The +1 Quarterback Series: Part 1 + 2 (MERGE)

[w87r]

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/colts-mobile-qb-impacts-run-anthony-richardson

 

 

Thought this article was very insightful, into what and how Richardson will change our offense and the advantages it presents.

 

 

Snippet from article:

Quote

 

The top five rushers in YPC are QBs or QB adjacent. This includes Taysom Hill (7.1), Justin Fields (6.8), Lamar Jackson (6.8), Josh Allen (6.5), and Kyler Murray (6.3).

 

The four quarterbacks who rank inside the top 10 in missed tackles forced per attempt are Fields (30.3%), Allen (24.7%), Jackson (23.6%), and Hurst (20.6%).

 

The two other factoids that really stand out are that the only quarterbacks with 1,000-yard seasons on record are Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick, and there have been three instances total. Both Jackson and Fields are on pace for it in 2022.

 

Since 2020, there have been a total of 14 individual seasons where a team used their quarterback on 50+ designed rushing attempts. Of those 14 team seasons, 13 of the 14 rushed for more than the league average in rushing yards per game while 12 of the 14 had more yards per carry than the league average in their respective years.

 

Teams that deploy a quarterback in the designed rushing attack (since 2020) average an additional 28.5 more rushing yards per game and an additional 0.43 yards per carry. So while the league has typically hovered around 4.4 yards per carry the last three seasons, teams with a quarterback being used in the design run game are averaging closer to 5.0 yards an attempt on the ground.

Again, it is easy to see why this disparity exists on film. Teams have to account for an 11th player in the run game, which muddies assignments and leads to more space to exploit. In an NFL game filled with elite athletes, extra space created pre-snap is a major bonus:

 

 

[Pelt]

I just hope someone teaches/tells AR that he needs to get down and slide when the defenders get close. Don't want a repeat of Luck.

[ponyboy]

I thought I remembered Bobby Douglas rushing for 1000 yards as QB for the Bears in the early 70s.  I looked it up and he actually rushed for 968 yards in a 14 game season (141 attempts, 6.9 per/attempt, 8 TDs).

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Pelt said:

I just hope someone teaches/tells AR that he needs to get down and slide when the defenders get close. Don't want a repeat of Luck.

They better teach the defenders to slide and get down when they see Richardson coming their way...  

[AKB]

gonna be crazy to see us go from a "sitting duck" to an extremely mobile QB in one season

[Boondoggle]

If they lean too heavily on Richardson's running ability it is going to shorten his career for the short term benefit of helping to move the chains.  What they need to do is give him some film of QBs who scramble to buy time and throw, guys like Elway or Mahomes.  They ran for plus yards when it was there, but generally they were not put into harms way by using their legs to move the offense.

 

Doing that flies in the face of the protections which are in place for QBs in the pocket.  This allows QBs to age into the advanced years where they end up with true mastery of the position.  If the QB is thrown into contact early and often it is much more unlikely he will get to that point in his career.

 

Also and re: history and running QBs there was a time when the forward pass was added to the backfield capabilities.  The NFL transitioned from backfield runs to the forward pass and offenses became much more explosive as a result.  Having that capability is valuable at the QB position but coaches need to be conscientious with it I think because if you have a QB you want to develop long term you are adding a great deal of risk to his playing profile by using his mobility in a RB type role.

 

Fact is the greatest single talent you can have to live long and prosper as a QB in the NFL is super quick processing and great vision so the ball comes out fast to the playmakers.  QB mobility can add room for error if he is coached to use his legs to buy time from the rush for weapons to come open but ideally you protect the QB as much as you can philosophically.  Because the ball in flight will always be faster than any QB can run.  This is why a QB like Tom Brady is the GOAT.

[MB-ColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

If they lean too heavily on Richardson's running ability it is going to shorten his career for the short term benefit of helping to move the chains.  What they need to do is give him some film of QBs who scramble to buy time and throw, guys like Elway or Mahomes.  They ran for plus yards when it was there, but generally they were not put into harms way by using their legs to move the offense.

 

Doing that flies in the face of the protections which are in place for QBs in the pocket.  This allows QBs to age into the advanced years where they end up with true mastery of the position.  If the QB is thrown into contact early and often it is much more unlikely he will get to that point in his career.

 

Also and re: history and running QBs there was a time when the forward pass was added to the backfield capabilities.  The NFL transitioned from backfield runs to the forward pass and offenses became much more explosive as a result.  Having that capability is valuable at the QB position but coaches need to be conscientious with it I think because if you have a QB you want to develop long term you are adding a great deal of risk to his playing profile by using his mobility in a RB type role.

 

Fact is the greatest single talent you can have to live long and prosper as a QB in the NFL is super quick processing and great vision so the ball comes out fast to the playmakers.  QB mobility can add room for error if he is coached to use his legs to buy time from the rush for weapons to come open but ideally you protect the QB as much as you can philosophically.  Because the ball in flight will always be faster than any QB can run.

Oline will benefit from having a mobile QB, but they have to learn his tendencies as well.  They have to learn when he scrambles to buy time vs when he plans to take off.  I can see multiple linemen downfield penalties being called this year.  From what I understand, this kid wants to pass it more than tuck it and run.  Hopefully he keeps that mentality for the first year to see if his targets can find the open spots in the D while he buys time.

[throwing BBZ]

6 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

If they lean too heavily on Richardson's running ability it is going to shorten his career for the short term benefit of helping to move the chains.  What they need to do is give him some film of QBs who scramble to buy time and throw, guys like Elway or Mahomes.  They ran for plus yards when it was there, but generally they were not put into harms way by using their legs to move the offense.

 

Doing that flies in the face of the protections which are in place for QBs in the pocket.  This allows QBs to age into the advanced years where they end up with true mastery of the position.  If the QB is thrown into contact early and often it is much more unlikely he will get to that point in his career.

 

Also and re: history and running QBs there was a time when the forward pass was added to the backfield capabilities.  The NFL transitioned from backfield runs to the forward pass and offenses became much more explosive as a result.  Having that capability is valuable at the QB position but coaches need to be conscientious with it I think because if you have a QB you want to develop long term you are adding a great deal of risk to his playing profile by using his mobility in a RB type role.

 

Fact is the greatest single talent you can have to live long and prosper as a QB in the NFL is super quick processing and great vision so the ball comes out fast to the playmakers.  QB mobility can add room for error if he is coached to use his legs to buy time from the rush for weapons to come open but ideally you protect the QB as much as you can philosophically.  Because the ball in flight will always be faster than any QB can run.  This is why a QB like Tom Brady is the GOAT.

 

Bla black bla

[throwing BBZ]

6 hours ago, MB-ColtsFan said:

Oline will benefit from having a mobile QB, but they have to learn his tendencies as well.  They have to learn when he scrambles to buy time vs when he plans to take off.  I can see multiple linemen downfield penalties being called this year.  From what I understand, this kid wants to pass it more than tuck it and run.  Hopefully he keeps that mentality for the first year to see if his targets can find the open spots in the D while he buys time.

 

 EXPECT him to be well coached.

[DougDew]

Back in 1990....33 years ago, Tom Osborne knew that his QBs were not good enough for the NFL passing game, so he went to a run based offense.   Its not a better offense.  Its an offense you run when the QB is less talented than a normal NFL QB. 

 

The article is propaganda...calling it evolution when its regression.

 

It going back to a quirky offense some colleges ran 30 years ago.......Change that's needed to accommodate the diminishing supply of talented QBs coming out of college.

[Colt.45]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Back in 1990....33 years ago, Tom Osborne knew that his QBs were not good enough for the NFL passing game, so he went to a run based offense.   Its not a better offense.  Its an offense you run when the QB is less talented than a normal NFL QB. 

 

The article is propaganda...calling it evolution when its regression.

 

It going back to a quirky offense some colleges ran 30 years ago.......Change that's needed to accommodate the diminishing supply of talented QBs coming out of college.

 

What is the 'normal' NFL QB?

 

The better offense is the one that scores more points. Sometimes folks forget this.

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

 

What is the 'normal' NFL QB?

 

The better offense is the one that scores more points. Sometimes folks forget this.

A normal NFL QB is a QB that has risen to the NFL level because of his passing prowess.  Abnormal QBs can have success, but success doesn't mean its normal.

 

I simply have a problem with the article describing the change the NFL is going through as "evolution".  Evolution is a word that means a specific kind of change....improvements in sophistication and complexity along with the change....not just change as being adjustments to other things.  If the NFL is going to change away from complexity into focusing more on athleticism, I would call that changing towards the primitive.  Its such an abnormal kind of change that there isn't even a word to describe it.  Evolution isn't the right word.

[Colt.45]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

A normal NFL QB is a QB that has risen to the NFL level because of his passing prowess.  Abnormal QBs can have success, but success doesn't mean its normal.

 

I simply have a problem with the article describing the change the NFL is going through as "evolution".  Evolution is a word that means a specific kind of change....improvements in sophistication and complexity along with the change....not just change as being adjustments to other things.  If the NFL is going to change away from complexity into focusing more on athleticism, I would call that changing towards the primitive.  Its such an abnormal kind of change that there isn't even a word to describe it.  Evolution isn't the right word.

 

Thanks for the detailed response.

Are you an NBA fan or casual follower? If so, what're your thoughts on whether it's evolved and what you feel about perceived evolutions.

[superrep1967]

On 5/29/2023 at 12:29 PM, Pelt said:

I just hope someone teaches/tells AR that he needs to get down and slide when the defenders get close. Don't want a repeat of Luck.

Yeah, Luck was reckless with his body. Which I think shortened his career. He also got tired of constantly rehabbing all the time. Yes, they need to teach AR to slide and don’t take those hits. 

[throwing BBZ]

7 hours ago, superrep1967 said:

Yeah, Luck was reckless with his body. Which I think shortened his career. He also got tired of constantly rehabbing all the time. Yes, they need to teach AR to slide and don’t take those hits. 

 

 Remember Luck didn't know how to slide. Watching him try was cringe worthy. AR will not be dumb enough to consistently hold onto the ball looking to through deep to his favorite receiver and getting pounded on his * for it.

[DougDew]

12 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Thanks for the detailed response.

Are you an NBA fan or casual follower? If so, what're your thoughts on whether it's evolved and what you feel about perceived evolutions.

Evolution means change with greater sophistication and complexity built in as things change.  Progress, so to speak.  

 

I think a better word to describe the Change going on in NFL and NBA would be "iteration".  Iteration means the change happens in a way that finds the best solution for the task at hand....that's it....like how to score more points against the defensive schemes.  Offenses and defenses adjusting to each other is more iteration than evolution.  

 

I don't see where changing from sophisticated passing to simpler passing, then adding in an athletic based run game is progress, so its not evolution.   That kind of change in offensive scheme is just simply a way to address the task of scoring more points against defenses that have been built to stop the pass.

[Moosejawcolt]

17 hours ago, DougDew said:

A normal NFL QB is a QB that has risen to the NFL level because of his passing prowess.  Abnormal QBs can have success, but success doesn't mean its normal.

 

I simply have a problem with the article describing the change the NFL is going through as "evolution".  Evolution is a word that means a specific kind of change....improvements in sophistication and complexity along with the change....not just change as being adjustments to other things.  If the NFL is going to change away from complexity into focusing more on athleticism, I would call that changing towards the primitive.  Its such an abnormal kind of change that there isn't even a word to describe it.  Evolution isn't the right word.

Like Steve Young once said in a qb winning in the playoffs. At some time the qb is going to have to be able to throw the ball. 

[Colt.45]

12 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Evolution means change with greater sophistication and complexity built in as things change.  Progress, so to speak.  

 

I think a better word to describe the Change going on in NFL and NBA would be "iteration".  Iteration means the change happens in a way that finds the best solution for the task at hand....that's it....like how to score more points against the defensive schemes.  Offenses and defenses adjusting to each other is more iteration than evolution.  

 

I don't see where changing from sophisticated passing to simpler passing, then adding in an athletic based run game is progress, so its not evolution.   That kind of change in offensive scheme is just simply a way to address the task of scoring more points against defenses that have been built to stop the pass.

 

When last did the NFL undergo an evolution in your eyes?

 

[Moosejawcolt]

It's simple. Watch Philly last year and that's what we will be playing; the 6 back offence.

[DougDew]

35 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

 

When last did the NFL undergo an evolution in your eyes?

 

I'm not a football historian.  But a big leap probably came in the 1950s when the forward pass was being emphasized and a whole new level of complexity in planning and execution was introduced.  Then another in the 1970's when QBs like Bobby Douglas finally were relegated to dinosaur status.  Then another leap in the 1980s and 1990s when Bill Walsh and his Tree emphasized even more complexity and nuance.  Its probably been more iteration of back and forth and situational strategy from that point on more than its been an evolution as an entire league.  

 

Many things get too complex for their own good and the evolution curve runs out of steam.  The level gets too complex to be sustainable and sort of implodes.  Then "back to basics" rises from the ashes.   The NFL probably has run its course in getting more complex so QBs like AR are probably in the perfect spot to capitalize on the NFLs regression back to basics.

[chad72]

Philly and Bills didn't take that next step till Hurts and Allen evolved as passers. We know the ceiling AR can hit as a runner, the passing ability is the X factor that Steichen is tasked with improving significantly compared to the running prowess. Till that happens, the legs will be the insurance to win games early on in the first year or two. Year 3 is when Bills got Diggs and Philly got A J Brown for Allen and Hurts respectively, and that was parallel with their big jump in passing prowess too, so Ballard has a part to play in it as well to get the right pieces around AR.

[gspdx]

On 5/30/2023 at 5:41 AM, DougDew said:

Back in 1990....33 years ago, Tom Osborne knew that his QBs were not good enough for the NFL passing game, so he went to a run based offense.   Its not a better offense.  Its an offense you run when the QB is less talented than a normal NFL QB. 

 

The article is propaganda...calling it evolution when its regression.

 

It going back to a quirky offense some colleges ran 30 years ago.......Change that's needed to accommodate the diminishing supply of talented QBs coming out of college.

 

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

 

But the point is for AR to develop into a dual threat QB.  If all he was ever going to be is a runner then we can all agree this isn't what we want.  He has shown that he has a very strong arm.  Has some skills reading defenses, and even last year you can see when he starts to move around in the pocket he is still looking downfield to complete a pass.

 

And if he can pick up some drive saving 1st downs or even touchdowns with his legs then I am all in on that!

 

Many people thought the west coast offense was a fad, until it wasn't.  

 

So, we will see if the experiment works out.  If he really becomes a dual threat QB at the NFL level then I wouldn't say there is anything quirky about that. 

[DougDew]

15 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

 

But the point is for AR to develop into a dual threat QB.  If all he was ever going to be is a runner then we can all agree this isn't what we want.  He has shown that he has a very strong arm.  Has some skills reading defenses, and even last year you can see when he starts to move around in the pocket he is still looking downfield to complete a pass.

 

And if he can pick up some drive saving 1st downs or even touchdowns with his legs then I am all in on that!

 

Many people thought the west coast offense was a fad, until it wasn't.  

 

So, we will see if the experiment works out.  If he really becomes a dual threat QB at the NFL level then I wouldn't say there is anything quirky about that. 

Sure.  In the comment you quoted, I was comparing the QBs Tom Osbourne had to run the sophisticated running offense Nebraska had back in the 90s.  Their QBs were not dual threat.  They were runners who threw just well enough to keep teams honest.  It worked in college, but NFL offenses are going to have to be more than that, even if the NFL passing game regresses a bit from the peak of complexity.   I suspect AR is about the NFL version of Tommie Frazier right now, if he had to play in the NFL this summer. 

 

So I agree, its his mastery of the passing game that's going to carry the day.  He has to be more sophisticated at it than what he is now, we all agree on that.

 

That part of his game is what I'll find interesting more than the running and the athleticism stuff.  Good hard legal tackles to the lower leg area usually takes care of that kind of QBing in a few years.

[hoosierhawk]

Don't give up DD. You committed to this going back to old school so in spite of what you see or read never ever admit you may be wrong!!

[Superman]

25 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Thanks for your opinion Doug.

 

But the point is for AR to develop into a dual threat QB.  If all he was ever going to be is a runner then we can all agree this isn't what we want.  He has shown that he has a very strong arm.  Has some skills reading defenses, and even last year you can see when he starts to move around in the pocket he is still looking downfield to complete a pass.

 

And if he can pick up some drive saving 1st downs or even touchdowns with his legs then I am all in on that!

 

Many people thought the west coast offense was a fad, until it wasn't.  

 

So, we will see if the experiment works out.  If he really becomes a dual threat QB at the NFL level then I wouldn't say there is anything quirky about that. 

 

Yeah, this is pretty basic. In fact, the article in the OP is about the designed run game, not about whether a QB should be able to operate as a pocket passer. It's about how this approach bolsters the run game and influences the defense, and it's pretty plain to see.

[sb41champs]

Thanks for sharing this interesting and detailed information.

[AKB]

22 hours ago, DougDew said:

A normal NFL QB is a QB that has risen to the NFL level because of his passing prowess.  Abnormal QBs can have success, but success doesn't mean its normal.

 

I simply have a problem with the article describing the change the NFL is going through as "evolution".  Evolution is a word that means a specific kind of change....improvements in sophistication and complexity along with the change....not just change as being adjustments to other things.  If the NFL is going to change away from complexity into focusing more on athleticism, I would call that changing towards the primitive.  Its such an abnormal kind of change that there isn't even a word to describe it.  Evolution isn't the right word.

isn't 'normal' subjective? especially when discussing what one prefers in a QB?

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, hoosierhawk said:

Don't give up DD. You committed to this going back to old school so in spite of what you see or read never ever admit you may be wrong!!

Huh?  Going back to the days when Paul Hornung ran the Packer offense in the 1960s is not me going back to old school.  Even Norm Van Brocklin before that was a dual threat QB...the NFL has always had them.  I read about them, did you?

 

Drafting Paul Hornung and trying to teach him to throw is not evolution.  Its something tried and failed 60 years ago.  Hornung's running threat did not open up the passing game for Green Bay.  GB's passing game got better when Bart Starr became QB. 

 

The article is merely trying to present its facts in a way that glorifies the modern version of the running QB to try to give them an aura of superiority for those who want to believe that.....as if its some sort of new evolution......when the entire regression is simply an iterative response to modern defenses being staffed in a way that over commits to stopping the pass. 

 

Its plain to see what the article is trying to do.  Even goes so far as to throw in some technical terms and complexity to sell the idea its evolution.

[Boondoggle]

23 hours ago, DougDew said:

The article is merely trying to present its facts in a way that glorifies the modern version of the running QB to try to give them an aura of superiority for those who want to believe that.....as if its some sort of new evolution......when the entire regression is simply an iterative response to modern defenses being staffed in a way that over commits to stopping the pass. 

It is also an end result of the NFL greed for drafting players and how that affected college programs.  This drove the college game to go with athletes at the QB position because of the difficulty of teaching them what they need to teach them and to the level required.  It requires a major investment in time and effort.  So much easier to open up the offense with easy read progressions and run threat.

 

The NFL will always be an easier transition for QBs who can beat you to the edge with their legs.  That slows the rush, they have to think about what they're doing and worry about contain which affects how quickly they can get home.  But the flipside is that at some point if you don't learn how to win from the pocket in the NFL your QB career will be shortened because that is where you get the protections of the game design.  And QBs who deal the ball quickly due to achieving that high level of mastery of the offense are always going to have higher upside than QBs who can only do that with their legs.  Quick distribution to playmakers is always going to be the most important element in achieving high end QB play.

[w87r]

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/1-quarterback-scrambling-sack-negation-anthony-richardson

 

Snippet from article:

Quote

 

Pro Football Focus tracks this number by accounting for how many sacks a quarterback takes relative to the number of times they are under pressure. If a quarterback is getting sacked on 20% or more of their pressures, they are struggling to avoid rushers and negate negative plays. If a quarterback is keeping this number under 10%, they are creating more chances for their offense.

 

Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Ben Roethlisberger are among the quarterbacks that have led the league in this metric in recent years (all with numbers at or around 10%) while quarterbacks such as Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have had extremely high pressure to sack numbers (Fields was near 30% a year ago).

For comparison's sake, Matt Ryan was the fifth worst in the NFL in this metric, taking a sack on 22.2% of his overall pressures last season. Richardson, at the college level, kept this number at just 9.2%. This alone is a massive bonus to an offense that struggled mightily in 2022

 

This is part 2 of the +1 QB series

[DougDew]

22 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

It is also an end result of the NFL greed for drafting players and how that affected college programs.  This drove the college game to go with athletes at the QB position because of the difficulty of teaching them what they need to teach them and to the level required.  It requires a major investment in time and effort.  So much easier to open up the offense with easy read progressions and run threat.

 

The NFL will always be an easier transition for QBs who can beat you to the edge with their legs.  That slows the rush, they have to think about what they're doing and worry about contain which affects how quickly they can get home.  But the flipside is that at some point if you don't learn how to win from the pocket in the NFL your QB career will be shortened because that is where you get the protections of the game design.  And QBs who deal the ball quickly due to achieving that high level of mastery of the offense are always going to have higher upside than QBs who can only do that with their legs.  Quick distribution to playmakers is always going to be the most important element in achieving high end QB play.

Although the pandemic lengthened the college careers for many kids, the prevailing landscape in college ball allows the really good players to turn pro early, so colleges have to have a shortened dumbed down offense to be able to get the revolving doors at QB up to speed quickly.   

 

The Arch Mannings of the world might be able to grasp and run an NFL-close passing game in three years, but most college QBs likely can't. 

 

Also, it seems like a lot of "lesser" colleges are developing better football programs, and there probably isn't enough NFL-type QBs to go around, so colleges have offenses designed for the supply of kids they recruit. 

 

To the bolded, this is exactly how you win football/playoff games.  The athlete needs to be the ball carriers (which include WRS and TEs).  The QB is supposed to be the guy who gets the ball to the athletes.

 

Distributing the ball to various points on the field makes defenses defend the entire field.  OTOH, if the QB is the athlete, its pretty easy to see what player on the field is going to be the threat every play.  No player in the NFL can possibly be that superior of a physical athlete as to overcome the amount of attention a defense can put on that small area of the field...the part right behind the center.   

 

That's what Nebraska ran in the 1990s.  There were really only two ball carriers and every other position player was a support person for those two.  The NFL can't work like that.  Its best to have 5 athletic ball carriers who specialize in being athletes, and then have the one player who specializes in getting the ball to those 5 different athletes.  Its just a smarter way to do it long term, IMO.

 

It doesn't mean that the one ball distributor can't also scramble and run a bit, but that can't be the pillar of the offense, IMO.