AFC South and AFC Playoff picture/ Remaining Schedules (MERGE) Updated OP + on page 61 - post week 17. AFC Clinching Scenarios page 61

[w87r]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

That scenerio could go the other way if jags go 0-2. Colts then just have to beat the Texans.

I put that at the bottom of the post.

 

 

Colts win division either way if both go 1-1 and Jags 0-2.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Here is the really good thing. We don’t have to worry about Dolphins sitting anyone next week. That game will matter no matter what the ravens and dolphins do this weekend. Will be for the first seed or division.

[w87r]

6 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Here is the really good thing. We don’t have to worry about Dolphins sitting anyone next week. That game will matter no matter what the ravens and dolphins do this weekend. Will be for the first seed or division.

If Bills lose to the Patriots and the division will be wrapped up, but that puts the Bills at 10-7 best, possibly even 9-8 finish.

 

 

As Dolphins still might be playing to have homefield, as Chiefs have h2h tie breaker on them.

 

Win, wins for the Colts. Hopefully we can do some of that for ourselves.

 

 

@Superman

 

You should check out the NYT playoff predictor. It's pretty nice.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, w87r said:

If Bills lose to the Patriots and the division will be wrapped up, but that puts the Bills at 10-7 best, possibly even 9-8 finish.

 

 

As Dolphins still might be playing to have homefield, as Chiefs have h2h tie breaker on them.

 

Win, wins for the Colts. Hopefully we can do some of that for ourselves.

 

 

@Superman

 

You should check out the NYT playoff predictor. It's pretty nice.

I don’t think Bills are losing to the Pats. 

[w87r]

I know this is the AFC, but the NFC has some interesting action up top.

 

 

Currently the Eagles and Lions are tied and down to the SoV tie breaker for the #2 seed.

 

 

Currently the Eagles have it with .479

Lions have a .436

 

 

Eagles play Cardinals and Giants last 2 week

Lions play Cowboys and Vikings.

 

 

That would likely swing SoV into Lions favor. Something to keep an.eyw on.

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think Bills are losing to the Pats. 

Did you think the Broncos were?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

It’s going to be interesting what time they put all these games on next week. Imagine if all three AFCs teams are tied still after this week. Almost guarantees colts will stay at 1. All 3 games will need to be on at the same time.

1 minute ago, w87r said:

I know this is the AFC, but the NFC has some interesting action up top.

 

 

Currently the Eagles and Lions are tied and down to the SoV tie breaker for the #2 seed.

 

 

Currently the Eagles have it with .479

Lions have a .436

 

 

Eagles play Cardinals and Giants last 2 week

Lions play Cowboys and Vikings.

 

 

That would likely swing SoV into Lions favor. Something to keep an.eyw on.

Did you think the Broncos were?

Broncos are not that good. 

[w87r]

 

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It’s going to be interesting what time they put all these games on next week. Imagine if all three AFCs teams are tied still after this week. Almost guarantees colts will stay at 1. All 3 games will need to be on at the same time.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Broncos are not that good. 

 

Also, the Patriots already beat the Bills once this year, don't count them out. That defense will keep them in it.

 

 

Bill is lowering their draft pick going out the door.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

15 minutes ago, w87r said:

 

 

 

 

Also, the Patriots already beat the Bills once this year, don't count them out. That defense will keep them in it.

 

 

Bill is lowering their draft pick going out the door.

At Buffalo and how Bills are playing I don’t see it. Of course anything can happen. Bills are on a mission. They have extra rest too.

[w87r]

Here's another scenario

Lose to Raiders, Win against Texans

 

 

Week 17:(would need)

Seahawks to beat Steelers

Chiefs to beat Bengals

Broncos to beat Chargers 

 

Week 18:(would need)

Broncos to beat Raiders

 

 

Rather easy (not many things) scenario here.

[w87r]

One more this is:

Lose to Raiders, win against Texans and Raiders beat Broncos in week 18.

 

Would need:

Week 17:

Patriots to beat the Bills

Chiefs to beat the Bengals/ or Steelers beat the Seahawks 

Broncos to beat the Chargers 

 

Week 18:

Browns to beat the Bengals

Dolphins to beat the Bills

 

[RollerColt]

1 hour ago, lester said:

 

If its the Browns, I think we WANT the browns. We owe them.

We sure do. I don’t think we’re winning the division though. I think the Texans might be the ones to take it now. CJ should be back and Collins as well. 

[RollerColt]

41 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It’s going to be interesting what time they put all these games on next week. Imagine if all three AFCs teams are tied still after this week. Almost guarantees colts will stay at 1. All 3 games will need to be on at the same time.

Broncos are not that good. 

Plus they’re going to trot out Stidham… I don’t see him as their savior to make the playoffs.

[runthepost]

Josh Allen is hanging 40 on the Pats we can end this talk of the Bills losing

[w87r]

11 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Plus they’re going to trot out Stidham… I don’t see him as their savior to make the playoffs.

They play the Chargers and Raiders, who both have backup QBs as well.

 

Those games are easily winnable.

 

Not that it will get THEM to the playoffs, but it can help US.

[w87r]

27 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Josh Allen is hanging 40 on the Pats we can end this talk of the Bills losing

Never hung 40pts up on them in the regular season before. Did so once in the playoffs('21) though.

 

 

Regular Season Stats vs Patriots:

5-5 all time record against the Patriots.

 

He has scored less than 20pts (4) times

Less than 30pts (7) times

Less than 40pts (all the time)

 

3-2 in home games vs Patriots 

 

 

Don't think it's going to be a walk in the park. Guess we will see soon enough.

[w87r]

don't know if this was posted anywhere.

 

Solid.

 

 

[The Sleeze]

I've been running through playoff machine simulations and it looks like there is a way the Colts can clinch a playoff spot this week. 

Colts beat Raiders and

Browns beat Jets ✓

Ravens beat Dolphins (at Bal)

Bills beat Patriots (at Buf)

Titans beat Texans (at Hou)

Seahawks beat Steelers (at Sea)

Chiefs beat Bengals (at KC)

Broncos beat Chargers (at Den)

 

*Only one road team would need to win (Tenn)

 

If it's wrong let me know, but it seems like when I put these outcomes in, it doesn't matter what happens week 18. Colts either win the division with a Jags loss/Colts win or get the 7 seed with a Colts loss.

[w87r]

10 minutes ago, The Sleeze said:

I've been running through playoff machine simulations and it looks like there is a way the Colts can clinch a playoff spot this week. 

 

Colts beat Raiders and

Browns beat Jets ✓

Ravens beat Dolphins (at Bal)

Bills beat Patriots (at Buf)

Titans beat Texans (at Hou)

Seahawks beat Steelers (at Sea)

Chiefs beat Bengals (at KC)

Broncos beat Chargers (at Den)

 

*Only one road team would need to win (Tenn)

 

If it's wrong let me know, but it seems like when I put these outcomes in, it doesn't matter what happens week 18. Colts either win the division with a Jags loss/Colts win or get the 7 seed with a Colts loss.

Only puts 94% on NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-ne-17=win&ind-lv-17=win&bal-mia-17=win&hou-ten-17=loss&sea-pit-17=loss&den-lac-17=win&kc-cin-17=win

 

I can get it up to 98% but need easy stuff in week 18 to clinch

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-ne-17=loss&ind-lv-17=win&jax-car-17=loss&hou-ten-17=loss&sea-pit-17=win&den-lac-17=win&kc-cin-17=win&ten-jax-18=loss&ind-hou-18=loss

 

 

Would need:(week 17)

Patriot beat the Bills

Seahawks beat the Steelers

Chiefs beat the Bengals

Titans beat the Texans

Panthers beat the Jaguars

Broncos beat the Chargers 

 

Then week 18:

If any of the following teams win, colts clinch a wild card:

Browns

Broncos

Dolphins

Steelers

 

 

If any (1) of those teams win, not all, just 1 win.  The Colts clinch the playoffs in this scenario.

[w87r]

Simplify it even more.(yet this one is only 82% after week 17)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#ind-lv-17=win&hou-ten-17=loss&sea-pit-17=win&den-lac-17=win&kc-cin-17=win&ten-jax-18=loss&ind-hou-18=loss

 

Week 17:

Colts beat Raiders

Titans beat Texans

Seahawks beat Steelers

Chiefs beat Bengals

Broncos beat Chargers

 

Then week 18:(even with loss)

** same thing, only need 1 of these teams to win

Browns beat Bengals

Broncos beat Raiders

Steelers beat Ravens

 

Just (1) would need to win

 

 

Bottom line is there is so many different ways for us to get in even if we lose one of the last two. I know I've probably posted about 10 different ones.

 

Hopefully we just handle business and win out, take the Division and whoop up on the Browns wild card weekend.

[BCMak24]

5 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

At Buffalo and how Bills are playing I don’t see it. Of course anything can happen. Bills are on a mission. They have extra rest too.

They almost lost to the chargers last Sunday....pats defense is tough so we'll see

[csmopar]

Gonna make this simple, just win the next two and odds are, you’re in

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Gonna make this simple, just win the next two and odds are, you’re in

just win baby

[2006Coltsbestever]

13 hours ago, w87r said:

Simplify it even more.(yet this one is only 82% after week 17)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#ind-lv-17=win&hou-ten-17=loss&sea-pit-17=win&den-lac-17=win&kc-cin-17=win&ten-jax-18=loss&ind-hou-18=loss

 

Week 17:

Colts beat Raiders

Titans beat Texans

Seahawks beat Steelers

Chiefs beat Bengals

Broncos beat Chargers

 

Then week 18:(even with loss)

** same thing, only need 1 of these teams to win

Browns beat Bengals

Broncos beat Raiders

Steelers beat Ravens

 

Just (1) would need to win

 

 

Bottom line is there is so many different ways for us to get in even if we lose one of the last two. I know I've probably posted about 10 different ones.

 

Hopefully we just handle business and win out, take the Division and whoop up on the Browns wild card weekend.

Karma would be us winning the division after getting screwed in the 1st Browns game. Then we play the Browns again (4 vs 5 here), to see who really has the better team. We scored 38 points on them the 1st time and had the game winning stop on defense. They didn't prove anything to me besides having the REFS in their back pocket. I want the same REFS as last game too because I guarantee you, they won't be calling anything on us that is close after what happened. 

[TrueBlue4ever]

The line on the game has not budged this week, I have to think the oline and dline will pull this win out for us!

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, TrueBlue4ever said:

The line on the game has not budged this week, I have to think the oline and dline will pull this win out for us!

We will get this one, next week I am little worried. Stroud has looked better than a lot of past rookies.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This should help the chiefs.

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

This should help the chiefs.

 

 

Chiefs will win 44-10. 

[richard pallo]

Just read an ESPN article on player bonuses.  It looks like Minchew receives a 2m dollar bonus on top of his 3.5m salary if he plays 60% of the offensive snaps for the season.  He’s currently at 83%.  Happy New Year!

[w87r]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Just read an ESPN article on player bonuses.  It looks like Minchew receives a 2m dollar bonus on top of his 3.5m salary if he plays 60% of the offensive snaps for the season.  He’s currently at 83%.  Happy New Year!

He's earned it.

[csmopar]

54 minutes ago, w87r said:

He's earned it.

I would agree. I fully expected by this week to be watching to see which top 5 pick we were gonna get when this season started but somehow we’re tied for the division and waiting to see if we can somehow punch a ticket to the playoffs . 

[GoColts8818]

4 hours ago, csmopar said:

I would agree. I fully expected by this week to be watching to see which top 5 pick we were gonna get when this season started but somehow we’re tied for the division and waiting to see if we can somehow punch a ticket to the playoffs . 

Yeah that’s why I view the Colts as playing with house money at this point.  Of course I want them to get to the playoffs and will be disappointed if they don’t but it’s not going to be like two years ago where it was completely failure if they don’t.  This team punched above its weight all year and that’s something to be proud of and can be built off of rather there is a playoff trip or not.  

[w87r]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:07 PM, w87r said:

Updated Week 17 Standings:

 

* - Still to play

x - clinched playoffs 

 

AFC South Standings:

Jags 9-7, 4-1, 6-5(@Titans)

Colts 9-7 , 3-2, 7-4(Texans)

Texans 9-7, 3-2, 6-5(@Colts)

Titans 5-11, 0-5, 3-8(Jaguars)

 

 

 

AFC Playoff Picture:

x-1. Ravens 13-3, 3-2, 8-3, .529, .517 (Steelers)

x-2. Dolphins 11-5, 4-1, 7-4, .418, .364 (Bills)

*3. Chiefs 9-6, 3-2, 7-3, .502, .452 (Bengals, @Chargers)

4. Jaguars 9-7, 4-1, 6-5, .560, .500 (@Titans)

x-5. Browns 11-5, 3-2, 7-3, .533, .513 (@Bengals)

6. Bills 10-6, 3-2, 6-5, .484, .481 (@Dolphins)

7. Colts 9-7, 3-2, 7-4, .480, .433 (Texans)

 

 

 

 

Still in the Hunt:

8. Texans 9-7, 3-2, 6-5, .476, .450 (@Colts)

*9. Steelers 8-7, 4-1, 6-5, .520, .542 (@Seahawks, @Ravens)

*10. Bengals 8-7, 0-5, 3-7, .556, .517 (@Chiefs, Browns)

*11. Broncos 7-8, 2-2, 4-6, .502, .505 (Chargers, @Raiders)

Updated OP

 

 

 

Raiders eliminated 

[w87r]

Outside of the win, wasn't a very good day for us other scenario wise.

 

 

Now pretty much win and we are in, lose we are out.

 

Tie, probably would sneak us in, even the division if Jags lose.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Is there any scenerio Colts and Texans both get in. I assume Bills will have to lose. Dolphins had some big injuries today.

1 minute ago, w87r said:

Outside of the win, wasn't a very good day for us other scenario wise.

 

 

Now pretty much win and we are in, lose we are out.

 

Tie, probably would sneak us in, even the division if Jags lose.

Steelers and bengals still have to play though.

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Is there any scenerio Colts and Texans both get in. I assume Bills will have to lose. Dolphins had some big injuries today.

Steelers and bengals still have to play though.

No the loser of the Colts and Texans game will be out.

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Is there any scenerio Colts and Texans both get in. I assume Bills will have to lose. Dolphins had some big injuries today.

Bills have 10 wins.

 

 

Win we are in

Lose we are out

Tie we are in, most likely

Tie with Jags loss we are division champs 

[rockywoj]

Really need KC to beat the Bengals.  If that happens, then next week it’s win and in for the Colts.

[TrueBlue4ever]

Playing with House money Baby!! Should be an exciting matchup at Home. Winning Season!!! 2024 we are coming for you!!

[MikChiken]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Bills have 10 wins.

 

 

Win we are in

Lose we are out

Tie we are in, most likely

Tie with Jags loss we are division champs 

What if we lose, jags lose and cincy or Pittsburgh finish 9-8 making a 3 way tie at 9-8 with Texans winning division. I’m assuming Jags would still win 3 way tie?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, w87r said:

Bills have 10 wins.

 

 

Win we are in

Lose we are out

Tie we are in, most likely

Tie with Jags loss we are division champs 

Oh gosh your right.