Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)

[w87r]

JK Dobbins has been cleared medically.

 

 

He could be intriguing RB to add to the stable.

[richard pallo]

3 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Ballard said today they have started talking to Blackmon again. It’s moving in a positive direction. Holder thinks they will sign a FS too. He said he doesn’t think colts liked the FA market at CB.

I would love to see a deal come together soon for Blackmon with some incentives attached with one being for each interception achieved.

[Yoshinator]

Rams are signing Tredavious White if it hasn't been posted already.

 

Another big CB gone we could have gotten.  

[1959Colts]

Looks like we wont be signing White either

 

[Superman]

5 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

Well I knew it would be big but good grief that’s a lot of money for a close to 30 cb. 

 

I thought it would be more. My projection was four years, $84m. I think his market is pretty clear, and it's a big part of why I never expected the Colts to make the move in the first place.

 

4 hours ago, coach kline said:

I'm so over trading down. It hasn't really got us anywhere except mediocrity. 

 

I mean, do you like AD Mitchell? If the Colts traded down and came away with him later in the first, what's the problem?

[Superman]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

Glad you mentioned this. I've been wanting to really look and see how many roster spots are locked in(pending injuries) and how many actual top 53 spots are available for draft picks and remaining FA signings.

 

Locks 

 

2024 Roster:(under contract)(75)

Offense:(37)

QB:(3) Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger

RB:(5) Johnathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson, Zavier Scott

WR:(9) Michael Pittman, Alex Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Juwann Winfree, Tyrie Cleveland, Ethan Fernea, Terrell Bynum

TE:(7) Mo Alie-Cox, Andrew Ogletree, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, Jordan Murray, Eric Tomlinson

OT:(4) Bernard Raimann, Braden Smith, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt

OG:(5) Quentin Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd

OC:(4) Ryan Kelly, Danny Pinter, Wesley French, Jack Anderson 

 

Defense:(35)

DE:(7) Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Tyquan Lewis, Titus Leo, Isaiah Land, Genard Avery 

DT:(6) Deforest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Raekwon Davis, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson

LB:(8) EJ Speed, Zaire Franklin, Ronnie Harrison, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Segun Olubi, Liam Anderson, Austin Ajiake

CB:(7) Dallis Flowers, JuJu Brents, Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, Ameer Speed, Chris Lammons, Darrell Baker Jr

S:(7) Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Marcel Dabo, Kendell Brooks, Michael Tutsie

 

SPT:(3)

K: Matt Gay

P: Rigoberto Sanchez 

LS: Luke Rhodes 

 

 

 

 

So I have (42) locks there.

 

Leaves 11 spots for draft picks/remaining FAs and for the other 33 players currently on the roster.

 

Maybe not that confident with Stuard lock.

 

 

What does everyone's locks look like?

 

I don't have a lot of disagreement with this, maybe a player here or there. But yeah, the idea that we have 40-ish players who should be on the final roster makes sense. I might not call them all "locks," but that's semantics.

 

And there are probably 3-4 that we think will make up but wind up on the chopping block, plus another 3-4 who wind up in IR or PUP. So there are some roster spots available.

[Yoshinator]

14 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Looks like we wont be signing White either

 

Edit. NM

[richard pallo]

11 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Looks like we wont be signing White either

 

I’m thinking Blackmon and Diggs are the targets now.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, richard pallo said:

I’m thinking Blackmon and Diggs are the targets now.

They are probably the guys we'd be linked too if anyone yeah.

[Nate!]

37 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I thought it would be more. My projection was four years, $84m. I think his market is pretty clear, and it's a big part of why I never expected the Colts to make the move in the first place.

 

 

I mean, do you like AD Mitchell? If the Colts traded down and came away with him later in the first, what's the problem?

Pretty sure Mitchell’s advanced metrics have multiple red flags.  I would pass on him I think.  Dude looks like an athletic freak though so can see the appeal

[Happy2BeHere]

We have Ballard…as if people continue to believe this guy will make a huge splash in free agency signings. Hell freezes over before this happens.

[John Hammonds]

Eventually, every thread will be merged with the "Ballard grievance thread".  Because it's the gift that keeps on giving.

[Hoose]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

mean, do you like AD Mitchell? If the Colts traded down and came away with him later in the first, what's the problem

Mitchell has gotten more interesting the more I’ve studied him. He could be special. I’ve been on the Thomas,Jr. bandwagon but if the Colts could nab an extra 2 for a slight move down and get Mitchell? Count me in. 

[w87r]

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

[RollerColt]

6 minutes ago, w87r said:

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

And again, he’s home. And in warmer weather year round… and close to beaches… 

[Shive]

7 minutes ago, w87r said:

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

Plus he's from Katy, TX, which is just outside of Houston, so he's also moving back home.

[Shive]

1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

And again, he’s home. And in warmer weather year round… and close to beaches… 

[RollerColt]

1 minute ago, Shive said:

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

And again, he’s home. And in warmer weather year round… and close to beaches… 

 

7 minutes ago, Shive said:

Plus he's from Katy, TX, which is just outside of Houston, so he's also moving back home.

Well aware.

 

 

This was strictly talking about money.

[GoColts8818]

59 minutes ago, w87r said:

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

It was reported when he signed there he wanted to go home to Houston which is where he’s from.

[w87r]

15 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

It was reported when he signed there he wanted to go home to Houston which is where he’s from.

Yes, I think just about everyone is aware of that.

 

This was strictly to post that the Colts seemed to have a bigger offer, which if close wouldn't even of been a bigger offer, because the state tax thing.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Nate! said:

Pretty sure Mitchell’s advanced metrics have multiple red flags.  I would pass on him I think.  Dude looks like an athletic freak though so can see the appeal

 

What metrics are those? Honest question because I'm curious, not trying to make a point. The 1.8% catch rate looks good... 

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, Hoose said:

Mitchell has gotten more interesting the more I’ve studied him. He could be special. I’ve been on the Thomas,Jr. bandwagon but if the Colts could nab an extra 2 for a slight move down and get Mitchell? Count me in. 

AD Mitchell is such a good route running and crafty WR. Would love him in the mid 20s by trading down and hopefully acquiring multiple extra high picks. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

 

"More money" could mean three years, $60m. I honestly doubt Ballard was offering better than $25m/year. 

[w87r]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

"More money" could mean three years, $60m. I honestly doubt Ballard was offering better than $25m/year. 

That's not how I perceived this.

 

From the moment it was announced he took less money to go back to Houston. It seemed to lead to him taking less AAV.

 

$25m was probably the number, doubt he went any higher than that myself.

 

11/17 games with no state tax for the Texans.

 

2yr $49m vs 3yr $60m isn't close at all, and definitely shouldn't be perceived as more money.

 

$48m/$49m was guaranteed, he would of been signing up for a 3rd year at $11m if it was 3yr $60m.

 

I don't think that you think that was the case either.

 

[OhioColt]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

 

Well aware.

 

 

This was strictly talking about money.

@RollerColt

 

Touched based on this previously but it's not always about the money.  Hunter grew up in Texas and is a Texan's fan.  Which probably makes the Colts a hated divisional rival.  No money would convince a player to play for the "enemy" if given a chance to play for the home team scenario.  Take the discount, even better if no state taxes, probably end up as a wash in the end.  Someone in the Colts organization probably knew it was a long-shot odds to acquire Hunter but why not try at least. 

[RollerColt]

12 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

@RollerColt

 

Touched based on this previously but it's not always about the money.  Hunter grew up in Texas and is a Texan's fan.  Which probably makes the Colts a hated divisional rival.  No money would convince a player to play for the "enemy" if given a chance to play for the home team scenario.  Take the discount, even better if no state taxes, probably end up as a wash in the end.  Someone in the Colts organization probably knew it was a long-shot odds to acquire Hunter but why not try at least. 

Gives Coach some bulletin board material I guess for the future: this guy rejected us, let’s make him regret it type of stuff. Maybe maybe not…

[VikingsFanInChennai]

2 hours ago, w87r said:

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/26/colts-free-agency-danielle-hunter-texans-offered-more-money/

 

 

"Though Ballard didn’t admit it, ESPN’s Stephen Holder reported the Colts offered more money to defensive end Danielle Hunter before he signed a two-year, $49 million (with $48 million guaranteed) with the Houston Texans."

 

 

If money was close I'm sure he makes more in Houston than he would've with Colts with No state tax in Texas.

It's pretty misleading, apart from being a rumor. 

 

Truth probably is that Colts could've offered more money but not that much guaranteed money. Houston probably gave Hunter more guaranteed money than Colts. 

 

So both Ballard and Holder are right, and their truth is in the interpretation of which money you count. 

 

I'm surprised none had pointed this out, after everybody saying that they all know Ballard very well. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

That's not how I perceived this.

 

From the moment it was announced he took less money to go back to Houston. It seemed to lead to him taking less AAV.

 

$25m was probably the number, doubt he went any higher than that myself.

 

11/17 games with no state tax for the Texans.

 

2yr $49m vs 3yr $60m isn't close at all, and definitely shouldn't be perceived as more money.

 

$48m/$49m was guaranteed, he would of been signing up for a 3rd year at $11m if it was 3yr $60m.

 

I don't think that you think that was the case either.

 

 

It was a hypothetical. My point was that “more money” needs context.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

"More money" could mean three years, $60m. I honestly doubt Ballard was offering better than $25m/year. 

Yeah, suddenly everyone here believes Ballard gave more money? While there's no such precedence recently other than for Matt Gay.

 

And, just because Hunter is from Houston, everyone forms their own narrative?

 

Having seen up close on Hunter for years, he's an ultimate team player, he'd have done the same, whether Colts or Texans acquired him. He'd not have seen Colts as hated division rival until he joined Texans. 

[rock8591]

20 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Yeah, suddenly everyone here believes Ballard gave more money? While there's no such precedence recently other than for Matt Gay.

 

And, just because Hunter is from Houston, everyone forms their own narrative?

 

Having seen up close on Hunter for years, he's an ultimate team player, he'd have done the same, whether Colts or Texans acquired him. He'd not have seen Colts as hated division rival until he joined Texans. 

 

Free agents don't want to come to Indianapolis.

 

That's a fact.

 

We've seen it multiple times in the Colts and Pacers history.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

6 hours ago, w87r said:

JK Dobbins has been cleared medically.

 

 

He could be intriguing RB to add to the stable.

He's healthy every off-season 

32 minutes ago, rock8591 said:

 

Free agents don't want to come to Indianapolis.

 

That's a fact.

 

We've seen it multiple times in the Colts and Pacers history.

Maybe, because Indy football GMs recently have never been fans of acquiring FAs? 

[OLD FAN MAN]

2 hours ago, OhioColt said:

@RollerColt

 

Touched based on this previously but it's not always about the money.  Hunter grew up in Texas and is a Texan's fan.  Which probably makes the Colts a hated divisional rival.  No money would convince a player to play for the "enemy" if given a chance to play for the home team scenario.  Take the discount, even better if no state taxes, probably end up as a wash in the end.  Someone in the Colts organization probably knew it was a long-shot odds to acquire Hunter but why not try at least. 

when your talking millions he could have homes in several states, and spend time in each. imo money talks

[NewColtsFan]

6 hours ago, Hoose said:

Mitchell has gotten more interesting the more I’ve studied him. He could be special. I’ve been on the Thomas,Jr. bandwagon but if the Colts could nab an extra 2 for a slight move down and get Mitchell? Count me in. 

Regarding moving down a little and getting an extra 2,  I don’t think that’s at all possible.   Getting an extra 2 from trading down from 15 would require a trade down into the 2nd round.   
 

Trading down a little from 15 would likely only get you a 4.  If you’re extremely lucky, maybe a 3.   
 

Historically, this trade has always stuck with me.  Dallas was picking 18 and traded down 13 spots to pick 31 and only received a 3.   So if doing that only got Dallas a 3,  it’s hard to see the Colts moving down a little (less than 5 spots) and getting a 2.  

[AwesomeAustin]

I don’t see them cutting Mo Alie Cox this late in the game. I could have seen it at beginning of league year if they needed the cap space. Ballard typically does right by the players and not giving Mo the best chance to sign with a team for market value isn’t a Ballard type move unless requested by player. A trade or extension seems more likely than being cut. I do think he is way over paid so who knows. 

[stitches]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What metrics are those? Honest question because I'm curious, not trying to make a point. The 1.8% catch rate looks good... 

Not certain but I think his yards per route run are kind of low. To me it's kind of weird to take the yards stats of both of their receivers seriously when I know Ewers was the one throwing them the ball. I don't like him at all.

 

Another example For Worthy - only had 6 catches over 20 yards this year... And his y/reception have been really low for someone who is supposed to be a deep threat receiver, too... 

 

I feel like with both of them the stats don't do them justice and you have to watch them play to make your mind about what kind of a receiver they are...

 

Edit: here's the numbers 

 

 

 

[Hoose]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Regarding moving down a little and getting an extra 2,  I don’t think that’s at all possible.   Getting an extra 2 from trading down from 15 would require a trade down into the 2nd round.   
 

Trading down a little from 15 would likely only get you a 4.  If you’re extremely lucky, maybe a 3.   
 

Historically, this trade has always stuck with me.  Dallas was picking 18 and traded down 13 spots to pick 31 and only received a 3.   So if doing that only got Dallas a 3,  it’s hard to see the Colts moving down a little (less than 5 spots) and getting a 2.  

You may be right. But the draft pick value chart often goes out the door with first round picks. Example: the Colts’ trade with the Jets ( small move down) that netted them Nelson plus several other high picks if I recall. 

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, Hoose said:

You may be right. But the draft pick value chart often goes out the door with first round picks. Example: the Colts’ trade with the Jets ( small move down) that netted them Nelson plus several other high picks if I recall. 

The Colts traded the 3rd overall pick to the Jets for the 6th overall plus 3 2nd round picks

[Nate!]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What metrics are those? Honest question because I'm curious, not trying to make a point. The 1.8% catch rate looks good... 

 

Ones were able to confirm (heard most of this on a podcast) are yards per route run and contested catch rate are not good. The yards per route run while not terrible, sub-par.  Yards after catch per reception also not great. 

 

AD’s breakout age also concerning as the earlier the breakout the higher the predictor to future success.

 

AD does have a good average depth of target, but that seems completely negated by the above.

 

in contrast, his teammate Xavier shines better on the both the advanced and typical counting stats.  If was gonna bet on one of them, give me Xavier.

 

ideally, we land Brian Thomas but it seems he’s getting steamed up draft boards so what at the onset seemed realistic, now seems less likely

[Solid84]

43 minutes ago, stitches said:

Not certain but I think his yards per route run are kind of low. To me it's kind of weird to take the yards stats of both of their receivers seriously when I know Ewers was the one throwing them the ball. I don't like him at all.

 

Another example For Worthy - only had 6 catches over 20 yards this year... And his y/reception have been really low for someone who is supposed to be a deep threat receiver, too... 

 

I feel like with both of them the stats don't do them justice and you have to watch them play to make your mind about what kind of a receiver they are...

 

Edit: here's the numbers 

 

 

 

Didn't Harrison have a dud throwing him the ball too?

 

Maybe it's more about the usage and routes being called? Not saying it can't be Ewers btw.