receiver. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

4/116: Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt: Size, versatility, athleticism, scheme fit, had a toe injury that cut his 2023 season short, basically another Braden Smith

5/150: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire: Productive dual threat back, special teams ability, higher RAS score than you'd initially think

6/190: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt: Not a great RAS guy, but has decent size and speed, is physical and competitive, fluid movement, played multiple DB positions, has ball production

7/234: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky: Back to RAS, good college production, can blitz, rangy, tough, potential as both a Mike and Will in either defense that Ballard appears to like

Cap space used: $9.1m 2024 (based on Spotrac projection)

 

 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

New cap standing: 2024 remaining cap space, $3.87m; 2025 projected cap space $99.65m (not including 2024 draft picks); 76 players under contract, need 14 UDFAs

Potential 2025 free agents, cap casualties: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Kwity Paye, Dayo, Speed, Granson, Minshew, Fries; still need a long term option at NT, backup QB, etc.

 

Depth chart: (rookies in bold; veteran FAs in italics)

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Laube, Hull, Goodson, Scott, Sermon

WR: Pittman, Leggette, Montgomery

WR2: Chark, Pierce, Winfree

WR3: Downs, Dulin

TE1: Woods, Granson

TE2: Ogletree, Mallory

LT: Raimann, Goncalves, Witt

LG: Nelson, Hambright

Center: Kelly, Pinter, French

RG: Fries, Sills

RT: Smith, Jones, Freeland

 

DT: Buckner, Fiske

DT/NT: Nnandi, Adebawore, Johnson

RE: Paye, Robinson, Leo

LE: Ebukam, Dayo

LB/M: Franklin, Olubi

LB/W: Speed, Wallace

LB/S: Walker, McGrone, Stuard

CB1: Murphy-Bunting, Flowers, Devonshire

CB2: Brents, Jones, Baker

Nickel: Moore, Lammons

FS: Davis, Thomas

SS: Blackmon, Cross, Scott

 

K: Gay

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

 

Still need to fill out the roster with UDFAs and depth/competition, and the depth chart doesn't include everyone under contract. Should have plenty of cap space in 2024, and still in strong position for 2025. Losing some vets at DL, but I think adding some youth with upside; it hurts losing Grover, but it's what I expect, and I think Nnandi is a decent replacement at less than half the expected cost. Greater pass rush potential with Robinson, and puts Paye on notice going into a contract year.

Yeah, you did indeed address the DL losses both in the draft and in FA. I don't think that group would be worse than what we had last year and we would be having some nice young pieces with potential to develop further... 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

The offensive potential is mostly based on Anthony Richardson's potential, bI think the WR room is significantly upgraded, and would have the dynamic ability and versatility that's needed to enhance the passing game. The TE room is full of youth, and of course this is based on the assumption that Ogletree is considered fully cleared by the league and remains on the team. Added depth/competition at OL, and keeping Gardner Minshew as a safety blanket for one more year. On defense, upgraded the DBs, put Blackmon and Cross in competition at SS, added a vet corner, added LB options.

Yep. The offense will go as far as AR takes it. I still think we need more/better weapons at WR and TE. IMO in this mock the main hope is that Leggette is A DUDE! I don't like the TE group. We have a bunch of JAGs, no needle mover... and there isn't really one in FA AFAIK so I can't blame you for not addressing it there... and in the draft - past Bowers, I'm not sure there really is one that is a dynamic weapons right away so... I guess we can wait for next year. 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

I'm closer on the 2024 cap than I want to be, but the top 51 rule protects me through camp, and I think a small restructure for Nelson, or even an extension for Buckner, should be on the table as options before the season starts. Ideally, I'd want $10m in cap buffer as of Week 1, and I think that's very doable. And without the 2024 draft class (which we can estimate at around $12m), I'm still close to $100m under the cap in 2025.

 

Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. Also, check my math...

 

Good job overall with your mock off-season. Always appreciate well thought out mock. Thanks

[MikeCurtis]

41 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. 

Nah......

 

Thanks for sharing.... I like it

 

Im a bit nervous at pick 1 because the guy did not really produce in College 

I would like him better in the 2nd round 

 

Addresses needs at WR

Addresses needs at FS (Hopefully)

Addresses needs at DE (Hopefully)

[Superman]

By the way, I ran a bunch of sims, and the first 14 picks generally went something like this:

 

1 - Caleb Williams

2 - Drake Maye

3 - Jayden Daniels 

4 - Marvin Jr

5 - Malik Nabers

6 - Joe Alt

7 - Brock Bowers

8 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu

9 - Rome Odunze

10 - Jared Verse

11 - Laiatu Latu

12 - Jer'Zhan Newton

13 - JC Latham

14 - Dallas Turner

 

So those players were generally not available at #15.

 

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Im a bit nervous at pick 1 because the guy did not really produce in College 

I would like him better in the 2nd round 

 

Yeah, low production, high potential, which I'm sure the fans here would LOVE (sarcasm). But everywhere I look I don't see him making it past the 20s.

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

By the way, I ran a bunch of sims, and the first 14 picks generally went something like this:

 

1 - Caleb Williams

2 - Drake Maye

3 - Jayden Daniels 

4 - Marvin Jr

5 - Malik Nabers

6 - Joe Alt

7 - Brock Bowers

8 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu

9 - Rome Odunze

10 - Jared Verse

11 - Laiatu Latu

12 - Jer'Zhan Newton

13 - JC Latham

14 - Dallas Turner

 

So those players were generally not available at #15.

 

Would you give up a second rounder to go up for Odunze? 

 

I still think I'd rather have Arnold than Chop Robinson... but you are probably right that Ballard wouldn't do that... 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Would you give up a second rounder to go up for Odunze? 

 

 

I don't think so. There are a lot of WRs in this draft. I'd be fine with Brian Thomas at #15.

[Superman]

Sean Murphy-Bunting signed with the Cardinals for three years, $17.4m. I predicted three years, $20m. Would have liked to have him on the Colts.

 

Edit: This is actually three years, $25.5m, with $17.5m guaranteed. Still within range.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/sean-bunting-29075/

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Honestly... I'm not really sure he's better than Pierce... or rather... much better. I think we need top tier talent at WR/TE rather than depth. 

 

I think his deep ball production pairs well with Pittman, and getting Leggette in the draft takes care of the top tier possibility. Also, Pierce becomes the depth, because I'd have Chark starting.

 

Quote

Yeah... he's an option. What do you think is the chance we trade back in the draft. IMO it's almost certain unless some of the top tier players falls to 15. 

 

Depends on the offers, the market could be soft because every other team feels the same way. If someone loves McCarthy or Penix, or really wants one of the corners, I could see a good offer. But I wouldn't want to move down more than a handful of picks.

 

Potential targets still available: DeJean (I avoided him because there's no testing), Latham, Fuaga, Mitchell, Murphy, Mims, Thomas, Arnold, Kool-Aid, Fautanu, Powers-Johnson, Wiggins. I'm also assuming any corners that don't meet the length requirements aren't on the table for the Colts in the first round. So this kind of favors the OL, Murphy, and Thomas. 

 

If the Steelers want to move up from #20 for McCarthy, let's talk. That's about as far as I'd want to move down though.

[Superman]

Quote

I was thinking Fiske was a candidate for us because of his testing but then I saw his length was really poor. I'm not sure Ballard would take a DT this short this high. 

 

Sure, but in the middle of the second, I think the other testing could make up for the arm length. They took Braden Smith at the top of the second, but they probably projected him as a guard, not a tackle...

 

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

By the way, I ran a bunch of sims, and the first 14 picks generally went something like this:

 

1 - Caleb Williams

2 - Drake Maye

3 - Jayden Daniels 

4 - Marvin Jr

5 - Malik Nabers

6 - Joe Alt

7 - Brock Bowers

8 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu

9 - Rome Odunze

10 - Jared Verse

11 - Laiatu Latu

12 - Jer'Zhan Newton

13 - JC Latham

14 - Dallas Turner

 

So those players were generally not available at #15.

 

Would you take Byton Murphy at 15? 
 

I’m really high on him and would probably take him over Newton. 

[Solid84]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

I said I would try to get a mock out before free agency. I worked on this over the last few days here and there, and I took too long because now stuff is happening. We don't have details on the Pittman and Franklin deals yet, so I'm not sure how they affect the cap. I'm going to ignore them for now, and proceed with how I set up my mock.

 

This mock is kind of a blend between what I think the Colts should do, flavored by what I think they actually would consider doing. So no huge trades, no extreme cap manipulation, not super aggressive in free agency. I'm also doing no trades in the draft, because that's unpredictable. I used NFLDraftBuzz.com for the draft, and my cap info is taken from Spotrac and OverTheCap. I used PFF for some charting and performance also.

 

Let me know what you think. Doesn't matter if you think Player X is going to get way more in free agency, or if you think Player Y is going to go way higher in the draft... no one knows at this point. Just want to talk about how we think the roster would look and perform. My goal would be to have a division contending team in 2024, while maintaining cap flexibility for the future.

 

Colts current cap standing: $210.6m committed, adjusted cap $259.8m, 2024 cap space $49.2m, 2025 projected cap space $149.4m

Adjustments: Mo Alie-Cox released (-$5.9m), Michael Pittman extended (-$11.8m) Kwity Paye's 5th year option declined; total savings $17.7m

Updated cap standing: 2024 cap space $66.9m, 63 players under contract

 

Colts free agents: 

Michael Pittman (tagged): Four years, $90m, 2024 cap hit $10m, 2025 cap hit $15m ($20m signing bonus, backloaded)

Kenny Moore: Three years, $27m, 2024 cap hit $5.5m, 2025 cap hit $9m (need to maintain vet presence in the secondary)

Julian Blackmon: One year, $2.5m (compete for starting spot)

Gardner Minshew: One year, $4.5m (familiarity and a stable floor)

Ronnie Harrison: One year, $1.125m

Rigoberto Sanchez: Three years, $9m, 2024 cap hit $2m, 2025 cap hit $3m

Danny Pinter: One year, $1.5m (depth at interior OL)

Trey Sermon: One year, $1.055m (depth at RB)

Grover Stewart: Not retained (age, cost)

Taven Bryan: Not retained

Jacob Martin: Not retained

Tyquan Lewis: Not retained

Isaiah McKenzie: Not retained

Zach Moss: Not retained (cost, role)

Genard Avery: Not retained

Henry Black: Not retained

Tony Brown: Not retained

Cap space used: $29.18m in 2024, $27m in 2025

 

Free agency:

Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB, Titans: Three years, $20m ($6m, $6.5m) -- starting CB with all the traits the Colts love, production, scheme fit

DJ Chark, WR, Panthers: Two years, $12m ($5m, $7m) -- starting WR with explosive ability, better version of Alec Pierce

Ashtyn Davis, FS, Jets: Two years, $8m ($3.5m, $4.5m) -- potential starting FS who can also play all special teams, puts Blackmon back into competition at SS, and Rodney Thomas back to a reserve role

Josh Jones, OT, Texans: Two years, $8m ($3.25m, $4.75m) -- competition/depth across the OL, can start at either tackle spot in a pinch, also help at guard

Derrick Nnadi, NT, Chiefs: One year, $5m -- nose tackle replacement for Grover Stewart

Mykal Walker, LB, Steelers: One year, $2m -- competition at LB, athletic, rangy, physical, was very promising with Falcons and then had a lingering injury before 2023 season

Cap space used: $24.75m in 2024, $22.75m in 2025

 

Draft: 

1/15: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State: Seems like the Ballard guy to me from an athletic standpoint, still has room to add size and has potential to be refined as a pass rusher, can compete with Paye at LEO, has better upside than any pass rusher on the roster right now

2/46: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State: Another size/athlete fit, plays multiple DL positions, mostly would be a 3T in the NFL, has pass rush potential, high motor, fiery competitor

3/82: Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina: The best AJ Brown comp in this year's draft, IMO; good size, fast, strong, great catch radius, high points the ball, wins against DBs, willing and aggressive blocker, not a technical route runner but has some advanced footwork and can create separation, long speed is dangerous, can run through tackles

4/116: Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt: Size, versatility, athleticism, scheme fit, had a toe injury that cut his 2023 season short, basically another Braden Smith

5/150: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire: Productive dual threat back, special teams ability, higher RAS score than you'd initially think

6/190: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt: Not a great RAS guy, but has decent size and speed, is physical and competitive, fluid movement, played multiple DB positions, has ball production

7/234: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky: Back to RAS, good college production, can blitz, rangy, tough, potential as both a Mike and Will in either defense that Ballard appears to like

Cap space used: $9.1m 2024 (based on Spotrac projection)

 

New cap standing: 2024 remaining cap space, $3.87m; 2025 projected cap space $99.65m (not including 2024 draft picks); 76 players under contract, need 14 UDFAs

Potential 2025 free agents, cap casualties: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Kwity Paye, Dayo, Speed, Granson, Minshew, Fries; still need a long term option at NT, backup QB, etc.

 

Depth chart: (rookies in bold; veteran FAs in italics)

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Laube, Hull, Goodson, Scott, Sermon

WR: Pittman, Leggette, Montgomery

WR2: Chark, Pierce, Winfree

WR3: Downs, Dulin

TE1: Woods, Granson

TE2: Ogletree, Mallory

LT: Raimann, Goncalves, Witt

LG: Nelson, Hambright

Center: Kelly, Pinter, French

RG: Fries, Sills

RT: Smith, Jones, Freeland

 

DT: Buckner, Fiske

DT/NT: Nnandi, Adebawore, Johnson

RE: Paye, Robinson, Leo

LE: Ebukam, Dayo

LB/M: Franklin, Olubi

LB/W: Speed, Wallace

LB/S: Walker, McGrone, Stuard

CB1: Murphy-Bunting, Flowers, Devonshire

CB2: Brents, Jones, Baker

Nickel: Moore, Lammons

FS: Davis, Thomas

SS: Blackmon, Cross, Scott

 

K: Gay

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

 

Still need to fill out the roster with UDFAs and depth/competition, and the depth chart doesn't include everyone under contract. Should have sufficient cap space in 2024, and still in strong position for 2025. I'm losing some vets at DL, but I think adding some youth with upside; it hurts losing Grover, but it's what I expect in real life, and I think Nnandi is a decent replacement at less than half the expected cost. Greater pass rush potential with Robinson, and puts Paye on notice going into a contract year.

 

The offensive potential is mostly based on Anthony Richardson's potential, but I think the WR room is significantly upgraded, and would have the dynamic ability and versatility that's needed to enhance the passing game. The TE room is full of youth, and of course this is based on the assumption that Ogletree is considered fully cleared by the league and remains on the team. Added depth/competition at OL, and keeping Gardner Minshew as a safety blanket for one more year. On defense, upgraded the DBs, put Blackmon and Cross in competition at SS, added a vet corner, added LB options.

 

I'm closer on the 2024 cap than I would want to be, but the top 51 rule protects me through camp, and I think a small restructure for Nelson, or even an extension for Buckner, should be on the table as options before the season starts. Ideally, I'd want $10m in cap buffer as of Week 1, and I think that's very doable. And without the 2024 draft class (which we can estimate at around $12m), I'm still close to $100m under the cap in 2025.

 

Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. Also, check my math...

I like it!

 

I’m not really sold on Legette and there are a lot of other WRs I’d take over him this draft, but other than that I’d take it!

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I like it!

 

I’m not really sold on Legette and there are a lot of other WRs I’d take over him this draft, but other than that I’d take it!

 

Sure, but how many would still be there at #82? In the sims I've been running, the higher tier guys are all gone by the 30s, then guys like Pearsall and Walker are gone by the 60s. 

 

4 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Would you take Byton Murphy at 15? 

 

Probably. 

[Solid84]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Sure, but how many would still be there at #82? In the sims I've been running, the higher tier guys are all gone by the 30s, then guys like Pearsall and Walker are gone by the 60s. 

 

 

Probably. 

I get that, but I’d probably look to go DT/WR at 15, WR/DT at 46 and DE at 82. 
 

I’m totally behind putting Paye on notice, but I think Ballard gives it one more year (with their new DL coach) before he invests a high pick in DE. 

[Superman]

Just now, Solid84 said:

I get that, but I’d probably look to go DT/WR at 15, WR/DT at 46 and DE at 82. 
 

I’m totally behind putting Paye on notice, but I think Ballard gives it one more year (with their new DL coach) before he invests a high pick in DE. 

 

That's not how I look at the draft. I wasn't targeting positions in certain rounds, just looking at who I think fits the profile, and who I think are good prospects.

 

I definitely don't agree with giving players more time, specifically at DE. It's a position that generally takes a year or two for players to get going, it's prone to injury, and you need waves of pass rushers. I'd want as many as possible, and if Paye has a great year, then re-sign him and keep building up the pass rush.

[Defjamz26]

My only major issue is with the Robinson pick. I feel like that’s Kwity Paye all over again. And while it’s easy to say Robinson is more athletic because his testing was crazier, I don’t think it’s a significant gap because they had the same 10 yard split (1.54) in yhe 40 yard dash. To me he’s a Build-A-Ballard edge rusher in the numbers, but he’s green with not great college production. 
 

And that’s not me saying Paye was a mistake. He’s developed into a solid 8 sack a year edge rusher and has done more in the league than Bruce Huff has who just got paid. I’m just saying if you’re trying to find that guy, you need someone with a different profile. To me, if Ballard was dead set on taking an edge at 15, I’d rather it be Verse or Latu. Power and advanced hand usage isn’t something our current groups of edge players have.

[Superman]

23 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

My only major issue is with the Robinson pick. I feel like that’s Kwity Paye all over again. And while it’s easy to say Robinson is more athletic because his testing was crazier, I don’t think it’s a significant gap because they had the same 10 yard split (1.54) in yhe 40 yard dash. To me he’s a Build-A-Ballard edge rusher in the numbers, but he’s green with not great college production. 
 

And that’s not me saying Paye was a mistake. He’s developed into a solid 8 sack a year edge rusher and has done more in the league than Bruce Huff has who just got paid. I’m just saying if you’re trying to find that guy, you need someone with a different profile. To me, if Ballard was dead set on taking an edge at 15, I’d rather it be Verse or Latu. Power and advanced hand usage isn’t something our current groups of edge players have.

 

I understand the feeling about the Build-A-Ballard edge. I think Robinson is a better prospect than Paye ever was, he looks more explosive, he bends better, and he has a better pass rush package. He's significantly better in space. Also, I show Paye's 10 yard split at 1.66; Robinson's was 1.54.

 

The sticking point is that he doesn't have great college production. But that doesn't make him the same as Paye. Their tape looks very different, IMO. Calling Robinson a projection is fair. But we should also acknowledge that plenty of pass rushers who were productive in college have little to no success in the NFL, especially if they don't have the traits. I don't agree with just lumping guys in together because they might share some common traits.

 

I don't really like Verse, and have serious concerns about Latu. But based on the sims I ran, they were consistently gone before #15, so I wouldn't have included them in this mock even if I did like them.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

He's significantly better in space. Also, I show Paye's 10 yard split at 1.66; Robinson's was 1.54

Wikipedia has Paye with a 4.52 40 and 1.52 10 yard split at Michigan’s pro day

 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

The sticking point is that he doesn't have great college production. But that doesn't make him the same as Paye. Their tape looks very different, IMO. Calling Robinson a projection is fair. But we should also acknowledge that plenty of pass rushers who were productive in college have little to no success in the NFL, especially if they don't have the traits. I don't agree with just lumping guys in together because they might share some common traits.

I also saw on tape that Chop was winning with mostly 1st step quickness and athleticism. That’s essentially how Paye was in college. I just think people see Chop and his build and can’t help but think Micah Parsons. He’s such a projection pick, and you’re banking on him being a 10+ sack a year before his rookie contract is up, which is a tall ask considering how far he needs to go.

[Superman]

24 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Wikipedia has Paye with a 4.52 40 and 1.52 10 yard split at Michigan’s pro day

 

The sites all say 1.66. But I just realized that 2021 was the year there was no centralized combine, so all the numbers need to be viewed with some skepticism. By the way, I'm not down on Paye. I think he still has some upside, but I would have liked to see more development from him by now. 

 

25 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

saw on tape that Chop was winning with mostly 1st step quickness and athleticism. That’s essentially how Paye was in college. I just think people see Chop and his build and can’t help but think Micah Parsons. He’s such a projection pick, and you’re banking on him being a 10+ sack a year before his rookie contract is up, which is a tall ask considering how far he needs to go.

 

I'm definitely not seeing Micah Parsons. I'm just not lumping him in with every low production edge prospect because I think he has the traits. But you're right, he has a long way to go. 

[ColtJax]

We're just going all in with last year's team. I would hope we AT LEAST address the OL, it's going to get Richardson killed. Juedy could have been had for a 5th rounder..

[Superman]

24 minutes ago, ColtJax said:

We're just going all in with last year's team. I would hope we AT LEAST address the OL, it's going to get Richardson killed. Juedy could have been had for a 5th rounder..

 

Jeudy is meh. He's just a name everyone likes. who is making $13m but has mediocre production. I want to improve the WR but he wouldn't have been my target.

[IndyColtsFan411]

As always, @Superman,  I appreciate your efforts and the time it took for you to put this together each time you do.  I like some of your FA pickups, and agree with retaining some of our own FAs.  However, I don't really like your draft.  Your picks, themselves, are not bad picks, I just do not like them.  I hope Leggette turns into a weapon Colts hoped Pierce was supposed to be.  Chop, not a fan, he could be good, but didn't like what I saw of him this year.  Not sure about Fiske either.  This draft could be good, and I'd be happy to eat crow.  Keep up the good work!

[Superman]

32 minutes ago, IndyColtsFan411 said:

As always, @Superman,  I appreciate your efforts and the time it took for you to put this together each time you do.  I like some of your FA pickups, and agree with retaining some of our own FAs.  However, I don't really like your draft.  Your picks, themselves, are not bad picks, I just do not like them.  I hope Leggette turns into a weapon Colts hoped Pierce was supposed to be.  Chop, not a fan, he could be good, but didn't like what I saw of him this year.  Not sure about Fiske either.  This draft could be good, and I'd be happy to eat crow.  Keep up the good work!

 

Totally fair. I'm not absolutely in love with anyone in this mock draft, and I'm still getting familiar with a lot of players. I just really wanted to take a swing at a mock before free agency. On Chop Robinson, I'm still on the fence about him.

 

But I'll say this about Leggette. I like him better than a lot of the WRs that people are mocking ahead of him. AD Mitchell, Worthy, Polk, Coleman... I'd rather have Leggette. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in the 2nd round.

[krunk]

On 3/11/2024 at 12:40 PM, Superman said:

I said I would try to get a mock out before free agency. I worked on this over the last few days here and there, and I took too long because now stuff is happening. We don't have details on the Pittman and Franklin deals yet, so I'm not sure how they affect the cap. I'm going to ignore them for now, and proceed with how I set up my mock.

 

This mock is kind of a blend between what I think the Colts should do, flavored by what I think they actually would consider doing. So no huge trades, no extreme cap manipulation, not super aggressive in free agency. I'm also doing no trades in the draft, because that's unpredictable. I used NFLDraftBuzz.com for the draft, and my cap info is taken from Spotrac and OverTheCap. I used PFF for some charting and performance also.

 

Let me know what you think. Doesn't matter if you think Player X is going to get way more in free agency, or if you think Player Y is going to go way higher in the draft... no one knows at this point. Just want to talk about how we think the roster would look and perform. My goal would be to have a division contending team in 2024, while maintaining cap flexibility for the future.

 

Colts current cap standing: $210.6m committed, adjusted cap $259.8m, 2024 cap space $49.2m, 2025 projected cap space $149.4m

Adjustments: Mo Alie-Cox released (-$5.9m), Michael Pittman extended (-$11.8m) Kwity Paye's 5th year option declined; total savings $17.7m

Updated cap standing: 2024 cap space $66.9m, 63 players under contract

 

Colts free agents: 

Michael Pittman (tagged): Four years, $90m, 2024 cap hit $10m, 2025 cap hit $15m ($20m signing bonus, backloaded)

Kenny Moore: Three years, $27m, 2024 cap hit $5.5m, 2025 cap hit $9m (need to maintain vet presence in the secondary)

Julian Blackmon: One year, $2.5m (compete for starting spot)

Gardner Minshew: One year, $4.5m (familiarity and a stable floor)

Ronnie Harrison: One year, $1.125m

Rigoberto Sanchez: Three years, $9m, 2024 cap hit $2m, 2025 cap hit $3m

Danny Pinter: One year, $1.5m (depth at interior OL)

Trey Sermon: One year, $1.055m (depth at RB)

Grover Stewart: Not retained (age, cost)

Taven Bryan: Not retained

Jacob Martin: Not retained

Tyquan Lewis: Not retained

Isaiah McKenzie: Not retained

Zach Moss: Not retained (cost, role)

Genard Avery: Not retained

Henry Black: Not retained

Tony Brown: Not retained

Cap space used: $29.18m in 2024, $27m in 2025

 

Free agency:

Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB, Titans: Three years, $20m ($6m, $6.5m) -- starting CB with all the traits the Colts love, production, scheme fit

DJ Chark, WR, Panthers: Two years, $12m ($5m, $7m) -- starting WR with explosive ability, better version of Alec Pierce

Ashtyn Davis, FS, Jets: Two years, $8m ($3.5m, $4.5m) -- potential starting FS who can also play all special teams, puts Blackmon back into competition at SS, and Rodney Thomas back to a reserve role

Josh Jones, OT, Texans: Two years, $8m ($3.25m, $4.75m) -- competition/depth across the OL, can start at either tackle spot in a pinch, also help at guard

Derrick Nnadi, NT, Chiefs: One year, $5m -- nose tackle replacement for Grover Stewart

Mykal Walker, LB, Steelers: One year, $2m -- competition at LB, athletic, rangy, physical, was very promising with Falcons and then had a lingering injury before 2023 season

Cap space used: $24.75m in 2024, $22.75m in 2025

 

Draft: 

1/15: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State: Seems like the Ballard guy to me from an athletic standpoint, still has room to add size and has potential to be refined as a pass rusher, can compete with Paye at LEO, has better upside than any pass rusher on the roster right now

2/46: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State: Another size/athlete fit, plays multiple DL positions, mostly would be a 3T in the NFL, has pass rush potential, high motor, fiery competitor

3/82: Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina: The best AJ Brown comp in this year's draft, IMO; good size, fast, strong, great catch radius, high points the ball, wins against DBs, willing and aggressive blocker, not a technical route runner but has some advanced footwork and can create separation, long speed is dangerous, can run through tackles

4/116: Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt: Size, versatility, athleticism, scheme fit, had a toe injury that cut his 2023 season short, basically another Braden Smith

5/150: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire: Productive dual threat back, special teams ability, higher RAS score than you'd initially think

6/190: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt: Not a great RAS guy, but has decent size and speed, is physical and competitive, fluid movement, played multiple DB positions, has ball production

7/234: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky: Back to RAS, good college production, can blitz, rangy, tough, potential as both a Mike and Will in either defense that Ballard appears to like

Cap space used: $9.1m 2024 (based on Spotrac projection)

 

New cap standing: 2024 remaining cap space, $3.87m; 2025 projected cap space $99.65m (not including 2024 draft picks); 76 players under contract, need 14 UDFAs

Potential 2025 free agents, cap casualties: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Kwity Paye, Dayo, Speed, Granson, Minshew, Fries; still need a long term option at NT, backup QB, etc.

 

Depth chart: (rookies in bold; veteran FAs in italics)

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Laube, Hull, Goodson, Scott, Sermon

WR: Pittman, Leggette, Montgomery

WR2: Chark, Pierce, Winfree

WR3: Downs, Dulin

TE1: Woods, Granson

TE2: Ogletree, Mallory

LT: Raimann, Goncalves, Witt

LG: Nelson, Hambright

Center: Kelly, Pinter, French

RG: Fries, Sills

RT: Smith, Jones, Freeland

 

DT: Buckner, Fiske

DT/NT: Nnandi, Adebawore, Johnson

RE: Paye, Robinson, Leo

LE: Ebukam, Dayo

LB/M: Franklin, Olubi

LB/W: Speed, Wallace

LB/S: Walker, McGrone, Stuard

CB1: Murphy-Bunting, Flowers, Devonshire

CB2: Brents, Jones, Baker

Nickel: Moore, Lammons

FS: Davis, Thomas

SS: Blackmon, Cross, Scott

 

K: Gay

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

 

Still need to fill out the roster with UDFAs and depth/competition, and the depth chart doesn't include everyone under contract. Should have sufficient cap space in 2024, and still in strong position for 2025. I'm losing some vets at DL, but I think adding some youth with upside; it hurts losing Grover, but it's what I expect in real life, and I think Nnandi is a decent replacement at less than half the expected cost. Greater pass rush potential with Robinson, and puts Paye on notice going into a contract year.

 

The offensive potential is mostly based on Anthony Richardson's potential, but I think the WR room is significantly upgraded, and would have the dynamic ability and versatility that's needed to enhance the passing game. The TE room is full of youth, and of course this is based on the assumption that Ogletree is considered fully cleared by the league and remains on the team. Added depth/competition at OL, and keeping Gardner Minshew as a safety blanket for one more year. On defense, upgraded the DBs, put Blackmon and Cross in competition at SS, added a vet corner, added LB options.

 

I'm closer on the 2024 cap than I would want to be, but the top 51 rule protects me through camp, and I think a small restructure for Nelson, or even an extension for Buckner, should be on the table as options before the season starts. Ideally, I'd want $10m in cap buffer as of Week 1, and I think that's very doable. And without the 2024 draft class (which we can estimate at around $12m), I'm still close to $100m under the cap in 2025.

 

Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. Also, check my math...

I'm glad you got my boy Zay Legette on the list! I like that one for us just by itself. Steve Smith called him a better DK Metcalf.

[Dark Superman]

Chop Robinson at 15 is crazy.

[krunk]

On 3/11/2024 at 2:08 PM, Superman said:

 

Yeah, low production, high potential, which I'm sure the fans here would LOVE (sarcasm). But everywhere I look I don't see him making it past the 20s.

I think Lagette is going to go in RD 2 and probably before we pick.

[Superman]

28 minutes ago, krunk said:

I think Lagette is going to go in RD 2 and probably before we pick.

 

Some places have him at #29, others have him at #79. I definitely feel like his stock is higher now than it was a month ago when I did this mock. Right now, the same simulator has him going early in the second round.

[krunk]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Some places have him at #29, others have him at #79. I definitely feel like his stock is higher now than it was a month ago when I did this mock. Right now, the same simulator has him going early in the second round.

Depends on what teams think about the previous years when the production was low. Everything else about him checks out as far as talent, speed, work ethic, and character. I think if they are okay with how the previous years came to be such as the 1 year he missed bc of injury for example then somebody will take him in Rd 2.