WR open percentage vs man coverage (Pierce is at the bottom)

[smittywerb]

37 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Or, Minshew historically doesn't have the arm to attack a great deal of the field. So we didn't get to see what the potential is for anyone in our passing game.

 Yes we desperately need another really quick fast receiver. Let's hope.

Even if he had the arm, is the target open?  Will Levis and the Titans are a prime example of having a qb with an arm with no one open deep to throw it to.  First game he played, everyone drooled over him.  After that, nothing because defenses adjusted and covered deep.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

6 hours ago, ArmchairQB said:

Which just furthers my point that these types of metrics provide incomplete pictures.

It's always every little thing, and many different things adding detail to the complete picture. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 hours ago, smittywerb said:

 

Yup, I honestly don’t know where people were seeing Pierce getting open because eye test told me he wasn’t.

 

im going to sound like a broken record here, but this chart shows me there are 2 problems here.

 

1.  We don’t have dynamic receivers.  If Pierce is taking his man and sometimes a safety out of the way, then where are the other receivers and tight ends?  We don’t have another player that can beat their man quickly down the field.  Short yardage, sure, but no one who can eat up those medium to deep yards. 
 

2.  Pierce needs to improve his route tree.  This is why I don’t think Pierce is the answer.  He’s predictable.  He’s either running a streak or a deep post.  That’s it.  Having AR is not going to make him better because HE’S not better.  

There has been plenty of all 22 tape showing him open. Even Matt Ryan when he was in the booth pointed it out during his second game doing colts.

[DougDew]

I would think the stats are self-explanatory...as well as the cherished D-Hopkins losing a bit with age.  

 

BTW, if AP runs a lot of decoy routes, do you think DBs know the Colts do that? And, don't cover him as well as if they thought he was going to be targeted?  Looser coverage probably allows AP to look more "open" to the amateur looking at All-22.

[husker61]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

I would think the stats are self-explanatory...as well as the cherished D-Hopkins losing a bit with age.  

 

BTW, if AP runs a lot of decoy routes, do you think DBs know the Colts do that? And, don't cover him as well as if they thought he was going to be targeted?  Looser coverage probably allows AP to look more "open" to the amateur looking at All-22.

if they aren’t covering him intentionally, wouldn’t a good coach exploit this? Weather it’s the coach or the qb, it isn’t pierce’s fault he isn’t thrown to!

[NewColtsFan]

This entire thread is about Pierce vs Man Coverage.  
 

That leads me to this question….  How much Man coverage did the Colts face this season?   Anyone know the stats on this?   
 

 

[BLUESHOECREW]

Josh Reynolds, if he hits the open market, would be someone the Colts might want to try to sign. He’s a similar WR as Downs and McKenzie, having a slight edge over Downs for 3rd WR. (assuming the Colts sign Pittman to a multi year deal or franchise tag him for next season) This would add another slot level playmaker and depth to WR list while the chance to select a top CB and solid defensive linemen in first 2 rounds and potential top 5 RB in this draft, allowing Moss to walk, in the 3rd. Then sign Moore and Blackmon to cap friendly multi year deals and let Stewart(it pains me to say this) and Lewis hit the market. With day 3 picks hit on a couple key contributors on either side of the ball and a solid special teams player or 2 and the Colts would be in position to sign a few decent one year veterans, preferably from winning franchises, for depth issues and leadership and they would be more flexible offensively and fixing the d’s coverage issues and more depth and staying healthy, would be cap realistic and responsible moves to a playoff caliber roster, with oozing potential from almost every level on both sides.

[DougDew]

10 hours ago, husker61 said:

if they aren’t covering him intentionally, wouldn’t a good coach exploit this? Weather it’s the coach or the qb, it isn’t pierce’s fault he isn’t thrown to!

Sure.  I'm just saying that if the offense purposely uses him as a decoy, it doesn't really matter how "open" he looks on All-22 because everybody on both teams knows he's not getting the ball.  If the Colts burn other teams at some point, defenses will then start defending him like he's not a decoy anymore.  I'm not the one saying ...but...but...but...he's a decoy.

 

And I don't believe its Minshew's arm strength.  I doubt that Brock Purdy has a much stronger arm, but yet both Deebo and Aiyuk have plenty of production. 

 

And Hurts' arm isn't the strongest either, and there is Brown and Donte who seem to get production, in what is supposed to be the same offense as the Colts.  I don't see the coaches choosing to use Smith as a decoy to open things up for Brown.  That would seem to be a stupid waste of a pick #8 talent (that you traded a pick to move up several slots to get him).

 

Since I don't care to either defend or attack AP, I'll just default to the simple position that if he's not getting production, its probably because he's not that good, and him only being used as a decoy (if that's the case) is because that's about all he's good for at this point..  But he's only a second year player, who has traits and a ceiling....you know.